Looking at the chart it seems to me that the AUD is about to strengthen again against the EUR. Any comments?
Milking 4 pairs AUD/NZD, EUR/GBP,NZD/CAD & AUD/CAD for a living 38 replies
Ranging pairs? EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/CAD? 0 replies
The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies
DislikedLooking at the chart it seems to me that the AUD is about to strengthen again against the EUR. Any comments?Ignored
DislikedLooking at the chart it seems to me that the AUD is about to strengthen again against the EUR. Any comments?Ignored
DislikedThe correlation with Gold is frankly a bit to vague to make any short term bets... I sense that carry trades have more of an influence over the short term... and right I now I believe that traders are betting more on low interest rate currencies.... and there is also the end of PM Howard's term, who conceded to Rudd (Labor)Ignored
DislikedAUD is highly associated with carry trades and I could be wrong, but when I followed live charts with AU and Gold side by side, I saw a correlation. I could be wrong, I'll look again and I would suggest that you may want to look at the charts also. I can not post charts (sorry), so if someone would be kind enough to post daily charts of AU and Gold, it would be greatly appreciated.Ignored
DislikedDuring the second half of this year there has been little to no correlation between the AUDUSD and Gold. The indicator at the bottom is the correlation calculation. Generally, anything between -0.5 and +0.5 in considered non-correlated. At the moment there is actually an inverse relationship.Ignored
DislikedPhil,
It also occured to me that when Gold goes up the AUD should strengthen
(a well known correlation that hold up over the long term)
... AT THE SAME TIME, Gold going up also indicates that people's appetite for risk is low, leading traders to forgo those carry trades. This in turn would lead to a weaker AUD.
This constellation would lead to a CONTRADTION, unless one realizes that carry trades influence the AUD in the short term, while Gold prices influence AUD in the long term. DOES THIS MAKE ANY SENSE???
Please respond if you think this is hogwash!
Thank you!
rudensteinIgnored