Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

https://www.rbth.com/news/2017/06/06...-prince_777670

 

1. WORLD

Qatar not discussed at meeting between Putin and Saudi deputy crown prince


June 6, 2017 TASS

 

1. Russia expects Qatar diplomatic crisis to be resolved peacefully

TAGS
VLADIMIR PUTIN,QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA
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Vladimir Putin met with Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud on May 30. Source: Kremlin.ru


Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabias Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud did not discuss the Qatar issue at their Moscow meeting, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, TASS reports.

"No, it (the situation concerning the conflict between Qatar and some other Arab countries) was not discussed," Peskov told reporters.

Saudi Arabias Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud, who is also the countrys second deputy prime minister and defense minister, met with the Russian president in Moscow on May 30. During the meeting, the parties focused on bilateral issues.

On June 5, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, as well as Yemen, the interim government of Libya, the Maldives and Mauritius announced cutting diplomatic relations with Qatar over Dohas hostile policies, interference in other Arab countries internal affairs and support of terrorism. Some countries said they would cut sea and air traffic to Qatar, as well as expel its diplomats and citizens. Qatar expressed regret over this decision calling it groundless. Russia said it would not meddle in the situation. Moscow also expressed hope that the issue would be solved peacefully and would not become an obstacle in the fight against terrorism.

Read more: Russia expects Qatar diplomatic crisis to be resolved peacefully


The moniker “Palpatine” used by these “Deep State” conspirators seeking President Trump’s death, this report explains, refers to a fictional movie character popularized in the famous Star Wars movie trilogy who is also known as “Darth Sidious”, or simply “The Emperor”—whom Qatari Emir Sheikh Al Thani is known as too as revealed by recently hacked emails that show his support for Islamic terror groups all across the Middle East, but that Qatar quickly labeled as “fake news”.


Important to note about Qatar, this report says, is that it has the 3rd largest natural gas proven reserves in the world after Russia and Iran—but with the proposed 5,600 km (3,500 mi) pipeline project known as South Pars agreed to by Iran, Iraq, and Syria to ship natural gas to Europe, “established/created” the Islamic State (ISIS/IS/ISIL/Daesh) to throw the entire Middle East into chaos and bloodshed so that Qatari Emir Al Thani, instead, could build his own pipeline.

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Aligned with Qatari Emir Al Thani in establishing the Islamic State in order to destroy Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran, this report continues, were radical Islamic Wahhabism sects within Saudi Arabia and the Obama regime—and with them all believing that Hillary Clinton would become the next US president, funneled tens-of-millions of dollars into her failed campaign, her money laundering organization called the Clinton Foundation, and even gave her husband, former US President Bill Clinton, a $1 million birthday present.


To the horror and bloodshed unleashed by Qatar upon the entire Middle East so that they could build their pipeline, this report grimly states, was noted by the Obama regime who in one of their secretly released emails stunningly acknowledged what was occurring by their stating “we need to use our diplomatic and more traditional intelligence assets to bring pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are providing clandestine financial and logistic support to Isis and other radical groups in the region”—and that Wikileaks founder Julian Assange warned was “the most significant email in the whole collection”.

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Neither the Obama regime, or Hillary Clinton, did anything to stop Qatar’s reign of Islamic terror choosing, instead, to create a “Deep State” military-intelligence base there—where today over 10,000 American troops, CIA operatives and private mercenaries remain stationed at that nations Al-Udeid Airbase.

Only President Trump, in fact, this report notes, warned the world and the American people what was occurring, when during his campaign for the US presidency, he publicly stated that President Obama and Hillary Clinton were the founder and co-founder of ISIS—and that he reiterated to the leaders of over 50 Arab nations in Saudi Arabia during his historic visit there last month.

As to why Qatari Emir Al Thani and the Hillary Clinton aligned “Deep State” wanted President Trump assassinated by the end of May, this report explains, was to keep him from meeting these Arab leaders in Saudi Arabia—and where Trump and these Arab leaders established the Global Center for Combatting Extremist Ideology and, most importantly, formed a new group to cut off all funding for Islamic terrorists.

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Egypt President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (left), King Salman of Saudi Arabia (center) and President Trump (right) commemorate alliance against Qatar and US “Deep State”

With Qatar now being isolated by President Trump and his Arab nation backers, this report concludes, the US propaganda mainstream media is, once again, failing to tell the American people the important truths that are now occurring, choosing, instead, to continue manufacturing “fake news”—like CNN, who this past weekend after the horrific radical Islamic terror attack in London, were shockingly discovered to be staging “fake news” demonstrations that horrified the entire world.

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COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: This is what understanding GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES ARE REALLY ABOUT. You could call the information that Martin A. Armstrong shared this morning whatever you want to call it however I call it a MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENT if it continues in the direction that it appears to be going. I then went to my other information source as we now understand Main Street News whether in the USA (FAKE NEWS - CNN) or TASS rarely tell the truth or the whole story.

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - US 30

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - Gold

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - Silver

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - 10 Year US Bonds

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

Comments from Benjaminis: Now you can see it is all about RISK ON or RISK OFF and that determines the MONEY FLOW.

More comments later after the Equity Markets OPEN at 9:30 AM (New York Time)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...-borders-qatar

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, & Bahrain Cut Diplomatic Ties, Shut All Borders With Qatar
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by Tyler Durden
Jun 5, 2017 6:20 AM


Just days after president Trump left the region, a geopolitical earthquake is taking place in the Middle East tonight as the rift between Qatar and other members of the (likely extinct) Gulf Cooperation Council explodes with Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt cutting all diplomatic ties with Qatar accusing it of "speading chaos," by funding terrorism and supporting Iran.


The dispute between Qatar and the Gulf's Arab countries started over a purported hack of Qatar's state-run news agency. It has spiraled since, and appears to be climaxing now... just days after President Trump left the region.



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As Al Arabiya reports, Bahrain has announced it is cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar, according to a statement carried on Bahrain News Agency.


The statement on Monday morning said Bahrain decided to sever ties with its neighbor “on the insistence of the State of Qatar to continue destabilizing the security and stability of the Kingdom of Bahrain and to intervene in its affairs”.

The statement also said Qatar’s incitement of the media and supporting of terrorist activities and financing groups linked to Iran were reasons behind the decision.

“(Qatar has) spread chaos in Bahrain in flagrant violation of all agreements and covenants and principles of international law Without regard to values, law or morals or consideration of the principles of good neighborliness or commitment to the constants of Gulf relations and the denial of all previous commitments,” the statement read.

Qatari citizens have 14 days to leave Bahraini territories while Qatari diplomats were given 48 hours to leave the country after being expelled. Meanwhile, Bahrain has also banned all of its citizens from visiting or residing in Qatar after the severance of ties.


Additionally, Bahrain has has closed both air and sea borders with Qatar.

Saudi Arabia then confirmed the same - cutting ties and shutting down all sea, airspace, and land crossings with Qatar as well as dissolving Qatar's role in the Saudi-led coalition fighting against Yemen. Emirates, Etihad, Saudia, Gulf Air, and Egypt Air are no longer allowed to fly to Qatar and Saudi Arabia is providinhg facilities, services to Qatari pilgrims

Egypt then followed, confirming it was cutting diplomatic ties with

Then UAE confirmed it would cut ties, shut down all sky, water, and land crossings, and expel all Qataris within 48 hours.

The Maldives also just cut diplomatic ties with Qatar.

All of this happens within 24 hours of Iran calling out 'The West' for ignoring the real sponsors of terrorism around the world and UK's Labor party leader outright name-shaming Sauid Arabia's funding of terrorism.

Qatari officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

As a reminder, documents obtained by Middle East Eye show strategic alliance includes pledge by Ankara to protect Gulf state from external threats...

In December 2015, Turkey announced, to the surprise of many, that it planned to establish a military base in Qatar. Behind the scenes, the agreement was about forming a major strategic alliance.

After a 100-year hiatus, Turkey is militarily back in the Gulf and ramping up its presence overseas. In January, Ankara announced that it would also establish a military base in Somalia.

Specific details about the Qatar agreement, which Turkey described as an alliance in the face of "common enemies", remain scant, but Middle East Eye has acquired copies of the agreements, as well as further details, which include a secret pledge by Ankara to protect Qatar from external threats.




Did Qatar just get scapegoated in the 'war on terror'? One thing seems clear, support for a Syrian gas pipeline will be dwindling and with it the need for a Syrian war.



Notably, this raises further doubts about OPEC's stability. As Bloomberg notes, while Middle East ructions have historically added risk premia to oil prices, discord here could theoretically put downward pressure on prices as OPEC members struggle to maintain unity and compliance on production cuts.


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: We now have independent confirmation from different reliable information sources to KNOW that this recent DEVELOPMENT is MAJOR and MUST be monitored closely since it has greatly complicated everything in the Middle East as WE see it happening now.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2017/0...t-markets.html

TUESDAY, JUNE 06, 2017
What Do We Truly Know About Markets?
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Let's do a little exercise.

Here's a question. Please write down your answer to the question before reading on:
WHAT DO YOU KNOW WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE ABOUT TRADING/INVESTING THAT DOESN'T REQUIRE ANY STATISTICAL SUPPORT?

Knowledge is what has statistical support; wisdom is what we know to be true from hard-earned life experience. What do you truly know about markets and trading? What wisdom do you draw upon in your best trading and investing?

Once you've written out your answer, please compare your wisdom with the answers offered by a number of thoughtful market participants. This blog post from Abnormal Returns has plenty of insight to inform our trading.

Good trading is grounded in knowledge; great trading reflects wisdom. The best market lessons are also phenomenal life lessons. Your best trading will result from acting on your greatest wisdom.
Further Reading: Life Lessons From The Trading Trenches
Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 3:13 PM




“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.” ― William Shakespeare, As You Like It


This week is Blogger Wisdom week on Abnormal Returns. As we have done in previous years we asked an esteemed group of independent finance bloggers a series of (hopefully) provocative questions. Answers are not edited and the author’s name, blog name and Twitter handles follow. We hope you enjoy these posts as much as we do putting them together.


Question: What do you know with a high degree of confidence about investing that does not require any statistical support?(Answers in no particular order.)


Wayne Lloyd, Dynamic Hedge, @dynamichedge:
Leverage can be deadly. It doesn’t take a statistician to know that if you bet more than you have, you are dramatically increasing your risk. It’s great on the way up, though!


Barry Ritholtz, Big Picture, @ritholtz, Masters in Business podcast:
I know how little I know: I am aware of the limitations of what I truly know for sure; that I have no idea what the market will do next year or the year after; what sectors are going to outperform, what stocks will still be here in a decade or two; what the Fed will do, where the Dow will be, what GDP looks like. Once we acknowledge what we do and don’t know, it makes the task before us easier, as we are not relying on a false set of premises to build our investments and portfolios upon.


Tom Brakke, the research puzzle, @researchpuzzler:
Performance distorts decision making. Almost always and almost everywhere. Very few investors, including professionals, can avoid the tug of historical numbers when making decisions. (Some are more swayed by long-term numbers and others by what’s happened recently.) The evidence backs up that belief, but you don’t need it to know it’s the way of the world; you can easily observe it.


David Merkel, The Aleph Blog, @alephblog:
We know that stocks represent shares in the ownership of businesses and bonds and loans are promises to pay. If we buy sound investments and hold them, we will make money in the long run at minimum (absent war on your home soil, famine, plague, socialism, etc.)


David Shvartsman, Finance Trends, @financetrends, newsletter:
Top traders and investors work to find strategies that suit their personalities (so they can stick with it) and produce net profits over time. Then there is risk management, which keeps you in the game. Whether you are a chart-based swing trader or a long-term value investor, you must find some way to limit your losses or define your “margin of safety” in order to preserve your capital and secure your ability to take advantage of future opportunities. As the popular Market Wizards book series suggests, there are many paths to trading and investing success. While investing styles can vary wildly, a common thread among the top investors interviewed is a respect for the markets and a defined process for controlling risk.



Ben Carlson, A Wealth of Common Sense, @awealthofcs, author of Organizational Alpha: How to Add Value in Institutional Asset Management:
No matter what anyone tells you, successful investing is hard. No stance in the financial markets is ever easy and no strategy will ever give you 100% confidence in your ability to achieve your financial goals. You can make things simpler or more complex but no matter what you do it’s going to be hard. There are far too many psychological landmines to allow this game to ever be easy.


[Membership] An annual membership helps support Abnormal Returns and gives you access to exclusive e-mails and perks.


Tobias Carlisle, The Acquirer’s Multiple, @greenbackd, co-author of Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Investors:
Value investing works. Buying something for less than it’s worth increases the value of the buyer’s holdings. I don’t need a backtest to know it makes sense.


Andrew Miller, Miller Financial, @millerak42 , guest blog at blog.alphaarchitect.com:
Investors should minimize or optimize taxes and fees.


Roger Nusbaum, Random Roger, @randomroger:
The stock market goes up most of the time and every so often it goes down a lot and scares the hell out of a lot of people because it is somehow “different” than other past declines. The circumstances for the declines are different but not the market process for handling declines. It goes down a lot, people panic then it stops going down, often for no apparent reason and then it starts to go back up to a new high. The only variable is how long it will take to make that new high. An advisor or investor may or may not be able to add alpha along the way but the simple act of remembering there is nothing new about the market going down a lot along with maintaining a suitable asset allocation and adequate savings rate should be sufficient provided that panic is not succumbed to.


Jonathan Clements, Humble Dollar, @clementsmoney, author of How to Think About Money:
Thanks to investment costs, investors must collectively lag behind the market–and, thanks to skewness, the number who outperform will be far fewer than a normal distribution curve would suggest.


Phil Huber, bps and pieces, @bpsandpieces:
Hindsight is a hell of a drug.


Jesse Felder, The Felder Report, @jessefelder:
Markets and economies move in cycles characterized by mean reversion.


[E-mail] Subscribe to our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all of our posts.


James Osborne, Bason Asset Management, @basonasset:
That most decisions get made with a high degree of confidence without having any statistical support.


Andrew Thrasher, Andrew Thrasher, @andrewthrasher, 2017 Charles H. Dow Award Winner:
The price of a stock is a result of its supply and demand.



Charles Sizemore, Charles Sizemore, @charlessizemore:
Overweighting a position, no matter how good it looks, is almost always a bad idea. For every Warren Buffett that massively overweights a position like Coca-Cola that ends up doing well, there are many more Bill Ackmans that massively overweight a Valeant Pharmaceuticals and have it blow up in their face.


Morgan Housel, Collaborative Fund, @morganhousel:
That relative values are confusing. That compounding is not intuitive. That many people are here for the game more than the outcome. That simple things are too easy for smart people to take seriously. That Michael Batnick is a good writer.


Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism, @cullenroche:
I know, with increasing certainty, that I know less than I think I do.



Michael Kitces, Nerd’s Eye View, @michaelkitces:
The ongoing march of market efficiency will always be limited by the ability of human beings to behave rationally. Which means that even as most forms of available alpha seem to be shrinking, some level of sustainable alpha – “behavioral” alpha – will remain.

In essence, we can think of market inefficiencies as providing two different types of alpha: informational alpha, available to use who can rationally access and use available information better than peers, but prone to being arbitraged away; and behavioral alpha, available to those who can behave better than peers, and capture the return opportunities created by the behavioral mistakes of others, and more likely to sustain (as long as our brains are wired the way they are). Of course, the caveat is that the behavioral biases that create behavioral alpha opportunities are the same biases that make it hard for any particular investor to capture behavioral alpha in the first place!


Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D., Alpha Architect, @alphaarchitect, co-author of Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner’s Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System:
Better to be lucky than good.


Ivaylo Ivanov, Market Wisdom and Ivanhoff, @ivanhoff:
Big corrections lead to great buying opportunities. Trends last a lot longer than most expect because different people buy for different reasons and at different stages of a trend. All trends need sceptics; otherwise, there won’t be anyone left to buy. Corrections are relatively rare, but they are fast and furious and most people don’t act the way they think they will act during them.


Robert Seawright, Above the Market, @rpseawright:
I know a lot less than I assume I do.


Jake, EconomPic Data, @econompic:
That investors love stories aligned with their prior views and will look for flaws with any new information that runs counter to these views.


Michael Martin, MartinKronicle, The Michael Martin Show, @martinkronicle:
As an investor and trader it’s clear that market participants will continue to act emotionally around money.Ego can be a much more powerful emotional force than fear or greed. People who are very well educated don’t like being wrong. They are not used to it. Designations and degrees are “perceived as success” around attaining knowledge, but that is not the same as being able to have tactical mastery. Having a big ego around intelligence can keep individuals tied to the whipping post for a lot longer than they have to be. Rule: Your first loss is your best loss. Get out. Learn from your mistakes. You can always get back in at a better time.




Peter Lazaroff, Peter Lazaroff, @peterlazaroff:
You have no control over the market. The implication is that you should spend way less time thinking about the market and worrying about short-term moves.



Robin Powell, The Evidence-Based Investor, @robinjpowell:
Everyone who expresses an opinion about it is in some way conflicted. It’s usually to do with our business model or some other financial incentive; it’s sometimes about personal or professional pride, or trying to justify silly things we’ve said or done in the past. Always ask, Who’s saying this and Why?



Jeffrey Miller, A Dash of Insight, @dashofinsight:
Whatever proposition you make or conclusion you reach can be supported by a carefully-selected chart, some ancient investing wisdom, or advice from a “billionaire fund manager or investor”.


Jeff Carter, Points and Figures, @pointsnfigures:
Markets will take you to the point of emotional breakage. You will get out. Then it will go the way you wanted it to go.



Brett Steenbarger, TraderFeed, @steenbab, author of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes:
Diversification works. If you can harvest returns from relatively uncorrelated strategies with positive expected value, your return stream will be smoother and more reliable than if you go big on any particular strategy. The way to get big is to get broad. Investors have finite Sharpe ratios and those Sharpes have some degree of variability. Many of the psychological problems that occur among investors and traders are the result of amping up strategies and being unable to tolerate the drawdowns when those strategies hit expectable drawdowns.



Thanks to everyone for their time and effort. Don’t forget to check out Tuesday’s Blogger Wisdom question on what we would learn if we had 1000 years of good financial data.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Of all the GREAT QUOTES THE ONE THAT BEST APPLIES TO MY FOREX TRADING STYLE IS THIS ONE.

"Michael Martin, MartinKronicle, The Michael Martin Show, @martinkronicle:
As an investor and trader it’s clear that market participants will continue to act emotionally around money.Ego can be a much more powerful emotional force than fear or greed. People who are very well educated don’t like being wrong. They are not used to it. Designations and degrees are “perceived as success” around attaining knowledge, but that is not the same as being able to have tactical mastery. Having a big ego around intelligence can keep individuals tied to the whipping post for a lot longer than they have to be. Rule: Your first loss is your best loss. Get out. Learn from your mistakes. You can always get back in at a better time."

Michael Martin, MartinKronicle, The Michael Martin Show, @martinkronicle:

As an investor and trader it’s clear that market participants will continue to act emotionally around money.

Ego can be a much more powerful emotional force than fear or greed.

People who are very well educated don’t like being wrong. They are not used to it.

Designations and degrees are “perceived as success” around attaining knowledge, but that is not the same as being able to have tactical mastery.

Having a big ego around intelligence can keep individuals tied to the whipping post for a lot longer than they have to be.

Rule: Your first loss is your best loss. Get out. Learn from your mistakes. You can always get back in at a better time.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...ur-way-of-life

If We Dont Fight For It, The Liberal World Order Is Going To Kill Our Way Of Life


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By Michael Snyder, on June 6th, 2017



http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...in-460x306.jpgThere comes a time when it becomes necessary to draw a line in the sand. When the early settlers came to America, they were desperate to find a place where they could live in freedom. And our Founding Fathers worked very hard to draft a Constitution that would guarantee that future generations of Americans would live in a nation where the freedom and liberty of the people were maximized.

Unfortunately, the way of life that our founders sought to establish is slowly being killed off by the progressive agenda of the Liberal World Order. Just about every single element of their progressive agenda is diametrically opposed to the values and the principles that this country was founded upon. And if they ultimately get everything that they want, our way of life will be eradicated for good.


The term Liberal World Order is a phrase that is starting to be used quite frequently by the establishment. It was used by the Washington Post to describe Barack Obamas final speech to the United Nations, and Vice-President Joe Biden used it during his speech at the World Economic Forum in January.


But of course it is a term that doesnt just apply to Democrats. Many establishment Republicans also believe in the progressive agenda of the Liberal World Order, and that is why before Trump was elected nothing ever seemed to change very much in Washington no matter who was in power.


Sadly, the same thing is true all over the western world. The Liberal World Order dominates most of the major political parties in just about every industrialized nation, and they are very much accustomed to getting their way. That is one of the reasons why they hate Donald Trump with such a passion, because he is someone that they cannot fully control.


At this point, the Liberal World Order has almost complete control of our culture. In addition to dominating the political system, they also have a stranglehold on the media, on the entertainment world, on most large corporations, on our system of public education, and even on many of our largest religious institutions.


In the end, their goal is not to just win elections. I recently wrote that liberals hate anyone that disagrees with them, and even though they claim to be tolerant the truth is that they are some of the most intolerant people on the face of the planet. When Kathy Griffin held up a bloody mock decapitated head of Donald Trump, it really was a picture of what they want to do to our entire way of life.

They literally want to eradicate our worldview, and laws are slowly being put in place all over the western world that are moving us in that direction.


For the true believers in the Liberal World Order, government is a weapon to be used to achieve societal dominance. That is why so many of them are drawn to law school. I have often referred to law school as seminary for liberals, because that is essentially what it is.


Our legal system is absolutely infested with radical leftists from the top to the bottom, and that makes it a perfect tool for the left to advance their agenda. Whether it is abortion, gay marriage or any other issue, the left often finds that the easiest way to achieve their goals is by going through the court system.


True believers in the Liberal World Order also tend to believe that government is the answer to just about every problem. So central governments all over the western world have just gotten bigger and bigger and bigger.


But every time government gets bigger, we lose more freedom and liberty.

If you will think about this you will see that I am right. Today, there are hundreds of thousands of statutes, rules and regulations on the federal level. If you throw in all of the statutes, rules and regulations on the state and local levels as well, that brings the total into the millions.


Every law restricts freedom and liberty in some way. Of course in some cases this is a very good thing. For example, we dont want the freedom to go around randomly murdering one another. But we certainly do not need millions of laws.


We are supposed to be the land of the free, but most Americans seem to have forgotten what that really means. If people want the government to tell them what to do every moment of every day, they can move to Europe. Our founders guaranteed us a nation where liberty and freedom would be maximized, and the Liberal World Order has stolen this from us.


And of course having an enormous government is very expensive, and so we get to pay very heavily for the privilege of being oppressed. I talk a lot about the income tax because that is one of my pet peeves, but that is only one of the taxes they hit us with.

In a previous article I listed 97 different taxes that Americans pay each year, and when everything is all said and done there are some Americans that end up handing over more than half of what they earn to various governmental entities.


But our leaders dont use the term socialism to describe what is being done to us, because the American people arent ready to accept that reality quite yet.


Unfortunately, the control freaks that dominate our government always want more. Our progressive politicians always seem to have another new tax up their sleeves, and earlier this year top Democrats in Congress proposed yet another payroll tax that would be taken directly out of our paychecks

The Democrats plan, reintroduced in February by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D, N.Y.) and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D, Colo.), is The FAMILY Act, which would create a national fund to provide workers with two thirds of their income for up to 12 weeks, no matter where they live or work. The Democrats proposal would be funded by employee and employer payroll contributions, averaging less than $1.50 per week for a typical worker.

One of the primary reasons why my wife and I originally moved up to north Idaho was because we wanted to find a place where we could live free without someone constantly telling us what to do. But we have come to realize that eventually the Liberal World Order is just going to take over everything if we dont fight back. If the America that so many in previous generations fought and died to defend is going to survive, we must take action now.

So I am calling on every man, woman and child that can hear me to engage in a new American revolution. This isnt a revolution with guns and bullets, but rather a non-violent cultural revolution that will be fought with votes, pens and keyboards.


We need to clearly communicate a vision for the future of America that is based upon the values and the principles that this nation was founded upon. Those values and principles once made us the greatest nation on the entire planet, and they can do it again.


We also need to wrestle as much political power away from the Liberal World Order as we possibly can. That means contesting Democrats and establishment Republicans on the federal, state and local levels. Even capturing a seat on your local school board can make a tremendous difference, and so I am encouraging as many people as possible to become politically active.


If we do not take a stand now, eventually there wont be anywhere left for freedom-loving Americans and their families to go.

Just like with the original American revolution, there are no guarantees that we will win. At the time, very few could have imagined that the great British empire could have been defeated by a ragtag group of rebels, but it happened. And the Liberal World Order is most definitely a formidable foe, and it will not be taken down easily.


All that it takes for evil to triumph is for good men and women to do nothing.


So let us be strong and courageous, and let us rise up and fight for the future of our nation.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...Government.jpg



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https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...a/#more-151987

The Scripting of the New World Order Narrative

Dismantling the Post-World War Two International Order

June 5, 2017

Philosophy of Metrics

While watching CNN this morning an interesting segment focused on how Trump is dismantling the international order which has existed since the end of the last world war. Fareed Zakaria used America’s exit from the non-binding Paris Climate Agreement as the springboard for further discussion around how Trump is shifting the global position of the United States. This concept of course is old news for POM readers, as we have been discussing the transformation of the international governance framework since Dec 31, 2013.


Two years ago when Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the office of President I presented the idea that his purpose was to sell the multilateral framework to the American people and realign Anglo-American economic and governance policies with those of the international banking interests.


Ever since the first Gulf War I have been hooked on CNN. Over the years my awareness and understanding of the information-engineering aspect of its broadcasts became a filter through which I would analyze each broadcast and media trend. The overabundance of air time which CNN gave Trump throughout the election, and in fact still do, is not an accident.

Standing back and studying the whole forest we can begin to see that Trump has been casted in the role of bad cop for one demographic while serving as the good cop for another. This diametric is a powerful weapon which can control and manipulate both public opinion and public expectation.


The end of World War Two was the previous turning point for the international banking interests. It was when the Bretton Woods Monetary Conference designed the economic and banking system for the rest of the century. The creation of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank were directly related to this agreement, but also served as seeds for a future transformation.


Zakaria’s reference to the post-war dismantling has everything to do with the reserve role given to the US dollar under Bretton Woods. The dominance of the USD for eight decades has contributed to the evolution of economic and governance policies which served as an extension of the political, industrial and academic interests of the Anglo-American establishment.


These interests built wealth and organizations around the role of the USD which acted as self-serving vehicles and moved separate from the broader international banking interests. This was allowed to continue because it served a purpose and American hegemonic strength was kept in check through a large contingent of geopolitical and economic strategies.


This American world and its infrastructure became the dominant weapons used against nations and regions which did not evolve along the lines demanded by the international banking interests. NATO, the United Nations, Bilderberg, the IMF, World Bank, and a host of other think tanks and non-governmental organizations all represent this post war international order.


Now that the multilateral monetary and governance frameworks have been agreed upon by the rest of the world there is no need for the Anglo-American establishment to maintain total control and influence over the world. Those in business, politics and academia resisted the reforms and policy adjustments required to transform the international order into a true multilateral framework. Power and access to endless wealth is never willingly relinquished.


This was expected and planned for, which brings us to Donald Trump and his well scripted platform which began in the 1980’s. Every one of Trump’s talking points are finely engineered to communicate a complex message in simple plain speak. The dismantling of the post war international order is now the mandate of the international banking interests and cannot be stopped.


There have been those within the American establishment who were likely caught by surprise with Trump and his agenda. But it is beginning to appear that there is a common message being communicated with variations over negotiations.


All the while the American people are being sold on something they never would have agreed with if it had been communicated directly. The threat of globalism and a New World Order were so hammered into us through an alternative media which sprung out of nowhere with the emergence of the internet. This is the same alternative media which is now supporting Trump and is beginning to grow with the populist wave of anti-globalism.


But these alternative media personalities are doing nothing to cover the actual transformation of the international order and the true purpose of the Trump agenda. The thesis presented here on POM has been proven accurate for so long now, and on so many points, that it is illogical that the large alternative media have not picked up on the themes.


When I saw the headline on CNN this morning I looked over at Marianne and said “there is another verification of everything I have been writing for four years”. But the message isn’t getting out. Both the mainstream media and alternative media do not discuss this intentional and planned dismantling of the international order which has built up on the back of the USD.


As far as I can tell the alternative media is complicit in the engineering and spread of the Trump narrative. The purpose of the alternative media has been to build up the cognitive dissonance and Hegelian Dialectic within the Western mind of the disorganized masses. It is my conclusion that many of these websites and personalities are manufactured and maintained through intelligence agencies and other covert groups which operate outside the confines of national interests. The scripting of the New World Order narrative and the threat to America are too aligned with the unfolding dismantling and transformation of the international framework to be a coincidence.


The POM thesis will continue to be the most accurate analysis available but will remain on the margins of alternative media for the simple fact that the site is owned and operated by just me. There is no involvement with agencies, think tanks, or other groups and organizations which support the narrative described above. It is just me reading, researching, and writing as a sideline to my career in mining. There are no advertisers on the site who I have to worry about offending. There is only the small army of POM subscribers and members who I am committed to providing accurate and thoughtful information.


Fellow Canadian writer and researcher Henry Makow recently posted an article on his site which discussed the role of the Canadian Securities Intelligence Service in the creation of the neo-Nazi Heritage Front. Operation Governor took place between 1988 and 1994 and instigated racists acts across the nation. These tactics evolved with the internet and provided such agencies with a whole new battlefield from where they could orchestrate cultural and socioeconomic engineering. To think that such agencies and organizations haven’t created the alternative media and its host of personalities would be a miscalculation.


Logic follows that the alternative media (who pumped the New World Order threat narrative for years) are supporting Trump, and Trump in turn represents the scripting of the international banking interests. The connection flows from one to the other with relative ease but is completely ignored by the large presence and influence of both the mainstream and alternative media. Both serve opposing sides to the dialectic engineering. Within the middle ground between both the dismantling continues. – JC

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2311.htm

June 7, 2017
CIA “Deep State” Mastermind Behind War To Destroy President Trump Revealed


By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that one of the top “masterminds” engineering the “Deep State” war to destroy President Donald Trump is a long known Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) undercover assassin named Charles McCarry—who though currently lauded as being “the dean of American spy writers”, aided his son, Nathan McCarry, in establishing a private US intelligence company known as Pluribus International Corporation—one of whose analyst/interpreters, named Reality Leigh Winner, was arrested for espionage by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) this past week after her returning from Qatar. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

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“Deep State” mastermind Charles McCarry (aka “Black Hammer”)

According to this report, Charles McCarry’s Committee for State Security (KGB) codename was “Black Hammer” due to his using a hammer during his “kill operations” against Soviet agents operating within Eastern Europe during the early years of the Cold War—and that McCarry became a CIA assassin in after his quitting being a speech writer for President Dwight Eisenhower in the early 1950’s.


Though claiming to leave the CIA in 1967, this report continues, Charles McCarry, instead, became an integral part of the “Deep State” war against President Richard Nixon to unseat him from power—and who, since 1971 with his first novel “The Miernik Dossier”, has detailed his “Deep State” career and actions through his fictional character named “Paul Christopher”.


While purporting himself as being a writer of fiction, this report notes, Charles McCarry has spent the greater part of the past 40 years operating within the “Deep State”—and whose greatest accomplishment to date was using his son Nathan McCarry as the “figurehead” to establish a private spying company named Pluribus International Corporation, whose operations span the globe and lie at the very center of the vast US intelligence community.

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Pluribus International Corporation, this report explains, provides covert language and intelligence analysis support to not only the US government, but other nations too—and in its latest reporting said it earned over $140 million, while still calling itself a “small business”.

Most bizarrely to note about Pluribus International Corporation, this report says, is that the vast majority of its nearly 210 employees are young woman with US military backgrounds—a philosophy explained by Nathan McCarry’s wife, Valerie McCarry, during a 2014 radio interview wherein she described her travails of being a young 20-year-old unwed mother raised in a US military family.

One such young female US military veteran hired by Pluribus International Corporation, this report continues, was a 25-year-old US Air Force veteran named Reality Leigh Winner—who aside from being a rabid anti-Trump “resistance” activist, spoke four languages—English, Farsi, Pashto and Dari.

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“Deep State” operative Reality Leigh Winner

Upon Reality Leigh Winner being hired by Pluribus International Corporation on 13 February 2017, this report details, she was instrumental, due to her language skills, in establishing the “dark web” communications of a “Deep State” group calling itself “Palpatine’s Revenge”—that the SVR had previously identified as having offered a $150 million “kill order contract” on the life of President Trump, with “Palpatine” further being identified by the SVR as being Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who had vowed that Trump “wouldn’t be in power for long”.

With the SVR having continuously kept President Trump informed of this vast “Deep State” plot against him, this report continues, it was only by Trump’s firing of the “nut job” FBI Director James Comey that enabled the FBI to move against these “Palpatine” plotters—and that resulted in Trump-loyal FBI forces obtaining a signed arrest warrant Reality Leigh Winner for espionage on 5 June—followed less than 15 minutes later (at 6 a.m. on 5 June when Winner’s arrest was confirmed) the majority of Arab nations breaking all diplomatic and travel ties to Qatar—and that has now been joined by Jordan and the Philippines too.

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As the Charles McCarry-Nathan McCarry-Pluribus International Corporation-Qatar “Palpatine’s Revenge” “Deep State” network is in the process of being destroyed, this report says, President Trump was right to suggest just hours ago that the “beginning of the end of terrorism” is near—and if so, would enable the FBI to investigate the greatest crime ever committed against the American people.

Stunningly, this report notes, the American people have been kept from knowing by their mainstream propaganda media about the largest leak of intelligence data in that nation’s history that involves more than 600 million classified documents on 47 hard drives taken from the National Security Agency and the CIA proving that the Obama regime spied on over 20 million US citizens (including President Trump) in violation of all laws—and due to former FBI Director Comey failing to investigate this massive crime, has sent such fear into the US Congress, the US intelligence communities authorization to spy on anyone is now in danger of being revoked.

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This report concludes by grimly noting that even though it now appears President Trump is gaining on his “Deep State” adversaries who desperately want a war, Russia’s anti-missile umbrella defense against a US nuclear first strike needs to be accelerated and the massive Russia-China war games against the Americans must, also, proceed—with both occurring as President Putin warns: “I don’t think anyone would survive such a conflict.”


Critical Note: As previously written exhaustively about by Sister Ciara in her letter “Deep State” In Disarray As Trump’s “Fathomless Federation” Gains Ground, President Trump has just nominated Christopher Wray to be the next FBI Director and join his “Fathomless Federation” of global law firm behemoths battling against the “Deep State”—and who comes from the 129-year-old global law firm King & Spalding LLP that Trump has previously tapped to join this historic war.

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Other reports in this series include:
Arab Nations Break Ties With Qatar After $150 Million Contract Offered To Kill President Trump
FBI Nabs Hillary Clinton “Lost” Emails In Surprise Raid On Huma Abedin Home
Obama’s CIA Director Michael Hayden Said Ready To Flee To Ireland As FBI Closes In
Seth Rich “Trap” Fallen Into By FBI Directory Comey Warned Ready To Be Sprung
Most Secret Grand Jury In American History Paralyzes Washington With Fear
US Mainstream Media Unwittingly Plunges Into “Trump Trap”—Learns “Art Of War” Is Real
“Deep State” War Against President Trump Takes Bizarre Turn Down China Road
FBI Joins Trump’s “Deep State” Counterattack To Horror Of “Fake News” Media
Young Russian Offered $15 Million And US Citizenship In “Deep State” Plot Against Trump
US Federal Prison Ordered By Trump To Prepare For 23 “High Security Political Defendants”
Dark Web “Kill Order Contract” On President Donald Trump Issued For $150 Million


June 7, 2017 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked back to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.


[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human beings right to know the truth. Due to our missions conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]


[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]


[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]


“Deep State” In Disarray As Trump’s “Fathomless Federation” Gains Ground
Americans Now Outlawed From Knowing The Laws They Live Under

Return To Main Page

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/07/nex...d-is-fretting/


Next Asset Bubble Cracks: It’s so Big even the Fed is Fretting
by Wolf Richter • Jun 7, 2017 •

Commercial Real Estate’s boom-and-bust cycle heads south.
Commercial real estate’s eight-year boom reached such breath-taking levels that even the Fed has been pointing it out as one of the reasons for tightening monetary policy. The Fed is worried because of the size of the sector, its leverage, and what it did to the banks during the Financial Crisis. And now commercial real estate prices are heading south once again.

Green Street’s Commercial Property Price Index, which tracks the value of property owned by real-estate investment trusts, fell 0.4% in May to the lowest level since May 2016:
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This is not happening because there is some sort of crisis. And this is not a crash, as during the Financial Crisis, when the spigot was suddenly turned off and liquidity disappeared overnight. Instead it’s a slow process that is happening despite super-low long-term interest rates, enormous liquidity in the markets, and super-easy financial conditions powered by yield-chasing risk-blind investors.



One of the primary drivers of the decline are the values of retail malls that have been getting hit by store closings and bankruptcies of their tenants as brick-and-mortar retail is melting down. So the sub-index for malls fell 2.8% in May and 5% for the past three months, and is down year-over-year. Other weak areas are apartment buildings. But industrial space – such as warehousing, one of the beneficiaries of the shift to online retail – remains strong.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, one of the earliest advocates of unwinding QE, started warning about the CRE bubble last year. A couple of months ago, he gave a presentation on what CRE could do to “financial stability,” with some stunning charts.

The “significant decline in collateral values” of both commercial and residential real estate was “the root cause of the financial crisis,” he said. Currently, financial institutions hold $3.8 trillion of CRE loans:

1. Banks: $2.02 trillion or 53% of total
2. Life insurers: $460 billion or 12% of total
3. Government Sponsored Enterprises (such as Fanny Mae) and Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities: $521 billion or 14% of total
4. Non-Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities: $544 billion or 14% of total.

In terms of the banks, it’s the smaller banks (less than $50 billion in assets) that are on the hook: they hold $1.2 trillion of CRE loans. Larger banks (over $50 billion in assets) hold $767 billion. In other words, exposure to a CRE downturn is going to hit numerous smaller banks least prepared to deal with it. And that’s what the Fed is worried about.

Industry professionals have been expecting the downturn for a while. CRE runs in big cycles of magnificent booms and terrible busts. After about six or seven years of boom, everyone starts looking for signs of the next bust. And these signs are starting to pile up.

This shows up in commercial real estate transactions. Over the first four months in 2017, CRE transactions dropped 17% year-over-year, to $121 billion and have plunged 30% from the same period in 2015, according to Real Capital Analytics.

“Those participants focused on the priciest deals are facing the biggest challenges in the current market,” writes Jim Costello in the report. Large transactions – those over $500 million – experienced the sharpest decline:
The Q1 2017 deal volume for these priciest deals was down 44% from peak values. The deals priced from $100 million to $500 million had the next sharpest decline, down 10% from peak values. All deals in the smaller ranges have activity that is essentially unchanged.

But he had some soothing words, ironically by comparing the current situation to the Financial Crisis:
Still, conditions are still far more favorable for the investors active in the $500 million-and-greater space in the current market than in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Activity for the priciest deals fell from a 4-quarter trailing peak of $231 billion in Q4 2007 to only $1.7 billion by Q3 2009. So, in the current market, it is not like the past where the big game disappeared, there are simply fewer mastodons out and about.

So this is just an early stage in a drawn-out painful down cycle of CRE that will maul loan-by-loan the smaller banks, and it will hit REITs and crush mall REITs, and eventually it will rake holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities over the coals, but unless something big and unexpected happens very suddenly and turns this into a “crisis,” this downturn – unlike the last one – will take its time.

The credit cycle has already turned sour, and the Debt Slaves are beginning to buckle under their loads. Read… Great Debt Unwind: Bankruptcies by Consumers and Businesses Jump

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

UK General Election Preview: All You Need To Know
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by Tyler Durden
Jun 7, 2017 3:03 PM



All you need to know about tomorrow's general election in the UK, broken down into several parts.
From RanSquawk, Deutsche Bank, Lloyds, and WSJ


Why has a Snap Election been called?
On April 18th PM Theresa May surprised many by calling for a snap election for June 8th . May stated that her reason in doing so was to “strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations”. While at the time that the snap election had being called, the Conservative party had a commanding 20ppt lead in the opinion polls, an opportunity that may not occur again. As such, a result of this size would make it harder for parliament to overthrow any deal May returns with from Brussels, potentially leading to a cleaner Brexit with the risk of a ‘no deal’ lower.


Polling Intentions
UK pollsters were originally predicting a landslide for PM May backin April, subsequently leading many to believe that the risk surrounding the election is relatively low, with the Conservative party seen increasing their current majority by some 75-125 seats. However, a notable shift in the polls has been observed since the release of both the Conservatives and Labour parties’ manifestos, moving in favour of the latter. In turn, this has resulted in some modest pullback from 2017 highs in recent weeks and somewhat elevating the risk regarding the election with some polls narrowing the Conservatives lead to as low as 4ppts. However, given the recent performance of UK pollsters over the 2015 election and EU referendum, they could be taken with a pinch of salt.


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Poll narrowing has increased probability of alternative scenarios
Following the sharp narrowing of the Conservative’s polling lead in recent weeks, the Conservatives’ lead over Labour is now down to 7 points. Comparing this to the historic margins of error seen over previous elections, current polling remains just in excess of the largest polling miss observed since 1992 – a 6.3pp overestimate of the Labour vote share in 2001 – and well in excess of the average polling error over these votes. At the same time, in elections since 1992 the pollsters have consistently underestimated the Conservative’s vote share, by 2.1pp on average. (chart below).
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Given this clear trend for polls to underestimate the Conservatives for various reasons, including issues of poor sampling together with the “shy Tory phenomenon” – pollsters attempt to correct their survey results to account for this dynamic. The risk therefore is that the polls could be over-correcting and therefore giving the Tories an advantage in the polls.

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Scenarios

1. Most Likely: PM May to win a larger majority (50+) which would supposedly allow for a much more stable Brexit process, through consolidating power while also making her less vulnerable to remainers within her own party, while the risk of a ‘no deal’ is lower and in turn lead to a cleaner Brexit. This can also suggest that it would be easier for PM May to agree on a transitional deal with the EU, mitigating some of the negative economic effects, as the next election will not take place until May 2022.
   1. Market Reaction: Initial spike in GBP, however given the rise in the currency since the announcement (1.2520 to 1.2900), this outcome has largely been priced in which could limit any move to the upside, consequently leading to a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact price action. Stocks to watch: Centrica and SSE likely to take a hit if the Conservatives impose a cap on standard variable tariffs. As it stands, GBP/USD o/n vol is to reside around 29/120 pips.

2. Likely: The conservative party win a slim majority (5-10 more seats) or relatively unchanged from current. This could possibly lead to a less stable government, making Theresa May more vulnerable to Brexit hardliners within her own party, subsequently raising the possibility of a ‘no deal’.
   1. Market Reaction: Risks are tilted to the downside and as such, this outcome would likely see GBP met with selling pressure, alongside a fall in UK Gilt yields as some suggest this risks a more confrontational approach to Brexit negotiations, subsequently increasing uncertainty.

3. Unlikely: Labour manage to pull a surprise and form a majority through a coalition with SNP and Lib Dem, this would undoubtedly complicate Brexit negotiations, with analysts at Danske Bank noting that this outcome could potentially lead to Brexit being cancelled altogether or sway to a softer Brexit.
   1. Market Reaction: In an immediate reaction, GBP will likely drop off alongside equity markets as a whirlwind of uncertainty lingers over UK political front. Analysts at PIMCO state focus will shift towards a looser fiscal policy and an untested government. Stocks to look out for would be UK utilities (Severn Trent, Centrica, SSE, National Utilities and United Utilities) which would likely drop off amid Labour’s plans of nationalisation.

* * *
GBP: Complacency
Heading into this general election, the FX markets appeared to be overly complacent with prevailing opinion poll data, suggesting the Conservative Party would return to power with an enhanced majority. Indeed, following the announcement of the election (18 April), Bloomberg calculated implied seat majority for the Conservative Party (Chart 2) rose to 200. This subsequently turned out to be the peak majority figure as calculated by Bloomberg and since the start of May has declined to currently stand at 58 as the opinion polls show a narrowing of the Conservative Party lead. Market complacency on expectations for a sizeable majority was one of the motivating factors behind our view that GBP was likely to face near-term headwinds in the coming months as investors "buy the sizeable majority, sell the fact". Unsurprisingly, a narrowing of the polls has seen GBP TWI fall by over 3%, peak-to-trough in May.

Coalition is the sweet spot for Sterling
Recent opinion polls (Chart of the day) have shaken markets from their lethargy. In FX, demand for GBP puts (proxied by risk reversals) has increased in the short duration tenors, while one-week GBP/USD implied volatility is close to 2017 highs. A Labour-led coalition would ultimately be the most positive scenario for GBP and while a large Conservative victory would be initially bullish, large majorities are no guarantee for strong subsequent performance. A Labour majority/small Conservative majority would both be initially bearish for GBP.
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Cheat Sheet Summary of Market Reactions:

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Process for forming a coalition government
Given the tightening of the polls, there is a risk that no party gains an overall majority. This would lead to a hung parliament scenario with either a minority Conservative government or a Labour-led alliance supported by the Lib Dems and the SNP.

In terms of the process for forming a coalition - the 2010 negotiations lasted five days, beginning with the leaders’ speeches on the Friday morning and concluding with Cameron and Clegg’s joint press statement on the following Wednesday.

The next state opening of Parliament (the Queen’s Speech) is scheduled for the 19th June which would be an important test in the event of a Conservative minority government. If the vote on the Queen’s speech fails to pass then either a new government would attempt to be formed or we move towards fresh elections.

* * *
Seats to watch on election night
In the UK’s first-past-the-post constituency level system, marginal seats are crucial in defining the outcome of elections. In this section we compile the potential swing seats to watch based on different criteria, ranked by the expected timing of their declarations on election night.

Seats to watch 1: 2015 marginal seats (<5% winning margin)
Marginal seats are typically defined based on the size of the majority of the current MP relative to the next best party in the last election. In Figure 6 below we list the most marginal constituencies in Great Britain in the 2015 election – listing the 52 seats in which the margin of the winning party ahead of the runner-up was less than 5%. We list the seats by the time they are expected to declare their result according to the Press Association. This expected timing should be seen as an indication only , with close results increasing the chances of later declarations.

Seats to watch 2: seats vulnerable to Brexit preferences and tactical voting
However, with the Brexit referendum last year and leadership changes across the major national parties since the last election in 2015, it may be that a traditional margin-based seat list is less appropriate than in the past. Limiting our analysis to England & Wales, which contain the majority of marginal seats, we consider which seats currently held by the two largest parties could be vulnerable based on attitudes to Brexit and potential scope for tactical voting.

To make a list of potentially vulnerable Conservative seats we apply two criteria:

1. the seat voted more ‘Remain’ than the UK average (or is estimated to have ) and
2. the Conservative vote share in 2015 was less than the combined share of Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens leaving the seat potentially vulnerable to ‘progressive’ tactical voting

For vulnerable Labour seats we apply the criteria of:

1. the seat being more ‘Leave’ than the UK average
2. the combined vote share of Conservatives and UKIP being greater than that of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens

The gives two lists of 21 and 33 seats respectively presented in Figure 8 and 7. A number of these seats, such as Conservatives’ Croydon Central and Labour’s Halifax appear both on these lists and on the list of marginal seats. However, this combination of criteria also suggests seats such as the Conservatives’ Bristol North West and the Labour seat of Wrexham, the latter expected to come quite early in the night, could be bellwethers as to whether either side is able to take advantage of Brexit sentiment or tactical voting.

Of the two seats that have changed hands since 2015, one makes the list – Copeland, which was lost by Labour to the Conservatives earlier this year. However, Richmond Park – regained by Lib Dems from Tories in late 2016, does not make it, as the 2015 Conservative majority was too large to meet our criteria
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Timing on and following election night
Polls open from 7am and close at 10pm on Thursday.


The publishing of polls is not permitted on the day until after polling closes– at 10pm Ipsos Mori will publish the official exit poll for the BBC and Sky News.

The 10pm exit poll will also give a projection of the ultimate seats won by each party. Historically these forecasts have been very accurate (within 15 seats for the winning party) but this means that if the exit poll projections are tight – i.e. within a 20 seat majority for the Tories - the margin of error means we may not know by 10pm which of the potential outcomes across small Conservative majority, Conservative minority or Labour coalition are the most likely.

The vote count begins at 10pm with the first results typically declared between 11pm and midnight.

The bulk of the declarations begin to flow in from about 2am. By around 4am we should have ~50% of the vote counts declared and a good idea of the result and by 6am close to 90% of the vote count (see chart below).
In the case of a clear majority for the winner, the tradition is for the leader of the winning party to wait for the leader of the losing Party to concede before claiming victory. In 2015, David Cameron accepted victory just before 6 am.
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COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Now on to the vote tomorrow and the Comey Hearings...

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/07/bai...s-spain-italy/






“Bail-In” Era for Europe’s Banking Crisis Begins
by Don Quijones • Jun 7, 2017 •

Many Banco Popular investors wiped out. Taxpayers off the hook. What it means for Italy.
By Don Quijones, Spain & Mexico, editor at WOLF STREET.


Banco Popular, until today Spain’s sixth biggest bank, is no more. Its assets, including a massive portfolio of small-business clients, now belong to Banco Santander, Spain’s biggest bank. The global giant now has 17 million customers in Spain, a country of just 45 million people. The price was €1.


Spain’s Ministry of the Economy revealed that by 3 pm Tuesday, Popular was no longer able to contain the deposit outflow. “It had exhausted all its lines of liquidity, both ordinary and extraordinary.” It had run out of collateral to cover any further lines of emergency liquidity.


This apparently triggered the intervention by the ECB’s Single Resolution Board (SRB), which decided on Tuesday that the bank “was failing or likely to fail” and would have to be wound down, unless a buyer could be found.
Banco Popular’s shareholders, who’d been repeatedly suckered into handing Popular fresh funds in numerous capital expansions, will be wiped out.


Holders of Popular’s riskiest bonds, its AT1 bonds and AT2 bonds, or CoCo bonds, also got wiped out. These bonds had already plunged in recent weeks.


But the bank’s senior bondholders and depositors were spared.

To plug the remaining hole of Popular’s non-performing loans, Santander has said it will set aside €7.9 billion, most of which will be raised in a fresh €7 billion rights issue.


“The decision taken today safeguards the depositors and critical functions of Banco Popular. This shows that the tools given to resolution authorities after the crisis are effective to protect taxpayers’ money from bailing out banks,” said Elke König, chair of the SRB, in the statement.

This marks the first time under the EU’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, passed in January 2016, that shareholders and subordinate bondholders of a European bank have not been bailed out by taxpayers, but where “bailed in.”

And it was the first time that a banking failure was allowed to occur in either Spain or Italy whose resolution didn’t involve taxpayer intervention. Perhaps the Eurozone’s banking authorities are finally growing some teeth. The fact that financial markets received the bail-in of Popluar’s investors calmly tells the ECB that investor bail-ins are the route to go. And so the rule takes hold.



Next Stop: Italy
The ECB’s decision to wind down Popular stands in sharp relief with its decision last week to award Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena a last-minute reprieve, on the grounds that the Italian lender was not insolvent, just liquidity challenged. If it goes ahead, the rescue of MPS will be the largest government intervention in Italy’s financial sector since the nationalization of Italian credit institutions during the Mussolini dictatorship.


MPS’s stay of execution probably had a lot more to do with its size and relative degree of systemic importance (i.e. contagion threat) than the state of its financial health. But Italy is brimming with teetering mid-sized banks that, like Banco Popular, are perfect candidates for a bail-in. Of Italy’s 500 banks, 113 are at risk (with a “Texas Ratio” of 100 or more) and 24 are seriously in trouble (with a TR of over 200%).


They include the two mid-sized Veneto-based banks, Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, which have already received billions of euros in taxpayer assistance but are still desperately trying to avoid a bail-in. To qualify for more public funds they were instructed by the European Commission last week to find an additional €1 billion in private capital.


Then there are banks like Banca Carige, which has been sinking in recent days after the bank’s top investor criticized CEO Guido Bastianini and its chief financial officer for their management. As Bloomberg reports, the lender is seeking to replenish capital through a €450 million stock sale and reduce bad loans to stay afloat.


Contagion Risk
Bail-ins of investors are the way banks should be resolved, but in banking systems that are beset with deep-seated structural problems, such as Italy, there is a risk that bailing in one or two banks could prompt depositors and investors to move funds from weak banks to stronger ones (including banks outside the country), creating liquidity stress and even bank runs.


As we’ve seen in the collapse of Popular, banks can often have existential issues simmering away in the background for months, if not years, but once they’re thrust into the foreground, it can take just days for the confidence of depositors and investors to completely vanish.


In Spain, there are far fewer banks today than they were six years ago, at the onset of the country’s banking crisis. As such, the risk of contagion spreading from one bank to another is limited. By contrast, in Italy, where the problems with the banks, in particular the preponderance of non-performing loans, have been left to fester for years, the contagion risks both within the banking system and beyond it are extremely high. By Don Quijones.
But in Italy, bank bail-outs are hobbled by the government’s giant debt that is already “vulnerable to market turbulence.” Read… Despite the Hype, Italy’s Banking Crisis Metastasizes






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← Next Asset Bubble Cracks: It’s so Big even the Fed is Fretting

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Some more LEAKS in Europe and Their Banks...

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...y-selling-them

Central Banks Now Own Stocks And Bonds Worth Trillions – And They Could Crash The Markets By Selling Them
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...icons/user.gif By Michael Snyder, on June 7th, 2017


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...in-460x258.jpgHave you ever wondered why stocks just seem to keep going up no matter what happens? For years, financial markets have been behaving in ways that seem to defy any rational explanation, but once you understand the role that central banks have been playing everything begins to make sense. In the aftermath of the great financial crisis of 2008, global central banks began to buy stocks, bonds and other financial assets in very large quantities and they haven’t stopped since. In fact, as you will see below, global central banks are on pace to buy 3.6 trillion dollars worth of stocks and bonds this year alone. At this point, the Swiss National Bank owns more publicly-traded shares of Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg does, and the Bank of Japan is now a top-five owner in 81 different large Japanese firms. These global central banks are shamelessly pumping up global stock markets, but because they now have such vast holdings they could also cause a devastating global stock market crash simply by starting to sell off their portfolios.



Over the years I have often been asked about the “plunge protection team”, but the truth is that global central banks are the real “plunge protection team”. If stocks start surging higher on any particular day for seemingly no reason, it is probably the work of a central bank. Because they can inject billions of dollars into the markets whenever they want, that essentially allows them to “play god” and move the markets in any direction that they please.


But of course what they have done is essentially destroy the marketplace. A “free market” for stocks basically no longer exists because of all this central bank manipulation. I really like how Bruce Wilds made this point…
One indication of just how messed up and flawed the global markets have become is reflected in the way central banks across the world are now buying stocks. This has become a part of their response to correcting the forces of past excesses. Their incursion into this bastion of the free markets signals we have entered the era where true price discovery no longer exists. The central banks are often viewed as price-insensitive buyers, so this incestuous influx of money is in some ways the ultimate distortion.

According to Business Insider, global central banks are on pace to purchase an astounding 3.6 trillion dollars in stocks and bonds in 2017.

Overall, the five largest global central banks now collectively have 14.6 trillion dollars in assets on their balance sheets.



You can call this a lot of things, but it certainly isn’t free market capitalism.


The Swiss National Bank is one of the biggest offenders. During just the first three months of this year, it bought 17 billion dollars worth of U.S. stocks, and that brought the overall total that the Swiss National Bank is currently holding to more than $80 billion.


Have you ever wondered why shares of Apple just seem to keep going up and up and up?

Well, the Swiss National Bank bought almost 4 million shares of Apple during the months of January, February and March.

And as I mentioned above, the Swiss National Bank “now owns more publicly-traded shares in Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg”…

Switzerland’s central bank now owns more publicly-traded shares in Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg, part of a mushrooming stock portfolio that is likely to grow yet further.

The tech giant’s founder and CEO has other ways to control his company: Zuckerberg holds most of his stake in a different class of stock. Nevertheless this example illustrates how the Swiss National Bank has become a multi-billion-dollar equity investor due to its campaign to hold down the Swiss franc.

It is now the world’s eighth-biggest public investor, data from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum show.

But as shameless as the Swiss National Bank has been, the Bank of Japan is even worse.

Today, the Nikkei is essentially a giant sham. The Bank of Japan regularly goes in and just starts buying up everything in sight, and according to Bloomberg they are on pace to become the largest shareholder in dozens of the most prominent Japanese corporations by the end of 2017…

Already a top-five owner of 81 companies in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the BOJ is on course to become the No. 1 shareholder in 55 of those firms by the end of next year, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg from the central bank’s exchange-traded fund holdings.

If global central banks have the power to pump up these markets, they also have the power to crash them.
Why would they want to do such a thing?

I can answer that question with just two words…
Donald Trump.


If the Comey angle doesn’t work, the elite could try to destroy Trump by engineering an absolutely devastating stock market crash. Close to half the U.S. population dislikes Trump anyway, and so it would be fairly easy to get them to believe that Trump’s policies have caused a new financial crisis. Of course that would be complete nonsense, but in our society today the truth often doesn’t really matter.


And without a doubt, evidence continues to mount that the real economy is starting to slow down substantially. For example, we just learned that bankruptcies surged once again in May. The following comes from Wolf Richter…
So here we go again. Total US business bankruptcies in May rose 4.7% year-over-year to 3,572 filings, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. That’s up 40% from May 2015 and up 10% from May 2014.

And there’s another concern: Bankruptcy filings are highly seasonal. They peak in tax season – March or April – and then fall off. The decline in April after the peak in March was within that seasonal pattern. Over the past years, filings dropped in May. But not this year.


Without unprecedented intervention by global central banks, financial markets would have crashed long ago.

And if they keep increasing their purchases of stocks and bonds, the central banks may be able to prop things up for a while longer.

Who knows? Perhaps with enough financial engineering they would be able to keep this bubble going for years.

Of course things would start to get really awkward once they eventually owned virtually everything, but I have a feeling that things will never get that far.

I have a feeling that global central banks will eventually find an excuse to start “unwinding their balance sheets”, and I have a feeling that it will be at a time that is highly inconvenient for President Trump.

https://www.forexfactory.com//dsms0m...ing-caring.png


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS:

For myself when I first wake up and come to my computer and start to read my emails from overnight, when I come across information that best represents the reality of the day I read the article and since December 3, 2016 when I started this thread in advance of putting my material on my corporate website I post it here on my thread.

The article that you have just read perhaps is one of the most enlightening ones that I have read not that I was unaware of the information contained in the article however in light of the importance of today for many reasons the article is very much on topic.

This is what the topics are for today.

(1) The decision by the ECB led by Draghi.

(2) The hearings in the USA concerning James Comey and President Donald John Trump.

(3) The election in Great Britain today.

The results will surely whatever they are have major effects on the valuing of all the Asset Classes in the World.

Since all of us that have any interest in what is happening in our world have heard the term "FAKE NEWS"

Yes we surely live in a FAKE WORLD...

Here is the REALITY OF THE WORLD WE ALL LIVE IN TOGETHER.

When in human history have we had Central Banks of the World buy the Stock Market as this article by Michael Snyder explains FACTUALLY. This is NOT FAKE NEWS.

This clearly explains why MARKETS KEEP DEFYING GRAVITY and continue to go up. Is it any wonder that we have for the moment Winners and Losers ?

The answer is no however it actually is not only about Winners and Losers... It is about the FUTURE of your life.

It is about FOCUS. It is about PRIORITY. It is about HONESTY and INTEGRITY. It is about Human Nature.

So.... We who have any interest in what happens today are first waiting for FAKE NEWS from Draghi although what he has been doing in the name of Europe is REALITY and there is nothing FAKE about his actions. However his actions change REALITY for the time being and cause FALSE PERCEPTIONS to form because of the IGNORANCE out there for whatever reason. The 1% are surely NOT IGNORANT as they are the ones that BENEFIT FINANCIALLY.

Now I turn to the Congressional Hearing starting in the USA at 10:00 AM (Montreal Time) that again will have the Eyes of the World on them. Michael Snyder refers to this as the TRUMP FACTOR....

I will share my realistic opinion on the 45TH President of the USA , Donald John Trump.

I had correctly predicted that he would be elected because I could see what was involving since he first entered the election race as one of 17 Republicans candidates. His main ROLE has been as a DISRUPT-ER.

We can all see 100% however there is nothing that he has not changed. When I say CHANGED, I refer to the STATUS QUO...

Now I move ahead to 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time or 10:00 PM in London England when we will have the first indications of who will win the Election in Great Britain today.

My closing COMMENTS will hopefully tie everything together for anyone that takes the time to read my Morning Thoughts and UNDERSTAND THEM.

The world started to change first with BREXIT..... That was the beginning of the 1% starting to lose CONTROL of their agenda and we saw the results which complete the circle with a NEW ELECTION on Thursday, June 8, 2017.
There is the hearings concerning the DISRUPT-ER and he has done that with all of the decisions made with his taking input from his family, friends and enemies of which he has many.

The WORLD IS TODAY UPSIDE DOWN and ALL US HUMANS will be shaken out of our cozy little world whether it is running a family business as one of my friends is doing in South Africa or living their lives perhaps AWARE yet just assuming that it will not affect them.

I will be watching and reacting and trading today until the North American Equity Markets close today at 4:00 PM.


Sincerely submitted Benjaminis has learned so much about himself and others and the world by faithfully posting on my thread since December 3, 2016 HOPEFULLY helping TEACH some of you how to improve your Forex Trading and much more importantly your lives.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

"Triple Threat Thursday" Starts Off With A Whimper: Markets On Edge Ahead Of Key Event Risks
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Jun 8, 2017 6:41 AM



So far "Triple Threat Thursday" has been a dud. In the day with the greatest concentration of market-moving risk events so far in 2017, market action - at least for the time being - has been a whimper, with European stocks and US futures modestly higher ahead of the ECB’s rate decision and Comey's testimony (which has now been fully publicized, removing much of the risk), as the U.K. voting is underway. Asian stocks fell led by a decline in Japan as the yen first strengthened, only to tumble later in the session. The Dollar is little changed while oil recovered from the steepest decline in more than a year Wednesday, while U.K. government bonds led the region’s debt lower as the nation chooses its next government a general election.


A quick summary of events courtesy of the always whimsical Kit Juckes from SocGen:

The ECB is edging towards the exit from extraordinary policies, the BOJ is recalibrating its exit communication strategy, whatever that means, the US is preparing for the start of the Comey show, and the UK is going to the polls, or the dogs, or both. In the meantime, markets are pretty quiet, with bond yields globally recovering a bit, and equity market edging higher with the exception of the Nikkei.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0withces_0.jpg
Starting in Asia, JGBs sold off aggressively and the curve bear steepened in reaction to reports of the BOJ considering future exit communications, pressuring USTs in early European trade. As USD/JPY reversed the entire knee-jerk move lower, core fixed income weakened further and the USD ground higher across G-10. European equity markets opened higher led by financials and basic resources sectors. The PBOC injected net 60 billion yuan of liquidity, weakening the CNY fixing for first time in seven days while China watchers exhaled after stronger than expected Chinese trade data gave support to industrial metals.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._china11_0.jpg


European stocks rose while U.S. futures edged higher before today's event trifecta. Copper led industrial metals higher as data showed an acceleration in Chinese exports while oil recouped a small portion of the more than 5 percent plunge triggered by a report showing a rise in U.S. crude stockpiles. Stock markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris were flat to 0.2% higher helped by reports of another bank rescue, this time in Italy, and energy shares as oil steadied after 5 percent drop the previous day. Italy's bonds also cheered the banking sector talk and the pound and the euro were at $1.2937 and $1.1233 respectively, the former near a two-week high and the latter just off a seven-month high.


The big FX story of the session so far was the USDJPY which took a beating early in the session after the market was spooked by a Bloomberg article stating that the BoJ is shifting its stance on its exit strategy. The article reported that the BoJ no longer intends to reiterate that “to discuss the exit strategy is premature” and that policymakers will focus on more effective communication with the markets. “The BoJ is re-calibrating its communications to acknowledge that it is thinking about how to handle a future exit from monetary stimulus, according to people with knowledge of discussions at the central bank." The strength lasted briefly though, and after sliding as low at 109.40, the USDJPY has since surged back over 110 and was trading at 110.10 last, as this particular trial balloon was digested and found severely lacking.


In economic data, Japan disappointed "bigly" earlier in the session when its Q1 GDP was revised to just 1.0% annualized, missing the 2.4% expected. The Japanese government's second estimate for Jan-Mar (1Q) 2017 real GDP came in at +1.0% qoq annualized, a sharp downward revision from +2.2% in the preliminary reading. However, this was mainly attributable to inventory, and the Japanese economy still looks to be trending firmly once this volatile factor is stripped out.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...an%20gdp_0.png

This was however offset in Europe by a small beat in Europe's GDP, which printed at 0.6%, fractionally above the 0.5% expected.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0revised_0.jpg
We gave a full UK election preview earlier, but for those pressed for time, here is a quick cheat sheet. For all the scenarios of a hung-parliament or Labour-led coalition, the central assumption is for a slightly increased majority for the ruling Conservatives and averaging the very diverse opinion poll projections points to the same. Spot sterling has been firm in recent days, although the jump in overnight implied volatility readings to some 30 percent – its highest since July – at least shows some pricing of possible risks over the next 24 hours.


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0preview_0.jpg
Likewise for those curious what Draghi may do, our preview can be found here. Soundings on downgraded inflation forecasts and background trepidation about banking sector stability make it highly unlikely it will signal any major tightening of policy ahead later.


"We expect the ECB to tweak its forward guidance by dropping the easing bias on interest rates, while leaving the rest of its guidance largely unchanged, including the easing bias on asset purchases," UniCredit said in a note.
Commenting on the ECB, a somewhat bemused SocGen's Kit Juckes notes that "it goes without saying that recalibrating a communication strategy in advance of a decision to change policy, isn't the same as actually doing something. The BOJ meets next week and faces a -0.8% y/y GDP deflator in Q1, while the most recent core CPI reading is at zero. BOJ policy is geared to fighting deflation and as other central banks revise inflation forecasts lower, the idea that they could declare victory soon seems strange. For now, US yields - especially TIPS, are holding the lower end of rangers rather than breaking free, and we expect USD/JPY and EUR/JPY to do the same, before moving higher."


Former FBI Director James Comey's will be grilled by Washington politicians later over his claims that President Trump asked him to drop an investigation of former national security adviser Michael Flynn as part of a probe into Russia's alleged meddling in the 2016 presidential election. Although it keeps pressure on Trump, Wall St markets largely shrugged it off after Wednesday's written testimony as not toxic enough to ratchet up the threat of an impeachment.

Here is how DB's Jim Reid saw the release of the prepared Comey remarks:
In summary the general feeling was that it failed to contain a smoking gun and markets mostly ended up ignoring it. There were mentions of Trump asking for assurances on “loyalty” and also a reference to Trump requesting “let this go” with respect to the investigation into former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. But Comey also confirmed that he did not understand the President to be talking about the broader investigation into Russia or possible links to the campaign. The White House released a statement shortly after Comey’s testimony was released saying that the President was pleased that Comey confirmed that Trump was not under investigation in any Russian probe and also that the President “feels completely and totally vindicated”. After briefly dipping lower midway through the session the S&P 500 (+0.16%) limped to a small gain by the close suggesting that the risk premium around the event has perhaps diminished. Should that change today then it’s worth noting that President Trump may live tweet if he feels the need to respond during the testimony according to the Washington Post which could make for some entertainment.


"To be honest I'm absolutely staggered about the degree to which this geopolitical environment and developments are having absolutely no effect on markets," said Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy.

"I'm old enough to remember how nervous the market used to get about this kind of stuff back in the day. I admit I don't know how to price it, but it's really staggering."


The biggest moves of the week so far remain centered around ebbing energy prices and inflation outlooks in general. Brent crude stabilized at $48.50 LCOc1 a barrel in European trading, after another steep drop briefly below $48 overnight. It is now down more than 7 percent year-on-year. With inventories showing no easing of the global glut, an ongoing row between Qatar and its Arab neighbors is seen as undermining the OPEC consensus about production cuts to limit oil supply.


Financially, the isolation of Qatar is taking its toll on the country’s debt and currency markets. Standard & Poor's downgraded Qatar's debt on Wednesday and Moody's warned on Thursday that it saw risks too if the situation continued. The riyal currency fell to an 11-year low and Qatari sovereign dollar bonds also extended losses of recent days. The cost of insuring exposure to the kingdom's debt rose to the highest level since mid-November.
"We expect that economic growth will slow, not just through reduced regional trade, but as corporate profitability is damaged because regional demand is cut off, investment is hampered, and investment confidence wanes," S&P said.

In addition to all of the above, we algo get initial jobless claims data due. Companies reporting earnings include JM Smucker and Dell Technologies.


Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk

1. European equities have seen little in the way of firm direction thus far with participants sitting on the side¬lines ahead of key risk events
2. Similar price action has been observed across FX markets with overnight USD/JPY losses reversed ahead of Comey's testimony today
3. Looking ahead, highlights include the ECB rate decision, Comey's testimony and the UK election exit poll

Market Snapshot

1. S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,433
2. STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 390.02
3. MXAP down 0.2% to 155.09
4. MXAPJ up 0.2% to 504.17
5. Nikkei down 0.4% to 19,909.26
6. Topix down 0.4% to 1,590.41
7. Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,063.06
8. Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,150.33
9. Sensex down 0.08% to 31,247.58
10. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,676.60
11. Kospi up 0.2% to 2,363.57
12. German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.276%
13. Euro down 0.07% to 1.1249 per US$
14. Italian 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to 2.005%
15. Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 1.541%
16. Brent Futures up 0.7% to $48.41/bbl
17. Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,285.75
18. U.S. Dollar Index up 0.01% to 96.76

Top Overnight Stories from Bloomberg

1. BOJ is re-calibrating its communications to acknowledge that it is thinking about how to handle a future exit from monetary stimulus
2. Eurozone 1Q F GDP revised higher q/q to 0.6% from 0.5%; gross capex revised to 1.3% from 0.6% prev.
3. Italy: finance ministry is pressing domestic banks to contribute EU1.2b to rescue the two Veneto banks
4. German Apr. Industrial Production y/y: 2.9% vs 2.1% est; Economy Ministry says the solid development in orders and sales indicates a continued upswing
5. China May Trade Balance: $40.8b vs $47.8b; imports 14.8% vs 8.3% est; exports 8.7% vs 7.2% est.
6. Britain Votes as Narrowing Polls Indicate These Five Scenarios
7. Draghi Still Missing Inflation as Growth Pushes ECB Near Exit
8. China Stocks Atop Emerging World as Bubble Panic Forgotten
9. Alibaba Expects 45-49% Revenue Growth in FY2018
10. Moody’s Loses Hong Kong Red Flag Appeal Against Regulator
11. Hewlett Packard CEO Says Profit Margins Will Improve in 4Q
12. Teva Signals It’s Seeking New Chief With Experience at the Helm

Asia equity markets were choppy amid a cautious tone ahead of today's trifecta of key risk events including the UK election, ECB policy meeting and to a lesser extent, former FBI Director Comey's testimony after the pre-released statement didn't appear to be too damaging for President Trump. Indecisive trade was seen in ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%), with Australia stocks initially led lower by weakness in energy after a surprise DoE build. However, a mild improvement in tone was observed amid encouraging Chinese Exports and Imports figures, while Japanese stocks were driven by a temperamental JPY. Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) and Hang Seng (+0.3%) were underpinned by the Chinese trade data and after the PBoC conducted another respectable liquidity injection. 10yr JGBs saw volatile trade with prices pressured throughout the session despite a downward revision to Q1 GDP figures and a better than prior 5yr auction. Selling was later exacerbated heading into the European open with some analysts attributing the pressure to an article that the BoJ is tweaking its communications to suggest it is contemplating how to handle a future QE exit. As reported last night, the Chinese Trade Balance rebounded to (CNY)(May) M/M 281.6bIn vs. Exp. 324.1 bin (Prey. 262.3bIn). Chinese Exports (CNY)(May) Y/Y 15.5% vs. Exp. 13.5% (Prey. 14.3%) Chinese Imports (CNY)(May) Y/Y 22.1% vs. Exp. 8.3% (Prey. 18.6%) .


Top Asian News

1. BOJ Is Said to Re-Calibrate Communications on Future Exit
2. Hong Kong Stocks Inch Higher as China Trade Data Beat Estimates
3. Indofood Sukses to Purchase Land From CEO Salim: First Pacific
4. Iran Acid Attacker Wounds 16 in Tehran: Fars
5. Chinese Automakers Rise After Vehicle Sales Reverse Drop in May
6. Japan’s Yield Curve Steepens Further Led by Super-Long Bonds
7. Alibaba Foresees Sales Growth of As Much As 49 Percent This Year
8. Sungrow Power Rises to Highest This Year After Prelim. 1H Profit
9. U.S., China Team for First Mainland Offshore Commodities Index

European equities have traded with subdued behaviour throughout this 'Super Thursday'. Key risk events today will take focus, with participants awaiting the EU interest rate decision, former FBI Director Comey's testimony, with the UK election exit polls due at 22.00 BST. Sector specific trade is evident of the tentative behaviour, as Utilities outperform assisted by an upgrade for E.ON alongside a continuation of yesterday's tax ruling. Telecoms are the noticeable laggard in the Stoxx 600 following Vodafone going ex div, trading down over 3%. Fixed Income markets have taken influence from Asia, as the G7 10 yr yields take impetus from JGBs, following an article that the BOJ is tweaking its communications to suggest it is contemplating how to handle a future QE exit. As such, Bunds and Gilts both trade lower on the day, as the Gilt Sep'17 future contract looks towards the 128 handle.

Top European News

1. Hung Parliament, Labour Win Risks Daunt Traders Day of U.K. Vote
2. Merkel and Macron Hand Boost to Bulgaria’s Euro Aspirations
3. Petronet Slides Most in Seven Months After Engie Sells Stake
4. Kinnevik Sells Final $244 Million Stake in Rocket Internet
5. European Miners Gain; Citigroup Sees Opportunity Following Slump
6. Pandora Advances; Jyske Says Positive Signet Signs Help Shares
7. Kinnevik’s Timing on Rocket Exit ‘Somewhat Odd’: Northern Trust
8. Allianz Said to Explore Buying Rest of France’s Euler Hermes
9. Hedge-Fund Bet on Banco Popular Collapse Yields Maximum Gain

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent as of 9:57 a.m. in London. The pound was little changed at $1.2961 while the yen and euro weakened 0.1 percent. USD/JPY saw some bearish pressure following the overnight BoJ article, however, found a bid around 109.40. Elsewhere, currency markets identify the quiet tone as we approach the aforementioned risk events. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP have been evident of this, trading in a range bound fashion throughout the European morning, as EUR/GBP has the highest overnight implied volatility since Brexit. For EUR/USD and the rest of the cross rate, it is all about the ECB meeting today, and source stories suggesting that inflation forecasts will be revised lower saw longs taking a hit, though the spot move ran back into fresh demand ahead of 1.1200, and we are back in position to retest 1.1280-1.1305 should the press conference


In commodities, oil recovered slightly from the biggest drop since February 2016 after a surprise expansion in U.S. stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.7 percent to $46.05 a barrel. Gold dropped 0.1 percent to $1,285.23 an ounce. Industrial metals climbed as China’s imports and exports expanded more than expected. Copper advanced 1 percent to $5,676.50 a metric ton while zinc gained 1.4 percent and nickel rose 0.7 percent. WTI held near yesterday's lows and failed to make any significant recovery from the DoE-triggered losses, in which an unexpected build pushed prices lower by around 5% to beneath USD 46/bbl. Elsewhere, gold prices slipped slightly alongside the mildly firmer greenback, whilst copper gained amid the better than expected Chinese Exports and Imports data.

Looking at the day ahead, aside from the obvious UK election, ECB meeting and Comey testimony focus there is also a bit of data due out. In Europe this morning we receive April industrial production in Germany which came in at 0.8%, stronger than expected (+0.5% mom expected) which will be an important hard data point to see in context of the recent PMIs. Also due out is the final Q1 GDP report for the Euro area which also beat at 0.6%, (exp. 0.5%). Consensus is for no change to the +0.5% qoq initial reading. This afternoon in the US we receive the latest weekly initial jobless claims data. Away from that Draghi’s press conference at 1.30pm BST post the ECB decision will of course be worth watching.



US Event Calendar

1. 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 248,000
2. 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.92m, prior 1.92m
3. 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.2
4. 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $2.04t

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Once a decade there's a particularly depressing day that you have to endure and try to find a way to come to terms with. Sadly yesterday was that day for me. Yes my new passport arrived as the old one was expiring and a (relatively) youthful photo of me from 2007 was replaced by a more haggard version of me from 2017. Given I travel quite a bit I tend to see a lot of my passport photo and still cling on to that old image being the true reflection of me. Not anymore. By the time the next one comes along though I'll have had a decade of looking after twins to add yet more worry lines!!


Anyway welcome to “Super Thursday”. I’ll be voting in the UK soon after this email hits inboxes. If you’re in the UK I hope you do too unless you disagree with me and then I hope you don’t. I suppose one of the surprising features of this election is that if the polls* are to be believed (not a given clearly), then the UK will go back to a 2-party state again. Current polling puts the combined support for the two main parties at around 80%. The last three elections have seen combined support between 65-68%. In the 11 eleven elections since 1974, only 1979 (80.8%) saw it above 80%. Between 1945-1970 it was between 87-97%. Across the developed world there has generally been a fragmentation of politics in recent years, especially in Europe after the financial crisis, with lots of populist movements forming and taking votes away from the establishment. Indeed in the recent French elections the two main parties failed to make the second round for the first time in the 60 years of the current set-up. So why has this reversal occurred in the UK and does it mark a return to establishment politics?

Well post-Brexit, UKIP no longer serves the same purpose as it has done and the Liberal Democrat Party don't seem to have captured the imagination in focusing a large part of their campaigning on a second EU referendum. Given that 48% voted against Brexit it seemed a reasonable strategy but most people in the UK seemed to have moved on and have accepted the will of the people so it’s not been a campaign issue that has seemingly resonated. Although the two main parties have seen a relative combined revival it does feel this is more circumstantial and we’d still expect this to be the exception with anti-establishment politics likely to be around for years to come, especially in Europe. The last 6 general elections in Europe have actually seen these parties under-perform the final polls but I think this is as much to do with the recent cyclical strength in the European economy. The structural issues are still there. Back to today, here is a link to DB’s election guide, with timings and what to watch for.


Elsewhere today we have the ECB meeting and Mr Comey’s testimony to the Senate. On the ECB, our economists changed their call last week. They now think the balance of probabilities have shifted away from a change to forward guidance so soon with the soft May flash inflation print last week perhaps helping to offset confidence in the growth outlook. They still expect some soft exit expectations management, for example, talking up economic growth and tasking the internal committees to consider the options for forward guidance, deposit rate and QE.

Strong growth and low inflation probably allows Draghi to be upbeat but hold back from big changes today.
On this, the big story yesterday was a press report suggesting that the ECB was preparing to cut its inflation forecast at today’s meeting. A Bloomberg article claimed that projections will now be at 1.5% for 2017, 2018 and 2019 against 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.7% back in March. If true this would be a big move as it would really be difficult to see a taper being announced until they edged higher again. The article did however say that ‘forecasts for core inflation, excluding energy and food, are likely to be little changed’. These were at 1.1%, 1.5% and 1.8% in March.

A Reuters article subsequently said that ECB sources indicate that any changes made will be small, in some cases as tiny as 10bps. This led to a round trip in yields and the Euro yesterday albeit in what was still quite a tight range. Indeed 10y Bunds were up a couple of basis points in the early going at 0.267% prior to the headlines hitting, before quickly falling to a low of 0.242%, only to then rebound into the close to finish at 0.265% and up 1.7bps on the day. The intraday range in BTPs was 5.6bps while Spain and Portugal also saw ranges of 5.1bps and 5.9bps respectively. The Euro also traded in a 0.70% range versus the Dollar and ultimately finished down a fairly modest -0.18%.


Meanwhile with regards to Comey’s testimony, yesterday we got an early look at the former FBI Director’s prepared remarks. In summary the general feeling was that it failed to contain a smoking gun and markets mostly ended up ignoring it. There were mentions of Trump asking for assurances on “loyalty” and also a reference to Trump requesting “let this go” with respect to the investigation into former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. But Comey also confirmed that he did not understand the President to be talking about the broader investigation into Russia or possible links to the campaign. The White House released a statement shortly after Comey’s testimony was released saying that the President was pleased that Comey confirmed that Trump was not under investigation in any Russian probe and also that the President “feels completely and totally vindicated”. After briefly dipping lower midway through the session the S&P 500 (+0.16%) limped to a small gain by the close suggesting that the risk premium around the event has perhaps diminished. Should that change today then it’s worth noting that President Trump may live tweet if he feels the need to respond during the testimony according to the Washington Post which could make for some entertainment.


That small gain for the S&P last night was more notable in the face of a decent leg lower for Oil. WTI plummeted -5.13% following the latest EIA data which showed crude, gasoline and distillate supplies all unexpectedly rising last week (crude breaking a run of 8 consecutive weeks of supply declines). That meant WTI settled at $45.72/bbl which is only a smidgen below the $45.52/bbl closing low for 2017 recorded last month. Beyond that, the last time WTI went below $45.50/bbl was back in November. Oil-sensitive currencies struggled in the wake of that (Norway, Canada and Russia down 0.5-1.0%) although interestingly Treasury yields did climb a little higher (2y +1.4bps, 10y +2.8bps, 30y +2.5bps) – albeit in the context of a decent move down for yields of late. It’s worth noting also that the 2y10y spread did close at 84.7bps last night which is the lowest since October last year. That spread got as wide as 136bps back in December and was also in the mid 100’s just last month so there’s been a reasonable flattening recently which is a worry for those of us that think the yield curve is a good macro predictor.


This morning in Asia risk assets appear to be mostly waiting on the sidelines with only small moves up or down for the Nikkei (+0.05%), Hang Seng (-0.01%), Shanghai Comp (-0.06%), ASX (+0.07%) and Kospi (-0.35%). The latter perhaps underperforming following the news of another missile launch by North Korea. Data in China this morning showed that both exports and imports rose more than expected in May. Meanwhile in Japan the final Q1 GDP print in Japan revealed that growth in the quarter was lower than first estimated at +0.3% qoq (from +0.5% in the flash reading). The consensus was actually for a one-tenth upward revision to +0.6%. While we’re on Japan its worth highlighting that yesterday a Reuters report hit the wires suggesting that the BoJ may upgrade its view on the economy as early as next week, but at the same time may be forced to cut inflation forecasts given a stubbornly weak price outlook. That almost feels like a repeat of the ECB story yesterday.


On to geopolitical tensions, the Middle East situation continues to grab headlines on an almost daily basis at the moment. Iran yesterday blamed a terror attack in Tehran on Saudi Arabiaand vowed to take revenge while the UAE Government warned of a possible economic embargo on Qatarshould the Gulf state not change its course. Qatar’s credit rating was also downgraded one notch by S&P to AA- and put on CreditWatch negative. While not necessarily having a direct impact right now on wider markets the tensions in the Middle East are certainly bubbling below the surface.


Closer to home, aside from the ECB focus the other main story for the market was the rescue of Banco Popular by Santander and the subsequent wiping out of AT1 debt of Popular. This follows the Single Resolution Board stepping in and announcing resolution action after stating that the entity was “failing or likely to fail”. For context Popular’s 11.5% AT1 perps were trading at Par at the end of March and have now been effectively written down to zero. The move was however reasonably isolated with no huge impact to other AT1 bonds issued by Euro banks. The iTraxx Sub Fins (+1bp) did underperform relative to Sen Fins (-2bps) but the magnitude of the move wasn’t all that significant. In equity markets the Stoxx 600 closed -0.06% yesterday.


Before we wrap up, with regards to the economic data yesterday, in the US the sole release was consumer credit in April which was reported as rising just $8.2bn during the month (vs. $15.0bn expected) which was the smallest increase since August 2011. In Germany factory orders in April disappointed at -2.1% mom (vs. -0.3% expected) although the annual rate still remains up at +3.5% yoy. In the UK the Halifax house price index rose +0.4% mom in May after expectations were for a small decline.


Looking at the day ahead, aside from the obvious UK election, ECB meeting and Comey testimony focus there is also a bit of data due out. In Europe this morning we receive April industrial production in Germany (+0.5% mom expected) which will be an important hard data point to see in context of the recent PMIs. Also due out is the final Q1 GDP report for the Euro area. Consensus is for no change to the +0.5% qoq initial reading. This afternoon in the US we receive the latest weekly initial jobless claims data. Away from that Draghi’s press conference at 1.30pm BST post the ECB decision will of course be worth watching.



COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: This Ladies (If Any Still Around) and Gentleman is the TRUE DEFINITION of FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS. The most IMPORTANT PART IS AND ALWAYS WILL BE "THE MONEY FLOW"

A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them


Benjaminis: That applies only when special circumstances merit it and can only be done with complete AWARENESS of Risk VS Reward.

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1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,932 Posts | Online Now

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2017/0...t-markets.html

TUESDAY, JUNE 06, 2017
What Do We Truly Know About Markets?
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aGWiAUAeC...edgeWisdom.jpg
Let's do a little exercise.

Here's a question. Please write down your answer to the question before reading on:
WHAT DO YOU KNOW WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE ABOUT TRADING/INVESTING THAT DOESN'T REQUIRE ANY STATISTICAL SUPPORT?

Knowledge is what has statistical support; wisdom is what we know to be true from hard-earned life experience. What do you truly know about markets and trading? What wisdom do you draw upon in your best trading and investing?

Once you've written out your answer, please compare your wisdom with the answers offered by a number of thoughtful market participants.This blog post from Abnormal Returns has plenty of insight to inform our trading.

Good trading is grounded in knowledge; great trading reflects wisdom. The best market lessons are also phenomenal life lessons. Your best trading will result from acting on your greatest wisdom.
Further Reading: Life Lessons From The Trading Trenches
Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 3:13 PM




“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.” ― William Shakespeare, As You Like It


This week is Blogger Wisdom week on Abnormal Returns. As we have done in previous years we asked an esteemed group of independent finance bloggers a series of (hopefully) provocative questions. Answers are not edited and the author’s name, blog name and Twitter handles follow. We hope you enjoy these posts as much as we do putting them together.


Question: What do you know with a high degree of confidence about investing that does not require any statistical support?(Answers in no particular order.)


Wayne Lloyd, Dynamic Hedge, @dynamichedge:
Leverage can be deadly. It doesn’t take a statistician to know that if you bet more than you have, you are dramatically increasing your risk. It’s great on the way up, though!


Barry Ritholtz, Big Picture, @ritholtz, Masters in Business podcast:
I know how little I know: I am aware of the limitations of what I truly know for sure; that I have no idea what the market will do next year or the year after; what sectors are going to outperform, what stocks will still be here in a decade or two; what the Fed will do, where the Dow will be, what GDP looks like. Once we acknowledge what we do and don’t know, it makes the task before us easier, as we are not relying on a false set of premises to build our investments and portfolios upon.


Tom Brakke, the research puzzle, @researchpuzzler:
Performance distorts decision making. Almost always and almost everywhere. Very few investors, including professionals, can avoid the tug of historical numbers when making decisions. (Some are more swayed by long-term numbers and others by what’s happened recently.) The evidence backs up that belief, but you don’t need it to know it’s the way of the world; you can easily observe it.


David Merkel, The Aleph Blog, @alephblog:
We know that stocks represent shares in the ownership of businesses and bonds and loans are promises to pay. If we buy sound investments and hold them, we will make money in the long run at minimum (absent war on your home soil, famine, plague, socialism, etc.)


David Shvartsman, Finance Trends, @financetrends, newsletter:
Top traders and investors work to find strategies that suit their personalities (so they can stick with it) and produce net profits over time. Then there is risk management, which keeps you in the game. Whether you are a chart-based swing trader or a long-term value investor, you must find some way to limit your losses or define your “margin of safety” in order to preserve your capital and secure your ability to take advantage of future opportunities. As the popular Market Wizards book series suggests, there are many paths to trading and investing success. While investing styles can vary wildly, a common thread among the top investors interviewed is a respect for the markets and a defined process for controlling risk.



Ben Carlson, A Wealth of Common Sense, @awealthofcs, author of Organizational Alpha: How to Add Value in Institutional Asset Management:
No matter what anyone tells you, successful investing is hard. No stance in the financial markets is ever easy and no strategy will ever give you 100% confidence in your ability to achieve your financial goals. You can make things simpler or more complex but no matter what you do it’s going to be hard. There are far too many psychological landmines to allow this game to ever be easy.


[Membership] An annual membership helps support Abnormal Returns and gives you access to exclusive e-mails and perks.


Tobias Carlisle, The Acquirer’s Multiple, @greenbackd, co-author of Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Investors:
Value investing works. Buying something for less than it’s worth increases the value of the buyer’s holdings. I don’t need a backtest to know it makes sense.


Andrew Miller, Miller Financial, @millerak42 , guest blog at blog.alphaarchitect.com:
Investors should minimize or optimize taxes and fees.


Roger Nusbaum, Random Roger, @randomroger:
The stock market goes up most of the time and every so often it goes down a lot and scares the hell out of a lot of people because it is somehow “different” than other past declines. The circumstances for the declines are different but not the market process for handling declines. It goes down a lot, people panic then it stops going down, often for no apparent reason and then it starts to go back up to a new high. The only variable is how long it will take to make that new high. An advisor or investor may or may not be able to add alpha along the way but the simple act of remembering there is nothing new about the market going down a lot along with maintaining a suitable asset allocation and adequate savings rate should be sufficient provided that panic is not succumbed to.


Jonathan Clements, Humble Dollar, @clementsmoney, author of How to Think About Money:
Thanks to investment costs, investors must collectively lag behind the market–and, thanks to skewness, the number who outperform will be far fewer than a normal distribution curve would suggest.


Phil Huber, bps and pieces, @bpsandpieces:
Hindsight is a hell of a drug.


Jesse Felder, The Felder Report, @jessefelder:
Markets and economies move in cycles characterized by mean reversion.


[E-mail] Subscribe to our daily e-mail newsletter to stay up-to-date with all of our posts.


James Osborne, Bason Asset Management, @basonasset:
That most decisions get made with a high degree of confidence without having any statistical support.


Andrew Thrasher, Andrew Thrasher, @andrewthrasher, 2017 Charles H. Dow Award Winner:
The price of a stock is a result of its supply and demand.



Charles Sizemore, Charles Sizemore, @charlessizemore:
Overweighting a position, no matter how good it looks, is almost always a bad idea. For every Warren Buffett that massively overweights a position like Coca-Cola that ends up doing well, there are many more Bill Ackmans that massively overweight a Valeant Pharmaceuticals and have it blow up in their face.


Morgan Housel, Collaborative Fund, @morganhousel:
That relative values are confusing. That compounding is not intuitive. That many people are here for the game more than the outcome. That simple things are too easy for smart people to take seriously. That Michael Batnick is a good writer.


Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism, @cullenroche:
I know, with increasing certainty, that I know less than I think I do.



Michael Kitces, Nerd’s Eye View, @michaelkitces:
The ongoing march of market efficiency will always be limited by the ability of human beings to behave rationally. Which means that even as most forms of available alpha seem to be shrinking, some level of sustainable alpha – “behavioral” alpha – will remain.

In essence, we can think of market inefficiencies as providing two different types of alpha: informational alpha, available to use who can rationally access and use available information better than peers, but prone to being arbitraged away; and behavioral alpha, available to those who can behave better than peers, and capture the return opportunities created by the behavioral mistakes of others, and more likely to sustain (as long as our brains are wired the way they are). Of course, the caveat is that the behavioral biases that create behavioral alpha opportunities are the same biases that make it hard for any particular investor to capture behavioral alpha in the first place!


Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D., Alpha Architect, @alphaarchitect, co-author of Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner’s Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System:
Better to be lucky than good.


Ivaylo Ivanov, Market Wisdom and Ivanhoff, @ivanhoff:
Big corrections lead to great buying opportunities. Trends last a lot longer than most expect because different people buy for different reasons and at different stages of a trend. All trends need sceptics; otherwise, there won’t be anyone left to buy. Corrections are relatively rare, but they are fast and furious and most people don’t act the way they think they will act during them.


Robert Seawright, Above the Market, @rpseawright:
I know a lot less than I assume I do.


Jake, EconomPic Data, @econompic:
That investors love stories aligned with their prior views and will look for flaws with any new information that runs counter to these views.


Michael Martin, MartinKronicle, The Michael Martin Show, @martinkronicle:
As an investor and trader it’s clear that market participants will continue to act emotionally around money.Ego can be a much more powerful emotional force than fear or greed. People who are very well educated don’t like being wrong. They are not used to it. Designations and degrees are “perceived as success” around attaining knowledge, but that is not the same as being able to have tactical mastery. Having a big ego around intelligence can keep individuals tied to the whipping post for a lot longer than they have to be. Rule: Your first loss is your best loss. Get out. Learn from your mistakes. You can always get back in at a better time.




Peter Lazaroff, Peter Lazaroff, @peterlazaroff:
You have no control over the market. The implication is that you should spend way less time thinking about the market and worrying about short-term moves.



Robin Powell, The Evidence-Based Investor, @robinjpowell:
Everyone who expresses an opinion about it is in some way conflicted. It’s usually to do with our business model or some other financial incentive; it’s sometimes about personal or professional pride, or trying to justify silly things we’ve said or done in the past. Always ask, Who’s saying this and Why?



Jeffrey Miller, A Dash of Insight, @dashofinsight:
Whatever proposition you make or conclusion you reach can be supported by a carefully-selected chart, some ancient investing wisdom, or advice from a “billionaire fund manager or investor”.


Jeff Carter, Points and Figures, @pointsnfigures:
Markets will take you to the point of emotional breakage. You will get out. Then it will go the way you wanted it to go.



Brett Steenbarger, TraderFeed, @steenbab, author of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes:
Diversification works. If you can harvest returns from relatively uncorrelated strategies with positive expected value, your return stream will be smoother and more reliable than if you go big on any particular strategy. The way to get big is to get broad. Investors have finite Sharpe ratios and those Sharpes have some degree of variability. Many of the psychological problems that occur among investors and traders are the result of amping up strategies and being unable to tolerate the drawdowns when those strategies hit expectable drawdowns.



Thanks to everyone for their time and effort. Don’t forget to check out Tuesday’s Blogger Wisdom question on what we would learn if we had 1000 years of good financial data.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Of all the GREAT QUOTES THE ONE THAT BEST APPLIES TO MY FOREX TRADING STYLE IS THIS ONE.

"Michael Martin, MartinKronicle, The Michael Martin Show, @martinkronicle:
As an investor and trader it’s clear that market participants will continue to act emotionally around money.Ego can be a much more powerful emotional force than fear or greed. People who are very well educated don’t like being wrong. They are not used to it. Designations and degrees are “perceived as success” around attaining knowledge, but that is not the same as being able to have tactical mastery. Having a big ego around intelligence can keep individuals tied to the whipping post for a lot longer than they have to be. Rule: Your first loss is your best loss. Get out. Learn from your mistakes. You can always get back in at a better time."

Michael Martin, MartinKronicle, The Michael Martin Show, @martinkronicle:

As an investor and trader it’s clear that market participants will continue to act emotionally around money.

Ego can be a much more powerful emotional force than fear or greed.

People who are very well educated don’t like being wrong. They are not used to it.

Designations and degrees are “perceived as success” around attaining knowledge, but that is not the same as being able to have tactical mastery.

Having a big ego around intelligence can keep individuals tied to the whipping post for a lot longer than they have to be.

Rule: Your first loss is your best loss. Get out. Learn from your mistakes. You can always get back in at a better time.

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - US 30

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - Gold

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - Silver

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5

5 Minute Chart From Finviz - 10 Year US Bonds

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

Comments from Benjaminis: Now you can see it is all about RISK ON or RISK OFF and that determines the MONEY FLOW.

More comments later after the Equity Markets OPEN at 9:30 AM (New York Time)

Benjaminis

 

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1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 2,934 Posts | Online Now

Inserted Video


PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge ALL FOR FREE until May 31, 2017 and then if you have subscribed to this thread before May 31, 2017, then you will get a FREE LIFETIME PASS to our company website.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS here on our thread.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

https://goldswitzerland.com/cassandr...anks-and-gold/

CASSANDRA, CENTRAL BANKS and GOLD
Posted on June 9, 2017

by Egon von Greyerz

The general public doesn’t like hearing what some of us who are Cassandras have to say. Because our message is does not fit in with the choir of propaganda and lies. We are predicting a future for the world which is unpleasant for most people and therefore few believe our predictions. It is part of human nature to believe that the current state of affairs will go on forever. And that is the case whether times are good or bad. In bad times, everyone believes that it will never end. I remember vividly the 1970s in the UK when it felt like the severe recession was going to be permanent. It is the same now; conventional wisdom says that the economy will continue to grow at a steady pace and so will assets such as stocks and property. Very few realise that the growth we have seen in the last few decades is totally false and based on credit and printed money.


Cassandra’s accurate prophecies were ridiculed
https://i0.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...00%2C288&ssl=1
Cassandra was the daughter of the king of Troy in Greek mythology. The god Apollo gave Cassandra the power of prophecy but when she resisted his approaches, Apollo inflicted a curse that no one would ever believe her prophies although they were all accurate. And this is exactly what is happening to Cassandras or soothsayers today. Many of us are totally clear about the consequences of the total mismanagement of the economy during the last 100 years. Gradually the situation has deteriorated to a point when there is no solution. Instead, at some point in the next few years the debt and asset bubbles will implode with dire consequences for the global economy and for most people on the planet. But just like with Cassandra, nobody believes what we are saying when we are predicting the likely outcome of the most massive, government led, global Ponzi scheme in history.

Don’t get me wrong, we were not knowingly given prophetic powers by Apollo or any other god. But a few of us are absolutely convinced that you cannot build prosperity on a lie, on printed money or by breaking laws of nature that have stood the test of time. We now live in a world where lies have become the truth.


As George Orwell said:
“The very concept of objective truth is fading
out of the world. Lies will pass into history.”


From Ponzi to Shangri-La
In order to run a successful Ponzi scheme, participants must be made to believe that they are all winners. Human beings’ inherent greed prevents them from seeing that a Ponzi scheme eventually runs out of money since it will require a few billion creatures from another planet for everyone to get their pay-out. In a modern economy, unlimited amounts of money can of course be printed or created electronically. And this governments will do in a final and desperate attempt to save the world. But just like with a Ponzi scheme, all this manufactured money will have zero value. Otherwise, why don’t we just print unlimited amounts of money and stop working and stop all production. This would be the perfect Shangri-La world with nobody working and everyone living in total affluence. But sadly, it is not that easy.
https://i1.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...57%2C190&ssl=1
Governments’ money forging scheme which has lasted a century is now coming to an end. The value of all major currencies in the world has declined 97-99% in the last 100 years. In the next few years we will see money printing of a scale that make all these currencies worthless by declining the final 1-3%. Though, what we must remember is that this final move involves a 100% decline in value from today.


Because even if Orwell is correct that lies are the new truth today, fortunately the truth will always win over time.

As Winston Churchill said:
“The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.”


Fed, ECB and BoJ have printed $10 trillion since 2006
Since 2006, global debt has grown exponentially and is now around $250 trillion. This is all driven by the main central banks in their attempt to prevent the financial system from collapsing. The three major central banks’ balance sheets have all expanded rapidly during the same period. They have all taken turns in the race to become the most profligate money printer. For a few years the Fed was in the lead but since 2015, the BoJ and ECB have caught up quickly. All three have now printed around $4.5 trillion each, having grown from below $1 trillion at the beginning of this century. The seesawing is likely to continue and sometime during the next 12-18 months, the Fed will start accelerating the US money printing again by adding many trillion dollars or even tens of trillions to their balance sheet.



https://i0.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...50%2C379&ssl=1 global stock market rises to new highs. No one should be under the illusion that all is well on Stock Street and that the new highs we are seeing in many markets around the world is based on real growth.

This rise is primarily liquidity driven, leading to over valuations and p/e ratios not seen since the 2000 stock market bubble.


The graph below shows the perfect correlation between money printing and stocks. In March 2009, the combined balance sheet of the Fed, BoJ and ECB was $5.8 trillion whilst the S&P index was at 700. Since then, the three central banks’ balance sheets are up 2.3 times to $13.6 trillion and the S&P is up 3.5 times to 2,400. So this is where the world is today. For stock prices to grow, money must be printed, for GDP to grow by one dollar, credit must be expanded by several dollars. At the same time, billions of paper gold must be created and sold to keep the gold price down. Because a high and true price of gold would be a sign of economic mismanagement and must therefore be prevented at any cost. Thus, we are really living a lie. Cassandra would have seen this and warned the world but no one would have listened. And for the Cassandras of today it is the same. Very few want to hear what we have to say and most people think we are mad, just like Cassandra.
https://i0.wp.com/goldswitzerland.co...50%2C362&ssl=1
Household, Auto and Student Loans – the next disaster

Until the truth is revealed, debt will continue to expand but not only the Fed’s balance sheet. US National debt is $ 20 trillion and will at least double in the next 8 years like it has every 8 years since 1980. In addition, more and more US sectors are joining the $1 trillion debt club. Currently it has the following members; Unsecured households, Auto loans and Student debts. Outstanding debt for each one of these categories exceeds $1 trillion and growing. But not only are the debts growing but so are bad debts. Eventually most of these debts will become bad debts with no chance of ever being repaid. Also, US corporate debt is growing and is up $8 trillion since 2010.
But it is not only US debt growing as we are seeing the same trends in Europe, Asia, Canada, Australia and Emerging Markets. What the world is now experiencing is the last hurrah of a global debt bonanza.


In addition to debt, pensions or the lack of them will be a massive problem for world population. Aging populations in many countries like Japan, China and Europe will lead to human misery. In the US 10,000 people reach 65 every day! Very few of these will have enough pension savings to live on for the rest of their lives especially when the recession/depression hits.


Short term, US unemployment is pointing to a less buoyant economy than the Fed had planned for. The latest unemployment figures are making another two rate hikes in 2017 very unlikely. The real figures are of course a lot worse than the published ones since the Bureau of Labor Statistics invents a few hundred thousand jobs every month.


Gold strength and dollar weakness

As I discussed in my article two weeks ago “Gold’s days of glory beginning as Dollars are ending”, the dollar turned down in December and is now starting a major long-term fall against most currencies. But it won’t be in a straight line since the currency race to the bottom will see much seesaw action.


More importantly, the weaker dollar is a signal that gold is now resuming the long-term bull market. The next pause could be $1,360. We might not see gold going through that level until the autumn, but once it does the rise will be very rapid.
From a wealth preservation point of view, there are two major factors to consider:

1. Global is risk has never been higher in history. And this pertains to economic, financial, geopolitical and cyber risks. Investors must not believe the lies and propaganda they are being fed. All is certainly not well in the state of the world. No, everything is very, very rotten! (to paraphrase Shakespeare’s Hamlet).
2. Physical gold offers the best wealth protection and insurance against the rotten state of the world. Like all insurance policies, gold must be owned and safely stored before the catastrophe happens. At $1,280 per ounce, it is the cheapest insurance premium that anyone will ever pay against the risk of the total destruction of assets and currencies.

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management AG
goldswitzerland.com

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ng-parliament/

British Election Backfires on May – Exit Polls Show Hung Parliament
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Blog/BRITAIN


Posted Jun 9, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
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It’s looking like a Hung Parliament and the polls got it wrong again in Britain. The Conservatives appear to be 12 seats short of the 326 to rule with a majority vote. Theresa May is facing a serious backlash over her shocking election campaign gamble after an exit poll suggested that her snap election roll of the dice has completely failed to pay off. Where before the BREXIT vote was purely conservative, Corbyn had to brace that but then he turned to the youth and gold massive turnout in some areas 75%. London itself is filled with a lot of students. Corbyn appealed to them promising healthcare and tuition promises and thus was tapping into a reservoir of people who would not normally vote.


This election illustrated the entire problem we have been warning about. We are facing a generational battled. Ironically, the youth do not quite realize that voting labour was a vote for the very neo-Marxist policies that have created the crisis we have in pensions going forward. It has been this type of promising manna from heaven with promises to make the rich pay for it is exactly the same policies of Hollande in France, which proved so disastrous. Yet the old saying; Ah to be young again, but know what I know now comes to mind. What the youth have done looks very well like fulfilling what our computer has been projecting – the fall of the British pound long-term.


The problem with this Corbyn Hung Parliament is the fact that his own party pretty much wrote Corbyn off and wanted him to resign after the last election. Since this time he made it really a personal battle, he is unlikely to back-down and will be pushing a Marxist agenda. Ah, how the wheel of fortune revolves.

This Corbyn Hung Parliament now casts a huge doubt over the negotiations for BREXIT. We ran our model fearing that this could be the outcome or if Corbyn would actually win pulling off a surprise victory for Labour. It came back and said SELL Sterling! It is very curious how markets never lie and they show you the trend if you listen to them rather that try to fit their movement to a predetermined outcome. While our computer did show the Conservatives would win, something was wrong since the outlook for the pound was bearish – not bullish.


Socrates Pro Version wrote in the pound concerning the Long-Term:
“Diagnostically, my wide-ranging projection recognizes that the major low in British Pound Spot took place back in 1985 completing a 52 year decline, but we have seen lower highs with each thrust upward leaving the major high intact as of 1959. We have not elected any Yearly Bullish Reversal from the major low of 1985 warning that we remain in a bearish long-term trend. Only an annual closing above 24280 would signal a change in long-term trend. There has been a post low rally after 1985 moving upward into a key high during 2007. Nonetheless, the market has undergone a reaction back to the downside for the past 9 years. This has warned that the overall trend of this market remains bearish since it has been unable to make higher highs. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2017 or as far out as 2020 in real terms adjusted for inflation.

Unquestionably, there remains a risk that we could see a complete monetary reform as early as 2018 going into 2020 or the latest 2032 insofar as a change in the currency base system. This is likely to follow a Sovereign Debt Crisis which should begin to erupt by 2018.”


Our model has been showing that the major resistance stood in the 134 zone both on the Monthly and Weekly levels of our model. Just to achieve a positive signal, we required a monthly closing ABOVE 12954. Socrates has been writing: “Critical resistance still stands in this market at 12954 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.”April closed precisely one tick beneath at 12953. This was perhaps the first hint that there would be trouble ahead. May exceeded the April high intraday, but it also fell back to close at 12889. How Sterling has dropped sharply to the 127 level on the news of a Hung Parliament. How it now closes today will be the market speaking loudly so listen.
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https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....7/06/BREXT.pngSince the computer has been warning that Sterling can fall back to the 1985 low at $1.03, it was hard to reconcile this with the polls calling for a major landslide for the Conservatives.

This is Corbyn’s chance for the big time and you can expect he is going to really muddy the waters because he really believes in Marx. The distinction between Brexiteer and Remainer stands a real chance now of fading away. Battles would still rage on, however, yet the terms and methods of restoring British independence will be completely thrown into the air. Eurocrats in Brussels now face the prospect of an entirely different negotiating team in the event of a cobbled together coalition, which would also need time to thrash out its own Brexit strategy.


Our own interaction with British institutions and corporates has been interesting. Many who were against BREXIT and saw that as the end of the world, flipped their position and said hey – they is pretty good. After accepting BREXIT, now the terms are up in the air thanks to May misreading the discontent rising among the youth. We have also warned that revolutions come from the youth, not from the old establishment who have too much to lose rocking the boat.
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https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....inton-evil.jpgCorbyn is a full blown neo-Marxist who would love to convert Britain to a modern version of Communism. Instead of guaranteed minimum wages, he wants maximum wage limits. He has been preaching the same old solution – just rob the rich, which Hillary was preaching while stuffing her own pockets.

The problem is the big numbers he hears that CEOs make is stock options typically more so than salary.

Nevertheless, in his mind if everyone is reduced to the same wage, somehow that will solve everything. Nobody should earn more than he thinks is appropriate. His policies would be the final straw that ends Britain as any type of financial capital whatsoever. The talent will be on the first plane to New York or Hong Kong. With Corbyn in Britain and the EU insanity on the Continent who wants to outlaw short-selling, the pound will not survive even to be a hedge against the Euro.
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The real question is somehow the market is always correct and forecasts the future with extreme precision. The pound could never elect a single Weekly Bullish Reversal which all stand above 13400. Yet the first Weekly Bearish Reversal is 12772 on the cash. If that is elected tomorrow, then the markets are warning that this is going to be a very hard road for Britain. The absolute critical technical support for this week’s closing lies at 12748.

We can see from both the arrays on the pound against the dollar and euro, that the computer projected a turning point for this week. It also generally warns of higher volatility next week. So pay attention to the Weekly Bearish Reversal at 12772.
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Categories: BRITAIN, European Union, Politics
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

State Corporate Tax Receipts Just Crashed The Most Since The Recession
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by Tyler Durden
Jun 9, 2017 3:17 PM



After flatlining for the past year, US income tax receipts - both at the federal government and on a state and local level - have been disappointing, and have posted a sharp drop since the start of the year, which is "sounding an alarm about the health of the US economy" in BofA's words (in addition to the countless other alarms about the health of the economy, which however are ignored due to the record stock market).


As Bank of America highlights something we warned about last September, according to the Rockefeller Institute and CBO, US federal income tax receipts have come in about 3% below expectations this year.
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Digging deeper, the disappointment was largely in personal current tax receipts, with withheld tax receipts showing little growth over the prior two quarters. The story is a bit different for state and local governments where personal tax receipts were fairly stable, but there was a significant decline in tax receipts for corporate income.


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In fact, corporate income tax receipts fell a sharp $7bn in 1Q, the biggest drop since the recession. Since corporate income tax receipts only make up about 14% of the total, there was still a modest gain in overall state and local tax receipts. While there has been particular weakness of late, the trend through last year was weak; according to the Rockefeller Institute, total state tax collections grew only 1.2% in FY16 (declined in real terms), the weakest performance since 2010.


In an attempt to explain away this otherwise troubling development, the CBO has proposed that the weakness in tax receipts may reflect the shift of taxpayer income into later years on the anticipation of legislation to reduce tax rates, which however is looking increasingly unlikely. Presumably this would have the biggest effect on high income and high net-worth individuals. And this will matter for the aggregate figures as the top 1% of earners account for almost 40% of federal personal income tax receipts.

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If, indeed, it is the case that high-net worth individuals and smaller corporations are delaying payments, there would be pent-up tax receipts. As such, tax receipts should jump if and when tax reform is passed or it becomes clear it will fail. Either way, behavior should shift, leading to an increase in declarations of income. The question is over timing

A more likely explanation is that state tax collections continue to be strain from the energy sector, which pays taxes based not on non-GAAP imaginare "wishful earnings", but on hard cash, which for most companies, is still a trickle. This is confirmed by a map of tax receipts on a geographical basis which isolates the energy-patch states. There is a clear pattern of weakness in energy states like Wyoming, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota. Alaska is also heavily oil-dependent and while growth in tax receipts increased sharply, it is coming from a subdued base.
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While a modest recovery in oil prices earlier in the year may have helped, the recent decline will undoubtedly add to further pressure on state corporate tax receipts.

Why does this sharp drop in tax revenues matter? Simple: tax receipts are tracked for varioous reasons, most directly they influence the forecast for government spending. As BofA notes, "a slowdown in tax receipts could lead state and local governments to reduce spending or increase taxes to make ends meet."

According to the Rockefeller Institute, uncertainty surrounding federal tax reforms "leaves the states in the dark as they are finalizing state budgets for the fiscal year 2018." It would seem the combination of potential policy changes on the horizon and the weakening in tax collections results in weak state and local spending. And the data already show hesitance on the part of state and local governments, with state and local government expenditure slicing an average of 0.06ppt from GDP growth over the past four quarters (Chart 3).
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On a federal level, it will impact the amount the government has to borrow to fund its deficit, therefore determining when the government will hit the debt ceiling. This is quite relevant today since the debt ceiling was officially reached on 17 March and has been extended using extraordinary measures. However, the weakness in tax receipts could create challenges, pulling forward the date that the debt ceiling is hit.


This was likely a motivating factor for Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to ask Congress to raise the debt ceiling before the Congressional summer recess begins on 28 July. In our view it is possible this becomes another point of conflict in Washington in coming weeks.


But most importantly, economists care about tax receipts because it is one of the few unvarnished, unadjusted, and realistic data points regarding the health of the overall economy. Tax receipts are a function of income creation in the economy: a slow-down in tax receipts indicates a slowing in income creation and therefore overall economic performance. Growth in federal tax receipts trends with the growth in aggregate payrolls (aggregate hours worked x earnings), which is why the recent deterioration in federal tax receipted is especially troubling.