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Trend Lines Don't Work

  • #21
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:21pm Jan 31, 2011 5:21pm
Trend lines sometimes work perfectly and PA obeys them to a few pips ( the same happens with fibs), but there are periods when they don't mean anything. The time period when TL's work is different. Sometimes it's a few hours, sometimes it's several days. I've had days when PA followed TL's when I was using other tools for trading and at the end of the day I regreted that I didn't use the TL's. On the next day I would try to use the TL's for trading and they would turn out unreliable. I don't know why they work sometimes, and sometimes don't. If anyone can explain that to me it would be great.

Some of you would say that TL's are unreliable when there are economic releases and news announcements, but I have seen TL's been obeyed during major news releases. The most striking was during a FOMC meeting minutes release when the knee jerk bounced right off the TL and continued in the trend direction. Why?
  • #22
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:29pm Jan 31, 2011 5:29pm
the same thing in every post BUT NO ONE OF YOU DONT KNOW WHY

I see

"trend lines do work" and thats all ALLL.. no idea why it work.. it just does.. LOL

DONT GET ME WRONG.. I did this for years.. I was a mindless sole doing trend lines for no reason.. never asked why the heck they work..

one day I realized what was making them appear to work.. and I come and present nicely a suggestion for you to explore why the heck it works... and no one cares.

it just does is good enough for all of you.. thats good enough for me too then.. as long as you keep trading mindlessly I could care less.. I have been nicer then I should have been I suppose
  • #23
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:30pm Jan 31, 2011 5:30pm
Quoting bfs
try using the (trend) cross of a 13 EMA and a 20 SMA. on one minute charts only, try using a 50 SMA, a 100 SMA, and a 200 SMA. for real adventure, use a 4-bar least squares with a 10-bar least squares. several years ago i wrote in FF about the magic of the bollinger bandwidth; readers in those days were too narrow minded. the BBW works very well in indicating the start of a trend; with the help of some MACDs ( and the aforementioned averages ) you'll know in what direction ( for a very...
can u link us to ur bolinger band
  • #24
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:32pm Jan 31, 2011 5:32pm
So even if we stop saying the "DONT WORK"

which we can also sum up right now that NEWYEAR498 believes they don't work.. and he believes they don't work because they are just a byproduct of something else.. and hes focusing on the car rather then the byproducts it left behind.. because I will know where my car is going better if I stop focusing on its pollution trail..

but besides that..

if we consider it does work.. it 100% works.. I still see no one asking WHY or have an answer to that
  • #25
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:34pm Jan 31, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting dragan53
can u link us to ur bolinger band
but do you even know what a bolinger band does?

still trading off anything without knowing what it does.. are you like many thinking its overbought and oversold?
  • #26
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:34pm Jan 31, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting newyear498
I still see no one asking WHY or have an answer to that
Exactly what I said in my post above I don't see what more there is to it
Time hides Nothing
  • #27
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:34pm Jan 31, 2011 5:34pm
if u really find trendlines to be uselesss just trade asia like i do,
enter on dojis (3 or more)
just read pure candlesticks,just we learned in mtm
lower shadow up bars in bull market are strenght ,and in bear market they are weakness(reversal)

...........read mtm
  • #28
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:38pm Jan 31, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting newyear498
but do you even know what a bolinger band does?

still trading off anything without knowing what it does.. are you like many thinking its overbought and oversold?
just because u dont know something,it doesnt mean other dont either
i iant an indicator lover guy,but im willing to try if it works
like evry indi its all based on moving averages
bollinger band is with ma simple and standard deviation
  • #29
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:39pm Jan 31, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Exactly what I said in my post above I don't see what more there is to it
Cindy I read your post and I feel you present the same points as me.. I am happy to see you share similar views..

I do feel that you can know where the 'big money' is buying and selling.. ofcourse you can only know this after the fact.. but you can no ahead of time where they will place there order if they decide to buy or sell.. but another topic completely

Otherwise I felt you share a similar kind of thinking if I interpreted correctly

thank you for you insights.. its nice to see a post different from the last 10 reworded IMO
  • #30
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:41pm Jan 31, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting newyear498

thank you for you insights.. its nice to see a post different from the last 10 reworded IMO
Ohhh ok gotcha!
Time hides Nothing
  • #31
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:56pm Jan 31, 2011 5:56pm
Quoting GEfx
OK, the "I know something you don't know" routine is getting old, and you are only on page 3 of your new thread.
This is your edge....if you don't have some sort of edge, you will not be successful for too long. I might add that my edge may be exactly the same as yours, but it is simply translated and interpreted differently.
  • #32
  • Jan 31, 2011 6:08pm Jan 31, 2011 6:08pm
There is no "i know something you dont"

because, I do not know what you know or don't know...

I am gathering information however that the majority of people support trend lines without knowing why they themselves have a personal concept of how and why they work.

Its pretty insightful.. well to me atleast
  • #33
  • Jan 31, 2011 6:11pm Jan 31, 2011 6:11pm
i will post a few of my charts which use the indicators i addressed. i trade the 6E (MERC MINI-EURO FUTURES CONTRACT); so that will be the charts.

have to fix the evening meal now, however i will post within four hours.

/s/ bfs

FYI: the bollinger bandwidth is the difference of the upper bollinger envelope and the lower bollinger envelope. the trick is finding the applicable chart time.


Quoting dragan53
can u link us to ur bolinger band
memores acti prudentes futuri.
  • #34
  • Jan 31, 2011 6:45pm Jan 31, 2011 6:45pm
I heard they work well on 1 minute timeframes?
lowest draw down possible please.
  • #35
  • Jan 31, 2011 6:59pm Jan 31, 2011 6:59pm
nothing to see here. don't feed the internet troll.

OP strongly believes that trendlines don't work. So it doesn't. Case closed. For those who believes it does work, then it does. Case closed.

In between all that bickering, a ton of reasons were given why it does or does not work. Choose 1 side of the story then profit from it. Case closed.

geez.
  • #36
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:21pm Jan 31, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting thelws
nothing to see here. don't feed the internet troll.

OP strongly believes that trendlines don't work. So it doesn't. Case closed. For those who believes it does work, then it does. Case closed.

In between all that bickering, a ton of reasons were given why it does or does not work. Choose 1 side of the story then profit from it. Case closed.

geez.

No I see what your saying.. but I was kindly suggesting some take it an intellectual step further by analyzing why and how the tools they use function and if they do or do not work.. how and why..

and as an intelligent life form that has the ability to see a tool within a rock.. have understanding in your tools..

but no.. trading is like the de-evolution of mankind.. "DRRR.. I use trend line.. I no not why it does it does.. it work tho, why you ask? because it does.. it does..

if I go ask someone right now "hey why does a knife work" they would probably say "because its sharp.. it can cut stuff.. etc."

but I say "whys a trend line work" I get "it does..", "well I believe it does", "I use them they are very useful most the time" etc.

I dont see anyone even suggesting theory why they work


But hey.. it may just be me.. I personally do not do things unless I know the inner workings.. guess I'm just an outcast
  • #37
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:54pm Jan 31, 2011 7:54pm
Quoting GEfx
Define "work".
no.. why should I have to define words for you.. when I say "theres nothing on tv" I don't mean there is literally every channel stopped broadcasting.. or to the extreme that there is not even a snow signal.. or even laking the existence of darkness...

you should be intelligent enough to understand means of communication

this is not the place for dictionary arguments

I will say tho that how I define work does not matter.. because this is not about me.. this is about the individual trader..

however that individual trader uses trend lines.. say trader johnny.. trader johnny likes trend lines and uses them... well johnny why do trend lines work?

well johnny will say uses trend lines (and I'll try to use a common trend line use) so johnny plots them and he anticipates that price will bounce off the trend line.. or when it breaks the trend line its heading the other way

that would be how trend lines work for johnny.. ok johnny.. so when price bounces off the trend line... well why does price bounce off the trend line.. and ok johnny.. price breaks trend line now its going the opposite way.. well why is that johnny.. how does your trend line tell us this.. why does it work.. what is the underlying cause for a reaction to this trend line?
  • #38
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:19pm Jan 31, 2011 8:19pm
definitely a troll
  • #39
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:30pm Jan 31, 2011 8:30pm
Quoting dragan53
definitely a troll
This is so absurd.. you lack the desire to understand why things in life work.. and that makes me a troll

I made an honest effort to share some logical thinking with this thread
  • #40
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:42pm Jan 31, 2011 8:42pm
Here's the post I was talking about earlier abt why trendlines work.. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2916795&postcount=11
 it might not be what you're looking for, but its from an intelegent known trader.

A good thead on this subject: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=227918

Newyear, have you read Nasim Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness"? I think you'd find it very interesting as I could not stop reading it.
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