US ISM Services PMI

Higher energy prices continue to push headline inflation up. And we do not expect to see a meaningful reprieve in the food space either, especially following recent headlines about beef prices. Our forecast for core calls for a +0.3% m/m uptick in May, which would nudge the year-over-year pace to 2.9% – well below headline but moving in the wrong direction for the Fed. Higher jet fuel prices will continue to add to core services, while tight labor markets which keep a floor under wage growth are limiting core services disinflation. ...

Another better-than-expected headline figure… this time it was the U.S. ISM Services PMI, which climbed 0.9 pts to 54.5. The gauge has now held in the expansion zone (above 50) for almost two years. Business activity climbed for a second straight month to 57.7, pointing to stronger demand and higher output. Meantime, new orders jumped to 57.3, suggesting future activity remains healthy. Still, beneath the strong headline, there were a few flashpoints. The Employment Index slipped to 47.9, marking the third straight month of ...

The ISM services index came in a touch softer than expected, but remains at healthy levels, indicating the US, for now, is in a relatively good position to withstand the economic headwinds coming from the Middle East conflict. The headline index dropped from 56.1 to 54 (consensus 54.9). The chart below shows the relationship between the ISM manufacturing and services ISM business activity readings and year-on-year GDP growth. They are currently consistent with the US economy expanding 2.5% this year, which is broadly in line with our ...

The US service economy expanded in March at a slower pace as employment shrank by the most since 2023 and input prices accelerated sharply. The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of prices paid for services and materials jumped to 70.7, the highest since October 2022, according to data released Monday. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The 7.7-point increase from a month earlier was the largest in nearly 14 years, comparable to the change seen in the group’s manufacturing survey. The ISM services index fell 2.1 points to 54, ...

The dominant narrative in financial markets this week was a sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that sent energy prices sharply higher and injected volatility across global markets. Over the weekend, joint military operations by the United States and Israel targeted senior Iranian leadership and key military infrastructure, triggering immediate retaliation from Iran and raising fears of a broader regional conflict. Markets opened Monday with a pronounced risk-off tone as crude oil surged and investors ...