Hanging out the daily on the close line | Forex Factory

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Hanging out the daily on the close line

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 20, 2019 12:57am Jan 18, 2019 9:16pm | Edited Jan 20, 2019 12:57am
Hi all.

I had an idea early this morning while awake in bed, (probably not the best time lol) I thought of placing a series of 1SMAs on a chart, settings as follows, high, low and close. Then put on a line chart with no colour.

We then watch for the close line to touch one of the other lines, at which time we switch from line to bars and trade the opposite of the colour of the candle that touched the outer SMA. (See charts)

One exception is if the touch occurs when the outer SMA is moving towards the close SMA (see charts, orange dotted lines}

I am using Gold daily chart for the example but any chart or TF should work. I am going to study this further, live when the markets open...anything can look good in hindsight. The nice thing is, it looks like a setup has occurred on friday close so we will see on Sunday.

Essentially what can be observed here is, if a candle closes very close to it's high or low the next candle is going to retrace. I will be happy if you are able to test this too...I appreciate your interest.


Chris
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  • #2
  • Jan 19, 2019 10:59am Jan 19, 2019 10:59am
Wow very interesting.subscribed
  • #3
  • Jan 19, 2019 11:03am Jan 19, 2019 11:03am
here is a little secret, and it will be very usefull if you know what to do with it...

"Don't take a breakout unless it follows a false breakout".

Merlin 'Magic Man'
Founder Forex Factory

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8294#post18294
If you like my post throw me a Doge: D9eyP5TFYGDaN1JpjyU4jaU9ypg2wUk8Zp
  • #4
  • Jan 19, 2019 11:32am Jan 19, 2019 11:32am
I observe that if midle line touches upper or lower chanel its means that candle had small wick,however with quick look seems thad winrate is good,need to wait when market opens to see in realtime
  • #5
  • Jan 19, 2019 12:53pm Jan 19, 2019 12:53pm
Quoting domba
here is a little secret, and it will be very usefull if you know what to do with it... "Don't take a breakout unless it follows a false breakout". Merlin 'Magic Man' Founder Forex Factory https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8294#post18294
well, at least that’s how he picture it

here is another secret, dont follow the public information and rules to win a public game
  • #6
  • Jan 19, 2019 12:57pm Jan 19, 2019 12:57pm
Quoting cfudge
{quote} Yes, essentially what can be observed here is, if a candle closes very close to it's high or low the next candle is going to retrace. I will be happy if you are able to test this too...I appreciate your interest. Chris
make a simple ea for it and test it on history candles,
for technical strategies there's no chance to win in real if you fail on the backtesting
  • #7
  • Jan 19, 2019 2:36pm Jan 19, 2019 2:36pm
subscribed
  • #8
  • Jan 20, 2019 4:14pm Jan 20, 2019 4:14pm
So here are the trades taken at step one of this process...wish luck.

You can see the pairs I am testing on too.

Chris
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  • #9
  • Jan 20, 2019 4:19pm Jan 20, 2019 4:19pm
Quoting cfudge
So here are the trades taken at step one of this process...wish luck. You can see the pairs I am testing on too. Chris {image}
I take eurusd and chfjpy,but problem is that now spread is very big
  • #10
  • Jan 20, 2019 4:26pm Jan 20, 2019 4:26pm
Quoting ficibald
{quote} I take eurusd and chfjpy,but problem is that now spread is very big
EURUSD is not good for me too far away from low, CHFJPY is closer so good luck...I decided to leave it.

AUDUSD NZDUSD and GBPCAD were good entries but the high/low lines were pointing inwards so no trades.

I will be trading on gold and xtiusd when they open

Chris
  • #11
  • Jan 21, 2019 1:18pm Jan 21, 2019 1:18pm
I think that to avoid the spread a days start it would be better to set trades a few minutes before EOD
  • #12
  • Edited 5:34pm Jan 21, 2019 5:02pm | Edited 5:34pm
I don't see any trades today in the pairs I am watching, I will go to watch all 29 pairs...

Ficibald looks like you had small wins today.

I had a small win on USDJPY, but losses on both gold and oil.

Chris
  • #13
  • Jan 22, 2019 4:18am Jan 22, 2019 4:18am
Quoting cfudge
I don't see any trades today in the pairs I am watching, I will go to watch all 29 pairs... Ficibald looks like you had small wins today. I had a small win on USDJPY, but losses on both gold and oil. Chris
yes got TP,yesterday dont hawe any trades because I get to sleep early and I am mad on myself about that good that there was no good trade opurtinity,gold was look good setup bad that they was a loss
  • #14
  • Jan 22, 2019 3:58pm Jan 22, 2019 3:58pm
I am pissed I missed this 90 pip gold trade yesterday, was too concerned with closing it at a loss from previous day.
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Here are my trades from today, there are some that are close but I did not take as close too far away from high/low.

Chris

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  • #15
  • Jan 22, 2019 4:18pm Jan 22, 2019 4:18pm
Quoting cfudge
I am pissed I missed this 90 pip gold trade yesterday, was too concerned with closing it at a loss from previous day. {image} Here are my trades from today, there are some that are close but I did not take as close too far away from high/low. Chris {image}
yes today was many opurtunitys.I take some trades lets see....
  • #16
  • Jan 23, 2019 3:58pm Jan 23, 2019 3:58pm
Only EURCHF and AUDUSD today

I feel like a good criteria for a valid signal is if close is within 5 pips of high/low

I am going to give this method 100 or so trades to hopefully figure out if it is worth proceeding.

Chris
  • #17
  • Jan 25, 2019 5:38pm Jan 25, 2019 5:38pm
Here are the trades I am watching for Sunday, barring any gaps. I missed the EOD as I have been trying to place the trades before the daily close to avoid spread widening.

All of these are within 5 pips of the low/high.

Chris

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  • #18
  • Edited 9:00pm Jan 28, 2019 2:51pm | Edited 9:00pm
All of the above trades closed with a profit Hopefully we are on the assent.

I do not see any trades today, still an hour to go but I have to go out.

This is a graph of progress so far since Jan 17 to Jan 29.

Chris

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  • #19
  • Jan 28, 2019 3:25pm Jan 28, 2019 3:25pm
Hi Chris,

Just wanted to say that I like the look of the this strategy and plan test it on a demo account.

I do have a couple of questions if I may.

What determines your TP? (apologies if I missed this, but can't find a reference to it anywhere). Initially I thought it was to wait for the close of the daily bar but looking at your post above this doesn't seem to be the case.

The close line of the AUS/CHF pair (from the screen shot of the trades taken last night) sat below the high SMA rather than closed on it. Is there another reason you took this trade or was it just because you considered it to be close enough?
  • #20
  • Jan 28, 2019 4:45pm Jan 28, 2019 4:45pm
Quoting billbob99
Hi Chris, Just wanted to say that I like the look of the this strategy and plan test it on a demo account. I do have a couple of questions if I may. What determines your TP? (apologies if I missed this, but can't find a reference to it anywhere). Initially I thought it was to wait for the close of the daily bar but looking at your post above this doesn't seem to be the case. The close line of the AUS/CHF pair (from the screen shot of the trades taken last night) sat below the high SMA rather than closed on it. Is there another reason you took this...
Hi billbob99
Thanks for your interest and I hope you can test this too, the more the merrier.

I do not have a SL at the moment, I was thinking that 30-50 pips might suffice.

TP is the close of the next daily candle, (or the mext candle of the TF you are using). I do try to close trades a few minutes before EOD (I was going to be out today so I closed early). I also try to enter the new trades before EOD also to miss the widening of spreads.

As far as the AUDCHF trade...I suggested it would be OK to open trades within 5 pips between close and high/low.

Chris
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