Long term trading (entry on weekly chart)

UPDATE:

Its been a journey since I created my first journal AUDUSD and I've been all over the place, still trying to figure things out. I think its finally coming down to doing what works , rinse repeat and do the same all over again.

Watchlist

AUDJPY short
CADJPY short I like them better
EURJPY short
NZDJPY short
AUDUSD short
NZDUSD short
CHFJPY short

Lets wait for the week to close.
Next week we might get few short signals on yen crosses

Are we possibly topping on DAX, S&P500 ? (equities in general)

That supports my yen shorts.

Yen crosses so far headed up still. I wouldn't go in for short for a week or so PA doesn't look good to go in for a short.

EURGBP and NZDCAD caught my eye.

yen crosses are climbing up still on monthly. i would leave them for a week or so and will look at them back again for short positions.

NZDCAD monthly is looking real good, supports my short signal on weekly but daily could push up higher. I'll keep an eye on NZDCAD daily for entry. Comms are still dominant with NZD and CAD leading. That means its still too early to go long on GBPAUD, GBPNZD, EURAUD and EURNZD. So for now after all that screening I'm leaning towards UJ long and NZDCAD short. I'll probably take UJ long first.

EURGBP on the other hand still going up, weekly candles also don't look that bearish to me, there could be break out to the upper side - its going down daily I'll drop this for now. Way too far from what I'm willing to risk on daily, weekly candles still look somewhat bullish.

GBPNZD monthly is reaching a bottom on monthly I'll keep an eye on that on weekly. So if and when NZD loses its steam GBPNZD long will be a good shot. We'll just have to wait and see. We're slave to PA.

I mentioned yen crosses climbing up on monthly and weekly candles weren't looking so bearish after all as the week progressed.

USDJPY daily long setup still valid.

Pound seem to be finally getting up against NZD,AUD but I wouldn't go in for a long just yet.

USDJPY long
NZDCAD short seems like a better alternative.

UJ

weekly>daily>monthly

GJ

monthly>weekly>daily

EURJPY

monthly>weekly>daily

Yen crosses are long still.

Advantage of using multiple TF.

Although I mentioned I'll be entering on weekly. Don't disregard daily altogether. Daily chart sometimes offer the best entry. I guess I'll have to use combination of both. But one thing for sure I won't be going lower than daily.

Out of major yen crosses EURJPY is up ahead of UJ and GJ. But UJ offers the best RR and I like the pattern more than GJ. So its UJ if it does go up. I'll probably come back on Monday. Its pretty much standstill last few days.

So here's whats up.

I haven't taken a trade on weekly since my first post on this journal as there haven't been much of a setup that I could take on weekly. So as usual I went down to daily,12h and 8h charts for potential setups. Yesterday I opened two short trades on EURAUD on 8h chart 0.5lot but I managed to close them at -6$ altogether. As of now EURAUD is going down or has gone down about 60pips since yesterday. Now the same old phrase goes "if only I had kept them going"

Here's the problem , its not that I don't know when I put that buy/sell order I may have struggled a LOT with minute charts but since I made the jump to 4h and above I have been doing much better, I've realised that now the "problem" is with me. I have passed through finding "the" method phase successfully. But what remains is discipline which obviously needs a lot of work. I keep closing positions when it goes against me a just a little, even if my SL is still well above. So its me, the problem is me now.

I'll refrain from trading weekly charts for now I don't think my acc can handle the drawdown and its not like my method produces 100% winners one big loss can wipe the whole thing as I'm planning to attempt "rags to riches" similar concept to my trading once I settle with the TF and work on my discipline. I realize that every TF has its pros and cons, I will miss setups if I"m on daily, 4h or 8h. No time frame is perfect. But lately I've really liking 8h and 12h charts as they allow me to get in on a trade unless otherwise I would miss if I were on daily. I still can't decide between 8h and 12h, but I'm leaning towards 12h more as I'm hoping signals may be more reliable than signals on 8h or 4h but I still get to trade setups otherwise not on daily. Daily can miss a lot of moves apparently. 4h can be flaky, really flaky.

12h watchlist

EURCAD long
GBPCAD long
GBPUSD long

Month end is approaching and the calendar is full of central bank speeches that we should definitely beware. I'll check the chart in 3hours 17:00UTC +8 when the 12h candle completes by then Draghi would be done with his speech. We'll see what happens.

EURAUD long in 0.01 lot

EURCAD long is still valid.
EURNZD finally may have found a bottom. Might still get a chance to get in tomorrow 5AM UTC+8.

Everyone's buying euro despite Draghi's dovish comments.

Another thing on lot, I think I should stick with 0.01 lot until I make 20$ (that's 3-5 trades with 0.01 lot depending on the range). If I can stick with my SL and TP just fine and also prove myself that I can pick winning trades I will increase my lot size to 0.5.

Now as promised I won't check the chart until tomorrow morning 5AM UTC+8 when the 12h candle completes. Have to start waking up early again. I promise I'll stick with my SL and TP and will wait for the next candle to complete unless of course my SL hits while I'm asleep tonight. I won't look at it again. There's no point.

EURAUD long closed it at +157pips for 0.01lot that was 11.93$ overnight (that wasn't bad I'm not going to be that greedy)

1.4946 at a potential resistance zone. It could very well blow through this well and I may be should have moved my SL to BE. But 157pips is good enough and we're going into month end 1.4950 is a pretty strong level on 12h so there's always a chance it could fall down heavy and fast (month end moves can be tricky and unpredictable)

AUDNZD long 0.01 lot in.

If I entered right after the last 12h candle at 5:00AM sharp I would have been sitting with +20pips already. I really should wake up at 5:00AM (I woke up at 6:00). Time is money especially when it comes to entries you want to get in right away as soon as the signal presents itself.

Out of AUDNZD long with 7pips +0.43$ it was going real slow unlike euro,pound and yen crosses.

I will try to avoid trading them unless I have nothing else to trade with pound,euro and yen crosses which will be very rare.

its few minutes to 5pm here UTC+8 12h candle will complete soon and I'm screening the charts for more opportunities.

I see yen crosses retreating back NZDJPY leading the way (I actually like this) EURCAD, GBPCAD, GBPAUD long still valid but it isn't time to go long just yet I will check them out tomorrow morning.

For now though I see

NZDJPY short
AUDUSD short

GBPJPY is still going up, month end is approaching. I don't know I don't feel good with NZDJPY short now maybe tomorrow morning.
Same with AUDUSD short. If I miss those I still get a chance to go short with AUDJPY, CADJPY thats the thing with trading many pairs on higher TFs.

I'll pass on NZDJPY, AUDUSD (too close to 12h 200EMA and dollar has been weak lately so I"m not expecting this to drop that far considering AUDNZD turnaround). Check back tomorrow morning.

who knew GBPUSD could climb up 200pips in a span of two days.

On picking up the right setups :

Remember yesterday I liked what I saw on NZDJPY and AUDUSD but something was off with those setups, when I say something was off "it looked like price could snap back at me had I shorted them" so I ended up passing them up and called it a day.

Usually when I see patterns that have a high probability of producing winners I instantly know, they just grab my attention from the get go (I almost have this conviction that nothing would go wrong with this setup, and they usually go as per plan) as soon as I open the charts, but sometimes they're patterns like NZDJPY and AUDUSD they do grab my interest but I always do have this nagging feeling deep down that something is off, and when I try too hard to convince myself that they're the right setups thats usually the the time that I should away from my laptop and save myself from painful losses. Does it make sense ? I don't know about you but it makes a whole lot of sense to me now, after been in this game for 3.7years. Maybe this is what happens after hours of screen time, you just know ?

Looks like I'm going to stay flat until Monday.
Don't think there'll be setups to trade today and tomorrow and we're going into the weekends.

USD is weak across the board especially against the comms euro and pound. So going short with NZDUSD don't seem like such a good idea, even if kiwi is around the same level with USD, NZD is the weakest comm.