EUR/USD Moving Average Cross EA | Forex Factory

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EUR/USD Moving Average Cross EA

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 18, 2011 2:59pm Jun 18, 2011 2:59pm
Hi Traders, I have been developing a strategy for EU on the H1 TF using a universal moving average ea I found here on FF I think.

Basically it enters a long trade on the cross of the 21 EMA over the 60 EMA when both are above the 200 EMA. Opposite for a short entry. TP is set at 1000 pips with a 70 pip TS. The good thing is the SL is set at 20 pips so a loser will not be big. In backtesting it has about a 48% win rate and the winners are 4 times larger than the losers.

Of course all the parameters can be user defined. I have developed these parameters and find them to be pretty solid.

I have not traded this live but I know that the moving averages I have mentioned are frequently used by many traders. I have backtested it for six months on Alpari US with a 3.67 profit factor with the money management featured activated. It is set at 4% risk per trade which is a bit rich, that can always be reduced to your risk tolerance. (I prefer 2%-3%)

Basically I am putting this out there to see if anyone would like to forward test the ea on various brokers to see if it has any real merit. I know that most traders put very little if any stock in back testing but, the EU does trend pretty well so if you get into a good trend trade with enough breathing room and 70 pips seems to be enough it may be worth a try. It doesn't trade often about once per week.

This is the first thread I have started so hopefully I can post the backtest results and the ea okay. LOL

Happy trading veveryone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_Universal_MA_H1_Jan_-_June_2011.png Size: 63 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 UniversalMACrossEA.mq4   33 KB | 11,639 downloads
  • #2
  • Jun 18, 2011 3:03pm Jun 18, 2011 3:03pm
This EA is nothing new. It was originally provided by FireDave around 2005. There is a lot of documentation on it on the TSD forum.
  • #3
  • Jun 18, 2011 6:33pm Jun 18, 2011 6:33pm
I forgot to post the settings for the parameters I have tested.

You can see the settings in the back test info but, I thought I would explain them.

21 EMA
60 EMA
200EMA
Use third ma=true
SL 20 pips
TP 1000 pips
TS 70 pips
MM=True

I believe the rest are left at default
  • #4
  • Jun 18, 2011 8:42pm Jun 18, 2011 8:42pm
I had been playing with this EA for the past 2 days with other settings.
Actually I was looking for an alert or EA that would also trigger an entry after the slow and medium MA has crossed and the moment the price touches or passed the third fast MA by x pips.
With discrection, if it happens at a S & R confluence point I will then click to confirm the entry.
For any system, which time to trade and where ( support and resistance area ) to trade will enhance the success rate

Can anyone add this to the Ea or create another EA?
Thanks
  • #5
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:40pm Jun 18, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting highway
I had been playing with this EA for the past 2 days with other settings.
Actually I was looking for an alert or EA that would also trigger an entry after the slow and medium MA has crossed and the moment the price touches or passed the third fast MA by x pips.
With discrection, if it happens at a S & R confluence point I will then click to confirm the entry.
For any system, which time to trade and where ( support and resistance area ) to trade will enhance the success rate

Can anyone add this to the Ea or create another EA?
Thanks
Yes Highway an alert for that would be nice. Thanks for the interest.

Care to share about the settings you have been trying?
  • #6
  • Jun 19, 2011 4:28am Jun 19, 2011 4:28am
Tested it. It does look good in the last couple of months, 5 or 6 very profitable trades made up for all the losers in that period. But if you go back to the period before 2010, this strategy is a terrible loser. I think those couple of good trades the last years can be just coincidence, further history backtest confirms that.

Besides, with a 5% risk you wouldn't have even made 50% profit in the last 1,5 year. Not to insult you, but i think this EA combined with these settings isn't really gonna work out on long term Doesn't work on other pairs either by the way.
  • #7
  • Jun 19, 2011 5:46am Jun 19, 2011 5:46am
Hi Winalot

I like EA's working on Moving Average, please upload your set file
BTW, I am a muslim and here for trading only
  • #8
  • Jun 19, 2011 6:34am Jun 19, 2011 6:34am
I use indicators and EA's just to help me see better or alert me. I think relying on indicators or EAs as trade entry cannot give you a durable system.

Whatever settings you use for your MA cross over depends which angle you approach the market

The settings I use might not suit you at all. Anyway ema 10, 21, 62 and most of all, the 365 have my attention.

Try playing this EA with my above EMAs settings.
But activate the EA only with certain conditions.
1. Draw S&R on W1 then zoom to D1 and do the same. Then to H4 and do the same
2 Draw Fibs for weekly and then Daily.
3 Have M1 , W1 D1 pivots
You will find strong confluence points.
That is how I use indicators

I assume price move from one confluence to another.
Try on your W1 or D1 chart - wait for price to come to anyone S or R confluence.

Then activate your EA. Stop Loss will be minimal
Your TP could be the next S or R on D1 W1 or begin partial TP on H1 or H4 's S&R

My additional edge on shorter TF, I apply for direction bias are stocks and other indices
Example the DOW is affecting the Yen....etc
If the DOW is down Asia session, I have PLAN A ...etc as I enter Europe.
Plan B... if....

Don't get your EA activated before these confluence but also only on HIGH trading times.

I pay a lot of time reading behind HOT news to locate risk on or risk off for each session. From that I also can distinguish whether it is a FOREX move or is it a move from the stock market sentiment - a vital way of choosing which pair to trade and which pair will be idle.

I hardly can believe you can make money on a long term basis just relying on a ROBOT. Any ROBOT will need to evolve and you who create the ROBOT needs endlessly to alter it. And having acquired knowledge on HOW, WHY, WHAT, WHEN etc is needed to move with that FLOW.

Good luck
  • #9
  • Jun 19, 2011 6:56am Jun 19, 2011 6:56am
I did an extensive test on FXCM Strategy Trader on Eur Usd and it gave the 10sma 72sma combo as the best settings for EURUSD over an 18 months period without take profit or stoploss. Just exiting and entering on the cross over.

Quoting winalot
I forgot to post the settings for the parameters I have tested.

You can see the settings in the back test info but, I thought I would explain them.

21 EMA
60 EMA
200EMA
Use third ma=true
SL 20 pips
TP 1000 pips
TS 70 pips
MM=True

I believe the rest are left at default
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #10
  • Jun 19, 2011 6:58am Jun 19, 2011 6:58am
Quoting esquire
Tested it. It does look good in the last couple of months, 5 or 6 very profitable trades made up for all the losers in that period. But if you go back to the period before 2010, this strategy is a terrible loser. I think those couple of good trades the last years can be just coincidence, further history backtest confirms that.

Besides, with a 5% risk you wouldn't have even made 50% profit in the last 1,5 year. Not to insult you, but i think this EA combined with these settings isn't really gonna work out on long term Doesn't work on other pairs...
Thanks for your input Esquire, I have back tested it for 18 months and it still has a profit factor of 1.99

See attached statement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EH_H1_Uni_MA_Jan_2010_-_June_2011.png Size: 66 KB
  • #11
  • Jun 19, 2011 7:01am Jun 19, 2011 7:01am
Quoting FXtime
Hi Winalot

I like EA's working on Moving Average, please upload your set file
BTW, I am a muslim and here for trading only
Hi Fxtime, I tried but was unable to upload the setfile.

You can see the settings in the strategy tester statement at post #1 also I posted the main settings in another post on page one.

Hope that helps
  • #12
  • Jun 19, 2011 7:02am Jun 19, 2011 7:02am
Quoting okehiedon
I did an extensive test on FXCM Strategy Trader on Eur Usd and it gave the 10sma 72sma combo as the best settings for EURUSD over an 18 months period without take profit or stoploss. Just exiting and entering on the cross over.
Thanks for the settings. would you mind posting the strategy tester results?

Thanks for the interest and your input.
  • #13
  • Jun 19, 2011 7:20am Jun 19, 2011 7:20am
Quoting highway
I use indicators and EA's just to help me see better or alert me. I think relying on indicators or EAs as trade entry cannot give you a durable system.

Whatever settings you use for your MA cross over depends which angle you approach the market

The settings I use might not suit you at all. Anyway ema 10, 21, 62 and most of all, the 365 have my attention.

Try playing this EA with my above EMAs settings.
But activate the EA only with certain conditions.
1. Draw S&R on W1 then zoom to D1 and do the same. Then to H4 and do the same
2 Draw Fibs...
Thanks Highway, You have a tremendous amount of knowledge of the markets thanks for sharing that.

Unfortunately with a full time job and family commitments I have little time to actually study and trade that is the reason I am drawn to expert advisors. I know most traders don't trust them and I understand that.

Thanks again for all your input, I know you are successful
  • #14
  • Jun 19, 2011 7:21am Jun 19, 2011 7:21am
The report uses a starting lot size of 0.1 for 1000 dollars. I have posted just the top 5 with all the stats

Quoting winalot
Thanks for the settings. would you mind posting the strategy tester results?

Thanks for the interest and your input.
Attached File(s)
File Type: csv Report_2011-06-13_19-12-23-2.csv   < 1 KB | 1,838 downloads
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #15
  • Jun 19, 2011 7:24am Jun 19, 2011 7:24am
Quoting okehiedon
The report uses a starting lot size of 0.1 for 1000 dollars. I have posted just the top 5 with all the stats

Send me your email and I can post it on excel file to you which seems much better in representative form than allowed by forex factory
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #16
  • Jun 19, 2011 7:56am Jun 19, 2011 7:56am
Quoting winalot
Thanks for your input Esquire, I have back tested it for 18 months and it still has a profit factor of 1.99

See attached statement
Try testing it before that, start somewhere in 2008 & watch the equity line going down.

My point is that the couple of trades that do make this profitable (check your equity line, it will show you 5/6 steep lines up) are insignificant, and could be coincidence that they happened. They didn't happen that often before 2010, and they didn't happen at other pairs.

Besides, your statement shows something like a 45% profit in 1,5 year. Buying S&P stocks for the last 1,5 year would have given you that results.
  • #17
  • Jun 19, 2011 11:06am Jun 19, 2011 11:06am
hey, just a quick question. I use Oanda and so when i test an EA it uses a 10 pip spread which isnt how it would really be so M5 and M15 trades are completely messed up.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

thanks

Jeremy
  • #18
  • Jun 19, 2011 11:22am Jun 19, 2011 11:22am
Quoting JeremyWS
hey, just a quick question. I use Oanda and so when i test an EA it uses a 10 pip spread which isnt how it would really be so M5 and M15 trades are completely messed up.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

thanks

Jeremy
I don't know. I use Alpari with about a 2pip spread and also I use the H1 time frame
  • #19
  • Jun 19, 2011 11:31am Jun 19, 2011 11:31am
Quoting esquire
Try testing it before that, start somewhere in 2008 & watch the equity line going down.

My point is that the couple of trades that do make this profitable (check your equity line, it will show you 5/6 steep lines up) are insignificant, and could be coincidence that they happened. They didn't happen that often before 2010, and they didn't happen at other pairs.

Besides, your statement shows something like a 45% profit in 1,5 year. Buying S&P stocks for the last 1,5 year would have given you that results.
Hi esquire, I am not sure where you get 45% profit in 1.5 years. The statement I posted in post #17 shows net profit of $4,647 on a $1000 beginning balance. I am not great with math but isn't that like 464% profit?
  • #20
  • Jun 19, 2011 12:00pm Jun 19, 2011 12:00pm
One problem with this EA is that is highly dependent on the broker. User X and User Y run backtests on different brokers with the same settings, but the results turn out differently.... Why?

Because each broker's data feed is varying slightly from the others. This drastically effects smaller MAs (1, 2, etc) but can even cause difference in larger ones.
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