Use this thread to discuss stock indices.
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Quoting IsotonicDislikedMerlin said recently that the recent hikes in oil prices haven't put the brakes on the US economy. I thought it might be good to check it against the S&P and it looks like he might have a point.
Oil has more than doubled from 30$/barrel from June last year to currently $66. In that time the S&P (Russell would also do) has gone from a low of 1060 (38.2 fib) to nearly 1250 (just under 61.8 fib) - up about 190 points!
But if oil is staying up for the long term, will that eventually slam the breaks?
Or if it is just an oil bubble and bursts dramatically how high could the S&P go!?Ignored
Quoting BlackeagleDislikedHi,
This is my first post in this forum. I have been reading the discussions for a while, and I thought it would be right to contribute if I am getting something free.
Most forum members seem to be short term or day traders, at least this is my understanding. I am a position trader therefore I am mostly using weekly and daily charts, if not monthly. I am full time trader working from home. I trade forex and futures.
I also would like to post my recommendations where appropriate. You can evaluate them if they are profitable or not.
Thanks for everybody who tries to contribute.
As you can see from weekly SP500 chart, trend is down and major support is around 1176. There is a minor support around 1200, so it is likely that we may see a bounce toward broken support in 1219 but then down again. If you are short, wait 1176 level to take profit.Ignored
Quoting merlinDislikedhey iso, what does your fib analysis say the S&P should go to over the next month? im not good with the waves or anything, but it looks like S&P is in a normal corrective wave (looking at the long term chart you posted).Ignored
Quoting merlinDislikedbtw, i just go long S&P futures, part of a mechanical strategy, but i agree with it fundamentallyIgnored
Quoting BlackeagleDislikedHi,
This is my first post in this forum. I have been reading the discussions for a while, and I thought it would be right to contribute if I am getting something free.
Most forum members seem to be short term or day traders, at least this is my understanding. I am a position trader therefore I am mostly using weekly and daily charts, if not monthly. I am full time trader working from home. I trade forex and futures.
I also would like to post my recommendations where appropriate. You can evaluate them if they are profitable or not.
Thanks for everybody who tries to contribute.
As you can see from weekly SP500 chart, trend is down and major support is around 1176. There is a minor support around 1200, so it is likely that we may see a bounce toward broken support in 1219 but then down again. If you are short, wait 1176 level to take profit.Ignored
Quoting IsotonicDislikedi'm not really an expert in the waves either (should i admit that?) but i do see possible resistance at 1296 once the 62 fib is broken.
i tried playing around with fib fans and arcs but they weren't much help either! the only other thing to do is add on a 79 ret and see where that is...Ignored
Quoting IsotonicDislikedI thought it might be good to compare the S&P against the broadest index, the Russell 2000.
I would expect similar price action, and it does look similar however the Russell seems to be going up stronger.
I wonder because the S&P is four times smaller and perhaps more nimble then is it a leading indicator for the Russell, or does the Russell confirm direction for S&P?
Does anybody know how they are linked?Ignored
Quoting IsotonicDislikedLike S&P, approaching the 62 fib but perhaps a little further back. Similar set up, similar price action.
Its interesting to note that the bear bottom was about 4 months later than the S&P so this implies to me that it is a laggard. But this makes sense since the US economy is the engine room for the world economy, and not the UK!Ignored
Quoting merlinDislikedwelcome to the forum Blackeagle! we need some position traders around here!
thanks for your insights...
when it goes to 1176 level, do you think we will get a bounce north or do you think it will sit there for a while? i can see it going to 1176 ONLY if it will bounce. i dont see it going there and sitting for any period. i actually think we saw the bottom today at 1195, but we shall seeIgnored
Quoting IsotonicDislikedMerlin could you go through this chart and the terms used? I can see your buys and sells but don't really understand what you're doing.
Thanks!Ignored
Quoting merlinDislikedi actually think we saw the bottom today at 1195, but we shall seeIgnored