Forex - A negative sum game for losers

I'm not particularly against the Crypto Bros, or the young kids trying to make it in this business. But there are no shortcuts. Good luck.

59k seems fair...

Hi

Thanks for the laugh!

Go well / Mos

some parts are not correct. yes, the whole market is negative sum game because of fees. so average trading person is losing. that will not be true for individual person (this 3. level always people missing and make so no arguments about reality for a person) , here depends how different you are against the other persons in the negative sum game ( this is so important, think deep and long about it... if you dont get this point, ask questions for the parts you dont understand or dont see and want discuss about .. because with this starts the learning!).

All parts are correct. People go on retail-FX trying to beat the odds + fees. Simple math.
So you have to make consistently at least somth like +52% just to equalize the odds. Time is the key word.
Making 52% in the long run playing a 50-50 game is definitely utopic. Or moronic? Laughable?

On the other hand, yeah, S&P always grows, no 50-50 game there, in the long run there's only UP.
So there's not so much risk'n there. You just need to be patient.
But what about the crypto bubble? What about the tulip bulbs bubble? What about the suprime bubble? What about the tech bubble?
OK, you, as a trader can make money up and down...
But the trouble with those money games is that when they bursts they fkn drag the whole world down all along with it
History shows. But who gives a fuck?
We just laugh...

So here we go.... the market thinks Strategy is vulnerable...

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/...7e5dd9df8cf727

If logic prevails, a guy who thinks hodling a non productive digital nothingburger with other peoples money is a winning strategy might learn a lesson. The crypto market valuation is not rational.... so I just watch and don't bet on any outcome. Let them play alone and prey on each other till evolution does it's job, as it always does.

Where is Strategy's breaking point? For those with enough liquidity if might be worth testing, so I quess they will.

Hehe, yesterday I was so anxious to buy more of that non productive digital nothingburger because now is 'cheap' ...but I came across some bad news about the future of the blockchain. Jeeez, some credible people I admire recently said that quantum computing is getting closer and closer to fuck all up
So I held my hodl
I've been joking about QC for years, but now it's getting close to my "I told you so" moment.
Hodl seem even more hazy now... but on the short run. Just bought small for the game's sake.
Don't just watch, I mean buying and selling any dog poop asset can make you some real cold cash, right

Just for the record:

Today, US and Israel begun an illegal war with Iran. The US lured Iran into talks to end its uranium enrichment in Geneva Switzerland. While they pretended to reach an agreement or are very close to get one, Israel and the US launched a (highly anticipated) attack on Iran. One of the earliest signs the attack will happen where that flights from Turkey to Theran have been canceled 12 ours before the attack.

The goal: Assassinating its leadership. - The likely outcome: Creating chaos and destruction and mass killing of civilians by spending hundreds of billions of your taxpayer money that could have all been used to make your and the life of your family and neighbours better.

This war has been started again with lies, with breaking international laws, by war criminals. If you are in a negotiation with your neighbour because of a dispute and then the neighbour attempts to kill you 1h after you seemed to have agreed to a solution or are very close to such an agreement, what would you call your neighbour? Do you think other neighbours will join your snake, lying, betraying neighbour in the fight that follows? Do you think others are keen to support such criminals?

I therefore think the prospects for Iranians to topple their regime and build up a better form of goverment under such constraints are not good, but that's anyway not in the interest of Isreal and USA. You know their ultimate goals? Are they in a postion to teach others while the destroy their democracies at home?

There is zero honor in such conduct. Two criminal goverment leaderships use an illegal war to hold on to power, because they would be voted out of office and then prosecuted for all their crimes. So again: "Hey MAGAfucker's, still happy with your peace president? Still in denial you where 100% wrong about Trump and his intentions and conduct? You really want him to continue down that road and make you lose even more?"

Think about it and ask yourself what you personally will gain from it? Let me know what that is, because for me your strategy to still support Trump can be defined as insanity at this point. If you come to the conclusion: Enough is enough, vote blue in November, because most of you will be in the group that benefits the most from a more social political approach to govern your country. Yes, most of you will actually personally gain from it, while billionaires will have to pay for it. Why is that so bad? Are you all billionaires?

In the end it's all up to you on a personal level. Participate and take on responsibility in daily life. Who you vote for, how you spend your money, how you help and treat your neighbours and family, how you hold criminals accountable or normalize their conduct is relevant on all levels. Nobody else will do this for you. You want freedom? Show the world you are still able to handle freedom and act responsible and sustainable.

Today you didn't - you allowed your goverment to start an other illegal war. But you can change for better.... you always can.

If you made it this far in my post, you are officially allowed to skip your Sunday church, because Hudi preached enough for the weekend.... ;-)

Other people who are unhappy that Khamenei is dead: Putin, Xi, Kim Jong Un, the houthis, hezbollah, what's left of hamas, and Maduro, although he too is the victim of one of Trump's illegal actions. Who else thinks the world is a smaller, less significant place without the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

Fees do make the average outcome worse, but a trader with real edge and disciplined risk control can still outperform that drag over time

True sentence.
But a retailer can't stay at some real edge in the long term in any 50-50 game.
Mathematically, is impossible. Even the FX brokers' statistics tells that in your face. It's fkn roulette. Even worse.
But sure, advocates tells otherwise.

Illegal war?
The Law is not the final criterion for what is Right. In Russia the law forbids the freedom of speech.
Fuck the Law if is unjust ! Human Rights are Right!


Otherwise, yeah, Trump is fuckin' insane ...the same Old Big Orange Crazy Dog fucking the whole world up and down

And a borrowed preach for the record:

Most people don't actually want the truth. They want to be right. ...even righteous.
And if the truth gets in the way of being right, their minds will do something odd - they will lock down.
At this point we call it indoctrination.

Indoctrination isn't about what you believe, but on how that belief is sealed off form the rest of the world.
It's a psychological cage where the door in and out stays barred.
Indoctrination works by pre-emptively dismissing any kind of counter-evidence that may come along.
So if somebody does offer a contrary opinion you don't see it as a reason to change your mind.
Instead, you have been trained to view it as a 'test of faith' or as 'propaganda' from an enemy.

The indoctrinated person is not necessarily any less intelligent than anybody else but they are just constantly at war, and they've come to see doubt as a danger.
Indoctrination is kind of defence mechanism where any contrary view is considered to be irrational or even immoral.

The way to resolve indoctrination is not to challange someone or besiege their lock-down fortress, but to offer them an off-ramp.
We need to make the indoctrinated person feel safe and secure enough to doubt, because doubting makes you vulnerable.
Doubting is scary. We need to create the space where doubting is seen as okay.

Chris Ranalli

This is of course correct but if trading with a statistical edge then it means you are not trading with a 50/50 outcome when risk and reward is taken into account.
A 50/50 edge works with a risk reward ratio that is 1:1.2.
Yes it's not a lot but increase that to 1:1.3, 1:1.4 etc etc with the 50% edge and extrapolate further with even better risk/reward ratios.

Hi, Keab! Thank you so much for your lovely candor and innocence! I mean, really, sincere thanks!
I so much need that fresh young heart after more than 12 years of trading FX Thank you!

I've been trading for longer. Opinions eh?

You've been trading for so long and you call the RRR a valid method of creating a real edge ?

To the MAGAfucker Trump Nobel Peace price camp:



https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026...chool-in-iran/

Trump and Hegseth are responsible.
If you then lie about it and blame it on somebody else you square your guilt.

America isn't a trustable partner anymore for any country in the world under a Trump administration.
We should stop pretending otherwise. This is evil conduct - war criminals, sociopaths, morons.

Why is the US military, congress, senate and the US public is going along with such a lie?
If you do, the blood is on your hands as well.

Start an official independent investigation and hold them accountable.

Third term for the Trumpster.

MAGA is stupid fascism.
Religious fanatics are stupid and evil.
Now those sick bastards clash each other...

Total hate is total war.
No rules, no mercy, no peace, no humanity, no life...

Of course they’re not. Otherwise, everybody would trade and no one would do 9-17 office jobs, which like trading doesn’t have any value for the society, just helping you to pay bills. Trading is just another job, better to say another business, for which you need to make certain sacrifices of time, nerves, money, in order to make it work.
P.S great the I decided it’s time to buy btc on the bottom. Seems it slowly recovers…