Managed to catch the top on the EURJPY. The top was made at the beginning of the London session. Made some nice profit from that trade. I also got in on the GBPUSD and EURUSD like I was saying. I've already taken some profits off the table on the GBPUSD position. I am long USDCHF too.
Gold is at all time high. SNB is intervening ... my nasdaq position is under water (but I am holding it as I think it is a good hedge) ... Bernanke is talking about raising rates (that can't be good for the EUR or the stock market).
EUR is unable to hold above 1.2 (FOR NOW) so I am holding onto my positions and sitting on my hands until either my stops are hit or my targets...
Not much to report on. I think it has been a good day for most traders as the price has just zigzagged in a preset range. It will probably take off soon. Hopefully in my direction. Below is a view of my fx balances
Well damn. I got stopped out of my EURUSD and USDCHF trades due to a rally which lasted several hours. I guess that was bound to happen sooner or later. I have only one trade still on .. the long index futures one.
I'm going to set up some pending orders to short the majors at a higher price again granted we have some more fake breakouts to the upside.
The week is back heavy with fed idiots speaking (who have lost credibility completely) lies about the state of the word economy and how everything is just peachy. I am going to follow what they say closely and pull the trigger every time the market goes counter trend on their lies.
Trichet kept his mouth shut and that is making Mr. Market happy. Germany's high court rejected a lawsuit that would have blocked the big bail out for Greece and the rest of the EU. ECB is going to continue providing 'liquidity' .. ie buying government bonds. Lack of liquidity in Europe is setting new all time highs. Goldman officially set the EURUSD outlook to 1.15, giving perfect indication that it is time to BUY EURUSD as Goldman gets is wrong 100% of the time. The markets are rallying, all is good in the world. Oh, there was this one guy Soros, saying something about the EUR being only in the initial stages of its decline.
I see this rally as a pull back and I am selling heavily into it. I will be closing most of my positions before the weekend so I hope I time this well.
I am glad that the longer term trend continued this friday. Late thursday night, with CNY numbers out, it wasn't looking pretty. People were looking to take riskier assets again. GBP numbers were a savior: PPI (signaling deflation) and Production (industrial and manufacturing) much worse than expected ... so the GBPUSD (and USDCHF) dropped and I was able to bank a nice profit.
My timing on the EURUSD wasn't all that great. I shorted it couldn't catch the top so the position sits at a small loss. After banking in profits from USDCHF and GBPUSD I have decided to keep EURUSD over the weekend as I don't expect a big gap on friday. I also have long future index exposure which is acting as a good hedge. That position is well in profit as well. So far I have been able to hold the incredible gains from last month and make new equity highs.
Next week looks to be kind of boring. Let's hope we can stay out of trouble.
People did some profit taking on the EURUSD ... than Greek debt was rated junk. A bit late though as that rise in the EURUSD took out my stops. I have set more orders to sell european currencies. I am also still holding on my index future positions.
I am straddling the currencies ... I have pending short positions above current price (in case price continues to rise) and below current price in case price falls. I strongly believe that the next big move in down and I don't want to miss it.
Everything is the same as yesterday. I have way too many long USD positions and I have started to slowly decrease the risk as I am not seeing the movement I have been expecting. I have already reduced my GBPUSD exposure as that pair has dropped in early asian trading and will further reduce exposure before european open.
From a fundamental point of view, nothing has changed for the better in europe... the european currencies will fall, it is just a matter of when.
Made a few pips today on the gbp/usd drop and closed a short usd/jpy with a few pips profit. Nothing exciting to write about. I currently hold no forex positions. I only have index futures exposure. That position is well in profit.
I am slightly up for the month. I would be more than happy to end this wacky month this way, but we have two more weeks to go. Hope I don't lose money in this choppy market.
Starting monday, I am going to take a few more intraday trades as I think it will help reduce my equity curve volatility. The EUR rose this week mostly due to a record number of short covering. The long term trend is still down and I am going to continue attacking it on the short side. _For now_, the "all you can sell" EUR buffet is over so we'll have to pick and choose the trades more carefully and with less leverage.
Oanda publishes past month account results on the 15th of the following month. Here are the results for May. The two fx accounts (one for long trades only one for short trades only) and my interactive brokers account have netted a 10% return in May. This sort of return happens once every 5 years. It is truly a 3 sigma event, but always welcome.
Late post...been busy all day with setting things up for my intraday trading. There is much more action intraday than over night and I want to take advantage of it. Especially during these crazy markets.
The big question is: Risk on or Risk off? I don't know. I am still holding my index long positions and I have added a short USD position, so I guess I am slightly biased toward 'Risk on' trades, BUT, I am not going to give up shorting the EUR. Still looking for good areas to short.
The markets are being absolutely brutal to me. I am still holding onto those damn index long positions but they are now only slightly in profit. My USD short position hit its stop .. I moved the stop up when I saw things were not going well so lost less than I would have had I not moved the stop.
I am surprised that the market has not been able to hold any of the gains it made last week. It has been straight up and down action and for me that has been hard to trade. In these situations the best thing to do is trade less and be as selective as possible so that is what I am going to do.
Tomorrow is FOMC meeting ... I doubt that they will say anything that will further disintegrate the markets, but the Fed has shown that he can't predict the future as since he took office the age of Moderate growth has been anything but moderate.
Fundamentals stay pretty bad. Housing data this morning was worse than expected. States are running out of money (New York, California, etc). Countries are starting to look for 'austerity' measures ... which means reduced government spending, which can't be good since the only real growth for at least the past 3-4 years has come from government spending. If they do not start austerity measures, they would be eaten alive by hungry wolf (known as hedge funds) looking for a fresh kill. Heads you lose, tails you lose, so I think we are in for some pretty tough economic times. Of course the further out one tries to predict macro economic trends and how they will affect markets, the bigger the ego and consequently the worse the predictions.
Today is the first day in a while when I was able to bank some small profits mainly due to my intraday trading. The market still can't make up its mind where to go next and it seems likely to be sucked back down to lows (both indices and the euro) as I see risk trades being taken off the table as the economic numbers are much worse than expected (all time low in new home sales is a good case in point). European countries are trying to make it look like they are implementing serious austerity measures ... doubt it will last ... less government spending --> less jobs --> even more unemployed --> more restless and unhappy population (dangerous for people in power) . In the US mean while, there is a city in California that will dismiss all government services offered by the city to its residents (I think this is just the first of many) and the BP oil spill is going to start taking its economic toll ... stimulus is being withdrawn and all the money spent so far have provided little (if any) economic jump start ... so you have Tea Baggers being backed by the population. If there is anything good happening, I just don't see.
Fundamentally things are getting from bad to worse. I definitely see a double dip in the making. Politicians (Fed included) are running out of tricks.
Not much to report. Trying to stay alive in this choppy market. I am pretty much flat for the week. This weekend there is g20 (greedy 20) meeting ... let's see what happens.
I am over all long risk, but with very very small position sizes because I consider the market too choppy.
While watching the market being stuck, I took a break and went to get the new iphone 4 just like Rob! I am excited about it since it is my first iphone and I already have Interactive Brokers' TWS and Oanda's iphone apps installed and ready to fire off. I don't have to be stuck to the computer screen any longer!
I love playing around with new tech toys. One of my many weaknesses.
I told you I was selling risk yesterday ... boy was I right !! Stock indices closed down more than 3%. EURUSD plunged.
Risk aversion is back with a vengeance. Numbers out of China disappointed big time. If China is slowing down ... US is not jump starting ... Europe is introducing austerity measures and the PIIGS running big budget deficits with bond prices continuously going higher ...
Biggest mistake I made this month was to keep my future index long positions for as long as I did. Bad bad boy.
The quarter is now over and for the SP500 this has been the worst quarter since 2008.
Interest rates are near zero, quantitative easing has only made things worse. Unemployment benefits may not be renewed for the first time when the unemployment rate is as high as it currently is. US's economy is looking more and more like Europe's. So much for the US not being affected by the European problems (wrong again Bernanke & gang). Another stimulus package? Mid term elections are coming up...don't see why not... (although it won't help any...protectionism is the answer .. at least no more free trade nonsense).
So if governments are trying to half spending in half by 2013 and private sector is not hiring (look at the stats) and unemployment benefits are no longer available ... what is going to happen?
NFP is this Friday. That should be fun.
Since yesterday, I am shorting the hell out of the EURUSD. Now we just wait and see what happens.
I will post snapshots of my account balances this weekend.