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Week Ahead: Can the US CPI Do What Payrolls Didn't and Persuade the Market that the Fed Will Deliver a 50 bp Cut ?
After the US jobs report and Fed speak, the market scaled back the odds of a 50 bp cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. It settled last week slightly below a 30% chance. The odds were shaved for the second consecutive week. Fed officials have indicated that the full employment mandate is now of greater significance given its growing confidence that inflation is heading back toward its 2% target. Next week's August CPI and PPI are likely to be consistent with that narrative. Ahead of the weekend, the two-year yield posted its lowest settlement since September 2022 (~3.65%). The 10-year yield settled near 3.71%, ... (full story)