AU MI Inflation Expectations

After the US jobs report and Fed speak, the market scaled back the odds of a 50 bp cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. It settled last week slightly below a 30% chance. The odds were shaved for the second consecutive week. Fed officials have indicated that the full employment mandate is now of greater significance given its growing confidence that inflation is heading back toward its 2% target. Next week's August CPI and PPI are likely to be consistent with that narrative. Ahead of the weekend, the two-year yield posted its ...

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers says his country is on track for a soft landing as a result of "moderating inflation and a resilient labor market." He also says that the relationship with China can be "complex to manage" but there are "good economic dividends" from engaging with Beijing. Chalmers speaks to Haidi Stroud-Watts on the sidelines of the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit in Sydney.

The expected inflation rate (30-per-cent trimmed mean measure) fell to 4.6 per cent in September, from 4.9 per cent in August. Total pay (30-per-cent trimmed mean) is expected to grow by 1.0 per cent over the next 12 months. The annual trimmed-mean inflation expectation of consumers appears to be on a downward trend, with successively smaller expectations in recent months. Consistent with the moderating effects of the sharp appreciation in interest rates, September’s trimmed mean inflation expectation is well below the value observed ...

AUD futures sink for a second session amid Chinese inflation data. Bob Iaccino has more.

AUD/USD takes a U-turn from the intraday high of near 0.6800 as bulls struggle to cheer upbeat inflation clues from Australia amid mixed China data published early Thursday. However, the softer US inflation and hawkish statements in the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) documents released under the Freedom of Information (FOI) request keep the Aussie pair buyers hopeful. China’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) eases to 0.1% YoY from 0.7% prior, versus 0.3% expected, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) slides to -3.6% YoY compared ...

The combination of the US bank stress, the approaching debt ceiling, and the Fed's opening the door to a pause in rates weighed on risk sentiment and dragged the greenback lower. KBW's indices for large and regional bank shares bled 7.4%-8.0% lower last week to cut through March's lows like a hot knife through butter. Still the price action was constructive ahead of the weekend. US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the X-date when the government's cash runs out and the extraordinary measures are exhausted can be as early as June ...

The expected inflation rate (30-per-cent trimmed mean measure) fell by 0.4 percentage points in April to 4.6 per cent. Total pay (30-per-cent trimmed mean) is expected to grow by 1.1 per cent over the next 12 months. The data show a continued moderation in inflation expectations, with trimmed mean expectations falling for a third consecutive month in April. Trimmed mean inflation expectations are now at their lowest point since early 2022. The results suggest that consumer beliefs about inflation are responding to tighter monetary ...

AUD/USD stands on slippery grounds as sellers rush towards the weekly low of 0.6864, marked the previous day, following a nearly 40 pip of slump on the downbeat Australia inflation and employment numbers. That said, the Aussie pair marked the biggest daily loss in a fortnight the previous day as the US Dollar jumped to a six-week high amid strong US data. That said, Australia’s headline Employment Change offered a negative surprise of -11.5K versus 20.0K expected and -14.6K prior while the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.47% versus 3.5% ...