US Prelim GDP q/q

Revised GDP figures revealed that prices heated up in the fourth quarter, providing yet further evidence that inflation is returning before Trump’s tariffs have been implemented, let alone take effect. Core PCE was upwardly revised to 2.7% q/q from 2.4%, or 2.5% y/y from 2.5% y/y. This comes on the eve of a key inflation report from the US, which could easily see markets pour cold water on the single Fed cut that had been pricing in for June this week. chart While growth remained unchanged at 2.3% q/q, it is a slowdown from the ...

The American economy grew at a solid 2.3% annual rate the last three months of 2024, supported by a burst of year-end consumer spending, the government said, leaving unchanged its initial estimate of fourth-quarter growth. The outlook for 2025 is cloudier as President Donald Trump pursues trade wars, cutbacks in the federal workforce and mass deportations. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that growth in gross domestic product — the nation's output of goods and services — decelerated from a 3.1% pace in July-September 2024. ...

Japanese BOJ’s Core CPI comes out in line with last week’s National CPI data. Bob Iaccino discusses how stronger-than-expected CPI data impacts Yen futures, which have been in a sideways correction since their high close on Feb. 21.

After a year of unprecedented scrutiny, the Fed Reserve’s monetary policy committee will again be the focus of market attention on Dec. 18, as it makes its final rate decision for 2024. The question on the minds of investors around the globe is, will the Fed continue the rate-cut path it commenced in September? These three data points will be key to the Fed’s decision.

U.S. PCE inflation heated up a touch in October, in-line with our forecasts and the consensus. PCE inflation increased 0.238% in October up from 0.180% in September with the year-on-year inflation rate increasing to 2.3% from 2.1% in the prior month. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, increased 0.273% at the three-digit level up from 0.261% in September with the year-on-year inflation rate inching up to 2.8% from 2.7% in September and 2.6% in June (the low for the year). No surprises on ...

Revised up 0.2 ppts, 0.2 ppts above consensus. Final sales up 0.2 ppts. GDO rises 2.1% q/q SAAR. chart Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (green), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO based on 2nd release. GDP+ iterated on 2019Q4 GDP level. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (July release), Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations. chart Figure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter growth of GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue square), final sales (red), all SAAR. GDP based on second release. Source: BEA, ...