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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 23, 2009 7:53am Dec 10, 2008 3:30am | Edited Oct 23, 2009 7:53am
Hi all,

starting this thread I will try to reach something that some already have done and most never will manage to do.

I want to make my first million by trading in the forex market starting with only 10,000 Euro over a period of 10 years. And I want to document it here so everyone can see if I fail or not.

10 years are a long period at least in the forex markets and market conditions will change in that period. So how will I try to achieve my goal?

The first two months I tried a pure mechanical approach using inside bars. This attempt failed. So now I just do simple discretionary trading using some fundamentals and simple technical stuff. I trade low leverage, usually 0.5:1 up to 2:1 per entry...

As I start my christmas/new year vacation soon I'll start this journey in January 09. You might ask why I post this right now if I primal start in January? Hmm... Don't know, have some time now so I do it.

So be warned this will be one of the most boring threads ever!

Tracking - last update 23-October-2009

Monthly Average: +8.20%
Estimated months to million at this rate: 59 overall / 50 left

Starting Balance 08-Jan-2009: €10,000.00
Current Balance 13-Oct-2009: €25,799.41 +157.99%

Jan 2009: €9,215.92 -7.84%
Feb 2009: €8,943.03 -2.96%
Mar 2009: €9,128.69 +2.08%
Apr 2009: €8,559.92 -6.23%
May 2009: €11,000.73 +28.51%
June 2009: €11,777.97 +7.07%
July 2009: €14,059.48 +19.37%
August 2009: €15,344.71 +9.14%
September 2009: €19,130.28 +24.67%
October 2009: €25,799.41 +34.86%

And that's the equity how it should look like 2009:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/equity.png

light green: the needed equity excluding taxes
orange: the needed equity including taxes
green: the real equity
  • #2
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:49am Dec 10, 2008 3:49am
All the best bro..
  • #3
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:57am Dec 10, 2008 3:57am
It may seem to be "one of the most boring threads ever!" but if/ when you make it, then it will be the longest and one of the most important.

after all it's only

Trade Target $ 1,000,000.00 Number Years10 $ 100,000.00 Monthly Target12 $ 8,333.33 Weekly Target52 $ 1,923.08 Daily Target246 $ 406.50

give or take

Very best of luck.
  • #4
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:06am Dec 10, 2008 4:06am
Thanks guys! That's one of my goals, yes. A complete transactions log without gaps to show the way up (or down).

I've tested this approach both with back and forward testing and it looks reliable and resistant against market conditions changes as the stops/trade size and so on are just variable and dependent from the volatility...
  • #5
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:18am Dec 10, 2008 4:18am
All the best.
  • #6
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:21am Dec 10, 2008 4:21am
Thanks!

BTW Kiwi06, I would use compounding, so about 5% per month should do it.
  • #7
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:53am Dec 10, 2008 5:53am
Quoting Xaron
Thanks!

BTW Kiwi06, I would use compounding, so about 5% per month should do it.
How many pairs will you be trading and what lot size are you starting out with.
  • #8
  • Dec 10, 2008 6:17am Dec 10, 2008 6:17am
I'll trade EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. The position size is variable, the initial risk if 0.25% per trade. I use a limited(!) martingale strategy where I double up 3 times and end up with a overall risk of 3.75% per sequence. Those losses happen occasionally but in the long run my back tests (and forward tests as well) have proven the benefit of such a limited martingale sequence.
  • #9
  • Dec 13, 2008 9:51am Dec 13, 2008 9:51am
You won't make it with that system. Period.
You need a beter risk/reward ratio, 1:1 means you need to be "right" at least 51% of the time to be "tiny profitable". Also martingale never works, at some point you'll blew up your acc.
Did you know: If you make 2% of your 10K acc. every day, with compounding you would have your million in one year (working labor day's being 100% right)?
Now, before all the gang drops at me and tell me that is impossible, dude, I KNOW!
I just want to show you how you CAN do it if you have a better plan.
What I'm searching is a system that has a good efficiency, I mean 60%-70% or more, then comes the MM, your ratio should be at least 2:1, 3:1 far better.
AGAIN: I'm not saying I have that kind of system nor that you could find one with that characteristics (I've seen a couple of commercial, but I don't know if they are true or pure BS like 99% of them), but I can't believe that it doesn't exists, not talking about Holly-Make-Me-Richer-Than-Buffet-And-Bill-Gates-
Combined-Mambo-Jumbo-Grail,
Just a profitable system with good MM, thats all folks!

So, in order to success, you will need:

1- An honest broker that is not a bucket shop
2- A good, simple system that is profitable a good percentage of the time, like 60%
3-A good MM and good risk/reward ratio.

That's all! "KISS"

Maybe you can't make it in a year, that's not realistic, but maybe (just maybe), you could make it in 5 instead of 10, and then you could call me and buy me a meal, 'cos I'm still trying to grab as much "free lunches" as I can get

Well, anyway, good luck and have a nice day.

PS: back test and forward test is crap, until you trade with real money in a real broker you won't get the real feeling that takes to make real money. Don't waste your time with that, far better finding a good system, maybe one that a prof. trader has live trade it for a couple of years with mod. success.
3rd World Trading
  • #10
  • Dec 13, 2008 1:05pm Dec 13, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting adesalambrar
You won't make it with that system. Period.
You need a beter risk/reward ratio, 1:1 means you need to be "right" at least 51% of the time to be "tiny profitable". Also martingale never works, at some point you'll blew up your acc.
I use a limited martingale sequence which stops at a loss of 3.75% and kicks in with a probability of 6.25% if I have a success rate of 50% (actually this success rate is higher).

I did some tests and using this limited martingale sequence has some benefits which are because of the kind of system I use. I often do stop and reverse and just use volatility breakouts. A false breakout (which often occurs) usually breaks down in the other direction with some momentum...

Quote
Did you know: If you make 2% of your 10K acc. every day, with compounding you would have your million in one year (working labor day's being 100% right)?
Now, before all the gang drops at me and tell me that is impossible, dude, I KNOW!
I just want to show you how you CAN do it if you have a better plan.
What I'm searching is a system that has a good efficiency, I mean 60%-70% or more, then comes the MM, your ratio should be at least 2:1, 3:1 far better.

I don't like this 2:1, 3:1 and so on and have never found a professional trader who actually use it. Actually all professionals I know don't use any risk/reward calculation at all. Sounds impossible, mhh? If you trade with ultra low leverage you don't need stops, scaling in and out, using hedges and so on and you just don't need that funny calculations.

Quote
Just a profitable system with good MM, thats all folks!

Yes. That's right.

Quote
So, in order to success, you will need:

1- An honest broker that is not a bucket shop

I have one. You might laugh but Oanda isn't a bucket shop for me.

Quote
2- A good, simple system that is profitable a good percentage of the time, like 60%

Winning percentage is usually nonsense if you don't have the risk/reward stuff. Actually everything about it is nonsense because backtests say nothing about the future.

Quote
and then you could call me and buy me a meal, 'cos I'm still trying to grab as much "free lunches" as I can get

I'll do, I promise. To be honest: I'll be glad if I just have more than 10k in 10 years in this account.

Quote
Well, anyway, good luck and have a nice day.

Thanks! Same to you and thanks for your opinion!

Quote
PS: back test and forward test is crap, until you trade with real money in a real broker you won't get the real feeling that takes to make real money. Don't waste your time with that, far better finding a good system, maybe one that a prof. trader has live trade it for a couple of years with mod. success.

I did forward test it in a real money account and it worked well. Again this doesn't necessarily mean that it will continue to work well - we'll see.
  • #11
  • Dec 13, 2008 1:45pm Dec 13, 2008 1:45pm
Hey good luck on your goal. Though i'd share something i put together that has helped me achieve my goals. Risking 1-2% of your account will turn 10k into about 138k in about 5months trading geppy. Therefore reaching your mill should be achieved in less than 2 years and not 10! You can change this around to suit yourself. Good luck mate
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls SUSU FX-50pips.xls   38 KB | 1,717 downloads
  • #12
  • Dec 13, 2008 1:57pm Dec 13, 2008 1:57pm
Quoting susufx
Hey good luck on your goal. Though i'd share something i put together that has helped me achieve my goals. Risking 1-2% of your account will turn 10k into about 138k in about 5months trading geppy. Therefore reaching your mill should be achieved in less than 2 years and not 10! You can change this around to suit yourself. Good luck mate
From when does a babygirl know how to count that money hehehe
  • #13
  • Dec 13, 2008 1:58pm Dec 13, 2008 1:58pm
susufx, thanks! But when I've learned one thing in the last few years then that it is not that probable to make 1000% per year.
  • #14
  • Dec 13, 2008 2:03pm Dec 13, 2008 2:03pm
susufx,
prerequisite to your approach is a stack of quite some money.. and another one to allow you make some mistakes 10,000 would not be enough for my liking.

anyhow good luck on your jouney Xaron.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #15
  • Dec 13, 2008 5:48pm Dec 13, 2008 5:48pm
good luck Xaron!
  • #16
  • Dec 14, 2008 1:27pm Dec 14, 2008 1:27pm
Thanks guys!

Will see how it works. The tax will be a real problem though. ~28% of my earnings per year...
  • #17
  • Dec 14, 2008 8:03pm Dec 14, 2008 8:03pm
what happen to your martingale baggio method? i read some posts of yours there (i never posted tho)

what % ROI did you make off that in november? or have you stopped trading that method?
  • #18
  • Dec 16, 2008 1:21am Dec 16, 2008 1:21am
Quoting dengzhi
what happen to your martingale baggio method? i read some posts of yours there (i never posted tho)

what % ROI did you make off that in november? or have you stopped trading that method?
I've stopped using that method due to the violent volatility. Actually I took 2 losses (no margin calls) and I'm still on the plus side but stopped using it. I think about to continue it if markets continue to calm down.
  • #19
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:50am Dec 17, 2008 12:50am
Wooahhh,

good luck Xaron...
IŽll follow this thread, even if it might be boring !!
DonŽt live for working, but work for living.
  • #20
  • Dec 17, 2008 2:33am Dec 17, 2008 2:33am
Danke matsf! Will do my best.
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