Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 292 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,821
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:57am Jul 20, 2015 11:57am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} You don't see two peaks but there are 2 peaks, that's why Lower are is a rally, bases and drops, tricky one but it's a peak. WK DZ in control, brand new D1 demand zone, pullback and potential entry. This scenario is quite common. Cheers, Alfonso
thanks Mr Alfonso
this is my analysis on AUDUSD
Mn is down
D is down
H4 is down
My entry in H4 timeframe. but i donot see any data left below chart. so please help me shown me how to locate curve and how to determined target.
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  • #5,822
  • Jul 21, 2015 5:06am Jul 21, 2015 5:06am
Quoting baolong610
{quote} thanks Mr Alfonso this is my analysis on AUDUSD Mn is down D is down H4 is down My entry in H4 timeframe. but i donot see any data left below chart. so please help me shown me how to locate curve and how to determined target. {image} {image} {image}
Hello my friend,

AUD/USD is clearly down, shorts is the way to go. How to determine the curve? Well there are different curves, D1, WK and MN, each of them playing its own role, there are strict rules to determine the curve on any timeframe based on Valleys and Peaks, CPs are not used for the curve unless price is trending on that TF.

The curve is dynamic and each TF has its own which you will establish with the valleys/peaks rules as described in some webinars and posts.

AUD/USD is not low in the Monthly curve, still some room left to reach opposing MN DZ.

Hope it makes sense.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,823
  • Jul 21, 2015 7:15am Jul 21, 2015 7:15am
Dear fellow traders,

Hope you had a great week and summer time wherever you are

Find below the supply analysis for several instruments based on supply and demand imbalances for USD/CAD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD.

As of 21st July, the clearest trends and trade ideas are mainly as follows:

  1. Buy Pound
  2. Sell Australian Dollar
  3. Sell New Zealand Dollar
  4. Sell Euro

Next 3 posts will display Daily charts for these instruments. I'm holding longs on these three currency pairs, but new opportunities are available.

Cheers,
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,824
  • Jul 21, 2015 7:16am Jul 21, 2015 7:16am
AUD/USD is very bearish, all timeframes are down and room to reach opposing Monthly Demand zone.

There are several Daily supply zones higher, 2 of them nested within Weekly supply zone if the Daily descending trendline is broken.

New D1 CP supply zone could be created if price breaks lower current basing candles.

Short bias

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,825
  • Jul 21, 2015 7:16am Jul 21, 2015 7:16am
USD/CAD is very bullish, trading into counter-trend Monthly Supply zone that goes against the bigger picture's trend.

Price has penetrated Monthly supply deeply, few pips left for removal as can be seen at the red line.

Long bias

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,826
  • Jul 21, 2015 7:17am Jul 21, 2015 7:17am
Daily descending trendline broken on USD/JPY. Price almost hit Weekly demand zone and rallied strongly. Both US Index and Nikkei index are very bullish and strong, double correlation for longs on USD/JPY.

Long bias

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,827
  • Jul 21, 2015 11:07am Jul 21, 2015 11:07am
I saw in the recent stock videos that you were using FxPro. I was thinking about them as they have one of the few forex brokerages offering forex. I heard spreads are not that great on forex and that withdrawls can be troublesome. Has anyone here had any experiences they could share in that regard. Feel free to PM if you don't want to say it out loud here.

Thanks.
  • #5,828
  • Jul 21, 2015 12:51pm Jul 21, 2015 12:51pm
Quoting mess7777
I saw in the recent stock videos that you were using FxPro. I was thinking about them as they have one of the few forex brokerages offering forex. I heard spreads are not that great on forex and that withdrawls can be troublesome. Has anyone here had any experiences they could share in that regard. Feel free to PM if you don't want to say it out loud here. Thanks.
..and you have a cleanup report now.
Trade what you see..
  • #5,829
  • Jul 21, 2015 1:43pm Jul 21, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} You don't see two peaks but there are 2 peaks, that's why Lower are is a rally, bases and drops, tricky one but it's a peak. WK DZ in control, brand new D1 demand zone, pullback and potential entry. This scenario is quite common. Cheers, Alfonso
thanks Alfonso.
in case wait for confirmation, when that zone broken trendline but it not remove any supply yet , is that level valid?
  • #5,830
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:40pm Jul 21, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} ..and you have a cleanup report now.
what?
  • #5,831
  • Edited 3:02pm Jul 21, 2015 2:46pm | Edited 3:02pm
Hi Alfonso,

What is the most important? The trend or an opposing SD zone on an higher timeframe?

I never know what to do when price reaches an opposite SD zone of an higher timeframe. For example on your USDCAD chart, what should we do? Even if monthly supply is broken, we cannot buy at the weekly and daily demand zone, because if price returns to those levels the trendline will be broken?

Then given your rules, the only possibility would be if monthly supply is broken and a new weekly demand zone is created or if price goes down, then we would wait for a supply zone. Is that right? Are the some conditions that will allow us to buy at those demand zones?

Can we say that an opposite SD zone on the same timeframe is unlikely to be able to stop the trend? This would be logish as a trend will break opposing SD zones. But a SD zone of a higher timeframe is likely to stop the trend?!
  • #5,832
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:56am Jul 22, 2015 2:56am
Quoting baolong610
{quote} thanks Alfonso. in case wait for confirmation, when that zone broken trendline but it not remove any supply yet , is that level valid?
There is a core rule that says this...

A potential imbalance is confirmed when it breaks an opposing trendline or removes opposing level. That should answer your question, the whole strategy is based on that statement, there are other things, these are the most important ones.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,833
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:58am Jul 22, 2015 2:58am
Quoting mess7777
I saw in the recent stock videos that you were using FxPro. I was thinking about them as they have one of the few forex brokerages offering forex. I heard spreads are not that great on forex and that withdrawls can be troublesome. Has anyone here had any experiences they could share in that regard. Feel free to PM if you don't want to say it out loud here. Thanks.
No issues with them for now. Spread is not that important for trading unless you are scalping obviously, which I am not. I adjust my risk based on spread, width of the zone and wiggle room, so spread is just another variable which need to be added, nothing else.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,834
  • Jul 22, 2015 3:02am Jul 22, 2015 3:02am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi Alfonso, What is the most important? The trend or an opposing SD zone on an higher timeframe?
What is more important? Multiple timeframe analysis and the bigger picture trend.

Quote
I never know what to do when price reaches an opposite SD zone of an higher timeframe. For example on your USDCAD chart, what should we do? Even if monthly supply is broken, we cannot buy at the weekly and daily demand zone, because if price returns to those levels the trendline will be broken? Then given your rules, the only possibility would be if monthly supply is broken and a new weekly demand zone is created or if price goes down, then we would wait for a supply zone. Is that right?

Are the some conditions that will allow us to buy at those...

No, that is not correct. You have not understood the rules correctly. What happens when we have a monthly uptrend? In an uptrend rules say that demand is respected, supply is removed. What do we have on USD/CAD? Clear Monthly uptrend, what do we expect? You should know the answer to that one. You can either wait for it to be taken out or you buy until you get a loss.

There have been some great longs and also counter-trend shorts that were taken on USD/CAD, in fact I'm still holding one. It's all based on the rules. The fact that you have a Monthly supply zone does not mean you can't go long, you can take longs with smaller risk and at good demand zones since rules say that in an uptrend supply is taken out.

Makes sense?
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,835
  • Jul 22, 2015 3:14am Jul 22, 2015 3:14am
I'm also trading stocks now, my broker allows me to do it. Since I started to trade stocks like 3 months ago, I've had lots of trades triggered based on the rules that have been discussed in this thread for a long time. Rules can be applied to any timeframe sequence you choose and to any instrument, be Forex, Commodities, Indexes, Stocks, Futures, anything. Supply and demand governs the markets.

I was triggered on a Daily Demand zone on US stock Harley Davidson, my first trade on this instrument.

This Daily demand imbalance I was triggered at, is an example of supply and demand bigger multiple timeframe analysis, how nested zones at historical prices gain control and finally creates new imbalances.

These new imbalances are confirmed by the main core rule: a potential zone becomes a confirmed imbalance IF it breaks a trendline or takes out an opposing zone.

Lots of reasons to go long, new D1 Demand nested within new Weekly demand zone. Price gapped up on the reaction, which is normally a good signal.
New zone is located within a 3 months Demand zone, 3 months is in an uptrend, 3 months 20 EMA in control. Bigger picture long bias

Hope the whole analysis makes sense, all the pieces were put together with multiple timeframe analysis and a decision had to be taken.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,836
  • Jul 22, 2015 3:37am Jul 22, 2015 3:37am
Thank you Alfonso!

This is the part that was a problem for me:

When is a supply or demand imbalance confirmed as a level?

A zone or imbalance is validated under these 2 specific circumstances:

  1. Imbalance took out an opposing zone.This rule is the core of this supply and demand strategy

    1. Making a higher high or a lower low does not necessarily validates a zone, it also needs to take out an opposing zone
    2. Exception: ​​If there is a H4 demand zone that took out an opposing H4 supply but the supply is within a D1 or bigger timeframe, the removal of the zone does not make the demand zone tradable, it’s way too high and we’ll need the D1 supply to be taken out instead. The same applies with a D1 demand zone having removed an opposing D1 supply zone but that supply zone is located within a WK supply zone. Price is fractal, the same rules apply to all timeframes and combinations


I misunderstood the D1 supply zone it is talked about. This is a possible D1 in which one the broken H4 supply could be. It is not a D1 supply zone that the price could reach after the demand zone is confirmed.

And also I should look at the trend on the higher timeframe: for USDCAD for example, I have to check the monthly trend, which is up. The broken trendline on the daily chart can be used only if we want to trade on lower timeframes.

  • #5,837
  • Jul 22, 2015 7:13am Jul 22, 2015 7:13am
Hello fellow trader,

I hope you had a great weekend and you are enjoying the summer time, if you are in a region with summer season

A new live webinar will be held next Wednesday 29th July 2015. This time we won't cover Forex, we'll go through US Stocks since I am now trading them as well and supply and demand applies to all instruments.

If you haven't watched latest video on US Stocks I sent, you can watch it at this YouTube link

We'll go through a bunch of US Stocks and locate possible trade setups and IF THEN scenarios. Those that have been following me for some time will know what an IF THEN scenario is all about.

You will be given the opportunity to ask which instrument you want me to make a top down analysis for, we'll do it from scratch and locate potential setups.

  1. SUBJECT: US STOCKS longer term position live analysis
  2. DATE: Wednesday 29th July 2015
  3. TIME: 9:00 AM - 11:00 AM GMT +2 Spanish time, right at London Market Open
  4. LINK TO JOIN: if you have attended previous webinars, you will have the link in your inbox, else fill out this form

You can join now, you will be notified by email 1 day and 1 hour before it starts. The webinar will be recorded as always

I'll try to cover all these topics:

  1. Longer term position trading for US Stocks
  2. We'll use the Sequence and The Realignment to locate setups
  3. How to trade with Daily supply and demand imbalances

Have a great day!
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,838
  • Jul 23, 2015 1:01am Jul 23, 2015 1:01am
This is my very first time in H4 chart... plz take a look is it correct?

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It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
  • #5,839
  • Jul 23, 2015 1:26am Jul 23, 2015 1:26am
Quoting infernal199
This is my very first time in H4 chart... plz take a look is it correct? {image}
Zones seem to be correct to me. I say "seem" because you are using a bar chart instead of candlesticks... Very difficult to draw zones with a bar chart.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,840
  • Jul 25, 2015 12:55pm Jul 25, 2015 12:55pm
Hello fellow traders,

Hope you had are having a long great weekend wherever you are in the world. Won't be able to send commentaries on Monday, I had some spare time today and decided to send it over the weekend.

I've created a Twitter account where I'll be posting potential setups and updates during the week, not only on Forex but also on Shares, Indian stocks, Indexes, etc. Supply and demand governs all markets and our lives. These setups will also be posted on my Twitter account

If you want to have updates on new setups via Twitter, follow me on my Twitter account here

Have a great weekend.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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