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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #20,921
  • Sep 16, 2012 10:07pm Sep 16, 2012 10:07pm
Hey guys. Possible H&S on daily Silver chart. Worth while having this one on the list.
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  • #20,922
  • Edited 1:32am Sep 17, 2012 1:14am | Edited 1:32am
Quoting Mr.C
Hey guys. Possible H&S on daily Silver chart. Worth while having this one on the list.
Well anything is possible but I would suggest that this is not very likely.

Momentum is behind further moves to the upside - both technical and fundamental - though I would not be surprised at some sort of pause/retracement after the recent surges...

IMHO H&S formations are all too easy to see - we are pattern-seeking mammals - but this one looks quite messy given how much wider the potential right shoulder would have to be.....

Plus the strength of the suggested neckline at $26 has been tested numerous times and shown to be pretty resilient. If it were to break then the H&S would imply a move to $13 - which I don't see happening....

beeb
  • #20,923
  • Sep 17, 2012 1:42am Sep 17, 2012 1:42am
Quoting beeb
Well anything is possible but I would suggest this is not too likely.

Momentum is behind further moves to the upside - both technical and fundamental - though I would not be surprised at some sort of pause/retracement after the recent surges...

IMHO H&S formations are too easy to see and this one looks quite messy given how much wider the potential right shoulder would have to be.....

Plus the strength of the potential neckline at $26 ish has been tested numerous times and shown to be pretty resilient. If it were to break then the H&S would imply...
Can't argue on your statement that at this point everything is possible. Of course - these are just lines in the sand. Regarding the end of upside move: also could be but there are no sell signals yet - are there? So that was my point as that line, that zone (doesn't really matter if it would become a H&S or not) could become the first more serious resistance zone.

The 'neckline' as a strong support @ $26 - good point. But I would be very happy to travel from $35,6 to $26 and it would not matter at that time if it would be broken or not. There would be enough profit. Also I would like to advice that trend lines, s/r levels that have already got three price touches are likely to be penetrated with the 4th approach of the price.

Also we have a MACD weekly debt to ~$14,5 so at some point Silver is going to be cheap again.

Good comments and remarks beeb.

Cheers.

C.
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  • #20,924
  • Sep 17, 2012 1:56am Sep 17, 2012 1:56am
Quoting Mr.C
Can't argue on your statement that at this point everything is possible. Of course - these are just lines in the sand. Regarding the end of upside move: also could be but there are no sell signals yet - are there? So that was my point as that line, that zone (doesn't really matter if it would become a H&S or not) could become the first more serious resistance zone.

The 'neckline' as a strong support @ $26 - good point. But I would be very happy to travel from $35,6 to $26 and it would not matter at that time if it would be broken or not. There...
Personally I am not ready to stand in front of silver and short it.....

I'm long from near the beginning of this move and am protected with trailing stops. I would be happy to see silver at $26 again but the chances of that happening and more especially that level breaking are to my mind not good given the fundamentals....

Don't understand what you mean by "MACD weekly debt..."

beeb
  • #20,925
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:11am Sep 17, 2012 2:11am
The weekly MACD looks to be showing strength from a low level to me.

More important to my analysis are the 60,3,3 stochs which have crossed up from under 20 for the first time since 2008 AND broken the downtrend shown in green.

There is also an unbroken trendline on price from 2008 shown in black.....

beeb
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  • #20,926
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:40am Sep 17, 2012 2:40am
Quoting beeb
The weekly MACD looks to be showing strength from a low level to me.

More important to my analysis are the 60,3,3 stochs which have crossed up from under 20 for the first time since 2008 AND broken the downtrend shown in green.

There is also an unbroken trendline on price from 2008 shown in black.....

beeb
Have you ever heard of MACD must reach targets? The numbers I mentioned ($14..) are for future but eventually the price will travel south to give back the MACD debt. This is what I had in mind. This is how I use the MACD. Cross overs that are below/above the water level to see the possible must reach targets. The first one is pointing up to ~37,64 - that means that the price will reach this point. When - this thing is harder to tell. Especially when we're looking at the weekly chart. And there is another one left behind showing to ~$14,5. No orders are to be taken using solely MACD as you might already know. But it is good to use as an extra tool.
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  • #20,927
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:52am Sep 17, 2012 2:52am
Quoting Mr.C
Have you ever heard of MACD must reach targets? The numbers I mentioned ($14..) are for future but eventually the price will travel south to give back the MACD debt. This is what I had in mind. This is how I use the MACD. Cross overs that are below/above the water level to see the possible must reach targets. The first one is pointing up to ~37,64 - that means that the price will reach this point. When - this thing is harder to tell. Especially when we're looking at the weekly chart. And there is another one left behind showing to ~$14,5. No orders...

I don't see how this analysis helps your potential bearish H&S from above.....

All I see is a bullish weekly MACD crossover from a low level which would tend to point to higher prices. I agree that if MACD turns down from overbought and crosses, you are likely to see lower prices. But here it has done the opposite....

Also what is this $14? Are you saying that SI is going to go to $14 some time in the future or are you saying it is going to decline by $14 at some point?

Thanks

beeb
  • #20,928
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:32am Sep 17, 2012 4:32am
Quoting beeb
I don't see how this analysis helps your potential bearish H&S from above.....

All I see is a bullish weekly MACD crossover from a low level which would tend to point to higher prices. I agree that if MACD turns down from overbought and crosses, you are likely to see lower prices. But here it has done the opposite....

Also what is this $14? Are you saying that SI is going to go to $14 some time in the future or are you saying it is going to decline by $14 at some point?

Thanks

beeb
It doesn't. The MACD target is just there. It is still too far to use as a TP or a possible price 'magnet'. But it will be reached at one point - that is tested. Overbought/oversold - I don't care. That is the point beeb - we understand the MACD our way and have a different approach to the situation while using it. Here are some more MACD debt examples on H4 this time. All the lime lines are possible targets now. But we need an entry signal - MACD doesn't show that. PA does.

RE the $14..- yes, I believe that Silver will get back to this price some time in future. Possibly not near future.

C.
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  • #20,929
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:41am Sep 17, 2012 4:41am
Quoting Mr.C
RE the $14..- yes, I believe that Silver will get back to this price some time in future. Possibly not near future.

C.
Unfortunately we don't do belief here....lol

Is this from a technical viewpoint or fundamental viewpoint? Can you please explain....

The chances of it happening are, in my view, negligible given the technical base and overwhelming fundamentals but I am interested to hear your reasons....

beeb
  • #20,930
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:59am Sep 17, 2012 4:59am
Quoting Mr.C
...
$14..- yes, I believe that Silver will get back to this price some time in future. Possibly not near future....
Possibly never...but hey, you got the rolex from forex so maybe your the expert, who's telling you all this, your indicators, hmmm, your MACD must be really hating you if he tells you silver's gonna touch the 14$lvl, just kiddin (or not), i mean, if you heard something like: the FOMC is gonna print silver i might just believe you...trust me or not...if i had bigger margin i would buy and buy and buy and buy gold and silver without even looking back to any charts or analysis, this time next year 1700lvl will look cheap as hell, the QE and the FOMC conference told me everything i wanted to hear...US economy IS in big shit and they are trying to "repair" the mess they have done inflating again the housing bubble...
  • #20,931
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:04am Sep 17, 2012 5:04am
Quoting beeb
Unfortunately we don't do belief here....lol

Is this from a technical viewpoint or fundamental viewpoint? Can you please explain....

The chances of it happening are, in my view, negligible given the technical base and overwhelming fundamentals but I am interested to hear your reasons....

beeb
It is hard to understand what could possibly happen for the price to drop so sharply at the moment, I agree beeb. But this technical approach (the MACD debts) has worked numerous times earlier so I believe this one too. Future will tell us more and I don't really bother about it at the moment. Too far and I don't like predicting anything this far.

C.
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  • #20,932
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:11am Sep 17, 2012 5:11am
Quoting Mr.C
It is hard to understand what could possibly happen for the price to drop so sharply at the moment, I agree beeb. But this technical approach (the MACD debts) has worked numerous times earlier so I believe this one too. Future will tell us more and I don't really bother about it at the moment. Too far and I don't like predicting anything this far.

C.

Nothing I have ever seen to do with MACD would predict a drop to $14. If it is so far in the future/unlikely why waste time by mentioning it?

In the meantime I think you should probably read up on the fundamentals - they matter more in pm's than in forex....

I'm sorry this is just stupid

beeb
  • #20,933
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:21am Sep 17, 2012 5:21am
  •  Atom
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: An atom..no more..probably less! | 44 Posts
I would like to go long on gold but I am not comfortable with the break of this trend line.
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  • #20,934
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:30am Sep 17, 2012 5:30am
...drag a fib from 1525 to 1772 and wait for a retrace...
  • #20,935
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:32am Sep 17, 2012 5:32am
  •  SwissRaj
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: (¯`·._.· the lonely trader ·._.·´¯) | 109 Posts
Quoting fredric02
Man, thats why we have stop-losses...
Use them manage your risk and exposure.
haha
that's a long long story...

As you spend time trading (for real money) you'll learn about stops.
Not an easy thing to manage, you will discover with time

So, friends, let's face a new trading week!
good luck everybody
>>> psychology is more important than technicalities ^_^
  • #20,936
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:32am Sep 17, 2012 5:32am
Quoting musclemike
Possibly never...but hey, you got the rolex from forex so maybe your the expert, who's telling you all this, your indicators, hmmm, your MACD must be really hating you if he tells you silver's gonna touch the 14$lvl, just kiddin (or not), i mean, if you heard something like: the FOMC is gonna print silver i might just believe you...trust me or not...if i had bigger margin i would buy and buy and buy and buy gold and silver without even looking back to any charts or analysis, this time next year 1700lvl will look cheap as hell, the QE and the FOMC conference told me everything i wanted to hear...US economy IS in big shit and they are trying to "repair" the mess they have done inflating again the housing bubble...

I wonder if you were not telling the same story back in 2011.
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  • #20,937
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:34am Sep 17, 2012 5:34am
Quoting beeb
Nothing I have ever seen to do with MACD would predict a drop to $14. If it is so far in the future/unlikely why waste time by mentioning it?

In the meantime I think you should probably read up on the fundamentals - they matter more in pm's than in forex....

I'm sorry this is just stupid

beeb
Have a nice one.
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  • #20,938
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:34am Sep 17, 2012 5:34am
Quoting Mr.C
I wonder if you were not telling the same story back in 2011.
You've lost me at hello...


P.S. I also have long positions from last year @1835, if this your trying to say...and yes...i will buy some more when i get my margins up...
  • #20,939
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:51am Sep 17, 2012 5:51am
Quoting Mr.C
Have a nice one.

I was before you turned up and I will after you have gone and I will not be worrying about $14 silver



beeb
  • #20,940
  • Sep 17, 2012 5:54am Sep 17, 2012 5:54am
Quoting beeb
I was before you turned up and I will after you have gone and I will not be worrying about $14 silver



beeb
LOL.
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