Daily Analysis & Signals

MaiMarFX provides a comprehensive service to day traders ranging from basic signal packages to professional, fully managed signal packages.

First post:
What a thrilling election night!
What was feared is now official: Donald Trump was elected U.S. President.

The impact of a Trump presidency on the U.S. economy is yet uncertain and it is precisely this uncertainty that worries the market. As a trader however, we are not influenced by political developments as long as there is some volatility to drive our trades. As a result, we are looking back at a profitable trading night with the euro rising towards 1.1270, providing euro bulls a good profit of 128 pips by our long-entry. The British pound lagged behind as the upward momentum of the currency was initially limited by the future Brexit outlook.

EUR/USD: The euro was showing an upward trend this morning and based on this initial trend we were looking for higher targets at 1.1340, 1.1370 and 1.1420. However, now that the euro had given up all of its election gains the bias hasnt essentially changed in favor of the euro bulls. As we are skeptical about a sustained upward trend in this pair we will now focus on a break below 1.1025. In order to expect further upward momentum the euro would need to break above 1.1175 again.

GBP/USD: The pound benefited from the sharp sell-off in the U.S. dollar. A next resistance is seen at 1.2550 while a break above that level may invigorate fresh bullish momentum towards 1.2670. Sterling bears should however wait for a break below 1.2350 in order to sell the pound.
Here are our daily signal alerts:

EUR/USD
Long @ 1.1286 SL 25 TP 20, 40
Short @ 1.1189 SL 25 TP 17, 40 We were already able to pocket some gains here.
GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2525 SL 25 TP 20, 70
Short @ 1.2410 SL 25 TP 15, 40 Having already reached at least our first TP more than two times we are not going to re-enter.


Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

We wish you good trades and many pips!
Disclaimer: Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Financial markets have recovered from the initial Trump shock while investors reassess their positions after Donald Trump's presidential win. Trump's surprise victory added to a new mood of optimism, with his promises of public spending boosting speculation his term will lead to higher inflation and an easing of financial rules. The U.S. dollar moved higher within an overall friendlier market environment. Now that the election uncertainty is over, investors are weighing prospects for the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Odds for a December move have increased to 82 percent after the election as Fed policy makers are basically on track to raise interest rates next month. Fed President James Bullard reinforced this assumption saying "Our view has called for a single rate increase and I think December would be a reasonable time to implement that increase.
EUR/USD
The euro currently seems to be searching for a near-term bottom after dropping back below 1.0950. While we see a strong bearish candle in the daily chart, the downward trend came to a halt above 1.0850 for the time being. If the euro drops below 1.0840/30 we expect the pair tumbling towards the next crucial support area around 1.08/1.0770. In case of any pullbacks, dollar bulls may take the opportunity to sell the pair at higher levels.


GBP/USD
The British pound strengthened against the greenback after the support at 1.2350 was able to withstand the downward pressure. We currently see sterling formatting a short-term upward channel whereas gains might be limited until 1.2620 based on that channel. If the pound however breaks above 1.2625 we may see further gains towards 1.2670/90.


The only interesting piece of economic data today will be Michigan Confidence scheduled for release at 15:00 UTC but we generally do not expect any major market moves today.
Have a wonderful weekend.

Here are our daily signal alerts:

EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0925 SL 25 TP 18, 60
Short @ 1.0865 SL 25 TP 20, 40 This trade was stopped out but we traded at a low risk as recommended to subscribers.
GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2590 SL 25 TP 20, 70 We have reached all profit targets with this trade
Short @ 1.2520 SL 25 TP 20, 50

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
Swing Signal performance 2016:
October: +582 pips
September: +357 pips


We wish you good trades and many pips!
Disclaimer: Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

After the dust settled around the U.S. Presidential elections, market participants returned to business as usual while risk appetite has been boosted by the Trump reflation trade. The focus now shifts back to Federal Reserve rate hike in December, while there was some concern that a Trump victory would give the Fed reason to delay further tightening. Instead the U.S. dollar and U.S. yields are running higher amid speculation Trump's plans to boost infrastructure spending will spur rate hikes as inflation and economic growth pick up. Fed rate hike odds are currently holding above 80 percent and economic data this week may further support the Fed's hawkish bias.

Overall, economic conditions for the Eurozone remain stable and euro traders should bear in mind that the recent dip in EUR/USD can be attributed to the dollar's rate expectations. Thus, the appetite for USD will continue to dominate the price action for the time being. The support area around 1.0770 gave in to the euros downward pressure and sent the currency pair to 1.0730. Losses might be extended towards 1.07 and 1.0630. Near-term resistances are however seen at 1.0850 and 1.0950.

The GBP/USD dropped back below 1.25 but found some halt above 1.2450. Sterling bears should focus on a break below 1.2440 which may reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.2350 and 1.2270. If the pound is able to climb back above 1.26, we expect further gains towards 1.2720. U.K. CPI data on Tuesday will receive most attention but Wednesday's U.K. Employment Report may also be worth watching.
We wish you a good start to the new week and many profitable trades.

Daily Forex Signals:
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0840 SL 25 TP 20, 40
Short @ 1.0770 SL 25 TP 30-40 Hit our profit target.
GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2580 SL 25 TP 30, 50
Short @ 1.2430 SL 25 TP 30-35 Hit our profit target.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
Swing Signal performance 2016:
October: +582 pips
September: +357 pips

Daily Signal performance in pips:
November 2016:
EUR/USD: +158 pips
GBP/USD: +192 pips

Is The Euro Headed Toward Parity?

The euro came under further pressure and tumbled towards 1.07. Many market participants wonder now, how far the single European currency can sink. Having already lost six big figures in the aftermath of Trump's victory, the parity bet returns into investors' minds. Traders see about a 45 percent chance the euro will sink to $1 in 2017. Some analysts forecast the euro will drop to 95 cents by the end of next year. We will have to wait and see.
EUR/USD
Looking at the weekly chart, we see a slightly ascending support line which is currently around the 1.06-level. Having declined below 1.0770, the euro might tend to test this lower support before any major pullbacks occur. The euro found some halt above 1.0710 and as long as it remains above 1.07 it may correct some losses towards 1.0805 and 1.0850.



Here are our daily signal alerts:

EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0775 SL 25 TP 20, 30 Hit TP
Short @ 1.0740 SL 25 TP 40

Daily Signal performance in pips:
November 2016:
EUR/USD: +215 pips

Even if there was little consistency in the performance of the EUR/USD yesterday, the trading month of November proves to be profitable for day traders.
Our monthly performance in pips:
EUR/USD: +200 pips
GBP/USD: +267 pips

Today we were somewhat unlucky as we missed out on the profitable move in the euro, which began 15 minutes too early (that time we haven’t placed any entries).
Anyway, we hope for some profits in the GBP/USD. We are currently short here and were already able to take some small profits.

Here are our daily signal alerts:
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0775 SL 25 TP 25, 40
Short @ 1.0735 SL 25 TP 40 missed out on that trade
GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2520 SL 25 TP 20, 35
Short @ 1.2435 SL 25 TP 20, 50 open short trade

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

While the U.S. dollar weakened against most peers Wednesday, the euro continued its slide and dropped below 1.07. Whether this downside break proves to be sustained remains to be seen and may hinge on today's economic reports and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony. Yellen will be addressing Congress for the first time since Trump's victory and she is likely to be asked if fiscal stimulus under Trump could affect the outlook. While Yellen might be unable to give a clear answer on the future outlook, she is likely to talk about the current outlook which is largely positive.
A December rate hike is almost completely priced in and all the market needs is the confirmation from Yellen. Apart from the December outlook, traders should pay close attention to any revision to future hike projections which will be market-moving. The hearing begins at 15:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. EST).
Before Yellen's testimony the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Report at 13:30 UTC will be worth watching and may positively affect the USD.
While the main focus is on the U.S. dollar, Eurozone Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC, but this report is not expected to have a major impact on the euro. From a technical perspective we see a next support around 1.06 from where some pullbacks may occur. In case of a break below 1.0580 a next lower target should be at 1.0520. Those who are looking to buy the dollar on dips may wait for pullbacks towards 1.0740 and 1.08.
The pound sterling traded range-bound between 1.25 and 1.24. The cable still faces a crucial support at 1.2350 and we will therefore wait for a sustained break below that level in order to expect further losses. On the upside we see an important resistance around 1.2550. U.K. Retail Sales are due for release at 9:30 UTC and may affect the price action in the GBP/USD.

Daily Forex Signals:

EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0730 SL 25 TP 20, 40 ...we are currently long. Let's wait and see.
Short @ 1.0665 SL 25 TP 20, 40
GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2470 SL 25 TP 20, 40 We were already able to take some small profits
Short @ 1.2385 SL 25 TP 20, 40

Daily Signal performance in pips:
November 2016:
EUR/USD: +200 pips
GBP/USD: +260 pips

Time for some correction?

And the winners were once again: Dollar bulls. However, it was no surprise that the dollar further strengthened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the likelihood of a December rate hike. We all know that a rate increase is being well priced in BUT with more than three weeks to go before the FOMC rate decision in mid-December the dollar is clearly overbought, making corrections more likely in the near-term.

EUR/USD
The euro trades in a well-defined downward channel and based on that channel the euro might tend to drop towards 1.0525 before it corrects some losses. But be careful: The pair is oversold and we should now expect upcoming corrections towards 1.07 and 1.0750.


We gained again a good profit this week and wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

Here are our daily signal alerts:

EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0670 SL 25 TP 20-30
Short @ 1.0580 SL 25 TP 40-50

Daily Signal performance in pips:
November 2016:
EUR/USD: +201 pips
GBP/USD: +300 pips


The market's sentiment was recently strongly influenced by political events and while political risks in the Eurozone continue to build up, the euro went into a tailspin. With the Italian constitutional referendum coming in on December 4, the situation for the euro may deteriorate as political risks are rising across Europe.
Trumps win seems to have reinvigorated populist sentiment across the continent and if the UK can Brexit, the US can elect Trump, it is also possible that France and Italy could pull out of the EU. In this uncertain political environment, the euro remains vulnerable to losses. However, bearing in mind that the euro is oversold in short-term time frames, we expect some corrections in the EUR/USD.

The economic calendar this week is rather light in terms of market-moving data. The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday usually leads to low liquidity in the market, which is why we do not expect significant market movements this week. The only interesting piece of U.S. data will be Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are expected to confirm the hawkish tilt of the Federal Reserve. Everything else than a Fed rate hike next month would be a big surprise.

From the Eurozone, we have the PMI Report (Wednesday) and the German IFO Report (Thursday) due for release this week. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghispeaks at the European Parliament in Strasbourg today at 16:00 UTC.
Technically we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.07 and 1.0530 in the near-term while a break above 1.0720 may invigorate some bullish momentum towards 1.0770 and 1.08 whereas a break below 1.0520 would increase the pressure on the currency pair.

GBP/USD
The pound sterling dropped towards 1.23 and sterling bears are eager to see whether the cable will break below that crucial support. After a break below 1.23 we see a next lower target at 1.2150. A break above 1.2550 however, would shift the bias in favor of the bulls.

From the U.K. , the only interesting piece of economic data will be the Autumn Budget Statement (Wednesday) and Friday's GDP Report.

Daily Forex Signals:
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0615 SL 25 TP 15, 50 Those who entered early in the morning were already able to take some profit
Short @ 1.0565 SL 25 TP 20, 40
GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2370 SL 25 TP 30-40 Hit TP easily
Short @ 1.2290 SL 25 TP 20, 40

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

We finally saw some corrections in both major currency pairs at the beginning of this holiday-shortened week as investors took profit on long dollar positions. While the euro rose only moderately to 1.0650, the British pound proved to be the best performer and surged to a high of 1.2513 Monday.

The pound gave up some of its gains today but if it remains firmly above 1.2430 it may head for another test of 1.25. Let's see.

Here are our daily signal alerts:

GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2525 SL 25 TP 20, 50
Short @ 1.2475 SL 25 TP 15, 40 Has already hit all profit targets

EUR/USD - Interesting chart formation

While there are good arguments for both bulls and bears favoring one direction or another, it should be interesting in which direction the euro may be heading within the next days. Given the uncertainty ahead of the Italian referendum, the risk is to the downside but with investors staying on the sidelines in the run-up to the important vote on Sunday, the euro could also trade directionless sideways. For the time being, we expect the pair to range-trade between 1.0670 and 1.0570. Above 1.0670 it may head for a test of 1.0710, whereas a break below 1.0560 may invigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.0470.


Here are our daily signal alerts:

Long @ 1.0675 SL 25 TP 20 - 30
Short @ 1.0570 SL 25 TP 20, 40

GBP/USD Finally Bullish Breakout

Today's profit: +46 pips by our long entry

We got what we have been looking for this morning – a bullish breakout in GBP/USD after yesterday’s trading was not to our liking as we had to give up some monthly gains on the last trading day of November. While the Cable already seemed to test the 1.2560-resistance level in the early morning hours, a sustained upside break was anything but certain given the strength of the U.S. dollar and investor's risk aversion ahead of tomorrow's U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
We now see a next resistance around 1.2670 before the pound may climb towards 1.2750 and even perhaps 1.28. However, sterling bulls should bear in mind that ahead of the NFP data, the greenback will set the tone in the currency market which is why the pound could easily give up some of its recent gains on profit taking. The previous resistance zone at 1.2560 could now turn into support for the GBP/USD.



Daily Forex Signals:

GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2560 SL 25 TP 40-50
Short @ 1.2490 SL 25 TP 15, 30

Daily Signal performance in pips:
December 2016:
EUR/USD: +94 pips
GBP/USD: +149 pips

Surprise Effect At The ECB Meeting?

The euro found firm ground near 1.05 - Further gains to come?
Bullish scenario: Given the recent upward channel we expect potential gains to be limited to 1.0835 but the price action will depend on Draghi's communication. If the euro climbs above 1.0860, we might see a run for 1.0910 and 1.0950. We see a strong resistance around 1.0950 and it would require an unexpectedly hawkish ECB statement, or a misinterpretation of it, to drive the euro beyond this level.
Bearish scenario: On the bottom side we expect the 1.0680-level to lend some support for the euro. Below 1.0660 however, we favor a bearish bias and shift our focus to lower targets at 1.0580 and 1.0470.

The ECB announces its rate decision at 12:45 UTC but no changes are expected. Then all eyes turn to the ECB Press Conference 45 minutes later.

Here are our daily signal alerts:
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0790 SL 25 TP 40, 60 Currently we are long...
Short @ 1.0740 SL 25 TP 25, 50

No chance for a USD rally after the Fed? All eyes on the Fed's decision and its projections for 2017

If the Fed meets the market's expectations for (only) two rate hikes next year, investors may tend to take profits on dollar long position before year-end, which is why the dollar rally may fizzle out.
Let's shift the focus to the technical outlook while we wonder, whether there could be a major pullback in the U.S. dollar.


EUR/USD
The euro faces its crucial support area between 1.05 and 1.0460. If the euro falls below 1.0460 it could experience a sell-off towards 1.0220 before year-end. If however, the pair is able to hold above the 1.05/1.0470-mark chances are that the euro rises towards 1.08, 1.0850 and 1.0950 on profit-taking. However, everything now depends on the Fed and its projections for 2017.




Here are our daily signal alerts:

EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0585 SL 25 TP 20, 40 We already took some profit
Short @ 1.0525 SL 25 TP 20, 40

Daily Signal performance in pips:
December 2016:
EUR/USD: +193 pips
GBP/USD: +158 pips

Today could thus be a big day for currency traders and everyone hopes to profit from volatile fluctuations but keep in mind that a Fed rate hike is already priced in and that the major focus will be on the future outlook for monetary policy heading into 2017. Moreover, the Fed will present an updated assessment with projections on inflation, growth, unemployment and the all-important dot plot forecast. If the dot plot signals only two or fewer hikes next year, the dollar may depreciate as investors liquidate long positions in the U.S. dollar. If, however, the Fed delivers a hawkish hike in terms of its future outlook, the dollar will soar and we could see a continuation of the dollar rally ahead of year-end.
We cannot predict the market's reaction but we can focus on the technical picture in order to validate profitable trading opportunities:

EUR/USD
The euro traded little changed between 1.0670 and 1.06 on Tuesday. Given the recent sideways trading we will focus on a break either above 1.07 or below 1.05. Above 1.0710 we may see the euro rising towards 1.08 and 1.0950. Below 1.0460 however, the bias shifts again in favor of the bears with a next lower target being at 1.0310.



GBP/USD
The cable recently formatted a sideways trading range within its current upward trend channel. We will wait for price breakouts above or below this range while we bear in mind that a significant downside break below 1.2550 also signifies a break of the recent upward channel. Sterling bears should however rather wait for prices below 1.25 in order to sell sterling towards 1.23. In case of a Fed disappointment or a 'dovish rate hike', the pound could climb towards 1.2880 but let's be surprised.

First of all we would like to wish you a happy New Year and hope that you all mad it well into 2017.


EUR/USD
In short-term time frames we expect the euro to trade between 1.0670 and 1.04. Above 1.0675 we may see an upward movement toward 1.0850 whereas a break below 1.0380 could reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum. A crucial support is however seen at 1.04 while, on the upside, the euro will have to break through the 1.05-mark again in order to spark some bullish momentum.


Here are our daily signal alerts:

EUR/USD
Long at 1.0525 SL 25 TP 20, 40
Short at 1.0440 SL 25 TP 20, 40 Hit all profit targets this morning

Daily Signal performance in pips:
January 2017:
EUR/USD: +63 pips
GBP/USD: +42 pips


The pound's price action is dominated by political risk and fears of a so-called hard Brexit. The pound sterling traded lower against the greenback after comments by Prime Minister Theresa May on the U.K.'s European Union negotiations. May signaled regaining control of immigration and lawmaking are her Brexit priorities even if that means quitting Europe's single market. Bearish momentum accelerated this morning, pushing the pound below its crucial support at 1.22. If the currency pair is unable to stabilize above 1.22, we expect further losses towards 1.2120 and 1.21. Looking at the technical picture we see that the descending trend line of the recent downward channel is currently at 1.2120, providing an attractive opportunity to buy sterling towards 1.22. A short-term resistance is however seen at 1.2270.


Daily Forex Signals:
GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2210 SL 25 TP 20, 40
Short @ 1.2175 SL 25 TP 20, 40 We were already able to take some profit here

Daily Signal performance in pips:
January 2017:
EUR/USD: +93 pips
GBP/USD: +72 pips


GBP/USD:The 1.21-support withstands the downward pressure.

Morning analysis: The biggest story in the market was the sharp decline of the British pound on Monday. Sterling touched its lowest level since October on hardening Brexit talk and we are curious to see whether the 1.21-level will be able to withstand the downward pressure. In case of a dip below 1.21 a next lower target could be at 1.2080 but this should be the lower bound of a short-lived downward trend. Those who bet on a pullback now, should focus on prices above 1.2080 to evaluate their positions. If the pound drops below that level we expect accelerated bearish momentum, driving the pound towards 1.19. In case of pullback in the GBP/USD, we expect the 1.2230-level to act as a short-term resistance. Anyway, yesterday was a profitable trading day for sterling traders with our short entry providing a good gain.

Here are our daily signal alerts:

GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2210 SL 25 TP 20, 40
Short @ 1.2120 SL 25 TP 40 We had a SL with that order but not every day is always successful

With the lack of market-moving data Tuesday there is not much news to report, with the exception that traders suffered some losses as the euro and pound entered calmer waters and traded choppily sideways.
The GBP/USD provided no profitable trading opportunities yesterday as the pair traded consolidated between 1.22 and 1.21. With the 1.21-support still being unbroken, the technical picture has not changed. If the pound breaks significantly above 1.22 we see a next resistance at 1.2220/50 while a break above 1.2275 may reinvigorate bullish momentum towards 1.23 and 1.2350. Sterling bears should however focus on a break below 1.2080.

Here are our daily signal alerts:

GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2225 SL 25 TP 20, 40

Short @ 1.2145 SL 25 TP 20, 40 Has hit all profit targets


We wish you good trades and many pips!
Disclaimer: Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Daily Signal performance in pips:
January 2017:
EUR/USD: +143 pips
GBP/USD: +100 pips

The cable's trading range was extended to 230 pips following yesterday's market turmoil. Short traders were able to pocket a good profit while the bullish momentum ran out of steam towards the end of the trading day. Whether we will see a continuation of the recent upward correction remains to be seen and hinges on the appetite for U.S. dollars.
Above 1.2275, chances are that the pound rises towards 1.2350/80. Current support levels are however seen at 1.21 and 1.2020.

Here are our daily signal alerts:

GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2275 SL 25 TP 20, 40 Again a very profitable trading day today!
Short @ 1.2165 SL 25 TP 20, 40

The British pound tends to be the main topic in the days ahead and traders should prepare for high volatility in all GBP crosses. The pound gapped down over 1.5 percent at the open of the trading week as the market is positioning for hard-Brexit rhetoric from U.K. Prime Minister Theresa Mayon Tuesday.

While uncertainty around Brexit has persisted since the Brexit referendum, we may get some element of clarity on Tuesday when PM Theresa May delivers a speech in which she will present her plans for Britain’s exit of the European Union. Recent comments from May have appeared to indicate that a hard Brexit and thus a clean break from the European Union's single market may be more likely. The pound sterling therefore has been put under increased pressure by fears that May will signal plans to quit the single market, even though the prospect of higher inflation has been a bullish driver for sterling. On Tuesday we also have the U.K. Consumer Price report scheduled for release, which may provide some relief for the pound, provided that May won’t choke off any recovery by supporting hard Brexit fears. Tuesday will therefore be a high volatile trading day for sterling traders.

The cable opened this week significantly lower, showing a gap of more than 150 pips. As market participants prepare for the idea of a hard Brexit we expect the pound to remain under pressure ahead of May's speech. Nonetheless, bullish price action may tend to close the gap (as is often the case with gaps) before we see a next leg down. With that in mind, the lower trend line at around 1.20 may proves as a short-term support for the pound. In case the pound declines below 1.1970/60, we expect further losses toward the flash-crash low at 1.1919.