DislikedThe 'odds' are in having a plan, executing it with money and trade management and discipline and confidence. These are the only things we can be fully in control of. A strategy only gives us a directional bias to help us decide which way to trade but as it's based on probabilities we're never going to be in control of the outcome. If we can't control the outcome what does that leave us with? Statistics help but they're no guarantee. Even with a statistically proven profitable system the majority would still lose overall.
funny you mention statistics and probabilities.
let's assume the market is random, you have 1/2 probability of making money on any given trade... let's say you take 3 trades per night. What are the probabilities of you being profitable all three trades?
(1/2)^3 =12.5% or 1/8 that means that the probabilities of you losing at least one trade is 87.5% or 25% of having 2/3 right as 0.5^2.
what does all these mean well you have equally likely probability of being wrong in all trades 12.5% so then the one trade you are profitable needs to cover
1)transaction costs (spread)
2) previous losses
conclusion...................It's harder than it looks !
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