GBP/USD outlook

I am starting this journal so I can share my weekly and sometimes daily outlook for the GBP/USD pair without cluttering the thread with my ideas
I will post my first chart later.

The buying pressure started in November or so last year and momentum achieved above 1.6 hints to me we are in a retracement and headed higher in the near future, prob next month. The very sluggish bearish PA from 63 strengthens my view. We fell 150 pips in the first week and about 90 pips last week. 1.6 looks to be on the cards, then 5950 (assuming we move lower this week).
We have closed around the low of this week and below last weeks low, so expect further down pressure this week.

hi ill-b-back,

i cant get enough of cable,so looking forward to your perspective .

i agree i think we shouldnt be surprized to see 15980 area this week.
the problem at the moment is this new greece fiasco,its not going away.that could be the trigger for a larger drop.

good fortunes

cheers

My recent thoughts, work in progress.
I was watching PA and higher timeframes channels I have a channel connecting the last 2 monthly swing lows since the GFC, so it maybe a quarterly Channel or something like that (my TF's only go to Monthly),
so I suspect this maybe a monthly Channel we are in that is still forming. But I am speculating. There's now a perfect descending 4 hr channel
formed (thanks to that news spike) from 63 and this last weeks close below the low of last week hints we have more to drop. I'm watching 6000 and 59 but 59 looks like a strong reaction point in the past for bulls and bears. It is very bullish and I am a long way from dropping my bullish view and I haven't seen dominant/strong selling pressure, just a temporary top at 63 before we continue up from support but I won't be getting too nervous if that TL goes. I put on a fib fan from this years low, and we are contained by the 38.2 fan, so if that one goes, ill watch the 50 along with PA. I do have a feeling well get to 59 the 38.2 fib but it's just an idea and seems a logical fib point. I think it will be a tough nut to crack if we get there.
I'll also be watching the 50 fib at 5768.

Hi Diceman, things are crazy in Europe and it should have prob collapsed a while ago. I think they will keep printing and this will give them time (but won't help in the long run). I also think the USD is on the way out, so I guess I am a bull until the market tells me otherwise. Cheers.

A very tricky place to trade today, I think I will leave cable alone today and see where she closes then maybe look for one tomorrow. I'm off to the members lounge

This is why I don't often day trade outside my system lol

To escape the one voice I will stay here for a while. Well, cable has been acting quite strange this past year and I feel the money printing and rescue of Europe has much to do with this. Is Europe way too important to the global economy to let it collapse? It could well be. This means more funny money (lots more) and the end of the USD reserve. The Pound was plucked from oblivion at the end of last year and it seems it is now hot property. Olympics prob adding to this. My system has been in a little disarray this Last month and has become a little unpredictable, which is very unusual. Anyway, I maintain a strong bullish view and screw the USD until told otherwise by the market.

I would not be at all surprised to reach 6150 - 62 then plunge to 60

Maybe codswallup, looks like a repeat of Friday last week perhaps, pushing higher, only to close low towards end of the day. May stay within the current descending channel and push towards support at 60. 59 area would be marvelous.

If we get a firm close below 61, I am selling with a first TP at 60 and see possibility of 59 area. I will be hedged with this sell.

This sluggish bearish PA reminds me very much of the top formed in mid 2010 or so. A nice bowl that I shorted for about a month from every spike. For some reason I shorted the spikes as they occurred while nowadays, I wait for the daily close. Maybe I am getting old or something

Got some decent confluence with 1.6 whole number and 1.59 area/38.2 fib with current descending 4hr TL and ascending fan lines.
That hidden bullish divergence only looks to be getting stronger as we descend.
Let's see if she plays out...

hi ill-be-back,

yes i tend to agree ,i was more inclined for longs yesterday whilst the rest of the money flow was looking for safty in the doller and some yen .but cable never really looked like falling .i guess the pound overall seems a better place to be than euros.

i wouldnt be surprized to see cable at initially 16130 to 40 level during london,but with so much unknown in euro crisis its somwhat a game of russian roulette.

Hi Dice, how's your trading going?
To be honest, I don't apply an ounce of fundies to trading. I only trade cable, and pure technicals. I do take an interest in broad picture fundies without getting bogged down in any details. This grinding bearish PA against the higher TF overall bullish trend hints to me she has a purpose in mind. I feel it is 59 area at the 38.2 fib and strong support but I do expect another reaction at 60 due to some support there and whole number and above mentioned confluence. Of course if she goes north big time from here....
With Europe, there have been so many drama calls and panic attacks, everyone should be out of there with there money by now. I think another round of QE is coming and this will keep things afloat. But this has no bearing on my trading. I will become a big time bear if and when the charts tell me and not a moment before.

Here's a nice weekly chart.
It shows a clearly broken TL in confluence with my 2 favourite moving averages, the 200SMA and 55EMA and the 38.2 fib at 1.59 area.
I am shorting back down to this area hoping to take some profit at 1.6.

were not to far away from are thoughts on cable,159 as you suggest is the lower channel level on my daily.which i also expect to see,

im intraday and presently got long on cable as it seems to want to retest top channel on my daily 16150 ish,

yes my trading is going very well thanks,i trade p/a ,point to point.

good trading

looks even better on the monthly

An interesting read
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/t...14207?FIELD9=3

Ok, we have hit that 38.2 fan and pierced the descending channel.
Im going to wait and see if/when I get a system entry. I don't think it will happen today with that downward pressure. holding hedge for now and watching 1.59/50 fan.