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  • #2,681
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:55pm Jul 24, 2013 5:55pm
Quoting rehab
Hi, have been away on vacation. I am still short UJ and UC. IMHO there is still chance for the US$ to fall. Cheers

Welcome back Rehab.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,682
  • Jul 25, 2013 1:10am Jul 25, 2013 1:10am
Thanks Olu! I see your arguments and I totally agree with you technically-but my gut feeling tells me no , it is not yet the time to buy. My experience is few and this gut feeling can just be cause I am tired: it is holidays time and I will be on and off till September . Happy summer everyone!
  • #2,683
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:24am Jul 25, 2013 2:24am
Quoting rehab
Thanks Olu! I see your arguments and I totally agree with you technically-but my gut feeling tells me no , it is not yet the time to buy. My experience is few and this gut feeling can just be cause I am tired: it is holidays time and I will be on and off till September . Happy summer everyone!
I hear you Rehab. I dont think the turn in the $ will be on a dime - we will get a lot of back and forth price action before it is all said and done. Gut feeling is good if it has been honed and sharpened by experience. Have a great 'in and out' holiday period.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,684
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:48am Jul 25, 2013 8:48am
Hi Olu & 9/5 'rs,

Wanted to put up on the radar screen ITB, home builders etf.

ITB had a great run for awhile and found resistance at a nice 50% pull back around $25/$26 area.

Puts are cheap and I have been loading up on Jan 14 options.

A break of the line in the sand on a weekly close will be very, very nice.

Do your own DD.


humble golfer
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  • #2,685
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:53am Jul 25, 2013 8:53am
Quoting golferfx
Hi Olu & 9/5 'rs, Wanted to put up on the radar screen ITB, home builders etf. ITB had a great run for awhile and found resistance at a nice 50% pull back around $25/$26 area. Puts are cheap and I have been loading up on Jan 14 options. A break of the line in the sand on a weekly close will be very, very nice. Do your own DD. humble golfer {image}

Hi Golfer

You are so right. Even one of my favourite leading indicators has turned down again - Lumber. While everyone is saying things are getting better people in the know are selling. I will add ITB to my watchlist. It doesnt look good at all

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,686
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:38pm Jul 25, 2013 2:38pm
UsdJpy
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,687
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:58pm Jul 25, 2013 2:58pm
FXCM USDollar

Rehab - you called this one

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,688
  • Jul 25, 2013 4:03pm Jul 25, 2013 4:03pm
Rough Rice
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,689
  • Jul 25, 2013 4:40pm Jul 25, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting Olu
FXCM USDollar Rehab - you called this one Olu {image}

Thank you Olu, but honestly, it is the first time that my gut-feeling works..it is good to be lazy cause of summer letīs see, the bears are shy. I guess the coming NFP is the one that will decide the true market direction and a lot of volatility that day will be so i need to think, if my positions last till then, what shall i do.
Olu, I have a suggestion: what about if we move on to, instead of just discussing market direction, to discuss trade management? so we share Entry and exit points and adding to positions? I guess analyzing direction and finding trades is the easy part, while trade management is the most advanced and hence may be we have things to share and learn from each other. We can also learn from each other īmistakes by sharing when we do wrong, although it can be quite embarrassing. What do you think? May be we do not need to do that for every trade we do, but we can select the ones we think it is worth to share and follow together..
  • #2,690
  • Edited 4:58pm Jul 25, 2013 4:44pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} Thank you Olu, but honestly, it is the first time that my gut-feeling works..it is good to be lazy cause of summer letīs see, the bears are shy. I guess the coming NFP is the one that will decide the true market direction and a lot of volatility that day will be so i need to think, if my positions last till then, what shall i do. Olu, I have a suggestion: what about if we move on to, instead of just discussing market direction, to discuss trade management? so we share Entry and exit points and adding to positions? I guess...

That's fine by me Rehab. By the way I dont know what happened to the $ it is retracing earlier falls...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,691
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:04pm Jul 25, 2013 5:04pm
MHO on FXCM $index
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  • #2,692
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:14pm Jul 25, 2013 5:14pm
UJ: I never did well by adding to positions, letīs see this time: I am thinking to add on the retrace to 99.5. It is risky as for the bears to control, they need to close on a daily base below 99. Alternatively is to put a sell order below 99 but I do not work on breakout. So, I put an entry order with a half position. My exit is for now as indicated, but that might change depending on TA.
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  • #2,693
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:33pm Jul 25, 2013 5:33pm
Hi Rehab

I see your point on the FXCM Dollar index. Price has retraced in a manner that looks like selling exhaustion. We'll see in the morning. I am looking for $ long positions

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,694
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:35pm Jul 25, 2013 5:35pm
UsdCad
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,695
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:49pm Jul 25, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting Olu
UsdCad {image}

Yes, I saw that UC is forming like a double bottom but i didnīt see the divergence, thanks for bringing it up...we will see what tomorrow shall bring..good luck (BTW: My short UC is at BE and will leave it as is)
  • #2,696
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:15am Jul 26, 2013 9:15am
Usdjpy

Abenomics is working
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,697
  • Jul 26, 2013 9:23am Jul 26, 2013 9:23am
Quoting Olu
Usdjpy Abenomics is working {image}
The UC did not drop (neither the EU nor the GU), this means a general strength of the Yen rather than a weakness of the dollar. My Add-to-position entry on UJ was not filled but in the morning I opened a sell GJ (although nowadays I do almost nothing of J crosses but it was tempting). i guess the UJ needs to close below 98.15 to ensure the bears to keep in control. Letīs see, the situation is delicate IMHO
  • #2,698
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:24pm Jul 26, 2013 12:24pm
Hi Rehab

I have a small long usdcad stop below 1.0250 which is still in play. Will look at all the usual markets this weekend but I think we are close to a bottom in the US$

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,699
  • Jul 26, 2013 12:43pm Jul 26, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting Olu
Hi Rehab I have a small long usdcad stop below 1.0250 which is still in play. Will look at all the usual markets this weekend but I think we are close to a bottom in the US$ Olu
I am not sure, I have difficulties decide during intraday-I will wait just before the day close (as is Friday) to decide what to do with my positions. Good luck with your short UC, although if you have luck it means I will have bad luck
Cheers!
  • #2,700
  • Jul 26, 2013 1:49pm Jul 26, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} I am not sure, I have difficulties decide during intraday-I will wait just before the day close (as is Friday) to decide what to do with my positions. Good luck with your short UC, although if you have luck it means I will have bad luck Cheers!
Same here Rehab. End of the day is the best time for me to assess things. I am not good intraday

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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