NZ CPI q/q

Volatility seems assured in the monthly Selected Price Indexes. There was a bit more of it in today’s figures for May. After being surprised on the downside last month, the balance of May price movements was a touch stronger than we had pencilled in. The balance of today’s indicators sees us nudge our Q2 CPI estimate up to 1.5% q/q, from 1.4% q/q. This would see annual inflation at 4.1% in Q2. Today’s data supports our view that Q2 CPI inflation will be no higher than the RBNZ’s 1.6% q/q and 4.2% y/y projection in its May MPS. Of ...

Annual inflation, as measured by Statistics NZ's consumers price index (CPI), remained at 3.1% in the March quarter for the second consecutive quarter, continuing to be a touch above the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) 1% to 3% target range. Electricity – up 12.5% – was the largest contributor to the annual inflation rate. Statistics NZ prices and deflators spokesperson Nicola Growden said this was the third quarter in a row electricity was in this position. “Higher electricity prices accounted for more than a tenth of the 3.1% annual ...

The chances of a 2026 rate hike rose significantly today with annual CPI inflation rising to an eighteen month high of 3.1%. We think our new laser-focussed-on-inflation RBNZ Governor will not be amused. To start with, the quarterly increase of 0.6% was a big miss for a central bank that was forecasting 0.2% for the period. The miss was greater on tradables than non-tradables but both came in higher than anticipated. Tradables rose 0.7% against a 0.1 pick and non-tradables 0.6% against a 0.4% prediction. The miss is one thing but ...

Inflation in New Zealand has reaccelerated, climbing to 3% annually and hitting the upper limit of the RBNZ’s target band. However, underlying measures continue to soften, leaving room for further rate cuts. Markets are betting on another 25bp move in November, but with NZD/USD showing tentative signs of bottoming, traders face two-way risks in the days ahead. Headline inflation rose 1% for the quarter and 3% over the year, the latter in line with both market expectations and forecasts issued by the RBNZ two months ago. The annual ...

Inflation has edged to a 15-month-high on the back of higher rents, rates, electricity, and food, touching the top of the Reserve Bank's target band but unlikely to prevent further rate cuts. Stats NZ said the consumer price index rose 1.0 percent in the three months ended September, pushing the annual rose to 3.0 percent from 2.7 percent, the highest since June last year. The 11.3 percent rise in electricity prices was the single biggest contributor to the annual increase. "Annual electricity increases are at their highest since the ...