AUDUSD for informed traders

Traders looking for a civilised, informed, intelligent discussion re the Aussie dollar are welcome to post charts and comments here.

Serial pests and those incapable of respecting other traders will be banned from posting here.

To get the ball rolling, I'm interested in AU long @ .9860. Market may be ready to settle, keeping in mind the dead cat bounce that often happens after a period of volatility and market nerves.

When going long AU, I prefer to see resistance and bearish engulfing candles in the EUR/AUD cross. There is resistance on the EUR/AUD chart at this level (see below) and a sizeable gap, indicating that AU is not done with north just yet.

Let's see if AU retraces its steps, the S&P futures and Dow seem to be stabilising and recovering lost ground.

Good trading all.

The stair step up principle in a bull market - on a 15M or 30M chart you can observe how price will retrace to the previous resistance point, hold, then move north to eclipse the previous candles, then repeat the cycle - retrace to resistance (resistance becomes support), then eclipse again (which is what "buy the dip" is all about.)

The oscillator has bottomed out and is now turning up. AU often does well in the lead up to equities. When the US commences work for the day @ 7am US ET and immediately prior to US equities open, the EUR/AUD cross tends to sell down, giving AU a lift. The US session has a propencity to favour AU over the Euro.

If support doesn't hold @ .9860 and if the resistance on the cross doesn't hold up here @ 1.40710, then we know AU is likely to continue south.

long my position at 0.9975..
going to enter for another long.

My strategy - basically no SL.
I will just wait wait wait ..

Latest news:
Japan has managed to condemn the fire at nuclear plant 3.
Hope this bring a good news to everyone . . .

Hmmm, I won't enter long until those lines begin to turn north.

Regards,

Keep a watchful eye on the Kiwi and the EUR/NZD cross as well. Often the Kiwi will move ahead of the Aussie (because it is cheaper and easier for institutional traders to move price on this than the AU major), as is presently happening.

It will often follow that AU then follows suit (but not always), both AU and the Kiwi are risk sensitive pairs.

Guess we get to see how much Mrs Wantanabe
and her chums have been gamming this pair now.
Or am i completley off the mark with that?

Loaded and ready to buy @ 98.10. This is my last buy line. We'll see if it holds. Good trades to all!

Regards,

With you there Petra,9805 needs to hold
this down move for a bounce.

Went ahead and bought 2 lots @ 9815. Few pips one way or the other is not going to matter. Either it holds, or it doesn't.

Regards,

Will we make 300 pips today? Don't get to see that very often!

O M G

Fx-Petra i've really enjoyed the posts from you. what are your reasons your going LONG

hi mate, not saying going long is a bad idea, but just my opinion, 1hr, 2hrs, 4hrs are very bearish now.... whats your reason on long?

im so fuckin drunk right now but FUCKING A. look at this thing. we're at .9874 now??? after breaking 0.9829??? WOW.


aud/usd will be at 0.0000 in a week. NO DOUT ABOUT IT

Extremely strong support line @ 9800. We have been in this area before, multilple times. Each time price was rejected and sent back up. If 98 holds..... and right now it looks like it will (unless a mushroom cloud is spotted in Japan, and Lord I hope not...forex aside!) then it will be "hello" top of range near 1.0150, probably by Friday!

Regards,

Has been monitored the graph up down for the whole day..
seem like AU has started to stabilise..
at least for a period until now.
Hope this is going to continue.

Closed my .9840 @ .9843 accidentally.
But - long again at .9837 (this will be my last shot before another long at 0.97xx territory - will it reached? )
P.S. - Missed my 0.981x shooting @ Long..;(
It is a "nice shot" for Long at 0.9810.

Latest updates: 0.9874 0.9878
Day -2.145% H 1.0109 L 0.9815
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9974 0.9999 1.0024 1.0113 1.0138 1.0164
Trend Index : Slightly Bearish
OB/OS Index : Neutral

Looks like there is a short covering rally underway. Should re-test 9970 as resistance at somepoint (maybe tomorrow). If it gives way, back to the top we go! Traders who have made good money shorting A/U today will likley not need much encouragement to cover their shorts, as it is expensive to hold for multiple days.

Regards,

If that happens i will get drunk... with pure joy ^.^

I also added longs but did not manage to get them as low as you. I was down 15% on my account on AUD and NZD longs, nzd longs started @ 7.675 tho... i hedged most of the way down, i just could not catch every movement(some due to sleep, some due to simply not paying attention)

However it`s making some nice money by swaps alone, if it goes back up there... as i said, happy time.

I will stay awake to keep an eye on it, don`t want a 300 pip drop while i take a nap.


All the best,
Alexandru

Looks like equites in Europe and USA are starting to shake off the bad news in Japan and beginnig to move higher. There is probably no way they can end the day in the green.... but a good equity retrace would bode well for risk currencies... which have been slammed today (a/u chief among them)

Regards,

i got 3 post long....

I would feel a lot better about my longs with a daily close above 9950. That would leave the daily candle with a long, lonely looking tail on the downside! We'll see if we can get one more push up before close. Surely there are stops above 9970.

Regards,