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post: Fed’s Barkin: Inflation Data This Year “Disapppointing...Job is Not Yet Done” Barkin: Confident That Current Restrictive Level of Rates Can Curb Demand Enough to Bring Inflation to Target Barkin: Data “Whiplash” Confirms Value of Fed Being Deliberate post: FED'S BARKIN: I DON'T SEE THE ECONOMY OVERHEATING, BUT THE FED KNOWS HOW TO RESPOND IF IT DOES.Barkin: Navigating Data Whiplash Thank you for that kind introduction and for having me here today. I thought I would speak about the economy and where it may be headed, and then I look forward to your questions and input. I caution you these are my thoughts alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee or in the Federal Reserve System. Contrary to most forecasts, including my own, the economy finished 2023 in a good place. Headline inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, dropped all the way to 2.6 percent by year-end. For the final seven months of the year, annualized core PCE came in just under our 2 percent target. At the same time, despite higher interest rates, global conflicts, and banking turmoil, economic growth was healthy at 3.4 percent, and unemployment remained near historic lows. But early 2024 inflation data has been disappointing to those who thought that the inflation fight was behind us. In the last three months, quarter-over-quarter core PCE inflation rose to 3.7 percent annualized. Headline rose to 3.4 percent. That number, fortunately, is nowhere near the 7.1 percent headline inflation we saw in June 2022 but does remind us that the job is not yet done. Demand remains robust. While the headline first quarter GDP number came in lower at 1.6 percent, it was held down by the volatile cate
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Ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the dollar from down under has been getting stronger. Of course it was aided a bit last Friday by some weakness in the greenback after the disappointing jobs numbers. But the rock-solid market consensus on the RBA holding fast once again has started to shake. While it’s still very unlikely ...
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