Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog

Hello everyone,

We are here to continue a journey that started elsewhere.
The purpose of this thread is to further explore the ability to rationally and consistently predict major SWING points in Forex trading.

We all know that ZigZag indicators are lagging, repainting and thus not very good for entry points for successful trading.

Some of us (and I sure hope they’ll join us here) started a journey based on analyzing FRACTALS, ZIGZAG legs and all that is within it and their internal relationship. Using massive historical data, statistical tools, and filtering we got to a point that most of the active members are getting meaningful results.

We want to continue this in a much more coherent and controlled way – so this 1st post will always include latest and updated DOCS, Indicators and references to major post issues within that forum and external links.
Later on I’ll post guidelines for my current algo just as a baseline to avoid repeated questions, but feel free to suggest variations on the subject.

Ahhh…and what about the “Pissing Dog” that’s on the title of this forum thread? – well, dogs have the tendency to piss on every tree and POST that is on their way. Not because they have to or want to contribute something - it’s just to let out a few drops of urine, leaving pieces of their DNA - in order to say “hey, look, I’ve been here…”. And what is that have to do with Forex or trading or sharing? To tell you the truth, the ultimate truth - Nothing, really.

Let’s roll our sleeves and start...

G.

**Note: This is a "work in progress" - so don't ask for finished, working indicator/EA.

Index:
Purpose & Background (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7188904#post7188904):

Creating SET1: (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7189530#post7189530)
Creating SET2: (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7189894#post7189894)
Creating SET3: (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7189951#post7189951)
The Logic: (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7190111#post7190111)
Current Status: (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7192811#post7192811)
Adaptability: (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7218910#post7218910)

Handling Prediction errors: (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7249372#post7249372)

Contributions:

Getting_fractal_zz_candle_data.zip v1.3 - include Doc, EA & indicators - bug fixes - by smallcat (http://www.forexfactory.com/smallcat)

Probabilities.doc - How-to: Calculating Probabilities (DOC format) - by crodzilla (http://www.forexfactory.com/crodzilla)

Probabilities.pdf - How-to: Calculating Probabilities (PDF format) - by crodzilla (http://www.forexfactory.com/crodzilla)

Database & MQ4: - Tools and methods to connect MQ4 and external database (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7197052#post7197052) - by go4it (http://www.forexfactory.com/go4it)

MSSQL & MT4: - http://www.tradingapi.net/mt4-mssql-api

Sample Screenshots: - Post#186 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7205629#post7205629), #187 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7205638#post7205638), #189 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7205653#post7205653), #190 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7205659#post7205659), #191 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7205665#post7205665), #192 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7205674#post7205674)- by thoughts (http://www.forexfactory.com/thoughts)

About Total Length calculation: - here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7206574#post7206574)

script which writes all of the combinations: - Post #252 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7221666#post7221666) - by One day! (http://www.forexfactory.com/member.php?u=111000)

FractalDNA.PDF (without error prediction for now) is here (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1378586&d=1393811098) - by flx23 (http://forexfactory.com/flx23)

"Double within a month" (or not...) - Posts: #309 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7236830#post7236830), #343 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7241989#post7241989), #346 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7243144#post7243144), #356 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7248088#post7248088), #403 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7264413#post7264413), #414 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7273272#post7273272), #443 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7281111#post7281111), #450 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7284757#post7284757), #474 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7308818#post7308818), #535 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7364340#post7364340)

Fractals, ZZ and the Renko - Post #611 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7416197#post7416197)

Hi G,

Followed your last thread now looking forward to the continuation with this one, keep up the good work!!

If this is going to be even remotely as good as the "Killing Zone" thread, then its going to be worth printing and keeping.
Keep up the great work G.
It is very much appreciated.
Paul.

I Love DNA!

Let's Go!... G!...Get this party started right!! You know we here for you!!!

Let me in, with wide open ears...for now

Our target is to find major SWING points in the forex market, to pinpoint accurately entry and exit point for trading.

Background

Unlike gambling, lottery, Coin toss, etc. which are (hopefully) purely random - the Forex market is biased.

It does have a "memory" and it’s based on needs, speculation, and human behavior.

No one here (I hope) is looking for 100% sure "bet". Just to learn a bit more on Forex and its internal "DNA" - and maybe to get a little "edge".

We know that the ZigZag indicator (ZZ) best describe those SWING points, but it does it in retrospect. For real-time trading it is lagging and repainting itself making it quite useless for accurate entries and exit in trading.

We came out with an idea to analyze each ZZ leg by its FRACTALS and regular bars in an attempt to find consistent, repeatable patterns. If we can find those patterns – we can PREDICT where the ZZ leg will, or should be.

Important note: Since we are using PATTERNS to predict next swing point – it might not be exactly as the ZZ point – because we are predicting by PATTERNS - and the ZZ by actual PIPS.

Another difference between our Pattern prediction and ZZ is that ZZ is looking for “highest high” and our pattern is looking for potential best trading entry.

Why FRACTALS?

The whole idea of fractals is about patterns that repeat themselves on larger and smaller scales.

If the Fractals , or DNA, theories are valid - the DNA sequences should represent themselves within any shape and form.

Since the smallest sequences that we can analyze are the 1 Min. bars - we need to compare their sequences to larger patterns and "filter out" the wrong sequences that doesn't exist in the larger patterns.

Hence the choice of the ZZ leg - to represent the larger pattern that have smaller "sequences" - its fractals.

1 Min. bars doesn’t give us enough time for complicated calculation to predict “Next Bar” – so we chose analysis on the 5Min. TF bars, Fractals and ZigZag’s.

Next post will be on how to start implementing.

G.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmxJ1KDR_s0&feature=player_embedded

I am so glad, and highly expecting that information G ...

Thank you very much for your willing to share ..

-smallcat

Subscribed. You always put up good thought provoking stuff gg53. Looking forward to seeing your ideas distilled in one place!

I can easily predict ... yes that's the purpose of this thread ... that this thread will become one of the most popular on FF ...

G,

I wish you all the success in this leg of your breakthrough journey

into new territory.

Ya ya ya. Subscribed, I love your work because you're always generous about sharing.

I wish you success on your journey to separate the indicator from your database

Good luck!

Intriguing. Subscribed.

Thank you GG for your work here in FF .I am a follower of all open minds here.
Subscribed
..And happy New year all

Goodluck and best wishes G. Let the GJourney begin

Very good again,
very happy to continue this journey.
thank you very much

GG53,

One question/clarification ?

For the prediction of next bar (step 3 of algo) you take only the bars of the actual leg/swing (max 13) or
do you always take the last 13 bars for next, actual and previous.


BR.

emonts,

Let us bring everyone to that level by explaining the methods and logic done so far.
After everything is available to everyone - we'll start answering specific questions.
I think that otherwise this thread will become impossible to follow.

G.

Sounds like a logical plan

FYI, I have a friend from Ireland who is a genius (in the literal sense) and is an expert in AI and data mining. I was speaking to him about this thread and this project I think he could be a TREMNDOUS asset. Has anyone captured the gist of this method etc in a document? I would hate to ask him to read the large thread in order to determine if he would like to help us out. If I could provide him with a logical and organized overview I could present it to him and see if he would be interested in helping us out. He has many years experience and again is a true genius.

Thanks folks! Just trying to help the cause...

sirwolf,

That's exactly what I'm trying to do right now -->> To gather the most recent info into just few posts and indexed documents.
Please be patient, I don't have much spare time - so it might take a while...

G.