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  • The Employment Situation -- May 2020

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. ... (full story)

Added at 8:36am

Added at 8:38am

  • May sees biggest jobs increase ever of 2.5 million as economy starts to recover from coronavirus

    From cnbc.com

    Employment stunningly rose by 2.5 million in May and the jobless rate declined to 13.3% according to data Friday from the Labor Department that was far better than economists had been expecting and indicated that an economic turnaround could be close at hand. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to drop by 8.333 million and the unemployment rate to rise to 19.5% from April’s 14.7%. Stock market futures burst higher following the report and indicated an open of nearly 600 points higher for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The May gain was by far the biggest one-month jobs gain in U.S. ... (full story)

Bean counters didn't do so good.
Oh but, but but...they have such impressive looking statistical proof.
#EURUSD e.p 1.1300 NOW
BUY ....BIG BUY
Quoting swing77
BUY ....BIG BUY
buy what?
Quoting ExpertLevel
{quote} buy what?
buy anything that'll go up, duh!!! if you buy anything that'll go down you just a loser!!
(now, don't ask me what'll go up )
Oh' come on one should not punish his trade mate...
Trump to be re-elected ...
But but ... what about those riots ...
It's the economy, stupid ..
Quoting Mingary
Trump to be re-elected ... But but ... what about those riots ... It's the economy, stupid ..

Not sure what this has to do with this topic. It'd be really nice if people just kept their political opinions on topics that have nothing to do with it. Anywho better than expected numbers.
Quoting ExpertLevel
{quote} buy what?
omg, mr. Expertlevel ....i think you 'r a TRADER not a student
Quoting ExpertLevel
{quote} buy what?
Better buy popcorns than eur/usd
i would sell GBP against usd
Quoting ExpertLevel
{quote} buy what?
buy oil
Quoting swing77
{quote} omg, mr. Expertlevel ....i think you 'r a TRADER not a student
I am surprised you have a red badge and respond like that to people who ask questions.

Buy what?
Prediction was only 10 million out. Whats a few million between friends
Quoting here2there
{quote} I am surprised you have a red badge and respond like that to people who ask questions. Buy what?
i am sorry about that, but i m has write the mean buy before posting #UERUSD
Quoting swing77
{quote} i am sorry about that, but i m has write the mean buy before posting #UERUSD
i think its just easy to make choice, i m traded this
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be first, be smart or cheat
Quoting swing77
be first, be smart or cheat
Well u mean sell Eur ?
Quoting swing77
be first, be smart or cheat
1 - EURUSD has been in an uptrend for a couple of weeks.

2 - EURUSD is already overbought.

3 - Results were good today to USD.

4 - Yesterday ECB statement was not good.

With all that would not be wise to wait to see if the trend changes and then go sell if the pair breaks the 1,30?

I am just questioning, not criticizing your trade.
My brains got inflated like the market .., need drugs
Quoting ruioliveirap
{quote} 1 - EURUSD has been in an uptrend for a couple of weeks. 2 - EURUSD is already overbought. 3 - Results were good today to USD. 4 - Yesterday ECB statement was not good. With all that would not be wise to wait to see if the trend changes and then go sell if the pair breaks the 1,30? I am just questioning, not criticizing your trade.
Chart says , Eur Down ,at least 150 pip in the pocket, specially that Euro recovery will be much worse that USA
glad to see things are going in the right direction in the US
Quoting Ghass1234
{quote} Chart says , Eur Down ,at least 150 pip in the pocket, specially that Euro recovery will be much worse that USA
My opinion is that there is space to go up to 1,10, but the market does not always move as people think it is logic.

At this point, I am not sure if it will go to 1,10 or 1,15.
Yeah but that doesn't explain the 9 million job gains, these scammers probably applied a weird seasonal adjustment to the original number. What a joke and completely contradictory to jobless claims.

puppet show.
Quoting Momofrmnyc
{quote} Not sure what this has to do with this topic. It'd be really nice if people just kept their political opinions on topics that have nothing to do with it. Anywho better than expected numbers.
LOL join the club matey. If you, me or anyone who goes against such posts, this lot of people will brand you, me or anyone as propagandist of any kind, from CCP to whatever they can come out with. BUT FF always have a light handed moderation for their abusive comments against other traders but it you, me or anyone else that are punished by FF.

What a fxxking joke FF has become

On hindsight back to trading - I wonder if the protesters are considered in employment? If yes, that explains the green +ve jump.
Quoting swing77
{quote} i think its just easy to make choice, i m traded this {image}
this look good is it demo or live account ....????
All we need now is a trillion dollar government spending plan on infrastructure and the DOW will break records.
Quoting donroyalfx
{quote} this look good is it demo or live account ....????

mmmm.... a retailer trader buy 20 lot in a bet? Although there is a high chance I might have mistaken this millionaire trader in disguise, if that is the case I apologise sincerely.

Unless I am playing with other peoples money or in demo mode or have a crystal ball. The lot sizes tells a lot of whether it is real or demo
Quoting ruioliveirap
{quote} 1 - EURUSD has been in an uptrend for a couple of weeks. 2 - EURUSD is already overbought. 3 - Results were good today to USD. 4 - Yesterday ECB statement was not good. With all that would not be wise to wait to see if the trend changes and then go sell if the pair breaks the 1,30? I am just questioning, not criticizing your trade.
You are correct in your wisdom and logic.

The difference is that you are thinking as a long-term/swing trading mentality.

I believe (my assumption and I may be wrong) that the trader to whom you were speaking is a scalper/day trader.

Does that make your advice any less valuable? Heck no! I agree with you - let the market come to me, don't chase it.

But just like there are over 31 flavors of ice cream at Baskin Robbins there are many different styles of trading. Heck on a pop like today with 5 contacts....
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Quoting Banditten
glad to see things are going in the right direction in the US
Absolutely they are!

You know WHY the job numbers were so good today? I'll make it a multiple choice ok?

A. The USA is the best most advanced country in the history of mankind so of course it had to happen

B. The USA jobs numbers were reported based on how China estimated their work numbers so this administration was just keeping up with the Xi's of the world

C. The GAO decided that all those protesters in the street were really employed by Antifa so they counted them as employed (at least until the military comes out)

D. The government decided to report job numbers based on theory such as this; given the destruction in various cities we estimate it will take 3 million people to rebuild the business, stores, cars, etc., so the number is actually a "projection" into the future based on past destruction

E. The people at the unemployment office decided to eat magic mushrooms while watching Trading Places and they thought, "Hey let's see if people notice this...hehehe..."

F. All of the above.
The S&P will make new highs next week folks, its gonna happen. Currently going vertical in a wave 3 from that march 23th low, much further to go. it costs you trillions dollars and you need to rig the markets with BS job numbers but mission accomplished i guess
I don't like to leave anything out, so the F
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Absolutely they are! You know WHY the job numbers were so good today? I'll make it a multiple choice ok? A. The USA is the best most advanced country in the history of mankind so of course it had to happen B. The USA jobs numbers were reported based on how China estimated their work numbers so this administration was just keeping up with the Xi's of the world C. The GAO decided that all those protesters in the street were really employed by Antifa so they counted them as employed (at least until the military comes out) D. The government...
E
i think they forgot to put "-" infront of the figure...lol
Quoting fxsport
{quote} You are correct in your wisdom and logic. The difference is that you are thinking as a long-term/swing trading mentality. I believe (my assumption and I may be wrong) that the trader to whom you were speaking is a scalper/day trader. Does that make your advice any less valuable? Heck no! I agree with you - let the market come to me, don't chase it. But just like there are over 31 flavors of ice cream at Baskin Robbins there are many different styles of trading. Heck on a pop like today with 5 contacts....{image}
My comment was in result of the news today, what to expect not only from the news today, but the news yesterday, and even where the price stands now.

I am not a scalper expert, but if I make some trades just to pick a couple of pips, I usually prefer to go with the flow and use a small SL in case it goes wrong (maybe that is why I am not an expert in scalping), but to put all those lots in trades without SL (at least not visible) after does news, I think is quite dangerous.
According to trump press conf they also have 2 million vaccines Ready to go?
Quoting Banditten
According to trump press conf they also have 2 million vaccines Ready to go?
if he specifically spoke of cows, not vaccines, in Spanish
Quoting afevir
{quote} if he specifically spoke of cows, not vaccines, in Spanish
If I understand it correctly FED have some printers that will start printning vaccines when they run out of green ink
Quoting Banditten
{quote} If I understand it correctly FED have some printers that will start printning vaccines when they run out of green ink
following the rule, if Nasdaq went up on COVID-19 now that there is a reopening it would have to go down, but it's not even doing it
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Absolutely they are! You know WHY the job numbers were so good today? I'll make it a multiple choice ok? A. The USA is the best most advanced country in the history of mankind so of course it had to happen B. The USA jobs numbers were reported based on how China estimated their work numbers so this administration was just keeping up with the Xi's of the world C. The GAO decided that all those protesters in the street were really employed by Antifa so they counted them as employed (at least until the military comes out) D. The government...
Sport.. None of the above... none apply....
Because the figures are BS.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...ny-jobs-report
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Absolutely they are! You know WHY the job numbers were so good today? I'll make it a multiple choice ok? A. The USA is the best most advanced country in the history of mankind so of course it had to happen B. The USA jobs numbers were reported based on how China estimated their work numbers so this administration was just keeping up with the Xi's of the world C. The GAO decided that all those protesters in the street were really employed by Antifa so they counted them as employed (at least until the military comes out) D. The government...
Your post cheered me up fx I'm going E
  • Post #43
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:13pm Jun 5, 2020 3:28pm | Edited at 4:13pm
Something doesn't add up here - anyone else noticing this? Every week, Dept of Labor releases number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the preceding week. For the month of May, those numbers were as follows (source - FF):

June 4, 2020 1877K
May 28, 2020 2123K
May 21, 2020 2438K
May 14, 2020 2981K
May 7, 2020 3169K

I'm counting well north of 10M new unemployment claims in total here, and unless these represent a huge time lag between people losing their jobs and filing for unemployment, these are freshly laid off workers. In order for the NFP number to come in at +2.5M, for each of those weeks at least 500K more people needed to be hired than fired.

What am I missing?

P.S. Imagine what happens to the market if BLS admits to actually fudging the report to make Trump look more electable: https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/e...ny-jobs-report (read from table 15 down).
Trump's fake numbers...pandemic has no export and domestic has no confidence to spend money in this difficult time...Trump's fake news and numbers...
Quoting Subdude
Something doesn't add up here - anyone else noticing this? Every week, Dept of Labor releases number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the preceding week. For the month of May, those numbers were as follows (source - FF): June 4, 2020 1877K May 28, 2020 2123K May 21, 2020 2438K May 14, 2020 2981K May 7, 2020 3169K I'm counting well north of 10M new unemployment claims in total here, and unless these represent a huge time lag between people losing their jobs and filing for unemployment, these are freshly laid off...
Since Trump entered the presidency there is nothing that can fit, although we can think that as they told me here that they took him to the bunker a few days ago, it was not because he was afraid, it was because his security team ordered him.
When everything happens, it will be because the teams that surround him that order things
Quoting YYZ
Trump's fake numbers...pandemic has no export and domestic has no confidence to spend money in this difficult time...Trump's fake news and numbers...
Oh! It's Trump's numbers now huh?
Dead cat bounce.

Wait for two months hence - the present jump is due to people forced to go back to work because they have no income - the government has not helped them survive. For them it is either to go back to work and risk getting ill or starve.

The demonstrations risks that the pandemic will flare up considerably and once when people start to die in droves then we'll see the real carnage of the fascist in chief.
I hope y’all happy, the bulls the big bullies. You won again against all odds. Time for you to celebrate your victory, covid’s gone right? It’s all good. Nasdaq at all time peak bravo
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.222.237
Can it be time for the bears to feast?
  • Post #50
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:48am Jun 6, 2020 2:23am | Edited at 2:48am
Quoting Donettie
{quote} Oh! It's Trump's numbers now huh?

Yes, Trump's fake numbers... for election purpose, for denying pandemic with 100K+ dead and millions infected...to be par with china...dark colour protest.....in addition that he is mentally sick...

others think the same

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/here...-reported.html


and another one

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...l-deal-or-head
S&P just got another high, I think is about to fall real soon.. becareful guys
Quoting Guest
Can it be time for the bears to feast?
I think high yield corporate debt is likely the first shoe to drop, garbage bonds have been bought up like hot cakes. Hertz/Neiman Marcus/etc are just canaries in the coal mine.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.115.215
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