DislikedYou pretty much nailed the concept here Marsh. Once the outcome is certain, it would be priced into the market within seconds. People like fool would make certain of that. You have to get in before the orders hit the market (orderflow 101) and in this case that means accepting a certain level of risk.Ignored
Do you have a working model you use for entry? If so what does it look like? I know you have mentioned the chart indicating that the market wanted to turn up, is that, combined with your outlook on Greece what caused you to enter long. Are you using more advanced orderflow based micro oriented stratagies to enter, or was it that rounded bottom? Sorry, some loaded questions there.
I've use volume, PA, time and sales, ect to enter my trades. I really like the setups where there is a combination of all these tools telling me the same thing. Ussually a low risk entry with a tight stop is pretty attainable. Anyways, I'm curious what your thinking is when it comes time to lay down your cash.