Someone say that 1 month of live trade is better than 10 years of back-test.Is that true?
Maybe backtest is bad and let's discuss why.
Q1.the data you use for back test is not same as the really market.
A1.that's ture.But you can download the high-quility data form some web like dukascopy,as you trade only 1or2 lots one time and your slippage is not huge with a good broker,I think the back-test can 99% = the live data.
Q2.the over optimization stuffs.let's me explan this first.think about if you go back to 1 year ago and let you trade this year again,will your trade result be great?sure it will be great,yeah?So how can an ea be bad if you optimizate it with the data of last 1 year and back-test with the same data?but as you can never optimizate with data of future,this backtest result do not mean anything.
A2.that's ture as well.But in one hand,we can use backtest to test our system but not to optimizate it,in another hand,we can use WFT to make good use of back test.check this to read detels about WFT:
http://www.multicharts.com/walk-forward-testing/ http://www.tradestation.com/trading-...ward-optimizer
my question:anyone know a easy way to do WFT with MT4?it takes alot of time if done by hand.
Maybe backtest is bad and let's discuss why.
Q1.the data you use for back test is not same as the really market.
A1.that's ture.But you can download the high-quility data form some web like dukascopy,as you trade only 1or2 lots one time and your slippage is not huge with a good broker,I think the back-test can 99% = the live data.
Q2.the over optimization stuffs.let's me explan this first.think about if you go back to 1 year ago and let you trade this year again,will your trade result be great?sure it will be great,yeah?So how can an ea be bad if you optimizate it with the data of last 1 year and back-test with the same data?but as you can never optimizate with data of future,this backtest result do not mean anything.
A2.that's ture as well.But in one hand,we can use backtest to test our system but not to optimizate it,in another hand,we can use WFT to make good use of back test.check this to read detels about WFT:
http://www.multicharts.com/walk-forward-testing/ http://www.tradestation.com/trading-...ward-optimizer
my question:anyone know a easy way to do WFT with MT4?it takes alot of time if done by hand.