US Advance GDP q/q

Personal spending jumped 0.9% in March, right in line with the consensus forecast. More encouraging for consumer spending in the second quarter was the improvement in personal income growth to a better than expected 0.6% gain last month. Inflation readings heated up as expected with PCE and core PCE prices rising 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, in line with our forecasts. Real personal spending, after adjusting for inflation, increased 0.2% in March, a slight moderation from February’s 0.3% gain but a solid showing, nevertheless. Goods ...

I do a calculation factoring in all of the deferred layoffs effective October 1. The BEA’s GDP Report for 2025 Q4 dramatically missed estimates of 3.0 percent by GDPNow and 2.8 percent by Bloomberg Econoday. Percentage Point Contributions to GDP Detail • PCE Services: 1.59 PP • PCE Goods: -0.01 PP • Government: -0.90 PP • Residential Investment: -0.06 PP • Nonresidential Investment: 0.51 PP • CIPI: 0.21 PP • Exports: -0.01 PP • Imports 0.18 PP PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures. CIPI stands for Change in Private ...

Second-quarter GDP growth in the US has come in at 3% annualised, above the 2.5% consensus, but a little below our 3.3% forecast. The details show that net trade was the main driver of growth as imports snapped back lower following their first-quarter surge when companies sought to beat the introduction of tariffs. This meant that net trade contributed 5pp to the headline growth rate, but a run-down in inventories, as companies put their first-quarter imports to work, subtracted 3.2pp. Elsewhere, government consumption contributed ...