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  • #41
  • Jul 18, 2014 6:25am Jul 18, 2014 6:25am
Hello everyone,

Sell Day 22:
Open 1.35355
Close 1.35296 Gain: 59 Points // 5.9 Pips
59 Pips x (0.00001/1.35296)x(514$ x 200) = 44$ +514$ = 558$

Buy Day 23(yesterday green):
Open 1.35316
Close 1.35215 Gain: -101 Points // -10.1 Pips
-101 Pips x (0.00001/1.35215)x(558$ x 200) = -83$ +558$ = 475$

Sell Day 23 was taken out by our SL. The SL was yesterdays low.

Sell Day 24(today blue):
Open 1.35220
Close xxxxx

SL yesterdays high: 1.35357

@ umpats and hartnet

Good entry. From now on take every trade from that bar you chose. So next trade will be 24 hour's later but then its weekend, so that is monday.
The best is to close it at the end of the day if it is in profit. For you both SL 1.35158
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  • #42
  • Jul 18, 2014 6:38am Jul 18, 2014 6:38am
Quoting vspatrick
This is like gambling on the roulette , just need to find a way to find an edge to beat the spread and have the "0" on our side....
This is not like gambling. At roulette you have 47.29% to win. So average for every 100 euro (1 euro gamble on the collors ) you get back 47 euros.
In roulette there is no edge mathematical, hence it is made for casino scums.

In this strategy how more you trade how closer you get to the 50% ratio. If you would use no market analysis and a set in stone SL you would just break even. But we use market analysis in this strategy to determine our SL. This way we can get our DD lower then 50% from our losing trades. We get the edge from our losers think about that.

Green pipping to everyone
  • #43
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:25am Jul 18, 2014 7:25am
Errr, Jysticim on my charts the London open was bullish candle followed by another bullish candle therefore a buy signal by your system ?

https://charts.mql5.com/5/245/eurusd...el-markets.png
  • #44
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:29am Jul 18, 2014 7:29am
I understand your very good point Jysticim.

And I will join you and explore the concept from monday using different rules as there is no point just copying yours.
Still using one entry per day on EURUSD.
In the direction shown by a cycle identifier (based on SSALib).
SL based on fractals or ATR...... I ll decide this WE.

Thanks you for sharing the idea, i ll keep posted.
the market is not random but anything can happen.
  • #45
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:35am Jul 18, 2014 7:35am
@ merquise

For example you can take that yes. You need to choose a time/candle for yourself. And take that candle everyday. The best candles to take are candle 2-3-4-5 after London opening because those have the best 50/50 ratio. I always took 3th candle and that is 5 AM NY time. It is not about the entry. The entry is as random as a coin flip. Although you need to consistantly take the same time/candle every day.
  • #46
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:38am Jul 18, 2014 7:38am
Jysticum,
On day 3 (june 19) the short open is far above the high of the previous day. Where is your stoploss?
  • #47
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:40am Jul 18, 2014 7:40am
Quoting Jysticim
{quote} This is not like gambling. At roulette you have 47.29% to win. So average for every 100 euro (1 euro gamble on the collors ) you get back 47 euros. In roulette there is no edge mathematical, hence it is made for casino scums. In this strategy how more you trade how closer you get to the 50% ratio. If you would use no market analysis and a set in stone SL you would just break even. But we use market analysis in this strategy to determine our SL. This way we can get our DD lower then 50% from our losing trades. We get the edge from our losers...

Hi,

Interesting your strategy,

But I have a bit "problems" to understanding it. Let see,

Example:

Day 16/07: London first candle: open @1.35604 , close @1.35592 (bearish) , at the opening of second candle, we close previous order (day 15), at the close of second candle we open a sell order because the second canle was bearish, no? SL on previous day high or low , or open or close? (day 15/07)

And we leave the order open till (in this case monday) monday`s second candle open?

Is that correct

Thanks
  • #48
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:42am Jul 18, 2014 7:42am
Quoting ronichimo
{quote} Hi, Interesting your strategy, But I have a bit "problems" to understanding it. Let see, Example: Day 16/07: London first candle: open @1.35604 , close @1.35592 (bearish) , at the opening of second candle, we close previous order (day 15), at the close of second candle we open a sell order because the second canle was bearish, no? SL on previous day high or low , or open or close? (day 15/07) And we leave the order open till (in this case monday) monday`s second candle open? Is that correct Thanks

Sorry, we leave day 16/07 order open till second candle of day 17 open`s
  • #49
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:44am Jul 18, 2014 7:44am
Quoting Jysticim
{quote} This is not like gambling. At roulette you have 47.29% to win. So average for every 100 euro (1 euro gamble on the collors ) you get back 47 euros. In roulette there is no edge mathematical, hence it is made for casino scums. In this strategy how more you trade how closer you get to the 50% ratio. If you would use no market analysis and a set in stone SL you would just break even. But we use market analysis in this strategy to determine our SL. This way we can get our DD lower then 50% from our losing trades. We get the edge from our losers...
I agree 100% on the first half. And I say your system would be much better than most systems in this forum.

Your concept, catching daily fluctuation, is far better idea than catching swing lows/highs by technical analysis or PA or whatever you call it.

So, the question is about the rules for entry. Your rules need more improvement -- SL in particular. To me, previous day's high/low is not optimal -- in many cases the price bounces at that level.
  • #50
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:46am Jul 18, 2014 7:46am
Quoting Jysticim
@ merquise For example you can take that yes. You need to choose a time/candle for yourself. And take that candle everyday. The best candles to take are candle 2-3-4-5 after London opening because those have the best 50/50 ratio. I always took 3th candle and that is 5 AM NY time. It is not about the entry. The entry is as random as a coin flip. Although you need to consistantly take the same time/candle every day.
Aha, I understand what you are saying, and for a SL you are targeting previous day high/low. One more question, how much % of the account you are risking per trade?
  • #51
  • Jul 18, 2014 3:32pm Jul 18, 2014 3:32pm
@ bertpost

See the screenshot and you will understand it. But it can occur that you are right and that there is no yesterdays high/low in range then you will use your 34 pips set in stone SL.

@ ronichimo

Yes you are right we just leave it there till it gets hit by the SL or if it is still running we close it at the opening level of the candle you choose. When the candle closes you open your new trade. Sell if Bearish - Buy if Bullish

@ Forexgogo

I think that the market is based on physiological interactions, the actions on the market are made by people. Thats why I see support and resistance as a really strong factor although PA is also much worth only you need to be really good at it to be profitable. How can you analyse people of flesh and blood with stubborn mathematical indicators? There can't be rules for entry I will explain this in the next post. About the SL is a good point.

Example
When the market is not volatile and you get a sign from the candle that your next trade will be a buyer. You glance to yesterdays low and see that it is in range (because we have a low volatile market) your SL now is 15 pips(example) lower then your entry. Because 15 pips is not very much you can longer it to 25 pips as 34 pips is the maximum. You can only do this when the market is not volatile and you are for example in range mode. I will have to research about it how much this occurs.

@ merquise

You are risking 50% of you account a trade and you trade 100% of the account in one trade. This is pretty much. I still trade my main trading strategy on my main account and I made a second account for this strategy. I made this thread and strategy to not get bored.
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  • #52
  • Jul 18, 2014 3:45pm Jul 18, 2014 3:45pm
Hi,

someone did a backtest on this strategy?
  • #53
  • Jul 18, 2014 4:44pm Jul 18, 2014 4:44pm
Hello everyone,

In this post I will explain why we make those paticular -not paticular at all- entries.

Nature of Random
We all know those fun casino games were we get to wager our well earned money in the hope we win something. Sloth machines, blackjack, roulette we all know them and they have one thing in common. They all make you lose money. This is because you can't have the edge mathematical the winning factor is always below the 50%.

Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. Randomness suggest a non-ordor or non-coherence in a sequence of symbols or steps, such that there is no inteligible pattern or combination. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness For example roulette is random but to what degree is it random, the same for forex it seems to be random.

Everyone knows what roulette is, you throw a ball into a bin and in this bin you have a spinning wheel with numbers. The outcome seems to be random mathematical there is no way to predict the outcome of the next number. You can use all kinds of mathematical betting systems and it won't work because you have the 47% winning chance that makes you always lose money at last. But roulette is not random, if we look it the physical way it is totally not random. If you could pauze the world and calculate the ball speed know the circumference of the bin and the speed of the wheel with numbers you can totally predict the outcome of the numbers and win big. Here is a interesting video about this: Beating the Wheel
Inserted Video


"No one can win at Roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking" Einstein
I beat you there mate.

So to what degree is forex random. Forex is totally not random at all. But you can make your entries random. When something is random you get always a specific ratio. For example we have numbers 1-10 let a random number generater generate 100,000 numbers and you will see that all the numbers came up arround 10%. At forex when you take a random entry it can go 2 ways, up or down. So after the long run you will get that 50% ratio. So if everybody just entered random they would break even eventually. But why does 90% of all traders lose money? That's because they use mathematical analysis, like indicators that use history to predict the outcome of something that is made out of flesh and blood in the present. It's the same as trying to predict/win roulette with maths and that doesn't work. So with our random entries with a 50% winning/losing ratio we would break even. This is where our SL comes in. We look at yesterdays high/lows support and resistance "physical" analysis. We will always win 50% of the trades so we cut our losses to not have a DD of 50% and we are winning.

Again we are making money from our hitted support and resistance SL, think about it.

Green pipping to everyone
  • #54
  • Jul 18, 2014 4:45pm Jul 18, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting ronichimo
Hi, someone did a backtest on this strategy?
Yes, see second post
  • #55
  • Jul 18, 2014 7:25pm Jul 18, 2014 7:25pm
Quoting Jysticim
But why does 90% of all traders lose money? That's because they use mathematical analysis, like indicators that use history to predict the outcome of something that is made out of flesh and blood in the present. It's the same as trying to predict/win roulette with maths and that doesn't work. So with our random entries with a 50% winning/losing ratio we would break even.
1. Roulette: assuming an unbiased wheel, the house edge is always fixed at 5.26% (if two zeros on the wheel) or 2.70% (one zero). Hence roulette is not 50/50, and the punter will always lose money in the long term, no matter what strategy or MM he uses.

2. Blackjack: the edge is constantly changing, depending on the ratio of high cards to low cards remaining in the deck. A skilled card counter can win at blackjack, by placing higher bets when the odds are favorable, and lower bets otherwise. That's why casinos ban card counters.

Hence roulette is a random game, blackjack not completely so.

3. Forex trading: costs like spreads and commissions effectively create a 'house edge', that works against the trader, hence forex is not 50/50. Costs reduce the size of winning trades, and increase the size of losing trades.

  1. If price movement is always completely random, then forex is analogous to roulette, and all traders will eventually lose, no matter what strategy or MM they use.
  2. If price movement is not always random, then forex is analogous to blackjack, in that traders can trade when the odds are in the favor, and sit out of the market otherwise. If the trader's edge is sufficient to exceed the costs, then he has positive expectancy, and will win in the long term. A trader who is making random entries and exits has no edge, and costs will eventually defeat him. Analogously, he is playing blackjack, which is potentially beatable, but he doesn't have the card counting skills (i.e. trading expertise) that is needed to win.

  • #56
  • Jul 18, 2014 10:44pm Jul 18, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting Jysticim
10 pips/100 points are the same.
Jysticim, why do you continue to say throughout this thread:"10 pips and 100 pips are the same"? 10 pips and 100 pips are NOT the same. Have you not been taught mathematics in school? Even a 5 year old child knows the number 10 is different than the number 100.

I am not trying be a jerk, but I am just frustrated that you don't know the difference between 10 pips and 100 pips.
"Dream big and dare to fail." - Norman Vaughan
  • #57
  • Jul 18, 2014 11:04pm Jul 18, 2014 11:04pm
Does card counting still work, thought it was a thing of the past? These days dealers use shuffling machines and multiple decks
  • #58
  • Jul 19, 2014 12:18am Jul 19, 2014 12:18am
Quoting fugly
Does card counting still work, thought it was a thing of the past? These days dealers use shuffling machines and multiple decks
You're correct, modern countermeasures employed by casinos make it much more difficult. According to games expert Mike Shackleford, "......with today's rules, a realistic advantage the counter will have is only 0.5% to 1.5%. You will not only win money slowly and gradually but your bankroll will go up and down like a roller coaster in the short run. Only in the long run, over hundreds of hours of playing, can you count on winning." (source)
  • #59
  • Jul 19, 2014 12:37am Jul 19, 2014 12:37am
Quoting Ace_1
{quote} Jysticim, why do you continue to say throughout this thread:"10 pips and 100 pips are the same"? 10 pips and 100 pips are NOT the same. Have you not been taught mathematics in school? Even a 5 year old child knows the number 10 is different than the number 100. I am not trying be a jerk, but I am just frustrated that you don't know the difference between 10 pips and 100 pips.
People are so hung up about this pip thing. I use a six digit broker which trades 1/10 of a pip, & on the trading platform it calls one tenth of a pip 1 pip.
I guess it's slightly confusing if one person calls 100th of a cent a pip and someone else calls a thousandth of a cent a pip.
But once it has been explained what is meant, is it worth going on about it forever & a day.
  • #60
  • Jul 19, 2014 2:10am Jul 19, 2014 2:10am
@ hanover

Exactly no mathematical strategy can beat roulette. Because you don't predict where the ball is going to land. With physics you can, almost nobody knows this.
Good friend of my made a roulette computer that does the calculations.
Inserted Video


Forex is not 50/50 it is not random at all. But you can make your entries random and close them consistantly with rules, forex doesn't need to be random for that.

@ fugly

Card counting works as hanover says but it is hard and you will need a really long run to be minimal profitable. If those pitbosses see you winning all the time and not losing no matter if you win almost nothing they kick you out.
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