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"The Pip Nailer". Any time frame, any pair

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 4, 2008 9:46am Jan 7, 2008 3:08pm | Edited Oct 4, 2008 9:46am
Dear all,

EDIT: Pip Nailer was a simple system that was created for fellow traders, primarly aimed towards those wanted a basic system, with a lightweight structure, and without any complicated rules. Results do vary from month to month, however I can't vouch for the system's effectiveness from around May 2008 onwards, since I haven't been trading it myself.

Two files attached - the actual PDF manual, and the template for MT4 users.

Regards,

Ash

EDIT: Please note, I do not recommend smaller timeframes, especially anything under 30min. Also, another rule of thumb is, only take the trade if the TP is at least twice the size of the pair's spread.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Pip_Nailer.pdf   38 KB | 34,055 downloads
File Type: tpl pip_nailer.tpl   1 KB | 14,545 downloads
  • #2
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:18pm Jan 7, 2008 6:18pm
Thanks for sharing, this system looks good I will test
  • #3
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:45pm Jan 7, 2008 7:45pm
What PSAR settings are you using?
  • #4
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:56pm Jan 7, 2008 7:56pm
Thanks for posting your system. If I understand correctly (and even the simplest system can get tricky, especially when 'intuition' sneaks in), then you would have had six signals (see attached).

Of these six, I think that the second long would have probably been a loss. The third long may have been a loss or a break-even trade, maybe even a win if you exited at less than 30 pips (30 pips on this one may have been tough to squeeze out, but it was close).

The last short - we don't really know what would have happened as the chart ends mid trade

It is interesting to me that the longs were the 'problem trades' - suggests that a simple trend filter (moving average slope perhaps?) may keep you out of those. In this case your filter would have you taking shorts only.

Your example trade seems to suggest that it is only the color, not the direction of the AC or AO that matters. That is, you will take a short if the AO is red and below the zero line and the AC is red and above the zero line (and the parabolic SAR is above the candle, of course). Is this correct?
  • #5
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:57pm Jan 7, 2008 7:57pm
here it is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pip_nailer entries.JPG Size: 211 KB
  • #6
  • Jan 7, 2008 8:04pm Jan 7, 2008 8:04pm
Ash,

Your contribution is appreciated!

Could you please tell us how you developed this, i.e. why these indicators, etc.?
Also, have you done any backtesting?
Could you be more specific regarding tf and pairs - which work best from your experience?


Thanks again,
  • #7
  • Jan 7, 2008 8:16pm Jan 7, 2008 8:16pm
Nice system, congrats for sharing!

Let me ask you... Your rules are:

- Red in awesome, red in accelerator, short in SAR => SELL

- Green in awesome, green in accelerator, long in SAR => BUY

How about an EA? I can program it.
  • #8
  • Jan 7, 2008 9:32pm Jan 7, 2008 9:32pm
Quoting pip_bagger
Thanks for posting your system. If I understand correctly (and even the simplest system can get tricky, especially when 'intuition' sneaks in), then you would have had six signals (see attached).

Of these six, I think that the second long would have probably been a loss. The third long may have been a loss or a break-even trade, maybe even a win if you exited at less than 30 pips (30 pips on this one may have been tough to squeeze out, but it was close).

The last short - we don't really know what would have happened as the chart ends mid trade
If I am not mistaken, according to the rules in the PDF all three indicators need to change (buy to sell or sell to buy) simultaneously on the same candle. So the six entries you designated with arrows did not conform to the rules.

Were you trying to point out that it could still be a successful strategy without the simultaneous change as long as you traded with the trend? It would certainly provide more trades though the winning percentage may be affected.

Ash, can you tell us your winning percentage of trades and pips per month of your system? I am not asking for hard stats but just your estimate. It seems like it could have a very high winning percentage but fewer trades because of the nailed candle rule.

Thanks for showing this to us.
  • #9
  • Jan 7, 2008 9:35pm Jan 7, 2008 9:35pm
that would rule!
  • #10
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:14pm Jan 7, 2008 10:14pm
Quoting a777

Were you trying to point out that it could still be a successful strategy without the simultaneous change as long as you traded with the trend? It would certainly provide more trades though the winning percentage may be affected.
I'm all for trading with the trend.

I just wanted to point out that the rules for Ash's beauty here could be clarified.

Thanks again, Ash, this is looking great!
  • #11
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:23pm Jan 7, 2008 10:23pm
Nice share....thanks a bunch
  • #12
  • Jan 7, 2008 11:28pm Jan 7, 2008 11:28pm
Thanks everyone for the appreciation.

Little busy right now, but I will answer some of the points raised later in the day!
  • #13
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:23am Jan 8, 2008 6:23am
i think a good way might be the psar has to change
but the others dont have to be the right color on
the previous bar...

that would give a lot more entries
  • #14
  • Jan 8, 2008 7:51am Jan 8, 2008 7:51am
thx a lot for sharing this system
  • #15
  • Jan 8, 2008 8:34am Jan 8, 2008 8:34am
doesnt work well on these settings.
  • #16
  • Jan 8, 2008 9:37am Jan 8, 2008 9:37am
Interesting system, thanks for sharing. Isn't a valid exit strategy for this system right on the chart ? Surely a trailing stop using PSAR would lock in plenty of pips going forward enough to overcome a reasonable win/loss ratio ?

Since for all of those three indicators to simultaneously change direction in order to signal a valid entry, this would indicate to me that it is a relatively strong move. This would be ideal to run a trailing exit using PSAR.

Just my 2 pips worth from eye-balling the chart.
  • #17
  • Jan 8, 2008 9:42am Jan 8, 2008 9:42am
Quoting pip_bagger
here it is.
PipBagger - Unless I have mis-understood the entry rules, you have covered entries there which are not valid. I think I read it as saying that all indicators must change on the same bar simultaneously. It's an interesrting concept which I haven't really thought about before, but I can see some merit in it. Sure you will have missed opportunities but at the same time the opportunities that you get must be quite high probability.

Hopefully Forex moments can clarify this for us later.
  • #18
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:58pm Jan 8, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting a777
If I am not mistaken, according to the rules in the PDF all three indicators need to change (buy to sell or sell to buy) simultaneously on the same candle. So the six entries you designated with arrows did not conform to the rules.

Were you trying to point out that it could still be a successful strategy without the simultaneous change as long as you traded with the trend? It would certainly provide more trades though the winning percentage may be affected.

Ash, can you tell us your winning percentage of trades and pips per month of your system? I am not asking for hard stats but just your estimate. It seems like it could have a very high winning percentage but fewer trades because of the nailed candle rule.

Thanks for showing this to us.
Yes, absolutely correct, a Nailed Candle is one where all three indicators have to line up on EXACTLY THE SAME CANDLE. If not, then it's simply not a valid entry.

As for trading like pip_bagger mentioned, then I actually tested this method, and found that I got far too many false signals. So to answer your question... with the method that I have specified in my e-book, I am getting around 70% winning trades. I usually trade hourly charts or more, but one can easily apply this as a scalping strategy on the 5 min charts. Just remember it's harder though because you're paying more spread per move. As for how many pips, then I honestly haven't counted, and anyway, it wouldn't bear any significance because i'm never trading the same pair, nor the same timeframe all the time.

It's important that people here get a feel for fundamentals as well, this will help you work out which are more likely to be trending or ranging, thus assisting you in selecting the pair to choose for trading this system.
  • #19
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:00pm Jan 8, 2008 2:00pm
Quoting rogerha
Interesting system, thanks for sharing. Isn't a valid exit strategy for this system right on the chart ? Surely a trailing stop using PSAR would lock in plenty of pips going forward enough to overcome a reasonable win/loss ratio ?

Since for all of those three indicators to simultaneously change direction in order to signal a valid entry, this would indicate to me that it is a relatively strong move. This would be ideal to run a trailing exit using PSAR.

Just my 2 pips worth from eye-balling the chart.
The problem with using the PSAR exclusively for exiting is that it's rather a laggy indicator. So yes, on the example I provided, it seems using PSAR to exit alone is perfect, but due to the lagging nature of PSAR, it will bite you on other occassions.
  • #20
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:07pm Jan 8, 2008 2:07pm
Quoting psymantis
What PSAR settings are you using?
I am using the default PSAR settings (0.02, 0.2).
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