Death of the Dollar | Forex Factory

  • Death of the Dollar

    From tothetick.com

    The US currency is shrinking as a percentage of world currency today according to the International Monetary Fund. It’s still in pole position for the moment, but business transactions are showing that companies around the world are today ready and willing to make the move to do business in other currencies. The US Dollar has long been the world’s number one denomination in world currency supply. It represents 62% of total holdings in foreign exchange in central banks around the world. But, it is in for a tough race from up-and-coming strong currencies. The Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan are both giving the ... (full story)

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nanningbob
May 30, 2013 9:13pm
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I have lived and worked in China for the last 12 years. Some good things, some ugly things. The bottom line is no economy can keep growing at a 8-10% clip. China trying to force its economy to keep doing that has left it with some structural economic problems but the new leader is realistic and now hopes to settle more into a 7% growth figure. The reality is China finally had its post war boom. It was denied because of the constraints of Communist economic policy. China will now settle into a more normal 4-7% economic growth pattern over the next several decades. With USA economic recovery its chances of catching us grow dim. Not because of superiority but just basic economic laws. It is unrealistic to think an economy can grow 8% a year on and on and on. It matures and settles into a 3-6% range.

The USA will come out of its economic slump. Too much emphasis has been placed on figures instead of percentages. We are in the 3rd biggest deficit slump in our 200+ year history %debt to GDP. That means comparing percent of debt to GDP we are not even in our worst economic crisis. The civil war debt was overcome by the industrial revolution and the WW2 debt was overcome by the post war boom. Do we have a boom in the future that can over come this one? The answer is yes. The USA has the assets (unlike Greece) to bring things back into balance. 3% inflation average per year for 30 years will bring the debt to gdp ratio back down to the 30% range just like after WW2. Can the USA do a sustained growth for 30 years like last time? Yes. The doomsday people just dont grasp that economies have their ups and downs and now we will be on an upswing that will take us to the next level.

As far as the USA being a world currency. So what, who cares. If we promote economic growth in other countries then they will want to do trade in their own currencies. It is simple economics. What is more efficient? For China to trade with Brazil and have to exchange to USD and then Brazilian Money and for Brazil to trade to USD and then Chinese money. How about just exchange in their own money with each other. That is not a sign of USD failure or success or strength or weakness. It is just sound business do to things directly. It would happen no matter what USA policy is. Once Brazil and China developed strong economies it is natural to just exchange on their own and not go through USD.
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dancingphil
May 30, 2013 11:04pm
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Bob, oh Bob.....

It is not just China and Brazil. It is the BRICS. Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa. They did their international trading deal to avoid US$ as an interim exchange some years ago because they could not trust the USA.

USA tax revenue is 2 Trillion dollars a year. Yet it spends 6-700 Billion a year more than it collects if we are kind and count current figures only. Your spending has been worse in recent history!

Assume you try to pay off your US Govt debt over 30 years, and it currently stands at $16 TRILLION dollars, lets be kind and assume that will take $500 Billion a year WITHOUT interest payments.

$2 Trillion Govt income, $2.6 Trillion Govt expense + $500 Billion in debt repayment. Hmmm, Bob your maths do not add up.

USA is insolvent.

USA has 3 bubbles. The most likely to explode first is the USA stock market bubble. This bubble only exists because of QE printed money. QE will end this year. When QE ends this year, the US stock market will COLLAPSE, IMPLODE and it will be the loss of no less than 90% of current share values.

For all the NONSENSE of the USA stock market bubble, NONE of it is reflected in higher public company earnings. THAT makes it a bubble ready to pop.

After the QE is ended, and after the stock market bubble has popped, the next will be the US$ bubble to explode.

NO ONE TRUSTS USA Bob. Certainly no smart money does.

Also true though is that China will fight to support the USA dollar bubble; let's get real, they hold a LOT of it.

But China cannot save the US$. And after the US$ collapses in the next 2-3 years, then it will be the US Govt Debt bubble that will crash immediately afterwards. Not even printing more will help.

The USA and its Fed have GUARANTEED hyper-inflation in its immediate future of 2-3 years.

The USA will be remembered for the worst depression ever inflicted on the human race. And all because it chose to fight wars it could not pay for.

Only idiots believe wars can bring peace.
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dancingphil
May 30, 2013 11:11pm — Edited
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Quoting Forexgain
Wow. With this strong headline "Death of the Dollar" & the following line " The Chinese currency will one day overtake the Dollar too. Has to be!" you must be kidding, i am sure you are.

Dollar is King & will remain King. Go & do your survey, you will find no one wants to replace their USD holding with YUAN but this funny article made my day today....
Let me guess, you are an American.

RMB is highly prized by the smart money, and as multi-billion dollars tranches were released via Hongkong in the last 2 years I know of, they have been over-sold MASSIVELY.

Through no fault of its own, China's RMB is significantly under-valued and is a most prized currency to own
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dancingphil
May 31, 2013 12:17am
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Quoting Ill-b-back
Funny, some are talking about the "present", when the article is referencing a possible/probable "future".

I agree, the tone of the article was strong, probably too strong, but many valid points.

China is doing it the hard way, forging relationships, investing in future economies and keeping it's favourite trading partner afloat.

With a long history of a frugal, servant population, todays and past Chinese have been paving the way for future generations.

The precise opposite of the West.

shame on us...
All true words mate.

I've only lived in China for 6+ years, so what I know is nothing at all. What they suffered before communism and during it is not something I wish to torture my mind about.

As a people, they are truly wonderful, generous and family oriented, anti-war and peaceful people.

I am an Australian; I wish I could say the same about Australians and their blindly following America into pretext-created wars.

As for China doing it hard; I'd much rather be a Chinese than an American.

China's FEAR of America has not spawned an arms-race.

Rather, China's fear has manifested itself in a hope that the USA will get its shit together.

Yet no one should assume China has not considered what happens when the USA fails.

China is very forgiving of the USA arrogance and ignorance.

Yet it is prepared for its expected failure.
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dancingphil
May 31, 2013 12:46am
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Ah, you are a Skip, cool.

Your words read as being either widely read, or as being from an open minded traveler of China.

In my experience, by and large, Australia has gotten the muti-cultural concept somewhat sort of in a sense of balance with concepts of democracy; well perhaps Melbourne more so than Sydney.

But a lot of that is all and only at a surface level too, given the drug issues and strategies Australia imported from the USA; when Holland was the smart country to import a strategy from.

China hasn't been a Communist country for decades; and though only 6% of Chinese are registered communists, ALL Communist party positions are elected by democratic process.

Anyway, your way with words are kind and filled with incite.

Respect to you for them.
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dancingphil
Jun 1, 2013 5:29pm — Edited
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America was founded on the near total genocide of the native American Indian. But the whites justified this as defending themselves against the "savages".

America furthered its economic power on the backs of and by the slaughter of the slave African, whilst at the same time it enlarged it's territory by stealing Texas etc from the Mexicans.

And for more than a century, USA Inc has endured an undeclared civil war between whites, blacks and Hispanics. The USA Inc civil war is profitable to USA Inc shareholders because they own and operate the Justice systems and prisons - the War on Drugs being just a pretext for profit.

America is not and never was a nation. It is a conglomerate of ruthless and corrupt thugs hiding behind corporate infrastructure.

The people of America have no voice; there is no democracy in USA Inc. There is only big money lobbying and marketing.

Sure they are fat, ignorant and arrogant. But they are OWNED by America Inc, and forever slaves to America Inc - wage slaves to the end with no voice in the outcomes or directions of USA Inc.

America never was and never will be a democratic "nation". It has only ever been a populace of drones herded (often herded kicking and screaming) by corporation's marketing. The tool of America Inc's corporations is media owned and induced marketing.

Only America Inc uses war as a tool for peace; because America Inc profits from war. Rational nations discuss issues diplomatically; USA Inc uses force because it makes money and gets territory to control.

ALL wars USA has fought in the "name of peace" have simply been hostile takeovers of other nation's political and economic processes.

I've been to USA 18 times. It is NOT a land of the free. It is a very dangerous place even just to visit.

It does not concern me at all that Americans HERE on FF refute the facts of its impending demise. For all the murder and mayhem America has caused in the last 65 years, they deserve the lesson of humility coming their way soon.

America Inc's absolute power has corrupted itself absolutely.

Its debt-feast and QE measures have GUARANTEED it will soon see a popped stock market bubble (within 2 months of QE ending), and within 2-3 years of that the collapse of the US$ and USA Govt Debt.

America Inc is insolvent.

It's days are numbered. And as the Super-Power Too Big to Fail; all nations (especially China) will try to save it - for a while. And they will fail in their attempts. The world is not big enough to save USA Inc.

America Inc's collapse into depression will pull the world into a depression. The world will sort it all out over the following 10-15 years. And maybe then America Inc will have finally become America the nation.

For sure, after the global depression America Inc lead the world into, America's people will be free of the "Inc" and they won't be so morbidly obese, ignorant or arrogant.

Sadly however, the USA Inc players will have already moved their cash and resources outside of USA. They are not the ones who get hurt.

Maybe I should not refer to it as USA Inc or America Inc.

But for sure, USA Mark I is fucked, and it is irrevocably going to collapse.

I am sure USA Mark II will have slimmer people less arrogant and ignorant than they currently are in Mark I
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dancingphil
Jun 2, 2013 11:50am
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Quoting jaygee
GDP per capita

USA 6th 49,922 intl$/person

China 93rd 9162 intl/$/person

India 133rd 3830 intl$/person
Why quote these useless statistics? They have "WHAT" to do with the "death of the dollar" article?

Any GDP number only has any relevance when compared to the cost of living in each respective country. China is extremely affordable for a high quality of life on your quoted figure.

But none of these numbers have any relevance to the subject matter at hand. The dollar has 2-3 years before it collapses, followed by the collapse of the USA Govt debt bubble; both events dragging the world into its most serious ever depression.

Americans will not be so fat, ignorant and arrogant after the event.
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dancingphil
Jun 2, 2013 12:27pm
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Quoting jaygee
lol phil. even including cost of living doesn't change those numbers much. Your obvious bias is laughable. China is no closer to being the economic super power as its gdp neighbors ecuador, thailand, algeria...? lol. You cant compete on an international level when your people make 6k a year. It is a 3rd world dump. we use it for cheap manufacturing and even that use is waning. There are other 3rd world dump countries ready to help out. You are either a foreigner with an ax to grind or a limbaugher who thinks the world is about to end. all zerohedgy...
I'm an Australian, and I simply live here in China. I have no vested interest in its merits or prosperity. I do see clearly the delusions of most American opinion for what it is.

I've never said the world will end. Nor have I argued that China will be the next economic super power.

My entire argument has been that QE has guaranteed the demise of the US$ in the next 2-3 years; beginning with the collapse this year of the USA stock market within 2 months of QE ending, and that 2-3 years after QE ends, there will be rapidly rising inflation followed by rapidly rising interest rates.

My argument is that QE measures as deployed by the Fed always cause these lagging impacts of inflation and high interest rates. And that this time the Fed has over used QE to extraordinarily excessive levels such that the impacts will be devastating.

The USA will survive. The world will survive. But there will be a severe 10-15 year depression.

The smart money already knows this.

Only the dumb money is currently invested in USA stocks, real estate or bonds.

To repeat my point. I only live in China and see things for what they are.

I am not fat nor ignorant; though I am sure my opinions could compete with American arrogance.
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dancingphil
Jun 2, 2013 12:49pm
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I will make a separate observation about China's GDP, and it is relevant to China's true strength in the face of any world wide crisis.

GDP is the sum total of all production. But to measure that number, all of this wages and production needs to be measurable. The real UNDERSTATED fact is that most of China's GDP is unreported.

Of the ten's of millions of small businesses in China, NONE pay tax. NONE of their output is counted. It is almost never done that plastic cards are used to transact any business. Almost all business done in China is done on a cash-cash basis.

I still remember when I first came to China 6 years ago, sitting in the bank waiting to take my turn with the bank teller. It always happened that 2-3 people in front of me would withdraw BRICKS of 100RMB notes. As in, 2-3 people taking out 100,000 RMB at a time.

And these were the unusual people; because they actually had their cash in a bank in the first place.

The 6-7 Trillion dollar Chinese GDP is much higher than that. In fact it would not surprise me if China already had a higher GDP than USA.

MOST CHINESE BUSINESS IS DONE ON A CASH CASH BASIS AND IS NOT COUNTED.
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dancingphil
Jun 2, 2013 12:53pm
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Quoting irongoose
One great thing about forex trading is no matter what is happening as long as the world doesn't switch to a single currency there is always money to be made. And after watching the EU experiment I don't think to many countries will want to be aboard for a one world currency.
This is the smartest comment that has been made for a while on this thread. And I agree totally; that I have no vested interest in a World currency and that I see no prospects for there being one.
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dancingphil
Jun 2, 2013 1:11pm
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Quoting inpatient
Manudatinh,

Your even now starting to get racist. Your an embarrassment to the nation you represent.

I think you should stop now since your attacks have become not only more wide of the mark but also more and more derogatory and personal.
He's just a mental midget mate easily seen for the fool he is; I simply ignore his pathological venting and save my time for worthy debates elsewhere.
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nanningbob
Jun 2, 2013 10:00pm
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I would also like to point out to USA detractors. The US economy is the only major economy that has decreased its overall debt the last 5 years. If you add up all debt, govt. private, business corp. etc. The USA is the only major economy to reduce that amount by almost 15% since 2008. Yes even with the FED going nuts with borrowing overall debt has been reduced drastically. With the Federal budget improving and increase of revenue and sequestration cuts (not a good idea but better than not doing anything) the future economic outlook for the US is looking better than anyone right now. Europe cannot say that, the BRIC countries cannot and China has added more debt by percentage than any of them. In the first 3 months of 2013 2/3 of all new loans in the world originated in China. It is just not sustainable what they are doing. In Shanghai alone price of real estate to income is now 40:1 and 15:1 and higher in other parts of the country. The USA market collapsed in 2008 at a 6.8:1 ration. The only reason there has not been a massive collapse is most real estate in China is done on cash deals or large down payments. The problem comes later when they try to sell or find out that their sales are long term leases and property returns to the govt. in 75 years. It is a long term depreciating asset that eventually becomes worthless. That is assuming the building actually lasts that long. Of course full property rights could be granted in the future but that is not the case now. The buildings I live in the owner owns the building or apt. but not the land underneath. So the govt. holds rights to confiscate the land at any time for whatever it deems is a better use. If you have read the news you now understand the anger of many Chinese who have had their homes confiscated and were returned pennies on the dollar of their investment. Anyway just more info for you China watchers.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 12:21am
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US Public Debt per year since year 2000:

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo5.htm

A very interesting total USA debt web page:

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Note the USA Govt debt is $148,000 for every US Tax Payer.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 8:33am
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Quoting regme
I still see US dollar has future. I don't see any other currency is ready in 10yrs from now. Most of Dollar news are from speculators to create volatility.
I've got no issues with taking you for all you are worth. I'm at peace with that fact actually.

Forex is a zero sum game after all is said and done.

But you have some time. All of what I and countless others have said is that the US$ will tank in the next 18 months-3 years.

First steps of the crash will be the ending of QE, and the collapse of the US stock market.

The rest is a chain reaction of very high inflation caused by the QE, followed by super high interest rates, lagging the inflation, the complete trashing of USA Treasury paper (bonds) because its low fixed interest rates will be eaten alive by high inflation.

The US$ will tank when foreign investors and smart US money want OUT of USA denominated assets.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 8:44am
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Quoting jaygee
So of course, you are short dollar futures in a large way. Please post your dollar short trades in real time so we can keep track of your progress. Thank you in advance.
You are not very good at reading are you.

In all posts on this subject by me, I make it very clear that the USA $ will tank in 18months - 2-3 years. Countless others agree with this assessment on the merits of how damaging QE has been.

First to collapse after QE ends will be the stock market. It will collapse in no later than 8 weeks of QE ending/tapering. Quite probably on simply the announcement of it ending.

I have NO US$ short futures.

I am a large lot, high leverage scalper. MY system for scalping with large lots and at high leverage has served me very well, and it continues to do so.

I am heavily invested in gold.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 9:25am
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I've read Zero Hedge and still do; I'm not a big fan but always keep my mind open.

Over the years I blew up quite a number of $200 accounts, until the one I didn't. I don't trade news, but I feel free to comment on it. I don't trade trends - though I feel free to scalp the daily momentum, and in fact my primary skill-set is counter trend trading.

I doubt the world will end. I doubt the monetary system will end; though money doesn't excite me much.

Over the last few months, I have bought 386 Kgs of physical gold which I keep in Hong Kong and I will continue to top that up as and when I can average down my total entry price nearer $1,250 as well as maintain gold as 40% of my portfolio. I was very late into gold, and my average entry has been $1,367 for the 12,300 ounces.

You can read my weight in gold as that I don't trust any country's paper money system. They are all QE'ing to some extent or other. They all want a devalued currency to stimulate their economies.

And I see all politicians as worse than Bangkok Taxi drivers; not to be trusted.

I only keep about $200,000 in my Forex accounts, and I routinely double or triple that weekly with my aggressive large lot scalping. SO on a weekly basis I withdraw my accounts back down to a total of $200k.

All of which started with the $200 account I finally did not blow up.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 9:50am
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Quoting jaygee
well most of that makes sense. how long time wise is a scalp for you? are you staring at a 1m chart?

Typically 5 x 100 lot trades from the M5. I hate being in a trade longer than 30 minutes, but on ranging days I often scoop 100 pips over a 4 hour period.

I'm a moody trader; I have to be in the mood to trade - feeling myself in-tune with the market and all that shit.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 10:14am
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There's an old card game called Euchre; also called Rickety Kate or the Black Bitch that I used to play 30 years ago when I was cop. What I noticed then is that the effective strategies all changed as you added a new player to the game. 3 player Euchre is not the same as 4 player, which is not the same as 5 player Euchre etc.

Forex is the same way. Trading 500 lots is very different that 0.5 lots. And I do aspire to growing to 100,000 lot trading when I have cleared my mind of what the effective strategies will be for 30-100 pip scalps each day.

Anyway, for the mental challenge, Forex beats doing crossword puzzles.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 1:30pm
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Quoting sidhujag
America sucks!
Having been to the USA 18 times, I think America serves a wonderful purpose; of keeping most Americans away from the the civilized world.

But then again, they do tend to have 1,000,000 mobilized military out of country much of the time; in training to become tomorrow's pathological serial killers let loose on society with no VA support infrastructure.

And you can see more stars in USA than you can in China.

It took me more than 2 years of living in Shenzhen China before I could count more than 9 stars in the night sky.

Most of China air quality problems is construction dust more than (LA type) pollution, but as an Australian, I miss being blinded by zillions of stars on a clear night sky.

And I miss lamb chops too.

What you hate is USA Inc, the corrupted American corporation. The people are simply fat, ignorant and arrogant.

And then there are some really cool Americans who actual can and do think too. The world needs more of these people.
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nanningbob
Jun 3, 2013 9:23pm
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Quoting dancingphil
Bob, oh Bob.....

It is not just China and Brazil. It is the BRICS. Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa. They did their international trading deal to avoid US$ as an interim exchange some years ago because they could not trust the USA.

USA tax revenue is 2 Trillion dollars a year. Yet it spends 6-700 Billion a year more than it collects if we are kind and count current figures only. Your spending has been worse in recent history!

Assume you try to pay off your US Govt debt over 30 years, and it currently stands at $16 TRILLION...
Exaggeration is your forte. You have so much junk here I dont know which part I should deal with.

First USA doesnt need China, China needs the USA. If the USA and China quit trading today China goes belly up. The USA can find any product China makes elsewhere in the world. China could not find markets big enough to make up the loss of trade. They would crash, we would adjust.

I have listened for 50 years people predicting collapse and hyper-inflation and the end of the dollar. Not going to happen if you understand how it works. The reason you back money with bonds (debt） and a central bank is for that very reason. Inflation is very easy to solve. You raise taxes bring the money back in and pay off the debt. Bang inflation is dropped dead in its tracks. Also the USA is not printing enough money to cause hyper-inflation. You deal with percentages not numbers. A person making 10K a year cannot afford to live and make payments on a 50K house. A person making a million can afford to live nicely and make payments on a 5 million dollar house. 100% debt to GDP during a financial DownTurn is handle by an economy like the USA especially when the rest of the debt has gone down by the rest of the economy. Do you get that overall debt is down by 15% and govt purchases of mortgages and houses has left us with a pile of assets we can cash in at a future date. You will be in great despair as the USA economy continues to grow and recover. It will not hyper-inflate, it will grow. QE3 was the buying of mortgage paper. Those are assets that someday can be sold for profit or pay off future debt. If I buy a house today at 100,000 I am in debt with future interest costs. 10 years from now I have an asset that I can cash in for more than I paid for it. Buying assets, which the USA govt. has done several times through this downturn and cashing them in for a profit later, which we have done several times, is simply a good way of doing business. People screamed about the GM rescue, guess what car company is#1 in the world again and paid off the govt. loans and bailouts at a profit. 10 years from now people will still be writing books of the coming crash and hyper-inflation and you will still be believing it. Write all you want, scream and yell from the housetops all the our faults. Not going to change much. We will still be the world's biggest economy with one of the best living standards in the world, etc.

What does America have. Assets, lots of them. The people, we are 4th in the world with percentage of college grades per population. Water, food, minerals, oil, gold #1 with almost 3 times as much gold as #2 Germany, etc. etc. We could say to H..... with the world and be self sufficient. BUt we dont. You dont like USA Navy patrolling the seas and keep them safe for trading/travel. Crap we can go home, you can have China's Navy take over. Imagine how safe the Aussies would feel seeing Chinese aircraft carriers patrolling off their coasts keeping them safe for the bad old USA. Be my guest, love to have it happen. You want that great. The USA can go to a balanced/surplus budget anytime it wants by taking its military home. Oh then China can finish its border disputes with Korea, Russian, Indian, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and all the other countries it wants to settle scores with. Yeah China thinks its Ocean rights go all the way out Philippine shores. You want that be my guest. You know what stops them. The 5th fleet. You stupid enough to believe China will fairly deal with those issues do so.

The USA constitution has made us the most stable govt. in the world. We now have the world's oldest functional govt. Over 200 countries have copied all or part of our Constitution. European countries develop govt. based on US constitution and they have lived in peace with each other. Africa, Asia, South America, where ever our principles of freedom, human rights, etc. go there is peace. Middle East now gets to try our great experiment in Democracy. China only grew when they dropped Communism and changed.

China is stable they are on their third govt in the last 100 years and this one just had its 2nd transition of leadership without the previous leadership being executed or sent to jail. That is stability for yeah. Nations store their gold, in Beijing, that is a laugh. They store their gold in under ground vaults in NYC. WHY? because it is safe and stable there. I could go on and on but it wont make any difference. You are what you are.
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nanningbob
Jun 3, 2013 10:13pm
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Quoting Yeow Boon
nothing stays up there forever. what goes up, must come down.

the Chinese RMB taking over the USD, not now. but in future, it might be. When? it is anybody's guess.
For the RMB to become a viable world currency it has to free float so it can adjust to market conditions. I do not see this present govt. ever fully allowing that. I live and work and run a business in China. I have seen foreigner after foreigner and company after company get eaten alive here, unless you know how to deal with these people. I have been somewhat profitable most years while here. This will be my last year as I am going home like dozens of other foreigner I know that have already left. They stack the deck against you but make it sound like its a fair deal. Win win they say, steak for them and turkey burgers for you, if your lucky enough to get that much. Also remember all the talk 4-6 years ago how the EURO was going to be the world's base currency. There is no one advocating that now.

China is so far behind so many countries. The USA is 11th in the world for income to gbp according to the 2012 IMF report at $49,922 per person. Australia if 5th, Canada is 9th. Japan is 13th Germany is 21st. Just for some comparisons.

China es 86th at $6076 per person. I mean it is not even close. They are still so far behind it will still take them decades maybe even a century or more before the average Chinese person will enjoy a lifestyle that is enjoyed here in the West.

I have enjoyed very much my stay here but I am tired of doing business here and always trying to keep myself from being taken every chance they get. It was a nice challenge and I would do it again if I was younger. But I am tired of their game and tricks and the way they do business. The rest of the world may think that doing business in RMB is a forgone conclusion but once you do business with them you really wont want to do again. Australia wants to do direct exchange with AUD dollars to RMB, and that is just good business has nothing to do with the dollar, but in 5-10 years they may long for the day of the free floating dollar instead of being tied up with the controls the govt. will do with the RMB.

Come in my lair says the spider to the fly. Be careful what you ask for. You may think the dollar is a bad, wait to your caught in the RMB spider web.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 11:36pm — Edited
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I've never suggested that RMB will become THE World reserve currency. And I really don't care if it ever does or doesn't. I do hold substantial RMB as an asset I feel sure will appreciate in coming years. But as a Forex trader, I simply care that there are multiple pairs to be traded. I don't give a stuff about reserve currency status of any kind.

Certainly China may rewrite traditional ideas on the subject. It already does massive trade with Europe in the Euro, because Europe is China's largest trading partner (USA is the 2nd largest) and much of this activity with Europe is now being transacted in RMB.

And certainly the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have agreed in recent times to establish their own development bank to mimic functions of the World Bank and the IMF; which they perceive as USA controlled. Further, the BRICS countries have agreed to transact their trade in their own currencies.

It seems that only America has an ego about the concept of there being a reserve currency. I sincerely doubt China Govt cares about such a status. It simply does business with nations in currencies the parties agree to.

China as a culture and a people is a very long term thing spanning many thousands of years. Small things like Communism appear as a mere blip on her historical record. Only 6% of Chinese ever cared enough about politics to ever join the communist party; the rest just don't give a shit about Govt.

China has modernized at a hectic pace in recent decades; it is far from being a fully developed country. Certainly with only one reconditioned air craft carrier salvaged from the Russian scrapyard, China has no goal of stomping its foot on the throat of the world through controlling the oceans with brute force.

Along its economic and social development path, it has invested in best-of-breed infrastructure. A simple comparison would be to put a New York subway against any Chinese subway.

China as it evolves today is entirely based on seeking economic cooperation with other nations. It does not send in Economic Hitmen to load countries up with debt they cannot afford so as to force that country to sell to USA Inc its resources at cents in the dollar. It does not use Military force or threats to inflict its will or values on other nations.

For its very minor border disputes that have gone on for decades, it has always used diplomacy and discussion rather than B52's. China is in no conflict with any nation that does not directly border it. None of its border disputes involve the Military. And border disputes discussed often lead to trade deals while everyone is sitting down.

Doing business in China is NOT for those who would come to China with preconceived ideas of how things should be done. When in China, do as the Chinese do. Doing business in China has very cultural aspects to it that will tire and exhaust those who cannot learn how things get done. If people come to China expecting to do business the American or Australian way for example, at best you will just scrape by.

A trivial example is how the Chinese firm will always seek to have an insider on the team of the foreign (or Chinese) company they wish to do business with. Very often the fastest way they achieve this is by offering a secret commission of 2-5% to the translator of the foreign firm. Some in the west would see this as a corrupt practice. Complain as much as you want; it is the expected normal here and it is the culture for all business done in China; and in most parts of Asia.

Repeating the argument about GDP per capita doesn't make it any more true. The average GDP per capita in Australia is NOT enough to live well on! During my business years in Australia, could never understand how my employees lived on the money I paid them, and I was a good payer.

$US20,000 (as of 3 years ago, it may have changed a little since) was the Govt mandated entry level to high income status in China. The cost of living in China is extremely low.

Despite my wealth, I choose to keep that a secret from my Chinese friends, and I share a lovely apartment in Guangzhou with 14th floor views over the Pearl River with a young 24 year old couple. Our rent per month is $US350. That is with power, water, gas, electricity and internet paid for. And we live VERY well.

But if you want to consume western brands for all your consumerism, meals and living costs, and if you want to eat in western restaurants and go to bars to drink western alcohol etc; then you are going to pay dearly for that.

I came to live in China to experience China, and to me China is not its Govt; to me China is its people. And they are wonderful.

With my 3 hour walking each day, I most often do it between 2am and 4 am. I have never for a second felt at risk ever here in China. And the surprising number of women walking alone on the streets at that time would agree with me. China is a very free and open society at the grass-roots level of LIFE here.

USA and Australia are Police States by comparison.
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dancingphil
Jun 4, 2013 8:39pm
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Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher warned Tuesday;

"I argue that the Fed has no hope of moving the economy to full employment, despite having pulled out all the stops on the monetary front, unless our fiscal authorities get their act together," Fisher warned. "Until then, I argue that the Fed is, at best, pushing on a string and, at worst, building up kindling for speculation and, eventually, a massive shipboard fire of inflation."

In his Shakespearean summary of the economic situation, the descriptors were even more dire:

"Should the FOMC try to compensate for fiscal authorities' inability to act by provisioning still more monetary fuel, it may risk an explosion of speculative excess, or worse: an eventual inflationary conflagration, the debasement of money and the ruination of our economy and lifestyle."

https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/dallas-feds-fisher-mon-pol-hopeless-absent-sound-fiscal-pol

Seems he dopes not agree with your views Bob......
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nanningbob
Jun 4, 2013 10:04pm
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USA and Australia are Police States by comparison.

Redress of grievances is not in the Chinese Constitution. It is in Western Constitutions. What that means is if you have a grievance against the government you are allowed to petition, protest, write, and put forth your case for change. Not allowed in China. If you had been in a Chinese University teaching like I did for 6 years, you would know all the subjects and areas you would not be free to talk about.

Minor border disputes. China has lined up its troops with live combat border clashes with Russia, India, Vietnam and its Navy has had clashes with Vietnam, Philippines, and Japan.

Enough I have had these debates with others before. Every single person that was so hot on China that I met the last 12 years I have lived here are not longer here. There little Socialist heaven turned out in to nightmares.
1. The one who spent six months in jail and had to have his parents come bail him out was very happy to get rescued by his back home police state. He couldnt shut up about how bad America was. Sure was glad the State Dept. bailed him out.
2. The one who got sick so his school fired him and refused to pay his medical care. sent him home. US dept. of state paid for his care and then paid for his trip home.
3. The one who loved going drinking with his Chinese friends until he bopped one and they black marked his visa.
4. The guy who spent 7 years bragging about how great China was compared to Australia couldnt wait to get out of here by his 10th year.
5. the dozens and dozens who were so happy to be here but refused to stay a 2nd year. USA, BRITAN, AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, I have heard how rotten their home coutnries were until they were here for a year or more. Home sure was nice to them when they got back.
5. I remember the French Socialist who bragged week after week how great it was to be in such a wonderful true socialist country. He didnt stay 2 years. etc etc.

Have fun in your Socialist dream world, but remember no Chinese or Foreigner has the right for redress of grievances. You just get booted out.
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dancingphil
Jun 5, 2013 2:07am
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Look Bob, your last post is so far off topic it doesn't deserve to be refuted.

Clearly you are very tired and too frustrated to be living in China. Good luck with your relocation back state-side.

I'm here to talk Forex.
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Ill-b-back
May 30, 2013 7:15pm
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Quoting inpatient
and what does per capita have to do with anything? Chinese GDp is roughly half that of the US and with their growth set to be at between 3 and 5% higher every year you know what that means? Do the math with the compound interest on that. In just 15 years at current levels the Chinese will have a higher GDP than the US. Then factor in the US debt (owed in part to the Chinese) and you will see that in only 15 years the world will be a very different place.
yes brudda, do da math eh...



I've said it before, China are just getting started when everyone else is on their knees, Perfect timing.

They aren't dumb, fat and lazy like us Westerners uh...

lol...

Give them a few hundred years to get all cosy and well see if we can corrupt them also......
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Forexgain
May 30, 2013 10:54pm
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Wow. With this strong headline "Death of the Dollar" & the following line " The Chinese currency will one day overtake the Dollar too. Has to be!" you must be kidding, i am sure you are.

Dollar is King & will remain King. Go & do your survey, you will find no one wants to replace their USD holding with YUAN but this funny article made my day today....
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Ill-b-back
May 30, 2013 11:58pm
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Funny, some are talking about the "present", when the article is referencing a possible/probable "future".

I agree, the tone of the article was strong, probably too strong, but many valid points.

China is doing it the hard way, forging relationships, investing in future economies and keeping it's favourite trading partner afloat.

With a long history of a frugal, servant population, todays and past Chinese have been paving the way for future generations.

The precise opposite of the West.

shame on us...
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Ill-b-back
May 31, 2013 12:30am
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Quoting dancingphil
All true words mate.

Yet no one should assume China has not considered what happens when the USA fails.

China is very forgiving of the USA arrogance and ignorance.

Yet it is prepared for its expected failure.
Very true, and these words in particular are what sets it apart.

It's a soft, peculiar wisdom "to some", but has stood the test of time.
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Ill-b-back
May 31, 2013 6:01am
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Quoting Squeeze
The biggest challenge we face (wrt China's growth) is their energy consumption. If they begin to consume energy in similar volume to the USA then all our lights will go out. The USA uses 25% of the globe's energy supply with 5% of the globe's population, if China also used up 25% we'd be FUBAR. If they consumed on a pro rata basis vis a vis the USA then...gulp...

The moves we're seeing in the M.E. are representative of China's exponential growth and demand, thousands of Chinese workers left Libya without so much of a whimper, I doubt they can...
Brother, you're in a league of your own on this one, I got the energy bit, not sure I understand the rest.
Not your fault, mine. I deal in simple concepts and don't have the historical education you have aquired.
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Ill-b-back
May 31, 2013 6:11am
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Quoting dancingphil
Ah, you are a Skip, cool.

Your words read as being either widely read, or as being from an open minded traveler of China.

In my experience, by and large, Australia has gotten the muti-cultural concept somewhat sort of in a sense of balance with concepts of democracy; well perhaps Melbourne more so than Sydney.

But a lot of that is all and only at a surface level too, given the drug issues and strategies Australia imported from the USA; when Holland was the smart country to import a strategy from.

China hasn't been a Communist country...
No, never been to China, but I find it easy to respect their approach.

I find uncommon Wisdom and to some extend the rest of Weiss research very helpful.
I find alternative outlooks that are not tainted with obvious BS or constructed to tow the line.

I don't have anything against US citizens per se. Yes they can be loud and opinionated (it is not a myth), but you can find that anywhere. They can also be very pragmatic, practical and helpful and don't shy away when making a point.
But the political and military spectrums make me cringe. Such a shame.
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Ill-b-back
May 31, 2013 5:41pm
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Quoting Spreadbetter
Me accused of a lack of real world understanding hahaha, there's something I'm not accused of often :-)

Fox News? American tv channel spitting out right wing propaganda for its audience of bigots and zealots? We don't recieve it in Europe with standard packages, certainly not in the three properties I call home in three different European countries ;-) Annoying that I have to show my passport when travelling throughout Europe, ports and moorings can be a pain.
I could be wrong, but from reading inpatients post I think he was referring to his own fellow citizens lack of understanding (which he is embarrassed about)
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Ill-b-back
May 31, 2013 9:28pm
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Quoting inpatient
well at least that is something we agree on....ha
Brother, talk all you want. I'm learning a lot in here and elsewhere from intelligent people and I'm certain I'm not the only one. It's really not hard to filter out the obvious BS.

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Ill-b-back
Jun 1, 2013 6:57am
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Quoting Manudatinh
LOL "lost everything twice" What did you learn from Bristol University? Did they teach you about risk management at all? You better stop blaming people make you look stupid. Thanks for the entertainment by the way.
With LG on your buddy list you'll never be short on entertainment.
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2+2=4ex
Jun 2, 2013 11:05pm
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Quoting inpatient
whilst it pains me to say (as im no fan of China at all) but it doesn't matter that they have terrible standards and the place is a dump. Wealth there is and will be held by the nation and with so many people the US has no possibility of keeping up with the growth there. The future is Chinese my brother, disappointing I know but its fact.
Greater population is not an advantage. China has always had a larger population than America.
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sidhujag
Jun 6, 2013 12:42pm
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Quoting dancingphil
Having been to the USA 18 times, I think America serves a wonderful purpose; of keeping most Americans away from the the civilized world.

But then again, they do tend to have 1,000,000 mobilized military out of country much of the time; in training to become tomorrow's pathological serial killers let loose on society with no VA support infrastructure.

And you can see more stars in USA than you can in China.

It took me more than 2 years of living in Shenzhen China before I could count more than 9 stars in the night sky.

Most of China...
Exactly, but I just summed it up in 2 words
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Hareii
Jun 1, 2013 10:25am
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Quoting inpatient
and another thing, I have been to China and nothing in China is rosy my friend. The place is awful but it is what they are used to.

How can you describe a nation with almost 8% GDP growth as 'going nowhere'?
China has 5000 years of opportunity to forge ahead to become a great nation (similarly for India). But they did not. Time and again in their history, they scaled the height of progress but fall back deeper into regression thereafter. There is something fundamental behind their failing. That has not changed today and is not likely to change much going forward. I will not going into what that fundamental is. Everyone in China feels it in their heart, just that they are not speaking about it in public.

It would be wishful thinking to assume they are 'going somewhere' now against the other more competitive economies of the world whereas for the last 5000 years they just going around in circles even when there are no rivals to their might and advancements back then.
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Hareii
Jun 1, 2013 10:51am
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Inpatient, I have to agree on many of your points (but not some). Yes, there is a 'visible' 'structural demise of the US as the world superpower' now. I agree. 'US will be overtaken'. No I disagree.

The greatest strength of the US is in its people and value. Many people will laugh their head off by my above comment when there are seemingly so much woes, fights, hatred that make a great mess within that nation.

For those who choose to see the down side, the down side is the only thing they will see.

Just a simple point to illustrate my point. Just name me a single nation that breed citizens like Warren Buffets and Bill Gates who has committed to donate their entire wealth (in the billions) when they are not around anymore.

As long as the people in US 'don't lose it', and 'hold the fort', the structural demise of the US as a superpower will cease when the next capable leader (and not one who can only empty talk the birds down from the tree with his promise of change and a new era) take the driver seat. Your system allows for the possibility of such a capable leader to emerge later (in spite of the difficulty many people may feel of the current polarized 2 party system). But I cannot say the same for China system.

You have hope. They have none.
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dab
May 30, 2013 8:48pm
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Much debate, many valid points. We can't predict the future based on today's standards. Some talk about the manufacturing industries but technology can destroy those. Think about the impact of 3D printing on labour based industries.....
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 3:34pm
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Quoting Murdetrain
Lmao strong headline.

Edit: ROFL as if the Chinese currency could ever replace the us dollar, please do us a favor and go visit China and tell me that's what a super Powe looks like. Not to mention the fact that they gave up their constriction of the world's tallest building (gee I wonder why?) China hasbhit a plateau, and I doubt it will ever get over it. At least not in my lifetime

whilst it pains me to say (as im no fan of China at all) but it doesn't matter that they have terrible standards and the place is a dump. Wealth there is and will be held by the nation and with so many people the US has no possibility of keeping up with the growth there. The future is Chinese my brother, disappointing I know but its fact.
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 3:38pm
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And in terms of a platueau? 7% growth and likely double that of the US for the next 25 years. Possibly 3 times more.

US drowning in debt with a lazy, fat and uncompetitive population that will argue about every move the government make to cut spending.

Western kids are too busy playing video games it the 'whatever' generation. Chinese kids are ready to work 80 hour weeks for relatively nothing.
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 7:04pm
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Quoting jaygee
China is 93rd in gdp per capita. Right in there with several Central American countries fighting for the right to be called the up and coming dump of the world.

and what does per capita have to do with anything? Chinese GDp is roughly half that of the US and with their growth set to be at between 3 and 5% higher every year you know what that means? Do the math with the compound interest on that. In just 15 years at current levels the Chinese will have a higher GDP than the US. Then factor in the US debt (owed in part to the Chinese) and you will see that in only 15 years the world will be a very different place.
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 8:23pm
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Quoting jaygee
yes, everything is going to be exactly the same as it is today for 15 years. You do some math. you seem to think that everything in china is rosy but i assure you, it is not. it is just another country with too many people and cheap labor that isn't going anywhere. I wonder how long their first depression will last. i wonder how many of the common people will put up with a real economic depression. whole cities with no one in them. lol. ya china is going to be in better shape than the US in 15 years. get a job. GDP per capita is a good measure of...
Brother you underestimate the Chinese people and what they can 'get used to'. Everyday life for a lot of people in China is already as bad if not worse than it was in the great depression. We call that a tough life, they call it normal. Have you been to China? Seen how they live? The wealth in China will be held by the government and there is NO WAY that the US can compete over the long term with a nation with endless almost free labor, virtually no rules or standards. It is a sad thought I know but the future superpowers will be Chinese and Indian. This doesn't mean the average guy on the street will ever live to the standards there are in the US but when it comes to power and wealth it will be Chinese and Indian.
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 8:25pm
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and another thing, I have been to China and nothing in China is rosy my friend. The place is awful but it is what they are used to.

How can you describe a nation with almost 8% GDP growth as 'going nowhere'?
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 8:58pm
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dab, this is true but when you consider the education systems and the standards attained there is little doubt that by the middle of this century Asia will be hosting by far the leading powers of the world. Even Indonesia will swamp the wealth and power of the US (and a Muslim nation too). Asia was always the world leader before the British led the world into Industrialization and used these improvements to generate huge wealth and military might. In colonizing the majority of Asia it knocked them back a lot but they have started to regain and at a time when the west is trying to be politically correct and regenerating itself with a somewhat less educated and hard working population those nations in Asia are just starting to get their house in order again. There are simply too many people in these countries willing to do more for less. Over time it is inevitable.

The only way the 'west' could have changed this for the long term is to have continued in the way the British did in the 1800's and just murdered them into submission. Political correctness and the increase in media has ended that possibility and now the future is mapped out.
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 10:53pm
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Like Bernanke said last week the future economic booms will have less and less impact and they will be shared with the world meaning no one nation will really gain too much advantage over the use or sale of it. A good response which i enjoyed reading (apart from the part where you say 'who cares' about the USA losing its reserve currency status. The negatives from this will be huge.

A far better argument though than Jaygee telling me to 'get a job'.
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 11:14pm
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Quoting Forexgain
Wow. With this strong headline "Death of the Dollar" & the following line " The Chinese currency will one day overtake the Dollar too. Has to be!" you must be kidding, i am sure you are.

Dollar is King & will remain King. Go & do your survey, you will find no one wants to replace their USD holding with YUAN but this funny article made my day today....
The Chinese and Indian wealth will be more than 4 times the US by 2050, wealth is power (many of its people might be stilling living through terrible poverty though). To compare a semi communist nation like China to the US is just silly if you know anything about economics. The US wealth is held by individuals who have the ability to simply emigrate and settle somewhere new (like say Australia) while the wealth in China will be held mainly by the nation who are far more obedient and easy to control than what we are used to in the west.

Im not neccesarily claiming that the reserve currency of the future will be chinese as it may not. But im certain that the dollar will collapse, as certain as i am about my own death.
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inpatient
May 30, 2013 11:18pm
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Quoting Forexgain
Wow. With this strong headline "Death of the Dollar" & the following line " The Chinese currency will one day overtake the Dollar too. Has to be!" you must be kidding, i am sure you are.

Dollar is King & will remain King. Go & do your survey, you will find no one wants to replace their USD holding with YUAN but this funny article made my day today....

My friend 'absolutely everyone' wants to find a way to drop their dollar holdings. Its just nobody can find a way to do this while commodities are traded in Dollars. The Chinese are 'forced' to lend to the US as if they stop then the US stops buying from them. Its a vicous circle that ends badly.
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 1:59pm
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Quoting Spreadbetter
The meme tptb in the USA have rehearsed and are now publicising are that they're a couple of years away from energy independence, but there's plenty of peer reviewed papers proving that's wrong.

The reliance on fracking is frightening and the projections are wildly optimistic, similarly the USA will have to make a choice between which is the most precious resource; clean water or gas, little point in ruining the water tables for the sake of keeping the house warm in winter.

The American contributors to this section need to put aside their...
My friend i am an American citizen and i have zero pre conceived prejudices. Will admit though from my fellow citizens i am embarrassed at your lack of real world understanding. Too much Fox news while sitting in your arm chair. You probably dont even have a passport.
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 2:06pm
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Dont get me wrong. I LOVE the USA and everything it tries to stand for. We get alot of bad press for some of the choices that have been made for us by our so called elected government but after travelling the world i am proud of where i live. I would never want my two sons to be anything other than proud of our nation too. The trouble is im increasingly proud of what the nation once was as opposed to what it might be in the future.

What really does get to me though is the naivety and sense of entitlement that many of my people are victims of.

We were settled by the British in a time when they were the world leaders in science, industry, philosophy, literature, education and medicine. We inheritied a land filled with natural resources and abundant space. Through immigration we were added to by the best in class from a variety of fields. We have been incredibly lucky and priveleged and it boils my piss to see the fat youth of today that have NO IDEA what it means to have all of this. We will be overtaken by many nations and slowly consume ourselves into debt and oblivion and steadily become less relevant in the world. It is sad but at least i accept things as they are instead of shouting stupid things like 'get a job' whenever anyone challenges anything i say.
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 2:11pm
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Quoting Manudatinh
This author is full of shit! One thing I am sure that the author will be DEAD before the DOLLAR!
The communists will fall apart in 2014, and China's banking system will collapse! Then guess what, its people will dump the Chinese Yuan and collect the DOLLARS. I am sure you've been aware that the communists have NO RESPECT! They don't give a shit about the world's regulations. Obviously, they won't be in the game if they don't respect the game's rules, they will get their ass kicked badly.

Are you still a teenager? Do you realy think anyone is going to kick China's ass?

You must have grown up in the 80's. This isnt Rocky anymore. We here in the US cant even get our way in Afghanistan let alone China. You need to grow up and learn about the world before posting sily thngs on a public forum viewed by many others from around the world. It is people like you that make us look stupid to every other nation on the planet. Go sit in your room chanting USA, USA, USA and play your video games in happy denial.
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 7:01pm
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Quoting Ill-b-back
I could be wrong, but from reading inpatients post I think he was referring to his own fellow citizens lack of understanding (which he is embarrassed about)

You are correct brother, im glad at least some people have the ability to read properly before throwing things back.
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 7:08pm
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Quoting Manudatinh
Nobody made you look stupid, that's just the way you are! People can tell when they look at your profile! You're the one who need to grow up and learn more about China. Go out and make friend with Chinese then they'll tell you about the real life in that country. Good luck fool!

I have been to China sir and seen it first hand and yes i also have friends who are Chinese also since i regularly do business in China, (have you even been there?)As for my profile making me look stupid? The fact that i have had experienced, wise and knowledgeable people vouch to state that they appreciate my opinions and you do not is all i need to add.

The fact that you try and resort to petty name slinging and character bashing when someone challenges your points just shows your level of maturity and wisdom. I wont lower myself to that standard. if you dont have any relevant counter argument then just jog on....
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 7:11pm
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Spreadbetter, none of this was aimed at you and i apologise if that was not clear. You seem to be fairly accurate and balanced in your posts and just wanted to clarify that i was in no way referring to you negatively.

Peace
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 7:21pm
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Quoting jaygee
inpatient sounds familiar. who were you in your last ff life?

only profile i ever had bro, who were you thinking i was?

Im sorry if you arent happy that i dont run around ignoring the obvious and i know its hard to be told someone thinks your wrong but i have travelled the world. I have a degree from Bristol University in Economics. I have lived in 4 different continents, made millions in business, lost everything twice, im married with kids. Im a man of the world and unless someone can point out the valid reasons why they believe that the Chinese will not overtake the US as the biggest world super power then i just dont buy it.

Comments like 'get a job' and the Chinese will fall apart next year without any specific reason just wont do. Asking how they will cope with a depression when that for the majority of Chinese is all they have ever known shows a real lack of understanding. This isnt a playground argument about who's Dad is tougher. This is a global forum with several hundred highly intelligent and highly intellectual people.

If you cant 'discuss' your way through it then just admit your out of your league and maybe use it as a method of developing your own knowledge base.

I mean you or manudatinh no harm personally and this is not personal so please dont keep going down that road. Just a disagreement on a global matter.

Peace
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 8:08pm — Edited
Permalink
I will give everyone my opinions on what is going on and why it seems that the majority (almost all Americans) dont really see it.

Firstly, forget that the president and the elected goverment run America. Money owns America. It is why the rest of the world scorn at our 'freedom slogan' and why our 'democracy' is a joke throughout the world amongst economist and sociologists. Goldman Sachs have more power than the senate. Just look back at when Paulson and his Goldman buddies hatched the QE idea. I know lets print tons of money to invest in stocks that will drive up our assets so we can make billions while saddling the US taxpayer with a bill that essentially makes them insolvent with zero chance of coming out of it. I mean do you really think that the money would not have been spent better on infrastructure projects at state level? Instead of sitting in the accounts of major companies and financial institutes in the hope that better liquidity would help them to borrow or maybe invest some of it? Which would have created more jobs or grown the economy? Its a no brainer that the average guy on the street just doesnt understand enough about. The fact that the Dow Jones has never been higher in a time when record Americans are on food stamps and applying for benefits seems to be just ignored.

So what happens when a Capitalist economy matures and the rich get so rich and powerful the people start to spot the gaps and start to riot and even plan for revolution? In reality it is the same as an absolute monarchy but just dressed up better to try and please the common people. Well this is a globalized market so they will simply move somewhere else, with Australia likely to see a mass migration of wealth when the shit hits the fan. You see thats the beauty of it. Warren Buffet can simply emigrate. Haliburton, Coca Cola etc can simply exit the NYSE and set up in Australia. The Australians will offer them incentives to switch their and reduce their tax levels dramatically. If not Australia then somewhere else. the highest bidder. When people own wealth individually as opposed to everyone owning wealth through the state they will always abuse it. Its a fact of humanity that we as a people are inately greedy and will step over our brothers in Africa to get more more more.

sad but true.

It is the problem that all free market capitalist nations will eventually have. Try and tighten the rules and the rich will simly move. It will happen to the US over the next twenty or so years and yes it is a sad fact. Got to feel for the American people who will be left to carry the can and will try for 100 years to drag themselves back to where they were.

Yes i am a socialist with an idea that all 'too big to fail' companies should be state owned. they make too much money and have too much power to assume they will make decisions only for the good of themselves. I mean ask yourself 'why would they not?'
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inpatient
Jun 1, 2013 10:00am
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Quoting Manudatinh
LOL "lost everything twice" What did you learn from Bristol University? Did they teach you about risk management at all? You better stop blaming people make you look stupid. Thanks for the entertainment by the way.

Actually i lost everything twice in business, i have only been trading for 18 months. Both during the economic downturn in the US between 2008 and 2011. My risk management in trading is fine and nothing at all to do with this conversation. It seems that whenever someone that can not structure an argument properly they resort to trying to find anything else to turn on. Very predictable from you.
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inpatient
Jun 1, 2013 10:14am
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Quoting harryodal
You seem not capable of managing risk, your brash views is another indication of this besides your self confession in the quote. Are you assuming that the school of thought to which the China belongs will become dominant in world politics and economics? That when it happens my friend will reset history and set us back a thousand years especially on the political front. We are referring to a nation that is still half closed to the rest of the world and has in place a heavily regulated information dissemination system. Well, be informed that the global...

Im not trying to say that their culture, systems of government or even money will be worldwide. Contrary to what seems to be the argument i never said we would be all using Yuan. I just stated that the Chinese will be the main world super power in the future.

This is what happens when someone thinks emotionally about a statement. They spin the statement in every way to find negatives that are far detracted from what was really said. If you read what i have written i actually stated at the begining that i have zero love for the Chinese nation as a place to live. System of government, food, hygiene standards etc etc. However, i will say this. They were on the whole polite and gentle as a people. They have different ways which make them seem rude (such as not queing for things and picking their nose in public) but in truth it is just the way it has always been. In terms of respect which i have seen mentioned. I have found them to be very respectful and from me were very interested to learn about other places in the world which fascinated them.

I dont think thye are trying as a people to take over the world at all. They just want to be ble to feed their kids and live in peace. Isnt that just the pursuit of happiness? Manudatinh, you are everything that i fear about or nation and its future. You are childish and uninformed but feel your opinions are right simply because they are yours. I know many, many people like you and you will never learn since you lack the capacity to ever really question yourself.
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inpatient
Jun 1, 2013 10:30am
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This will be my last post on this thread. There is not really anything else to say that actually relates to the matter and i apologise to those reading that some of my less educated and immature compatriots have shown a total lack of understanding and ability to effectively discuss anything that relates to the structural demise of the US as the worlds superpower between 2001 and 2030. They lack the self esteem to be able to take a hit to the ego since they feel that the success of the nation (which was given everything and every advantage from day 1) has in some way a reflection of their inabilities.

They are part of the reason that the US will be overtaken and it does make me sad. Please dont view everyone in the US as like this as there are also many, many creative, respectful, hard working and wise people in this great nation.

Peace
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inpatient
Jun 1, 2013 10:46am
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Quoting Hareii
China has 5000 years of opportunity to forge ahead to become a great nation (similarly for India). But they did not. Time and again in their history, they scaled the height of progress but fall back deeper into regression thereafter. There is something fundamental behind their failing. That has not changed today and is not likely to change much going forward. I will not going into what that fundamental is. Everyone in China feels it in their heart, just that they are not speaking about it in public.

It would be wishful thinking to assume they...

Hareli, a far better argument and it is refreshing. You are correct that the Chinese have a history of 2 steps forward and one back. the fundamental reason for this was simply the size and scale of their nation. It was and still is almost like a world within a world. The many territories in history fought against each other to provide the regular two steps back. The trouble with China throughout the centuries has been its insular nature. Nothing new from the outside was ever looked at so life went on meaninglessly without real developments for a long time.
In comparison in the west and by the west in terms of development i mean Europe. Trade and a sharing of ideas, research etc led to the cultural and industrial revolutions.
You in my opinion are correct in your understanding of the past in China but the big difference now is on two fronts. Firstly, the internet has given the Chinese an ability to catch up with and likely start to even become front line in research, science, medicine, education etc. Secondly, for the first time the Chinese now have a sense of real pride on a world level of who they are as a nation. It is why the governement has relaxed many rules making the nation less controlled. The reason is that they dont have to anymore. Instead of dreaming of a life outside its people now dream of the life they can have inside. That has come from an increase in wealth and standard of living breeding confidence and contentment that they are getting somewhere. Things are different this time in China and although it is taking some time (which is understandable since they have moved from an almost medievil state into a modern global superpower within 30 years) they are on their way.

Decent post though hareli....
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inpatient
Jun 1, 2013 2:44pm
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Again a well structured response from you. It is appreciated.

It is true i have less faith in those people you describe and it is rare that wealth will choose to give itself away to charity as the norm. Credit for Buffet and Gates though if they do carry through with this.

I actually think it is those mega wealthy people which will contribute to the downfall in the US. Their flexibility and ability to simply leave always gives them an easy out which is not something the average american has the ability to do.

I see the whole idea of QE as a disturbing indication . Driving up the debt to US tax payers which will greatly impact the lives of the next 5 generations at least. Whilst they use it to drive up their assets in stocks.
The master stroke is that they will at some point (quite soon)when given the signal from the fed pull out their money and collapse it again. Only to re enter when its at the bottom again. The trouble this next time will be that there wont be anything left to drive up the value other than true growth which will be painfully slow. The people left with the debt wont buy the whole QE thing again and i do predict a riot when they see what they are left with. When the American people see the mega wealthy taunt them by flashing their wealth i think the penny will drop and we will see social unrest that has never been witnessed in the US. If there is no growth then why would they choose to invest again in the Dow Jones or anything American? They will find something new in search of their 10% yield minimum. I mean General Electric pay no taxes... Is that not crazy considering what they make and in a time when some of my friends cant even afford the basics for their family.

Obama and any future government will keep trying to ban the guns because it will give them a lesser headache when the standard of living continues to fall and get harder and harder to justify to the American people.
Social unrest here in the USA will be far worse than anything seen in Greece and although im not a fan of Alex Jones i think he at least has that part right.

It is dissppointing but it is just the natural cycle of a population through from. Elitist to true Socialism. In a way it is inevitable and just a question of time.
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inpatient
Jun 1, 2013 6:34pm
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dancingphil, whilst i agree with some of what you say (a little harshly put maybe though).

i do disagree with some of it.

America was actually founded with great principles which have been the envy of the world since it inception.

All new nations arise after a battle or land grab with someone else. That is how all of the nations of the world are established and America was no different.

In terms of slavery it was actually the British that introduced slavery to the Americas whilst it was still a British colony. In one of the nations first major acts after winning their independence from a totally overstretched Britian (at the time the British were trying to also fight with the french and colonise half of the world)Abraham Lincoln signed the emancipation proclomation and freed the slaves. The USA even held a fairly brutal civil war to stand up for the rights of the slaves and have since worked hard to try and do what they can to mend the damage caused (also with the natives).
The original foundations were great for the time and only one thing has really destroyed the future for the USA as a nation of people and that thing is globalisation. In a global marketplace the rich have new growth to be tapped from investments elsewhere and suddenly the top down economic successes of the past will reverse as the wealthy try to find better returns by movng their investment power to other areas away from the USA. The remaining and diminishing middle classes will find it tougher and tougher to pay the bills and the debt burden left behind and this is already well on its way to ruining much of what the USA has left.

In terms of internal relations between whites and blacks well that is always going to have issues. Being one of the most racially diverse nations on the planet though i think you are wrong to think it is worse here than in most places such as say the UK, or France or Sweden, Pakistan, Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Italy, Russia etc where racism is far worse than in the USA when you consider eahc nations ethnic diversity (or lack of). The nation is more tolerant by far than any other i have been to and have knowledge on. It is one of the principles it was founded on and many white Americans have died trying to protect this.

True the American people as a whole have become over weight and badly advised by their own media into thinking they are made of gold.

For me though the USA is a nation. A nation though that has been hijacked by the greed of the few and run in a way to drag as much out for as long as they can. How they have managed to do all of this steadily over time since the 'global marketplace' was established i just dont know. Every Economics graduate in the whole world knows how this ends and much of what you have predicted will come true. Just try not to judge the every day American as being to blame as it is human nature to believe what you are told over and over again. The same way the people of North Korea are in for the mother of all shocks when they realise the truth to all of the lies they have been preached for the past 50 years.

America will rise again, not the superpower they once were but a place that is more humble and respectful. Harder working and less ready to believe that Capitalism and Democracy are real even when everyone tells you over and again.

Power will always be two things. Wealth and knowledge. In the US the everyday middle class guy on the street actually has none. They will wake up to this though soon im sure and set about putting it right.
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inpatient
Jun 1, 2013 6:56pm
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a great article which everyone will learn something from

http://www.upbeatlearning.com/essays/economic-globalization-means-end-nation-state-discuss


The containment of power shifting to the individual becomes an impossibility in a globalized world.

Karl Marx predicted all of this long ago.
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inpatient
Jun 1, 2013 10:32pm
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[quote=jaygee;6723279]
Quoting inpatient
This will be my last post on this thread.

lol. No it will not,
jaygee your still here? thought you had climbed back under a rock...

I added more posts because someone actually entered the debate that actually had something meaningful to say.

What do you make of dancingphils post? i thought you would be breaking out the bazookas bro.
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inpatient
Jun 2, 2013 10:29am
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Some great points brought up here,

Firstly, Sywa. Much of the USA is like a 3rd world country too. Just take a drive through parts of New Mexico or Missisipi and Texas and you will see people living in conditions that are similar to what i seen in Thailand and Vietnam. It seems to be evident everywhere.

Kidbroge, The Euro was establiched with that end goal in mind. Hatched by the French and Germans and it has significantly destabilised the Dollar already since its inception. Already the GDP of the EU is higher than that of the US with more people using Euro's. The deciding factor was always going to be the British. If the British joined the Euro (the 5th largest economy in the world) the Dollar would be over inside of a year. London is the largest financial center in the world and they trade oil (Brent Crude) Suddenly that starts happening in Euros then the pressure to go through London (as it will be cheaper will be huge). Compare the price of Brent oil to that of the oil price on the NYSE. Its the old special bond that keeps the British loyal and singles them out for distain among the rst of Europe. The whole Iraq war was to do with trading oil in Euros (or anything else that is not dollars). The US could not accept what it would mean for them. It is why Europe (France and Germany) wanted no part. Only really the British were up for it.

I dont know about the reserve currency thing and it was never my argument. It will obviously contribute to the downfall of the US but my statement was simply that the Chinese (and Indians) will replace the USA as the worlds super power. This will be in our lifetime too. It will be earlier if the British join the Euro or if the US ruins itself from the inside before China have the time to get things together and continue the growth they have seen over the past 15 years.

In terms of the energy supply and waste etc. Jumper is correct. As these nations continue to develop and consume more and more the sad fact is that the standard of living will average out and the people of the USA have in many ways seen their best days in terms of living standards. Now im not saying they will end up living like the Kenyans but they wont be able to afford themselves the luxuries they are used to in the same wasteful way as before.
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inpatient
Jun 2, 2013 12:14pm
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Jaygee, i know what your trying to say and in terms of average living standards you are correct. That is not the argument though.

If we were looking at GDP per capita your point of arguing about the relevance of GDP per capita would mean that Luxembourg or Qatar are the most powerful nations in the world?

If anyone took the time to read the article i posted it clearly shows how in the future power will move away from nation into companies. A global marketplace irradicates the need for nations with power. China in their semi communist state hae a better way of controlling their own wealth for a while yet but over the long term it will be pointless.

Goldman Sachs already call their members citizens and we need to be prepared for the world to be run by major companies with vast wealth and the flexibility to just relocate when things happen that they dont like.
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inpatient
Jun 2, 2013 1:08pm
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Quoting Manudatinh
LMAOL!
A typical white boy who is fool of shit all day long can't get anything done!
When are you going to start buying the Yuan and lose everything once again?
Good luck!

Manudatinh,

Your even now starting to get racist. Your an embarrassment to the nation you represent.

I think you should stop now since your attacks have become not only more wide of the mark but also more and more derogatory and personal.
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inpatient
Jun 2, 2013 1:43pm
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Quoting Guest
The Brits made it through the industrial revolution with conditions much like that being seen in China today.

So did the US.

China is the new economic frontier for the Globalists and they will milk it for everything its worth before they abandon it in the same manner they are in the process of abandoning the US now. But that is years away and China still has a long way to go the question is when will The US lose its dominance in the world like the Brits did?

Great post and in my opinion you see this exactly as it is.
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Manudatinh
May 31, 2013 9:52am — Edited
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Quoting Murdetrain
Lmao strong headline.

Edit: ROFL as if the Chinese currency could ever replace the us dollar, please do us a favor and go visit China and tell me that's what a super Powe looks like. Not to mention the fact that they gave up their constriction of the world's tallest building (gee I wonder why?) China hasbhit a plateau, and I doubt it will ever get over it. At least not in my lifetime
This author is full of shit! One thing I am sure that the author will be DEAD before the DOLLAR!
The communists will fall apart in 2014, and China's banking system will collapse! Then guess what, its people will dump the Chinese Yuan and collect the DOLLARS. I am sure you've been aware that the communists have NO RESPECT! They don't give a shit about the world's regulations. Obviously, they won't be in the game if they don't respect the game's rules, they will get their ass kicked badly.
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Manudatinh
May 31, 2013 12:04pm — Edited
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Quoting jonathanhk
With due respect, at least they write better English and construct better sentences than you do

Yet another american fat dreamer
Seems like an Englishman having problem understand my simple English writing. That is your big problem dude!
As a trader I rather spend more time reading the charts instead of writing fancy sentences. If I spend time to write better English then you'll not understand it anyway!
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Manudatinh
May 31, 2013 6:57pm
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Quoting inpatient
You need to grow up and learn about the world before posting sily thngs on a public forum viewed by many others from around the world. It is people like you that make us look stupid to every other nation on the planet.
Nobody made you look stupid, that's just the way you are! People can tell when they look at your profile! You're the one who need to grow up and learn more about China. Go out and make friend with Chinese then they'll tell you about the real life in that country. Good luck fool!
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Manudatinh
May 31, 2013 11:24pm
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Quoting inpatient
I have a degree from Bristol University in Economics. I have lived in 4 different continents, made millions in business, lost everything twice
LOL "lost everything twice" What did you learn from Bristol University? Did they teach you about risk management at all? You better stop blaming people make you look stupid. Thanks for the entertainment by the way.
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Manudatinh
Jun 2, 2013 12:25pm
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Quoting inpatient
Actually i lost everything twice in business, i have only been trading for 18 months. Both during the economic downturn in the US between 2008 and 2011. My risk management in trading is fine and nothing at all to do with this conversation. It seems that whenever someone that can not structure an argument properly they resort to trying to find anything else to turn on. Very predictable from you.
LMAOL! There's no reason to argue with someone who doesn't even have a common sense. A millionaire who's holding a BU degree in economics, "lost everything twice during the economic down turn", (Very impressive performance!) and you're saying your risk management is fine?
"This will be my last post on this thread." You can't even make up your own mind on this thread! Hello!!! Am I missing something here?

My point has been made! My relevant counter argument is right on your screen, only a few clicks away. China history, communists history, what have they done, what they're doing, what they'll do and how far they can go in the future is right there. You THINK you're SMART, then I'll let you figure it out yourself. In fact, you're really good at that! Gathering info from the web put it in your wordings to made it sounds like your own. Hah!
A typical white boy who is fool of shit all day long but can't get anything done!
When are you going to start buying the Yuan and lose everything once again?
Good luck!
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Mong00se
Jun 3, 2013 10:37am
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Can't wait for Squeeze or Spreadbetter to respond to this

Quoting dancingphil
Typically 5 x 100 lot trades from the M5. I hate being in a trade longer than 30 minutes, but on ranging days I often scoop 100 pips over a 4 hour period.

I'm a moody trader; I have to be in the mood to trade - feeling myself in-tune with the market and all that shit.
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Squeeze
May 31, 2013 5:26am
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The biggest challenge we face (wrt China's growth) is their energy consumption. If they begin to consume energy in similar volume to the USA then all our lights will go out. The USA uses 25% of the globe's energy supply with 5% of the globe's population, if China also used up 25% we'd be FUBAR. If they consumed on a pro rata basis vis a vis the USA then...gulp...

The moves we're seeing in the M.E. are representative of China's exponential growth and demand, thousands of Chinese workers left Libya without so much of a whimper, I doubt they can afford to give up any more ground, contracts and influence.


Quoting Ill-b-back
Funny, some are talking about the "present", when the article is referencing a possible/probable "future".

I agree, the tone of the article was strong, probably too strong, but many valid points.

China is doing it the hard way, forging relationships, investing in future economies and keeping it's favourite trading partner afloat.

With a long history of a frugal, servant population, todays and past Chinese have been paving the way for future generations.

The precise opposite of the West.

shame on us...
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attrium
Jun 2, 2013 8:58am
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Too much worries far too early for nothing. Things don't go as easily and as fast, as many of you would think.
Many of you talk about the collapse of the USD, or the US and so... It is simple, countries and economies are connected. One singled out can do only as much. I don't think that the Fed or the US in general is concerned about China taking over. The day they will be, you'll see the outcome. All they have to do is create a political mess in the country, and the chaos will spread very fast. Chaos destroys wealth, destroys systems, destroys countries, nations. It always been like that. And if the US goes down, brings everyone else with her. Why do you think the Fed pumped so much money into the economy? And in fact, what happened in 2008-2009 is that the Fed saved New York, by saving the banks. You wouldn't believe, but New York is the engine of the world, and will stay like that for many years to come. And none of us wishes for that city to collapse, because with it everyone else will. I am sure you don't want to see a 50% to 70% unemployment out there, now would you? But I guess for many of you it is or sounds like fun dying of hunger.
So stop complaining and do your homework. And besides these scare-crow articles making me sick every time some dumb-ass idiot is putting it out here or everywhere. But I guess they have to earn a salary, too; - so...
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irongoose
Jun 2, 2013 12:49pm
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One great thing about forex trading is no matter what is happening as long as the world doesn't switch to a single currency there is always money to be made. And after watching the EU experiment I don't think to many countries will want to be aboard for a one world currency.
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irongoose
Jun 2, 2013 12:56pm
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Quoting dancingphil
This is the smartest comment that has been made for a while on this thread. And I agree totally; that I have no vested interest in a World currency and that I see no prospects for there being one.
Thank you. :-)
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jonathanhk
May 31, 2013 2:46am
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Quoting rootkit
yuan is not even freely exchangeable ... stop joking
U are a joke, you need to get out more! Go visit the central banks in asia (not china) and find out what's happening to yuan (aka rmb). RMB is indeed gearing up for what's to come, IMHO.

So many noobs (not you) here who are still living in their big fat american dreams, o well the world still spin with or without these noobs
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jonathanhk
May 31, 2013 2:47am
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Quoting dancingphil
All true words mate.

I've only lived in China for 6+ years, so what I know is nothing at all. What they suffered before communism and during it is not something I wish to torture my mind about.

As a people, they are truly wonderful, generous and family oriented, anti-war and peaceful people.

I am an Australian; I wish I could say the same about Australians and their blindly following America into pretext-created wars.

As for China doing it hard; I'd much rather be a Chinese than an American.

China's FEAR of America has not spawned...
+10m, especially the last 2 sentences, haha!!!
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jonathanhk
May 31, 2013 9:56am
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Quoting Manudatinh
I am sure you've been aware that the communists have NO RESPECT! The don't give a shit about the world's regulations. Obviously, they won't be in the game if they don't respect the game's rules, they will get their ass kicked badly.
With due respect, at least they write better English and construct better sentences than you do

Yet another american fat dreamer
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Sywa
Jun 2, 2013 7:24am
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China is big, and own the most of the population in the world. I agree that china is on the early stage, because the wealth of its people in the country is not even, in big city you can see people living in expensive apartment, city like guangzhou, shenzen their apartment will cost like RMB20,000/sqm for Beijing and Shanghai are like RMB 30k to RMB 40k/sqm and its only usage right only after 70 years the right goes to Goverment Again. But in a poor province, if you can get enough food for a day its already not bad.
What I'm trying to say is, China is in Inflation Period, and China is also try to maintain their Economy stability, Property Price, Fresh Graduate Employment problem and all. I agree for now can't expect China to replace Dollar and Personally I think they also doesn't want to do this also. IF Yuan getting strong, their export will become lower, which is not good for this productive country because many people will become jobless (They will try to keep product price to be very competitive).
But 10 or 15 years from now ? who knows ?
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wlarimer
Jun 2, 2013 3:14pm — Edited
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there's plenty of peer reviewed papers proving that's wrong.

The reliance on fracking is frightening and the projections are wildly optimistic, similarly the USA will have to make a choice between which is the most precious resource; clean water or gas, little point in ruining the water tables for the sake of keeping the house warm in winter.


In every field that is being exploited now, the gas or tight oil is far below the groundwater through bedrock. That is why the entertainment news companies can only stand back and shout fearful detractions about fracking. The water level is in many cases a MILE above the oil or gas. Pretty easy to effectively seal.

As far as "peer reviewed" data, the data on the spreadsheet proves the effectiveness of the new horizontal/hydraulic fracturing technologies. It isn't going to work, it is working now and is just getting rolling and has tripled the recoverable oil supply for the world. It is indeed a game changing, once per century revolution.

No flash-in-the-pan fluke here amigo, this is a current day gold strike of massive proportion.
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bdebaere
Jun 3, 2013 2:48am
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Quoting kidbroge
What I am thinking about and no one has mentioned is our military. Who can mess with it or want to. Isn't that what is really keeping the dollar afloat. Dump our bonds and we'll drop our bombs. The 800 pound gorilla has spoken and always gets what it wants.
Quoting attrium
I don't think that the Fed or the US in general is concerned about China taking over. The day they will be, you'll see the outcome. All they have to do is create a political mess in the country, and the chaos will spread very fast. Chaos destroys wealth, destroys systems, destroys countries, nations. It always been like that. And if the US goes down, brings everyone else with her.
Such arrogance, such insolence, it shall be your downfall. The year the USD stops being a reserve currency is the year the USD collapses. Avoiding global collapse, containing it in the USA, is the very reason why a new reserve currency is sought.
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dancingphil
Jun 2, 2013 1:01pm
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Quoting irongoose
Thank you. :-)
True is simply true mate, it requires no thanks.
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dancingphil
Jun 3, 2013 12:07pm
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Haha, yeah 53 mate, and thanks.
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Ill-b-back
May 30, 2013 7:11pm
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Love it

The worlds 2 largest creditors jostling for position with the worlds largest (Gross) debtor.
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Ill-b-back
May 31, 2013 12:32am
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Good to meet another Aussie "Phil" by the way

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Murdetrain
May 30, 2013 3:05pm
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Lmao strong headline.

Edit: ROFL as if the Chinese currency could ever replace the us dollar, please do us a favor and go visit China and tell me that's what a super Powe looks like. Not to mention the fact that they gave up their constriction of the world's tallest building (gee I wonder why?) China hasbhit a plateau, and I doubt it will ever get over it. At least not in my lifetime
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sidhujag
May 31, 2013 11:44pm
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usd will die only when theres an alternative and not central bank related hello bitcoin litecoin and devcoin!
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sidhujag
Jun 3, 2013 1:04pm
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America sucks!
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inpatient
May 31, 2013 7:41pm
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Quoting jaygee
you talk too much

well at least that is something we agree on....ha
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regme
Jun 3, 2013 3:55am
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I still see US dollar has future. I don't see any other currency is ready in 10yrs from now. Most of Dollar news are from speculators to create volatility.
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McNish
May 31, 2013 2:54am
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Nice debate and a lot of info too. Just that "Get a job" thing is so out fashioned and very American sounding, Arrogant & Ignorant.
What is being talked about is the USD but the underlying arguments and counter arguments have a base from the past, present and the future alltogether. One just can't ignore any one on the tenses.
i too believe the USD is in troubled waters right now and unless some very harsh measures are taken in policy terms, the smart money will not support it. They have been living off wars for a long time now and the times have changed, so they have to find something new to live off on.

The biggest advantage i see with BRICS is their population and land mass. They will consume whatever is produced, so they don't need to bend over backwards to sell to anyone else.
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McNish
May 31, 2013 6:53am
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Quoting Squeeze
The biggest challenge we face (wrt China's growth) is their energy consumption. If they begin to consume energy in similar volume to the USA then all our lights will go out. The USA uses 25% of the globe's energy supply with 5% of the globe's population, if China also used up 25% we'd be FUBAR. If they consumed on a pro rata basis vis a vis the USA then...gulp...
Not sure if i agree with u there. There was a solar sterling co which filed for bankruptcy in 2011 owing to price wars from Chinese manufacturers. Till some time back, Germany was the world leader in solar manufacturing equipment only to be overtaken by China.
"The USA uses 25% of the globe's energy supply with 5% of the globe's population". This shows arrogance, unlike the way of life in Asian region.

Just pick up stats from various walks of life and you will see the inclusion of Chinese in them from the past two decades or so.
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Mong00se
Jun 3, 2013 7:52pm
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Who would have thought that would shut him up. Stay that way. LOL

Quoting Spreadbetter
.
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irongoose
May 30, 2013 4:48pm
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Seems like we hear a dying dollar story every time the dollar has a bad day.
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harry23
May 30, 2013 3:10pm
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wait until the US is exploiting all their oil reserves..... what a bs article!!
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Jumper1979
Jun 1, 2013 10:28am
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In just 15 years at current levels the Chinese will have a higher GDP than the US.
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Jumper1979
Jun 2, 2013 9:07am
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The USA uses 25% of the globe's energy supply with 5% of the globe's population, if China also used up 25% we'd be FUBAR. If they consumed on a pro rata basis vis a vis the USA then...gulp...
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kashif
May 30, 2013 4:21pm
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Quoting inpatient
And in terms of a platueau? 7% growth and likely double that of the US for the next 25 years. Possibly 3 times more.

US drowning in debt with a lazy, fat and uncompetitive population that will argue about every move the government make to cut spending.

Western kids are too busy playing video games it the 'whatever' generation. Chinese kids are ready to work 80 hour weeks for relatively nothing.
Completely agreed. All the US seems to be doing is accumulating more and more depth. They seem to think its their born right to spend without producing anything, that cant last forever.

US is heavily relying on spending to produce a healthy GDP, Meanwhile China is a manufacturing giant. Until they dont re energize the manufacturing industry (meaning become as competitive as the Chinese) Production just wont shift back to the US and really until that doesnt happen growth will be very limited.

Countries like holding foreign currencies so they can import things from the said country, If the US isnt producing anything why should countries hold their currency as a world reserve.
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finj.us
May 30, 2013 4:33pm
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The difference in mentality of the Chinese vs US workers is stark, I expect that over the years as China becomes more consumerist as a society this will change.

It was only 60-70 years ago that America was frugal and hard working, before the PR men got to work developing the consumerist mentality.
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jaygee
May 30, 2013 7:20pm
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yes, everything is going to be exactly the same as it is today for 15 years. You do some math. you seem to think that everything in china is rosy but i assure you, it is not. it is just another country with too many people and cheap labor that isn't going anywhere. I wonder how long their first depression will last. i wonder how many of the common people will put up with a real economic depression. whole cities with no one in them. lol. ya china is going to be in better shape than the US in 15 years. get a job. GDP per capita is a good measure of how the people of China are fairing compared to other economies. 93rd. dude. jamaica, belize, ecuador, maldives.....please
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Spreadbetter
May 31, 2013 1:52pm
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The meme tptb in the USA have rehearsed and are now publicising are that they're a couple of years away from energy independence, but there's plenty of peer reviewed papers proving that's wrong.

The reliance on fracking is frightening and the projections are wildly optimistic, similarly the USA will have to make a choice between which is the most precious resource; clean water or gas, little point in ruining the water tables for the sake of keeping the house warm in winter.

The American contributors to this section need to put aside their pre conceived prejudices and open their minds wrt the USA's continued economic dominance. We may be watching the end of an empire as a slow motion train wreck.

Quoting Guest
All of these points that you guys are making aren't important. Think of this:

The USA is a couple years from energy independence, and North American is where a massive amount of the food is grown.

So in the end......who really holds the cards?

China could collect the debt and refuse to lend, and we could refuse to pay. If that happens, HALF of the exports that country does would suddenly be gone. Before you ask the incredibly dumb question of "where would we get crap to fill WalMarts?"

There are plenty of less hostile countries...
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Spreadbetter
May 31, 2013 2:21pm
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Me accused of a lack of real world understanding hahaha, there's something I'm not accused of often :-)

Fox News? American tv channel spitting out right wing propaganda for its audience of bigots and zealots? We don't recieve it in Europe with standard packages, certainly not in the three properties I call home in three different European countries ;-) Annoying that I have to show my passport when travelling throughout Europe, ports and moorings can be a pain.

Quoting inpatient
My friend i am an American citizen and i have zero pre conceived prejudices. Will admit though from my fellow citizens i am embarrassed at your lack of real world understanding. Too much Fox news while sitting in your arm chair. You probably dont even have a passport.
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harryodal
Jun 1, 2013 2:54am
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Quoting inpatient
made millions in business, lost everything twice,

Peace
You seem not capable of managing risk, your brash views is another indication of this besides your self confession in the quote. Are you assuming that the school of thought to which the China belongs will become dominant in world politics and economics? That when it happens my friend will reset history and set us back a thousand years especially on the political front. We are referring to a nation that is still half closed to the rest of the world and has in place a heavily regulated information dissemination system. Well, be informed that the global economy will not want such to be it's pivotal currency. What this article is stating is what we got during the cold war days where writers and TV producers had visions of nuclear holocaust and nuclear winters. Get real, they can never come to pass because the breaks will always be applied before we reach the edge of the cliff. The US is bad as a dominant world power but China will definitely take it to a whole new level and the world knows this.
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Spreadbetter
Jun 1, 2013 3:59am
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It did seem out of character and out of context :-)

Quoting inpatient
Spreadbetter, none of this was aimed at you and i apologise if that was not clear. You seem to be fairly accurate and balanced in your posts and just wanted to clarify that i was in no way referring to you negatively.

Peace
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kidbroge
Jun 2, 2013 12:20am
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What I am thinking about and no one has mentioned is our military. Who can mess with it or want to. Isn't that what is really keeping the dollar afloat. Dump our bonds and we'll drop our bombs. The 800 pound gorilla has spoken and always gets what it wants. Peace through strength, unless war breaks out to decimate our capabilities. Then the world can dictate its demands. I hope I'm wrong and this never happens and only economic principles dictate things. Will the Euro be the one to prevail eventually, as it seems it was created to replace the dollar at some point down the road ? The Euro sucks now but if they begin selling bonds will China then switch gears and buy there bonds instead to make this new reserve currency possible. China is too young to be on top just yet. They are new to the globalization scene and have more to do internally. The Europeans I believe will get their act together. Any thoughts?
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jaygee
Jun 2, 2013 10:02am
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Quoting attrium
Too much worries far too early for nothing. Things don't go as easily and as fast, as many of you would think.
Many of you talk about the collapse of the USD, or the US and so... It is simple, countries and economies are connected. One singled out can do only as much. I don't think that the Fed or the US in general is concerned about China taking over. The day they will be, you'll see the outcome. All they have to do is create a political mess in the country, and the chaos will spread very fast. Chaos destroys wealth, destroys systems, destroys...

yes. agree
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Ursa
Jun 2, 2013 10:37am
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This is the dumbest article that has been posted in a long time on FF.

1. The Japanese Yen is worthless and getting deeper every day. Look at the USD/JPY
daily and weekly charts. How the heck could anyone think the Yen is going to
give the the USD "a run for it's money"?

2. The Chinese economy relies fully on the USD. America is the largest buyer of
the products being made by this "so called" manufacturing giant.
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-12/27/content_27527041.htm
If the dollar drops, then the Yuan won't be far behind.

3. While China is growing, so is the pollution and discontent with many of the
working class that are producing all of the product. Suicide rates are up, the
workers are living in deplorable conditions and they are being exploited. Shanghai
is so polluted that the government is considering moving the capitol.

4. The whole system is unsustainable. While values will fluctuate, "The Death of
the Dollar" is a foolish idea! I would actually forecast unrest in China due to an
uprising of the working class which will cause the Yuan to drop in the next decade.

5. America is producing many, many quality products. Chinese consumers actually are
willing to pay a premium for American products as they know that the quality will
far surpass Chinese made.
http://info.usa-c.com/2013/02/06/u-s-and-chinese-consumers-willing-to-pay-more-for-made-in-usa-products/
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jaygee
Jun 2, 2013 12:04pm
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lol phil. even including cost of living doesn't change those numbers much. Your obvious bias is laughable. China is no closer to being the economic super power as its gdp neighbors ecuador, thailand, algeria...? lol. You cant compete on an international level when your people make 6k a year. It is a 3rd world dump. we use it for cheap manufacturing and even that use is waning. There are other 3rd world dump countries ready to help out. You are either a foreigner with an ax to grind or a limbaugher who thinks the world is about to end. all zerohedgy are we phil? O thats right, the world is going to end in 2-3 years. And in 2-3 years, it will end 2-3 years later. You just miscalculated. lol. so lame
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jaygee
Jun 3, 2013 8:59am
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A lot of people are paranoid to the hilt too. How are you "invested" if you scalp for a living? Isn't that counter to your trading style? If we are talking 18-36 months down the road, how can you scalp that? Do you subscribe to zerohedge? The end of the world and all?
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coanks
Jun 3, 2013 10:37am
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Quoting irongoose
One great thing about forex trading is no matter what is happening as long as the world doesn't switch to a single currency there is always money to be made. And after watching the EU experiment I don't think to many countries will want to be aboard for a one world currency.
Like this
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jaygee
Jun 3, 2013 11:54am
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Quoting dancingphil
There's an old card game called Euchre; also called Rickety Kate or the Black Bitch that I used to play 30 years ago when I was cop. What I noticed then is that the effective strategies all changed as you added a new player to the game. 3 player Euchre is not the same as 4 player, which is not the same as 5 player Euchre etc.

Forex is the same way. Trading 500 lots is very different that 0.5 lots. And I do aspire to growing to 100,000 lot trading when I have cleared my mind of what the effective strategies will be for 30-100 pip scalps each...
You are giving your age away with Euchre. Haven't played it in ages. My dad taught me. Most certainly trading larger lots is a bit more challenging. ofc finding the liquidity at the right time of day is paramount for me. The right pair helps too. I have done some x axis studies that has helped me with the t.o.d. Good luck. Finally someone that actually trades and has a brain for a switch.
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sypherBG
May 30, 2013 4:52pm
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Every empire has a rise, top and fall. Seems like US is in a fall for a few years now, China is in rise and close to the top ... The cycle is well known in history.
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rootkit
May 30, 2013 5:25pm
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yuan is not even freely exchangeable ... stop joking
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harryodal
May 30, 2013 5:05pm
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Chinese Yuan? Lmao come on man get real.
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Trader#F0C9
May 30, 2013 5:54pm
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I'm curious. Everyone thinks the United States doesn't
"make anything anymore." Take a drive across the United States and visit all the manufacturing centers.

A country doesn't have to make Steel and other crude elements to be a center of manufacturing. The United States has grown up.

China (a communist country) is still at a very base stage of their development.

Comparing them to the United States is like comparing Tungsten to lead.
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jaygee
May 30, 2013 6:19pm
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China is 93rd in gdp per capita. Right in there with several Central American countries fighting for the right to be called the up and coming dump of the world.
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Trader#52D5
May 31, 2013 1:04am
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we are nt comparing nations and their economies here, but tlking about holding which currencies. country don't even kw hw d chinese currency looks like tlk more of holding it.. d US dollars is stocked and being traded in most of the world's Nations. china use the US dollars for biz...
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livingston12
May 31, 2013 5:31am
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The China Yuan want become world currency only got 1 method.........

collect all the gold from worldwide,

Like what US rop UK world currency status.......

But will they?
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Trader#B94B
May 31, 2013 8:48am
Permalink
All of these points that you guys are making aren't important. Think of this:

The USA is a couple years from energy independence, and North American is where a massive amount of the food is grown.

So in the end......who really holds the cards?

China could collect the debt and refuse to lend, and we could refuse to pay. If that happens, HALF of the exports that country does would suddenly be gone. Before you ask the incredibly dumb question of "where would we get crap to fill WalMarts?"

There are plenty of less hostile countries out there that can produce toxic drywall, dog food, and stainless steel that somehow rusts. China my ass.
Reply
jaygee
May 31, 2013 7:11pm
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inpatient sounds familiar. who were you in your last ff life?
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jaygee
May 31, 2013 7:31pm
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you talk too much
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Spreadbetter
Jun 1, 2013 3:58am
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He's infinitely more readable and provides more interesting posts for group debate than some on here though eh? ;-)

Quoting jaygee
you talk too much
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jaygee
Jun 1, 2013 9:35pm
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[quote=inpatient;6722957]This will be my last post on this thread.

lol. No it will not,
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Trader#F2AE
Jun 2, 2013 11:20am
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The Brits made it through the industrial revolution with conditions much like that being seen in China today.

So did the US.

China is the new economic frontier for the Globalists and they will milk it for everything its worth before they abandon it in the same manner they are in the process of abandoning the US now. But that is years away and China still has a long way to go the question is when will The US lose its dominance in the world like the Brits did?
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jaygee
Jun 2, 2013 11:39am
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GDP per capita

USA 6th 49,922 intl$/person

China 93rd 9162 intl/$/person

India 133rd 3830 intl$/person
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jaygee
Jun 2, 2013 2:10pm
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are we at our last post yet? lol. Nope, still more intelligence to impart perhaps?
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Schminner
Jun 3, 2013 12:06am
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If I get a nickel for every time I hear the dollar is dying, I'd be rich and would not have to fiddle with this forex market.
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jaygee
Jun 3, 2013 8:38am
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So of course, you are short dollar futures in a large way. Please post your dollar short trades in real time so we can keep track of your progress. Thank you in advance.
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jaygee
Jun 3, 2013 9:31am
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well most of that makes sense. how long time wise is a scalp for you? are you staring at a 1m chart?
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jaygee
Jun 3, 2013 10:03am
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lol ya 30 mins is a long scalp for me. now 30 secs sounds more like it. but ya 5m and 60m are my scalpers. always an eye on the longer terms for s/r too. lots of charts to watch.
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Spreadbetter
Jun 3, 2013 12:38pm
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.

Quoting Mong00se
Can't wait for Squeeze or Spreadbetter to respond to this
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Yeow Boon
Jun 3, 2013 9:40pm
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nothing stays up there forever. what goes up, must come down.

the Chinese RMB taking over the USD, not now. but in future, it might be. When? it is anybody's guess.
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Trader#FC1D
Jun 3, 2013 1:16am
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Quoting jaygee
are we at our last post yet? lol. Nope, still more intelligence to impart perhaps?
It's better to read then your add shorts or longs entries with no justifications
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Trader#BB04
Jun 3, 2013 2:43am
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Quoting Guest
It's better to read then your add shorts or longs entries with no justifications
This comment I must say is the best I read here!!!
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