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XXX Confluence Scalping Method

  • #41
  • May 4, 2009 1:51pm May 4, 2009 1:51pm
Tex,

Looks like you're in the money at the moment. As a general rule I don't trade crosses with this strategy, only the majors. The reason is because there are far more eyes on the levels in the majors than the crosses, which are a synthesis of two major pairs. I will trade the crosses primarily on fundamentals. Lets say I believe the pound will go depreciate and the yen will appreciate. I will sell the GBPJPY because even if I'm half wrong I could still make some pips. Personally, I think the AUD will go up farther and the CAD is overbought, so it wouldn't be a trade I would take. But its working so far.
  • #42
  • May 4, 2009 11:02pm May 4, 2009 11:02pm
hello H, Made very little..I will stick with the majors since they tend to move better. Thanks, Tex
  • #43
  • May 6, 2009 12:21am May 6, 2009 12:21am
Hey H, What do you think about the usd/jpy and correct me if i'm wrong in your assessment. Here is what i'm seeing. The sellers could be unloading at 98.00 ish. I see selling opportunities from 98.50 to 99.00(.SR at 98.57ish) (38.2 fib at 98.54) - ok i have 2 sets of weekly pivots one at 98.50 and the other at 98.20 -( monthy pivot at 98.63) If this price continues below 98.00 from this time of writing then bets our off. Maybe i'm wrong but maybe we can see a reaction at these levels above I'll try to post a chart later. Good night,Tex
  • #44
  • May 9, 2009 1:58pm May 9, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting tex123
Hey H, What do you think about the usd/jpy and correct me if i'm wrong in your assessment. Here is what i'm seeing. The sellers could be unloading at 98.00 ish. I see selling opportunities from 98.50 to 99.00(.SR at 98.57ish) (38.2 fib at 98.54) - ok i have 2 sets of weekly pivots one at 98.50 and the other at 98.20 -( monthy pivot at 98.63) If this price continues below 98.00 from this time of writing then bets our off. Maybe i'm wrong but maybe we can see a reaction at these levels above I'll try to post a chart later. Good night,Tex
Hi Tex,

I have similar level on my chart. Here's a chart of the 4 hr UJ, and notice the trendline break. If you zoom into the 1 hour chart notice the resistance in the 98.90 area. I'm definitely a seller there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #45
  • May 10, 2009 7:49pm May 10, 2009 7:49pm
Something I am watching... USDCHF

38 fib level, strong resistance, weekly pivot and monthly pivot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46
  • May 11, 2009 1:54am May 11, 2009 1:54am
Hi Someone, That is a good level for sure.I'll keep my eye out and hopefully i'm awake.

Tex
  • #47
  • May 11, 2009 6:06am May 11, 2009 6:06am
Another good level i have my eye on is 1.1630 on the USDCAD.

Weekly and monthly pivot + strong resistance + 50% fib all within 15 pips.
  • #48
  • May 11, 2009 5:46pm May 11, 2009 5:46pm
Someone, very nice spot, I had an order fading the round # in that area but it never dropped that far. I am currently long the USDCAD from 1.1481 when it tested the Nov low of 1.1471. 5 pips drawdown plus spread, 180 pips up at the moment. An interesting habit the CAD has is fading its own extreme points, due to the highly technical nature of its movement.
  • #49
  • May 12, 2009 12:27am May 12, 2009 12:27am
We have a R1 monthly pivot at 5147 -I maybe looking to go short around 5140 to 5150.We also have inside bars on the hourly ... Tex
  • #50
  • May 25, 2009 9:57am May 25, 2009 9:57am
Quoting hxcjf
I generally put it at the place where I no longer believe that my trade idea would be valid....
Hi hxcjf

Just trying to clarify a few points ... ... With the ATR(50) trailing stop loss, would you find the ATR(50) on the 4 h chart as shown bellow, and trail that figure (66pips in this case) for the entire length of the trade, and when you get stopped out then re-assess the new atr value for the stop loss?

Thanks

Adam
Attached Image
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #51
  • May 25, 2009 11:47am May 25, 2009 11:47am
hi hxcjf,
first time applying what you have taught on the euro 4 hr chart & not sure am i doing it correctly....

i see around 1.3815/25 level as good support as it is somewhere at the 38.2% fibo level as well as the weekly pivot....so one can go long here, am i correct?

or shld i be looking further below around the 1.3735/45 level which is the 50% fibo level as well as the daily s3?

sorry but i'm a newbie in fx.
  • #52
  • May 28, 2009 8:38pm May 28, 2009 8:38pm
hxcjf,

I am interested to know if you watch price action around these levels before jumping in or do you just leave your orders there ready from price to pick up?
  • #53
  • Jul 9, 2009 7:52pm Jul 9, 2009 7:52pm
Sorry guys, lots of wedding stuff with my bro and vacation, but I'm back and it looks like these markets are finally shaking loose. Here's three solid levels I see in the USDJPY off a rebound from the panicked selloff. These usually work out pretty well.

I wrote some more analysis on the setup over in the news section: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=181688
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy rebound trade.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #54
  • Jul 9, 2009 8:46pm Jul 9, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting hxcjf
-Trade the four hour chart as your base chart. That's what the money is looking at.
This is the most retarded quote I have ever heard. How would YOU know where the money is looking. Especially since the market is made on tick charts and from the order book, not from a chart representing a time period. If everyone with big money used the 4H chart there would be NO MARKET. This is just a naive quote.
  • #55
  • Jul 9, 2009 11:36pm Jul 9, 2009 11:36pm
I mean the kind of money that causes large imbalances at certain levels, such as institutions and large funds that are trading the kind of size that would cause too much slippage for scalping. You should know that if you're trading tick charts and level II's. Sure there are a lot of players inbetween those areas, but I want to get in where there is a large imbalance that will turn the market in my favor quickly. I'm talking about thousands of lots in one area, and you couldn't scalp with that kind of size with getting your clock cleaned unless its at one of these levels.
  • #56
  • Jul 13, 2009 8:25am Jul 13, 2009 8:25am
Doesn't get much more obvious than this, folks

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=182219
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  • #57
  • Jul 24, 2009 12:49am Jul 24, 2009 12:49am
Love at first sight... Trendline, 50% fib, weekly pivot, and daily S/R.
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  • #58
  • Aug 18, 2009 12:15pm Aug 18, 2009 12:15pm
Keep it goin bud, I like your charts.
  • #59
  • Last Post: Aug 18, 2009 10:23pm Aug 18, 2009 10:23pm
Here's a killer trade I entered on the Dragon...before and after pictures so you know I'm not bluffing after the fact Do these levels work or what?

Posted my analysis here, easier than copying and pasting: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=191666

This was a daily time frame level at 157.50...drawdown at the point was about 8 pips, including spread.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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