QF

Got hammered today. Good thing I don't do 'Zen' trading and have a stop loss on every trade.

So what the hell is this? What is going on? Why are European currencies rallying when markets are tanking? What happened to the whole USD as a safe heaven thing? Is US debt getting degraded? Anyone know?

The big bad bear is back (me). Long weekend helped with all the hard core blows I had at the beginning of this month. Feed good and fresh and have brushed all those losses right off.

I took a biiig step back and reviewed the fundamental situation. To summarize what I believe is going to happen fundamentally with two words: Double Dip.

This second dip can pull us into a depression.

Positions: Long USD; Short Futures.

Another losing day. I reduced my long USD exposure, but I have not changed my USD bullish view. Same goes for my index positions.

Overnight market reaction to interest rate statements will tell me alot about whether or not the trend has changed. If we don't see a reversal soon, I will have to throw in the towel on the USD.

Lack of posting is due to trying to stay alive. I am making very few trades recently since I am on a losing streak.

I don't like the current risk on market direction. I believe we are in for a double dip and am waiting for the downtrend to resume before I load up on positions.

I am down around 4% this month and even more since all time equity highs. At least for the last week the equity curve has somewhat stabilized that that level.

I am long Gold and EURUSD. I am going to be shorting USDJPY if it goes up.

The market in July has been absolutely nuts. The only explanation I have been able to find (which I consider very unsatisfactory) is that as soon as hedge funds closed their quarter (Last day of June), a bunch of funds (Paulson being the biggest) have been liquidating positions as clients have been withdrawing funds at record levels.

Fundamentals are looking as gloomy as always. I am long risk, but I am ready to short at the first sight of technicals aligning with fundamentals.

I have not posted my account balances recently, so here is a snapshot:

Keeping the trading volume light.

The only pair who's movement I agree with is USDJPY so I will be shorting it. I am still attempting to buy USD and sell european currencies granted USD weakens just a bit more.