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I thought that...

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 18, 2008 3:27pm Sep 4, 2008 6:43pm | Edited Oct 18, 2008 3:27pm

  1. Mixing TA and FA was essential to succeed. Thank [insert any god of your choice here] I was wrong. I can’t find anything more boring that reading through pages of numbers and crap.

  1. Crossing and messing around with indicators would give me any edge, if I just could test it long enough. What a waste of time.

  1. Fibonacci numbers had some magical effect on the market. When fibs worked, I discovered that the “magical” levels just matched with previous low/high.

  1. Watching every other market would give me any edge/was essential to trade the spot FX market. After some time, I understood that correlation is a fundamentals game, nothing for a technician. Nothing more interesting with correlation for me, at least.

  1. I would be profitable after a year, maximum, and rich after 2. Lol

  1. Someone would tell me the truth about this market; all I heard was money, money and how rich you could get in a short time-frame. So few want to admit how much work is needed to succeed and that they couldn't put that amount of work into it.

  1. FF contained many pro’s who actually traded for a living. I have a vague feeling that we have more pretenders than pro’s. Although, I still like this place.Trading is a lonely thing, buh-huuh

Your turn.

Measure twice, cut once
  • #2
  • Sep 4, 2008 8:07pm Sep 4, 2008 8:07pm
so true. trading is lonely. most of the people who post on here are not the 'winners'. They are the opposite searching for a new system because theirs just failed and they can't handle more than one loss in a row. Forex requires a steep education in FOREX. Indicators are just what their name says they are Indicators...of what has ALREADY happened.

Any forex trader that has been around a while can see through the smoke a little better than the newbie. Be careful who you listen to on any forum or blog. Unfortunately the only lessons worth learning are from each other. Talk about the blind leading the slightly less blind.

the sooner you start your education the sooner you'll be profitable. but be forewarned the education never ends.

I love forex cynics aediaz1. They are the ones who have 'paid' for their forex education.

Keep your head up. Good post.
  • #3
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:01pm Sep 4, 2008 9:01pm
Good to see you haven't lost your sense of humor!
Chance favors the prepared
  • #4
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:49pm Sep 4, 2008 9:49pm
A lot of time (years), and a lot of money spent (lossed), and everything you will learn (if u don't giveup before) rotate, like planets rotate, they rotate around a simple facts (or just some simple facts).

I write them, just to let you understand well:

1) go with the trend, if trend is up you cannot make profit selling, if trend go down you cannot make profit buying.
(yeah i know somebody try to take the tops and bottoms, every 10 trades they loose 9 of them, and the final result is a big loss in the account, or a margin call)

2) if the trend is up and you are long, then you notice that the trend is not up anymore (of course is down!) and you are loosing money, don't wait, don't stay long, time is money, in this case YOUR money.

2-b) instead, sell, and enjoy the new trend unless it finish.


Ok, two simple stupid facts, two simple principles of trading.


What is the difference of winners-loosers? (Pro and newbies)

The winners (pro) go with the trend, the loosers (newbies) usually not.


It's stupid, but the more you experience, the more you learn, the more you become profitable, the more you will understand that these principles are "the secret" of trading.

(I think)
  • #5
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:45pm Sep 4, 2008 10:45pm
You know, I've been doing this a while. Started out trading Yen and D-mark futures back in 1993.
There was no Euro. There was no internet. Al Gore was still inventing it.

I had to pick up a telephone and wait for an arb clerk to fill my ticket.
If they flashed it over I could hold for the fill, otherwise they had to call me back.
When Globex went online I still had to pick up a phone, but some guy
on the other end would go, "..hold on, we'll buy 5 at the market, be right back..."
and I'd get a fill in the evening session. The EFP though Singapore was the same as trading a day contract.

Fast forward 15 years...................................

Holy shit ! I don't recognize the market. What happened ???

Progress is what happened. I would never want to do it the old way ever again.

I will tell you one thing, there has never been so much opportunity to make money in FX
as there is in the current time we live in (last I looked, it's 2008).

Forget the George Soros stories and everything you ever read by Jack Schwagger.
The new wizzards are taking the reigns from the old guard and the game has developed
beyond anything that we ever dreamed it would become all those years ago.
  • #6
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:50pm Sep 4, 2008 10:50pm
This is one of the best posts (#1) I've read at FF!

five stars for brutal honesty in the face of the know-it-all johnny come latelys!
  • #7
  • Sep 5, 2008 12:10am Sep 5, 2008 12:10am
Quoting toshi
You know, I've been doing this a while. Started out trading Yen and D-mark futures back in 1993.
There was no Euro. There was no internet. Al Gore was still inventing it.

I had to pick up a telephone and wait for an arb clerk to fill my ticket.
If they flashed it over I could hold for the fill, otherwise they had to call me back.
When Globex went online I still had to pick up a phone, but some guy
on the other end would go, "..hold on, we'll buy 5 at the market, be right back..."
and I'd get a fill in the evening session. The EFP though Singapore was the same as trading a day contract.

Fast forward 15 years...................................

Holy shit ! I don't recognize the market. What happened ???

Progress is what happened. I would never want to do it the old way ever again.

I will tell you one thing, there has never been so much opportunity to make money in FX
as there is in the current time we live in (last I looked, it's 2008).

Forget the George Soros stories and everything you ever read by Jack Schwagger.
The new wizzards are taking the reigns from the old guard and the game has developed
beyond anything that we ever dreamed it would become all those years ago.
For the retail punter for sure.
For the interbank/wholesale punter no way.
The machines have taken away the skill factor of price making.The liquidity pool is now shared amongst 6 or so electronic brokers, probably fed by the same banks with an algo.
Tell me where the fun in that is ?
  • #8
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:57am Sep 5, 2008 3:57am
Quoting lasty
For the retail punter for sure.
For the interbank/wholesale punter no way.
The machines have taken away the skill factor of price making.
The liquidity pool is now shared amongst 6 or so electronic brokers,
probably fed by the same banks with an algo.
Tell me where the fun in that is ?
Sure, for the interbank jobbers, the easy money has dried up.
Arbitrage on currency, gold and oil has fairly much gone the way of the buggy whip.
The days of inverse spreads and picking up found money have past us by.
I agree the function of making a price and then trading on that price with a counter-party
is a lost art and they've turned it into a video game. You're right about that.

I guess the fun is still had in the knowledge that when mkts have participants
and the volume is there and there's more volume now than ever before,
the markets will move, sometimes all over the map and as long as they're moving,
they're worth trading. I'm reminded of that every time there's a holiday and
volume dries up and I'm going, "...where the hell is everybody ?"

Anyway, we can't go back. Plus, if you have an idea for a book, John Wiley will publish
anything with Forex in the title. So, I suggest we get together and write
Reminiscences of a Forex Operator. It should sell a few thousand copies.
  • #9
  • Edited 11:36am Sep 5, 2008 7:45am | Edited 11:36am
Cheers. I'm not posting this to crush anybody's dreams but only a attempt to throw a light on what challenges most "traders" face and what level of commitment this game takes.

Too many people enter this field without any education or knowledge, expecting to make at least 200% return each year.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #10
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:00am Sep 5, 2008 10:00am
Hi aediaz1,

firstly how have you been ? Good I hope.

I so agree and have similar conclusions as those you pointed out.

Finally...I thought that....." hey why nobody told me this earlier ?! @*#%$# !! "

Wish you all sucess
  • #11
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:02am Sep 5, 2008 10:02am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Hi aediaz1,

firstly how have you been ? Good I hope.

I so agree and have similar conclusions as those you pointed out.

Finally...I thought that....." hey why nobody told me this earlier ?! @*#%$# !! "

Wish you all sucess
Hi Mark, I'm all good, and you ?

Well, maybe it was for the best no-one told me the truth

Good to hear from you again.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #12
  • Edited 12:05pm Sep 5, 2008 10:26am | Edited 12:05pm
Quoting tunera

What is the difference of winners-loosers? (Pro and newbies)

The winners (pro) go with the trend, the loosers (newbies) usually not.
I disagree, the pro's make the trend, they are selling their positions to the newbies who get in at the end of the trend. That is why the newbies lose and think that the market is doing exactly the opposite of what they are doing - it is no coincidence.

Say we have three different group of traders; let's call them A, the professionals, B, the nimble and C, the losers.

The professionals identify where price is likely to turn and sell into the pain, fading the trend. Once price inevitably turns (because the professionals who move the market), the nimble group spot what is going on: they see the resistance, they see the price action and get in with a fair R:R ratio and a possibility of making some good money. Then, the C group step in after they've waited for all their confirmation signals and indicators to flash and make noises. They pick up all the orders that the professionals are ditching and reversing to go in the other direction. This is the nature of it.

'Keep with the trend' is good advice if you are nimble enough to spot it early, but that is not how the professionals do it - they do it the exact opposite way that the newbs do it, hence why they feel the market always does the opposite of what they think it will.
  • #13
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:29am Sep 5, 2008 10:29am
Quoting tdion
This is one of the best posts (#1) I've read at FF!

five stars for brutal honesty in the face of the know-it-all johnny come latelys!

This is one of the best I've read. There it is in a nutshell. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=22
  • #14
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:44am Sep 5, 2008 10:44am
Quoting aediaz1
Hi Mark, I'm all good, and you ?

Well, maybe it was for the best no-one told me the truth

Good to hear from you again.

Hey hey, I m in excellent condition. Thank you.

I think it is really good to stop and think what profitable trading is about once in a while regardless of whether you are doing well or not. Like the way you did with this thread.

Indeed the level of commitment and passion require is beyond comprehension to most.

I quote a friend of mine (a newbie) who compared trading with playing soccer :

-The most exciting part of the game is when the score is still 0-0. Where we see a great display of skill and strategy. Blending attack and defense.

-When a side has scored. 1-0. The initial moments after scoring for the leaders are the most dangerous, as victory tend to lead to complacency resulting in lapse in tactics.

-The losing side is equally in danger, as they try to win back lost ground, the aggression causes them to sacrifice defense.

Thus always play like the score is still 0-0.

  • #15
  • Sep 5, 2008 5:25pm Sep 5, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Hey hey, I m in excellent condition. Thank you.

I think it is really good to stop and think what profitable trading is about once in a while regardless of whether you are doing well or not. Like the way you did with this thread.

Indeed the level of commitment and passion require is beyond comprehension to most.

I quote a friend of mine (a newbie) who compared trading with playing soccer :

-The most exciting part of the game is when the score is still 0-0. Where we see a great display of skill and strategy. Blending attack and defense.

-When a side has scored. 1-0. The initial moments after scoring for the leaders are the most dangerous, as victory tend to lead to complacency resulting in lapse in tactics.

-The losing side is equally in danger, as they try to win back lost ground, the aggression causes them to sacrifice defense.

Thus always play like the score is still 0-0.

It's funny to see how many things trading can be compared to. No doubt a battle-zone where some bright minds robbing not-so-bright minds every day. I like this sentence;

"A new trader is like a little lamb walking into a dark forest. He is likely to be killed, and his skin—his trading capital—divided three ways, between brokers, professional traders, and service providers.
Each will try to grab a piece of that poor lamb’s skin. Don’t be that lamb"

Lol I smile every time I read that.

And can you imagine that people enter this zone with only armed with a crappy indicator crossover ? "Oh look, the RSI on 15m chart is over-sold. This baby have to go up"
Measure twice, cut once
  • #16
  • Sep 5, 2008 6:48pm Sep 5, 2008 6:48pm
... it was all about "buy low, sell high", like I was told
  • #17
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:10pm Sep 5, 2008 7:10pm
Quoting cesarnc
... it was all about "buy low, sell high", like I was told
but now there is this "new" hip thing; buy high sell low
Measure twice, cut once
  • #18
  • Sep 5, 2008 9:11pm Sep 5, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting billflet
This is one of the best I've read. There it is in a nutshell. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=22
Dang it bill, I love nutshells and that link is returning a 404 error.
  • #19
  • Sep 5, 2008 9:34pm Sep 5, 2008 9:34pm
Quoting opie999
Dang it bill, I love nutshells and that link is returning a 404 error.
I was referring to Tdion's post which illustrates how difficult just breaking even is.

Compliments to Tdion:

The number one reason the odds are against us:

It takes more percent to recover from a drawdown than the actual drawdown itself.

drawdown % : % to recover
0 : 0
10 : 11.11
20 : 25
30 : 43
40 : 67
50 : 100
60 : 150
70 : 233
80 : 400
90 : 900

You are at a disadvantage because you have a finite amount of capital. You will have to replenish your account if your drawdown is too severe, or your "huge 400% winning streak" will only get you back to breakeven.

Combine this with spreads and rollover premiums, and you've got a real bully staring you down before you even start.
__________________

  • #20
  • Sep 5, 2008 9:37pm Sep 5, 2008 9:37pm
that's the ugly truth about trading :|
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