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The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading gauge of consumer sentiment, dropped sharply 3.2% in May to 41.8. Since September 2021, the index has remained in negative territory for 33 consecutive months. Optimism among investors declined 15.7% from 54.9 in April to 46.3 in May, while it improved by 9.6% among non-investors, from 36.6 in ...
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Over the past few years, I have published a series of essays assessing where we are in our inflation fight and highlighting some important questions policymakers are facing. My most recent essay was in February of this year, where I questioned how much monetary policy was actually restraining demand. This essay is an update to that commentary, and I now examine the current stance of monetary policy in more detail.1 I will argue that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has tightened policy significantly, compared with prior cycles, both in absolute terms and relative to the market’s understanding of neutral. But I will also observe that the housing market is proving more resilient to that tight policy than it generally has in the past. Given that housing is a key channel through which monetary policy affects the economy, its resilience raises questions about whether policymakers and the market are misperceiving neutral, at least in the near term. It is possible that once the reopening dynamics of the post-COVID economy have concluded, the macro forces that drove the low-rate environment that existed before the pandemic will reemerge, pulling neutral back down. But the FOMC must set policy based on where neutral is in the short run to achieve our dual mandate goals in a reasonable period of time. The uncertainty about where neutral is today creates a challenge for policymakers. post: FED'S KASHKARI: HOUSING MARKET IS PROVING MORE RESILIENT TO TIGHT MONETARY POLICY THAN IT HAS BEEN IN THE PAST post: FED'S KASHKARI: IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HOUSING MARKET RESILIENCE MEANS THE NEUTRAL RATE HAS BEEN PUSHED HIGHER, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. post: FED'S KASHKARI: I QUESTION POLICY RESTRICTIVENESS, GIVEN THE INFLATION DATA. post: KASHKARI: FED MUST SET POLICY BASED ON SHORT-RUN NEUTRAL RATE
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