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The next step after reaching broker lot size limit

  • #221
  • Nov 30, 2017 8:07am Nov 30, 2017 8:07am
Quoting DemoForever
{quote} Your using full Kelly on £12000 from the start right?
Not at the start, this first 30 or so trades were much less than Kelly would have had me using. But from about 30 trades onward yes.

It changed quite a bit early on but as the pool of trades it was based on grew it settled down.
  • #222
  • Nov 30, 2017 8:32am Nov 30, 2017 8:32am
Quoting BigOldFella
{quote} I don't. I think I worded the original post badly. It was more of a general question - how do you trade when you need to stop using the retail brokers. I was extrapolating if my results carry on the way they're going at some point the broker limit would be reached. Prime brokers were mentioned but I think multiple trades using a trade copier is the way forward. I'd recently got to the stage where I was needing to trade over 100 lots was having problems at the time because the broker I'm using was rejecting any trades over 100 lots. The error...
Perhaps you already know this, but if you put him on your ignore list, he will no longer be able to post on your thread. He is beyond annoying and should be blocked, but it's your call.
  • #223
  • Nov 30, 2017 8:36am Nov 30, 2017 8:36am
inspired by this thread... off to start my own Kelly account (over 70% win rate so think i have opportunity) thanks for sharing your story even though it was intended as a question on trade size.
  • #224
  • Nov 30, 2017 8:41am Nov 30, 2017 8:41am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Perhaps you already know this, but if you put him on your ignore list, he will no longer be able to post on your thread. He is beyond annoying and should be blocked, but it's your call.
I did know, cheers, but where's the fun in that.
  • #225
  • Nov 30, 2017 8:44am Nov 30, 2017 8:44am
Quoting EcoTrader
inspired by this thread... off to start my own Kelly account (over 70% win rate so think i have opportunity) thanks for sharing your story even though it was intended as a question on trade size.
Even if you have a separate account starting with a small balance like i did, it soon compounds.
  • #226
  • Edited 3:02pm Dec 1, 2017 2:40am | Edited 3:02pm
There is a recipe for HG (Holy Grill)
Take RR 1:1.
Add one loser and two winners.
Mix it with Kelly formula.
Repeat.
Enjoy your gazillions.

Kelly % = W – [(1 – W) / R]
W = Winning probability
R = Win/loss ratio

Monte Carlo simulation is attached.

SP
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Kelly MonteCarlo.xlsx   151 KB | 391 downloads
  • #227
  • Dec 1, 2017 3:01pm Dec 1, 2017 3:01pm
Quoting BigOldFella
{quote} I don't. I think I worded the original post badly. It was more of a general question - how do you trade when you need to stop using the retail brokers. ... I'd recently got to the stage where I was needing to trade over 100 lots was having problems at the time because the broker I'm using was rejecting any trades over 100 lots. The error I was getting was "insufficient funds" even though I had plenty in my account...
Question was:
One question why do you need to trade ×1000 lots please?

My IQ is just 75. Forgive me, but by reading your answer, I did not get the idea behind... Could you please clarify why do you need to open trades bigger than 1,000 lots? Please provide an answer a 5 year old could understand, cause my brains are very similar to 5-7 years old fellas. I need simple answers I can try my best to understand. Thanks.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #228
  • Dec 1, 2017 4:26pm Dec 1, 2017 4:26pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Question was: One question why do you need to trade ×1000 lots please? My IQ is just 75. Forgive me, but by reading your answer, I did not get the idea behind... Could you please clarify why do you need to open trades bigger than 1,000 lots? Please provide an answer a 5 year old could understand, cause my brains are very similar to 5-7 years old fellas. I need simple answers I can try my best to understand. Thanks.

Good point

Also if you hit broker limit just trade with another broker. split the trade.You are also splitting the risk if the broker goes into liquidation
  • #229
  • Dec 2, 2017 12:24pm Dec 2, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting BigOldFella
{quote} I know, 11 pages and 206 posts. About 10 useful posts. About 30 interesting posts. The rest complete and utter drivel. I'm thinking of starting a thread entitled "Everyone knows more than me" and wait for Dukar to contradict me.
Ignore him, dumbass_trader simply loves picking up internet fights, for god knows what reason.
  • #230
  • Edited 9:19pm Dec 2, 2017 8:40pm | Edited 9:19pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Everyone should read this post a 1000 times. You have nailed it Dukas. Unfortunately, you are the most misunderstood forum member on FF. You know your stuff a lot and folks are simply annoyed by your style of posting and ranting and not understanding the underlying message plus your persistence back and forth puts a bad taste for readers. I know you mean well. I agree with every word you have said in this post. Would love to read your perspective on measuring all stats via % instead of $ or pip within a trading plan or strategy. $ can affect...
first thanks for your words. its sometimes really boring that only this people, who need biggest help or their posts need to be corrected for big mistakes very often, start the attacking and call me "whatever"... . its always same. you see then always some followers who dont know math or trading basics and cant judge correct, and they attack too or even call the mistakes correct. but you can tell them basics, math and reality so often and invest time, but on the end there exist some people in the world, who cant learn from there mistakes and are resistent. i try to help them, but when you try they feel attacked, and then you have their circle with many posts without any arguments started. even when you destroy each of there arguments, then some cant accept they are wrong. but whatever, such persons exist, i live with it, but really funny to see that often the most stupid people /cheater/faker get so many followers, sometimes people looks to deserve to learn bullshit or lose money. in a forum you write to maybe 5% of the members, the other have the problem they will not accept it or dont be interested in and want more read fake stories, reality is such easy and boring, they dont care. many have also the problem, they dont know where to start and how to learn and fall for wrong people, get misleaded or get a faked/scammed by fantasy stories.
all i can do, is writing honest, if someone cant see it, he dont deserve it maybe, i can only write for people who want learn something, for others you invest time for nothing. for the people who attack often without any arguments i feel often so sorry, that they be at a point in their live that they have to control their problems or get later controlled by their problems. i like very much persons who can discuss, even when they show me wrong i would like it too very much (nothing is better they showing my mistakes, so i improve faster and get a problems less), if they have logic arguments - unfortunatelly there are maybe 5% of people often with arguments.

now to your question:

i like calculating in money more, because its most accurate.
in can tell you, why percent often have more problems, or is not better:

- by percent you dont see the money, thats true, and so psyche can be affected. but when you calculate in percent you always will know money same time, so the only way with percent to not be influnced by money is you need to put all things in your trading station without money, so it dont displays in any kind. a lot work to do, but maybe its possible , if you really get you in this situation, that you never ever look at the money. then this is your point.
- when you have money transfers in the account, percent calculation you need to use this fact always to calculate with different values. money won is money won, so less work to do.
- with money won you can compare systems (only your own systems ofcourse and what you 100% for real trade) and your own accounts, with percent it dont say , what account is better. there are many statistic numbers who are extrem useless. balance, to total pips,winloss ratio plus number won and lost trades, number of trades,.... there are so many.....
all this statsitic numbers are only useable when you have many other things calculated too, or this numbers will not tell anything. best is to calculate only statsitical numbers that will tell in this number or with 1 other at max whats going on in the account and have you won or loss money. thats the point.
- if you do percent calcuation only in your backtest its all fine, but using by trading in account need much more time to invest then in money. i simple make percent calculation on the end with the money won and my value from starting year/starting week/starting month. so i would give the hint, do all in money and on the last step calculate simple in percent as additional number. when you will trade many years a strategy (intraday strategies) you will come to the point that your percents go down and down because you cant invest more and more trading amount, because spread will get to high, you cant close so much later at takeprofit or you have so much in that you risk big slippage in heavy news and you dont come out with all fast enough. so calculating in money helps here too, because you see more easy you win same money but percents decrease...

in general: you only need 3 informations to compare any trading system: money won, max drawdown and the equity curve (maybe standard deviation can help when both curves look near same). to have biggest chance for future wins, you need systems with many losses (ofcourse same time more wins) against system with near zero loss trades have extrem problem with calculating the losses (when many will come in a row), and setting correct trading amount is difficult.

and most important: accounts form different traders can never be fair compared! never ever. when someone is doing it, then he needs to learn trading basics. only traders can be compared by statistics , because lets say you want compare accounts form start of year (point 1) until end of year (point 2):
- you dont know all values (all money in all account, value of cars,real estate, shares,..... whatever has value and this for the current selling value on the market) someone had in point 1 and point 2
- if you dont know the values you cant compare, never.
- if you do, you dont have any result: 2 traders have 2 accounts and show only one and this are compared, in the other they have other win or losses. so complete different results. i can open 100 big real accounts and trade in 50 the opposite trades of the other 50 account, then after having 80% in 50 and the other has -80% i split the winning accounts and do again the same opposite trades, then i do with the rest 25 same and so on! and you get very fast 3400% (i hope number is near correct, i only did very fast calculation ) win with your last account (but all others have loss). but what do you have in real, all together some smaller losses because of the payed spreads. so you have one account with 3400% and all other in loss. and thats only 1 example, there will be endless list of this cheatings. accounts are never ever compare able between different traders. only complete values of traders.

i sleep now, if you have questions because something was not described in detail, anytime i am here to answer.
  • #231
  • Edited 11:17pm Dec 2, 2017 10:52pm | Edited 11:17pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Could you please share who you came up with the optimum risk% level based on winrate and r:r of 1 ? Perhaps a spreadsheet to play around with my numbers would be great. I have always ignored r/r of my individual trades and they are meaningless to me. Don't ask my why :-)
Here is a good podcast about the Kelly Criterion from the author of 'Fortunes Formula".....but keep in mind that if you go full bottle with Kelly....you need to have assurity regarding your error estimates in your variables. Half Kelly may be better if you are uncertain or have been victim to a single extended market condition...or alternatively as a safer method to determine your optimal position sizing in accordance with your risk tolerance.... then apply risk weighting to your return streams to determine your volatility of returns distribution.

....and another pretty good video on applying the Kelly Formula to portfolio management.
  • #232
  • Dec 3, 2017 8:02am Dec 3, 2017 8:02am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} first thanks for your words. its sometimes really boring that only this people, who need biggest help or their posts need to be corrected for big mistakes very often, start the attacking and call me "whatever"... . its always same. you see then always some followers who dont know math or trading basics and cant judge correct, and they attack too or even call the mistakes correct. but you can tell them basics, math and reality so often and invest time, but on the end there exist some people in the world, who cant learn from there mistakes...
This is all very interesting, but how is it related to the topic of this thread? The topic of this thread is related to lot size and broker selection, and you are ranting on a completely unrelated topic. I know, someone said something that you think is wrong and you want to correct them, and are willing to make a fucking ass of yourself, and drag us all down this crap hole with you, until everyone acknowledges that you are correct and a brilliant trader, etc. Please, give it a rest and move on, as you have made your point about the kind of person you are, and how to calculate comparative results.
  • #233
  • Dec 3, 2017 8:40am Dec 3, 2017 8:40am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Wow!!! I am speachles that providers can charge so much and people are willing to pay.. If they are not publishing live trades in real time to their subscribers, by default they are in my ignore list (not that i have ever even once looked into signal providers after someone had referred me to Zulutrade 4 yrs ago. I have only banked on myself for just about everything in life, I rather be a loser that blame on someone else to be a losing trader. Goose - Stop being a f*cling Golden Geese for these scammers. Grow some balls and learn how to...

Agreed my friend. There is a single service that's charges 3500 dollars a month. They can be pricey.I guess if you're trading with millions like the thread stater these prices are not a issue.

Dukas nice post!
  • #234
  • Dec 3, 2017 9:00am Dec 3, 2017 9:00am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} This is all very interesting, but how is it related to the topic of this thread? The topic of this thread is related to lot size and broker selection, and you are ranting on a completely unrelated topic. I know, someone said something that you think is wrong and you want to correct them, and are willing to make a fucking ass of yourself, and drag us all down this crap hole with you, until everyone acknowledges that you are correct and a brilliant trader, etc. Please, give it a rest and move on, as you have made your point about the kind...
sometimes you have really crazy textes.
i answered to a specific post in this thread, read this post, then you will understand my answer.

reading carefully helps a lot before writing!

and by the way: the mistakes of the threadowner i correct already! and his questions are all answered by many. you really need to start reading before answering. if you have problems with the arguments, thats an other point, then bring your arguments why someone is wrong and its possible to discuss. but you are often such a person, you only attack, say no content or argument and nothing is so possible with you. it would be really nice when you chnage this style, so its possible to take you serious in a conversation. but first, learn reading, and 50% of your posts are not necessary.
  • #235
  • Dec 3, 2017 10:24am Dec 3, 2017 10:24am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} sometimes you have really crazy textes. i answered to a specific post in this thread, read this post, then you will understand my answer. reading carefully helps a lot before writing! and by the way: the mistakes of the threadowner i correct already! and his questions are all answered by many. you really need to start reading before answering. if you have problems with the arguments, thats an other point, then bring your arguments why someone is wrong and its possible to discuss. but you are often such a person, you only attack, say no content...
As expected, you continue your irrelevant rant. "The problem is not that you are off topic, it's that the topic you want to talk about is not the subject of this thread. You continue to stick to that line of thinking." Your correction is now a matter of record. Please move the hell on.
  • #236
  • Dec 3, 2017 10:31am Dec 3, 2017 10:31am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} As expected, you continue your irrelevant rant. "The problem is not that you are off topic, it's that the topic you want to talk about is not the subject of this thread. You continue to stick to that line of thinking." Your correction is now a matter of record. Please move the hell on.

Pm me if anyone wants the link to the 3500 a month signal service with a 93 percent strike rate.

Its a german company
  • #237
  • Dec 3, 2017 12:34pm Dec 3, 2017 12:34pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} As expected, you continue your irrelevant rant. "The problem is not that you are off topic, it's that the topic you want to talk about is not the subject of this thread. You continue to stick to that line of thinking." Your correction is now a matter of record. Please move the hell on.
oh man, you are like a little girl crying about losing a ballon.

you do exactly what i told you, you are bad in. you bring no arguments, you attack because cant read correct and you write crazy posts.
i answred to a special post, so this answer was related to this. if you cant check this, noone can ever help you. i let you alone with your problem now.
your argument is: if someone ask a question you should never answer this question when its not 100% same topic like the thread? then 99% of your post can be deleted my friend, think about it.
  • #238
  • Dec 3, 2017 12:43pm Dec 3, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} This prompted me to write my own requirements for signing up for any Signal Service. This is what I would do if I were to become a Signal provider some day in the future. I have no idea if selling signals is legal in the USA. If it is, I would do the following: I will not become a signal provider until I have put my own money on the line in a live account for a minimum of 3 yrs, and a min. of $50K. I will hire an external independent auditor to audit and publish my trade performance on an independent ratings website that I can link to from...
what you describe its more like a managing account.how you want control how big is the clients accounts/what performance they got....? you want set the trades, copy it , to the client accounts? they give you the logins? you can use darwinex or other for make this simple. or use mq5 market for signal service. but both in 1 product same time is not best way or do complete as managing accounts (or do 2 seperate products, one signal ,one managing....)...use big sides like darwinex, mq5 market or whatever for this,...
  • #239
  • Edited 2:28pm Dec 3, 2017 12:50pm | Edited 2:28pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} This prompted me to write my own requirements for signing up for any Signal Service. This is what I would do if I were to become a Signal provider some day in the future. I have no idea if selling signals is legal in the USA. If it is, I would do the following: I will not become a signal provider until I have put my own money on the line in a live account for a minimum of 3 yrs, and a min. of $50K. I will hire an external independent auditor to audit and publish my trade performance on an independent ratings website that I can link to from...

Your a stud what a great post. Your a great asset to this forum.

This whole industry is so much based on scams
  • #240
  • Dec 3, 2017 1:17pm Dec 3, 2017 1:17pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} What do you mean by "Add one loser and two winners."?
1xSL, 2xTP
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