Profit From Risk Aversion Economics

This thread will focus on probabilities based trading in both the short-term and long-term.

How is by presenting facts and hypothesis related to economics, currency politics.

Instruments mentioned will be global financial instruments, commodities in mostly USD, especially XAU/USD (Gold / US Dollar), inter/national stock indexes; although the focus will be on major currency pairs from EUR/USD down to NZD/CHF.

Instruments chosen to suit the situation based on the technical, political and fundamental facts.

The Japanese Yen seems to be in the early stages of a substantial bounce, I estimate average upside versus major currency exchange rates will probably be greater than 0.5% within the next month (before 3/24/20).

Choicest major instruments are probably Sell-USD/JPY, Sell-CHF/JPY, Sell-GBP/JPY with take profit limits set between 0.4%-1.6% with intention to close within 3 weeks.

[quote=countaccrue;12771138]The Japanese Yen seems to be in the early stages of a substantial bounce, I estimate average upside versus major currency exchange rates will probably be greater than 0.5% within the next month (before 3/24/20).

That "substantial bounce" on the Japanese Yen only lasted for 2 days and brought a move much quicker (2 days rather than expected 20 days) and less substantial (0.5% move rather than 0.75-1.5% move) then I expected.

That ends that speculation "Japanese Yen bounce".

Choice directions 2/26-3/20 and possibly further in the future.

Buy-EUR/JPY profit-limit = +0.75%.

Buy-OIL/USD - profit-limit @ $59

[quote=countaccrue;12777941] I noticed a sharp JPY move in this direction, more rapid but as substantial as anticipated. So, too quick to close, for future reference.

I made a new trade explorer "IG All Instruments"
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=983564
This time I will follow my strategy by calculating lot size of 10% or 40% latest equity-step.

So far it is up 0.5%.
Positions are managed on an individual basis.

I estimate performance will be ~5% equity gain per month with a drawdown average ~5% maximum drawdown <25% based on lot size and diversification.

I believe a bear market has begun for global stock market prices.

That makes NASDAQ 100 a sell prospect to watch for the coming 6-24 months.

Good thread you've made - I agree that we could easily go into a bear market.

Do you use technicals when trading as well? Or do you just focus on fundamentals?

My focus is technical, 2-year charts and moving averages are most useful.

Buying the Singapore has been working better than expected in the past 4 days and appears to have up to 1.5% more upside left in USD/SGD-sell quote 1.385 3/4/20 with an outlook farther 20 days.
+ Favorite Singapore Dollar trade now is Buy-SGD/JPY t/p = 1.5%.

EUR/USD appears poised to pull back 0.5%-1%.

Buy-GBPJPY 1-10 days 1%, unlimited trade-term-rollover potential. A very risk averse time-price is currently available.

Here's some of my favorite directions today with a 1-4 week outlook.

EUR/MXN-Sell
Dow30/USD-Buy
AUD/JPY-Buy

This thread is about to become neater and more elaborate.

It appears the long awaited first bear market since the recession has finally begun, this time I am quite confident for the first time that it is not too early to claim a reversal has happened.

Oil is offering a very favorable trade opportunity for buyers to profit from a normalization of prices back into the 40USD-60USD per barrel range, it is for the first time in many quarters out of bounds on the downside. Buying AUS200-index, Dow30-index and JPY225-index seem to be some of the other most high probability trade opportunities offered by the global financial market this month as I expect the stock market to partially retrace from the correction at these prices, until the next leg down. That means there's prudency in limiting all exposure buying stock-indices - in my outlooks I still prefer short-selling now even more now than 3 months ago despite prices being corrected.

Another trade opportunity is selling Japanese Yen for retracement as profits will be taken from Yen holders, I favor AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and EUR/JPY with profit-limits set around +1% rather than CHF/JPY or USD/JPY although I daresay it appears the USD/JPY is going to pay buyers despite technical shortcomings on USD versus JPY.

I made a new signal "Two Tenths Equity Trades" because my last signal which operated titled "Half Equity Trades" had too much volatility.

MQL5 link to signal "Two Tenths Equity Trades" - https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=979688

The first positions in the account explain the position of the market. Buying stock market indexes Dow30, Fra40, AUS200, JPY225 for stock-market rebound since the correction I predicted in February happened more severely than expected. Also buying Euro pairs and Pound pairs EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF.

BTC/USD pulled back to market cap under 100-BLN/USD.

It looks like BTC/USD will go above 7,000/USD before resuming downtrend. Currently under 5,900/USD.

Positions in signature signal for stock market indexes have responded since opening late last week. Some of the choicest instrument directions remain Buy (all) FRA40, DOW30, AUS200 and NIKKEI225.

BUY UK-Brent or WTI Oil while quotes are under 30! Profit-limits set between 35 and 50.
Great opportunity to take a big risk on margin. 10X-equity doesn't even seem too risky with quotes so low.