Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Post #25,341
Quote
May 30, 2011 1:13pm May 30, 2011 1:13pm

gart
| Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Member | 240 Posts

Quoting fti

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Oh , is just expression.
i begining hate all these invisible dangers to human life.
We playing too much with all the microbes and invisible forces.

regards

Ignored

FTI great respect for your every word ...

Post #25,342
Quote
May 30, 2011 1:47pm May 30, 2011 1:47pm

tubguy
Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 1,227 Posts

Quoting Fana

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:-). Hi Fti. I am done for today. It wasnt good idea imo to get in... Slow range and i was too big in there... Success, but ugly and tired from that range... so slow...ah.... next time i wont trade holidays.... now i wonder why i did such mistake..

Ignored

Don't feel alone Fana, I played my hand too. Got it slapped! real hard. Glad you came out OK. I had to leave my positions, so placed stops and left. Got hit dead on the pipette!
@142802 exactly. Oh well! I'll be back tomorrow.

Good Trading my friend
Mike

Post #25,343
Quote
May 30, 2011 2:07pm May 30, 2011 2:07pm

Fana
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 1,849 Posts

Quoting tubguy

Disliked

Don't feel alone Fana, I played my hand too. Got it slapped! real hard. Glad you came out OK. I had to leave my positions, so placed stops and left. Got hit dead on the pipette!
@142802 exactly. Oh well! I'll be back tomorrow.

Good Trading my friend
Mike

Ignored

Hi Mike. One day is only one day. Discover what you could do better and try again.
Yeah:-). My generals and commanders was angry with me, because i want it too big...

Post #25,344
Quote
May 30, 2011 2:22pm May 30, 2011 2:22pm

fullperson
| Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 420 Posts

ok makes sense, I usually find that 3:1 was 25% retrace on the thread, I'll check again.

How do you use the open candle for direction? I think the TR was used strictly for vol and not direction?

I find that while we should be in the daily direction, the direction changes on the 5 min and 1hr. I tend to put even the daily out of the way and allow 5min's price movement to determine my direction....I bolded that last part because if what I said is wrong, then I need to fix immediately.

Anyways my question was more focused on timewindow. btw my skype is william.fan7 I would really like to talk about the MO

Quoting the redlion

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i dont know if my answer will be good for you, but this is what works for me so far.

i keep in mind the daily TR, to read volatility, usually my charts are set up for me to see the daily candle as it unfolds....

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Post #25,345
Quote
May 30, 2011 2:40pm May 30, 2011 2:40pm

the redlion
Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: split screen view.PNG
Size: 83 KB

to the left is the hourly chart (my brain works in terms of hours)
to the right is the 5 minute ( i dont use the 15 minute, if i count 3, 5 minute candles thats the 15 minute)

the blue area is the daily highs, the red is the daily lows
the green line i plot is the daily open price for reference.
if price is below the open the candle will look red correct?
if price above the candle will look blue.

it helps me know how price is trading in relationship to the daily

if i explained it correctly, you should be able to see, the daily candle unfolding before you

my very faint, gray SMAs (i make them faint so i dont see them unless i want to)
is the houly sma and the daily sma (sometimes helps)

AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM

Post #25,346
Quote
May 30, 2011 3:46pm May 30, 2011 3:46pm

indianguyinny24
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,972 Posts

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cia...ty-intensifies

Post #25,347
Quote
May 30, 2011 4:09pm May 30, 2011 4:09pm

piccolo
Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts

Quoting the redlion

Disliked

Attachment 709836

to the left is the hourly chart (my brain works in terms of hours)
to the right is the 5 minute ( i dont use the 15 minute, if i count 3, 5 minute candles thats the 15 minute)

the blue area is the daily highs, the red is the daily lows
the green line i plot is the daily open price for reference.
if price is below the open the candle will look red correct?
if price above the candle will look blue.

it helps me know how price is trading in relationship to the daily

if i explained it correctly, you should be...

Ignored

I hope it works for you.. otherwise you are missing the point and clouding your own mind.

Post #25,348
Quote
May 30, 2011 4:13pm May 30, 2011 4:13pm

piccolo
Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts

Quoting tubguy

Disliked

Don't feel alone Fana, I played my hand too. Got it slapped! real hard. Glad you came out OK. I had to leave my positions, so placed stops and left. Got hit dead on the pipette!
@142802 exactly. Oh well! I'll be back tomorrow.

Good Trading my friend
Mike

Ignored

hope is bad for your health in the markets

Post #25,349
Quote
May 30, 2011 4:16pm May 30, 2011 4:16pm

Fana
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 1,849 Posts

Quoting piccolo

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hope is bad for your health in the markets

Ignored

But our accounts are growing, right?

Post #25,350
Quote
May 30, 2011 4:17pm May 30, 2011 4:17pm

luSan
Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Cartographer | 1,981 Posts

Quoting the redlion

Disliked

Attachment 709836

to the left is the hourly chart (my brain works in terms of hours)
to the right is the 5 minute ( i dont use the 15 minute, if i count 3, 5 minute candles thats the 15 minute)

the blue area is the daily highs, the red is the daily lows
the green line i plot is the daily open price for reference.
if price is below the open the candle will look red correct?
if price above the candle will look blue.

it helps me know how price is trading in relationship to the daily

if i explained it correctly, you should be able to...

Ignored

Man, that is very complex.
If you have the sma telling you about PA in relationship to the daily and hourly, what do all these colors do for you?
What is the advantage of counting 3 5M to see the 15M when we just can have the 15< chart in front of your eyes?
I think that less is better.
Cheers.

Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain

Post #25,351
Quote
May 30, 2011 4:19pm May 30, 2011 4:19pm

the redlion
Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts

thanx, ill keep that in mind

FTI can correct me on this but i dont think he meant all technical analysis is bad, i MUST have a naked chart.

i think he meant the way people use it to dictate their decision is erroneous.
i use it in a way that makes sense to me. to help me understand my position in relationship to the daily price movement.

im not saying its the best M.O
im still learning, im a beginner and as socrates said " i only know that i know nothing"

but so far i feel comfortable with it, and it works for me.
i trade according to the developing price, that is how i time my entrances and exits, according to what is happening in the 5 minute chart, not only do i keep in mind, patterns, formations etc but also momentum of price.
my scout does well

next i need to know when to hold, and press the attack. not just keep the scout continuously in profit. but as FTI said, i need to tame my ego

i tend to always achieve what i set out to do, and im very bright guy, so i need to be humble with the market, and not force things. go with the flow and take what it gives

AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM

Post #25,352
Quote
May 30, 2011 4:33pm May 30, 2011 4:33pm

piccolo
Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts

Quoting fullperson

Disliked

hey guys, was re-reading fti's dance sessions when came across this. I think is insight into use of time window and dow theory. If anyone has insight into this, would be appreciated. Post 6127

-my analysis: don't catch shooting stars, if large position and cannot manage cut out. If manageable and trend still in your position, then maybe ok to attempt rescue if volatility is in your favor. Important to check volatility, to make sure that the previous impulse can be corrected. Seems using some rigid formula? I try not to speculate anymore...just...

Ignored

here is the full quote http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2607149

I think it is a very valuable post. Of course you cannot always expect the waves to develop according to plan or count but you should use it as a guide.

Post #25,353
Quote
May 30, 2011 4:41pm May 30, 2011 4:41pm

piccolo
Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts

Quoting the redlion

Disliked

thanx, ill keep that in mind

FTI can correct me on this but i dont think he meant all technical analysis is bad, i MUST have a naked chart.

i think he meant the way people use it to dictate their decision is erroneous.
i use it in a way that makes sense to me. to help me understand my position in relationship to the daily price movement.

im not saying its the best M.O
im still learning, im a beginner and as socrates said " i only know that i know nothing"

but so far i feel comfortable with it, and it works for me.
i trade according...

Ignored

FTI has said many times that you should use indicators like SMA 12 and 48 only when lost. Like if you are asking yourself where is the trend ? (look at daily) It should be obvious even without the SMAs.

Where is resistance / support? Is there a tunnel? Try seeing it without drawing first.

Post #25,354
Quote
May 30, 2011 7:08pm May 30, 2011 7:08pm

fullperson
| Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 420 Posts

yes, I have printed out the full post, but it is hard to dissect. I do not want to have any bad habits so I wanted to see what everybody's opinion was on ATR and time window before I start practice on this subject.

Also, can you elaborate on the tunnel?

In addition, was still wondering about scope. On 5 min rescues can take entire day and half before daily enforces

Quoting piccolo

Disliked

here is the full quote http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2607149

I think it is a very valuable post. Of course you cannot always expect the waves to develop according to plan or count but you should use it as a guide.

Ignored