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The System (Irony included)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Nov 22, 2011 7:40am Nov 2, 2007 2:58pm | Edited Nov 22, 2011 7:40am
Update 11-22-2011

Guys.

I am actively trading my journal here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post5156030

You're welcome to join. Thanks...




Hello


This not my system. I mean, I don’t create it . It very much a tune with Jesse livermore’s thoughts, I should say with a twist. It’s been used from ages and I personally used this “system” in all markets I trade. I might be possible that somebody else has similar views about the market, anyway for those poor souls following this cournelius system and everybody else, here's something you might try.

But I will charge you something……Do you think this is free??? At the end, I’ll pass you guys, my tab.

First, you need to stay clear off historical indicators. If you need a moving average to tell you where the trend is, you need to go to the very basics of reading a chart.

Hey wait a minute…you’re still gonna be called a trader not an investor ok???? You can collect your profits everyday if you want.

Also I won’t advise on money management. There is plenty of advice this site on that subject.

Capishe??

One more thing – As I mentioned in another post, I am not going to babysit anyone. If you have a question, you better think twice and formulate your question in a valid manner. The whole idea is to put your brain in motion, That’s how I survived the markets to the point I trade for fun and no longer for profits.

Ok let’s get back to the charts

Here’s a plain-vanilla chart of EUR-USD, daily

Can anyone tell me where the trend is??
Attached Image
Peace
  • #2
  • Nov 2, 2007 3:05pm Nov 2, 2007 3:05pm
Ok good. Here some other charts on the same cross – EUR-USD. Take a closer look at these white lines

Can anyone tell me what’s going on at the white lines??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-USD 1.png Size: 16 KB
Peace
  • #3
  • Nov 2, 2007 3:06pm Nov 2, 2007 3:06pm
Ok now that you have an idea what’s going on, this is what I do
1.I follow the trend
2.Go down to 4 hr charts
3.Buy on pullbacks/sell on rallies at the 4 hr charts, keeping an eye on periods of consolidation (white S/R) lines on the daily chart.
4.Sit tight and wait. Or better…close the charts and go do something else and put an alert or something. Have a life.


Ok – how about stop-loss?

I use the daily charts and I position my stop-loss at the low/high of the daily bar, depending where the trend is..You might ask why??

Because every par has an average pip range and you will be closer to that average collocating your stop-loss at the high/low of each bar. As long as the market moves in your favor, trail the stop always looking at the high/low of the daily bar.That way you will give suffice room to breathe on your trade.

I use forex options as to hedge my stops, but that’s a looong story I will show you guys later on if this thread survives.
Peace
  • #4
  • Nov 2, 2007 3:08pm Nov 2, 2007 3:08pm
Ok how about profit target

I personally let the market stop my trade either if I am in profit or not. But you can “scale-out” if you prefer at least you feel like you’re “day –trading”.

There will be a point in which you have to decide between be in and out of the market in short periods of time or be a consistent money-marker. I will let you come to that conclusion by yourself

Either way, if the market turns against me could be two things – a correction or a valid reversal. That’s a whole casserole for a discussion which I am not willing to exchange now. But as a matter of historical numbers, just go back 4-5 years on the EUR-USD and tell me where the historical trend is.
Peace
  • #5
  • Nov 2, 2007 3:09pm Nov 2, 2007 3:09pm
So you’re bored??? I am so sorry

Trading is supposed to be boring my friend

The caisno is more exciting.

Oh here’s the “modest price you will pay for this “system” if it has been helpful to you. I will go by numbers

1 $ if someone makes you feel “exciting” and after a reasonable time ask you for a “donation” – runaway as fast as you can even if you have to leave part of the clothes behind.
2.$ If you get to the profitland – please help free of charge at your fellow-neighbor trader. After all, there’s plenty of money in ALL markets for everyone willing to gets his/her hands dirty.
3$ Don’t over-complicate trading. Deal with it. Make it simple…and BORING
4$ Stop trying systems after systems, after systems, looking for something that “works most of the time”….bullshit!!! you’re unconsciously looking for the holy grail.
5$ stop relying on others and start to develop your own point of view about this business.

If I’ve been helpful to you, the above will be the price you’ll pay

Cheers
Peace
  • #6
  • Nov 2, 2007 4:38pm Nov 2, 2007 4:38pm
This is great, Feb!!!
I'll work with this over the weekend.
There is also some excellent advice in that last post:-)

Thank you
  • #7
  • Nov 2, 2007 4:44pm Nov 2, 2007 4:44pm
Thank you Feb!

You have some excelent advise. I couldn't agree more with you.
Specially: "get a live"
Beeing glued in front of the monitor for 12 hours a day cannot be the goal!
  • #8
  • Nov 2, 2007 5:39pm Nov 2, 2007 5:39pm
Thanks

I'll be happy to help
Peace
  • #9
  • Nov 3, 2007 2:54am Nov 3, 2007 2:54am
Hi feb2865

It has been a while since I have seen such an honest, experienced trader post anything on these forums. I must say thank you for your honesty and help. I have been trading full time for about 8 months of which 6 months was on demo and so far so good. But the longer I trade the more I realise that indicators are not worth it. I do not fall for the argument that you will loose and that your winning trades have to be more than your losing trades. I try NEVER to loose and sometimes I have given up on a winning entry as I was scared of losing, but so far I only had one losing trade in 2 months (real account) which also would have been winning trade if I didn't panick.

Enough about me, I wish I could learn more about the way you trade. The focus in the forums are mostly on systems and indicators and the important things like S/R and trend lines get neglected. Even some of the threads dealing with S/R or trend lines try to make it into some kind of system. I do not believe in a system, but rather a methodology. A system is too rigid.

My point is if you can find the time to help traders like me it will be greatly appreciated. My skills about drawing trend lines and S/R has been greatly neglected and a good couch is needed to get them going again. I trade on the 4 hour charts and I look at the daily charts to get the main direction. I must confess that I still use indicators, but only on lower time frames to confirm entries, but the longer I go on with them the more I doubt their usefulness. I recently got an pdf from the forum written by Pring on Peaks and Troughs which I found quite interesting. I post is here for those interested.

Anyway, thank you for your comments so far and looking forward to much needed assistance in the future

farimir
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Peaks_and_Troughs_Pring.pdf   181 KB | 7,813 downloads
  • #10
  • Nov 3, 2007 8:43am Nov 3, 2007 8:43am
Quoting farimir
Hi feb2865

It has been a while since I have seen such an honest, experienced trader post anything on these forums. I must say thank you for your honesty and help. I have been trading full time for about 8 months of which 6 months was on demo and so far so good. But the longer I trade the more I realise that indicators are not worth it. I do not fall for the argument that you will loose and that your winning trades have to be more than your losing trades. I try NEVER to loose and sometimes I have given up on a winning entry as I was scared of losing, but so far I only had one losing trade in 2 months (real account) which also would have been winning trade if I didn't panick.

Enough about me, I wish I could learn more about the way you trade. The focus in the forums are mostly on systems and indicators and the important things like S/R and trend lines get neglected. Even some of the threads dealing with S/R or trend lines try to make it into some kind of system. I do not believe in a system, but rather a methodology. A system is too rigid.

My point is if you can find the time to help traders like me it will be greatly appreciated. My skills about drawing trend lines and S/R has been greatly neglected and a good couch is needed to get them going again. I trade on the 4 hour charts and I look at the daily charts to get the main direction. I must confess that I still use indicators, but only on lower time frames to confirm entries, but the longer I go on with them the more I doubt their usefulness. I recently got an pdf from the forum written by Pring on Peaks and Troughs which I found quite interesting. I post is here for those interested.

Anyway, thank you for your comments so far and looking forward to much needed assistance in the future

farimir
Thanks for replying farimir

There's plenty of traders outhere looking for a "signal" that spits "buy/sell" with a dollar $ at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately, we have no choice but to rely on the past. But if we take the "averages of the past" in order to generate buy/sell signals, your trading will be affected in the long run therefore you equity curve will be diminish.

Yes you can make money off historical averages and stuff. But for how long??

Don't you think would be better to educate yourself as the following:

1) why the market moves like this??
2) what are the forces that moves (shifts) the markets between supply and demand??

I am not a fundamentalist. But I keep my ear on the ground. Forex is greatly affected by events, probably more than any other market. So you must have a little bit of both or at least create a balance.

A word about trendlines and S/R lines -

They're good as long as you use them as simply as guides. Yes this sound as a contrarian of the popular believe but I've try many times up and down and in my experience they're good as simply guides.

Trendlines, fibos, pivot points. S/R lines, etc are great indicators to show you in what shape the market is. I use S/R lines to identify bull flags and consolidation patterns. Not rocket science and if you see the second chart I posted, it shows consolidation periods.

If I trade off them?? no way

I trade off weakness/strength = pullbacks and rallies - in other words = price. But the pullback- rally need to be comfirmed by a continuation pattern. Some people buy on pullback just to see the market going down another 200 points . I prefer to leave some money on the table, just to make sure the market has intention to resume what it left behind. Hope you understand what I am talking about.


I will post more My daughter is bugging me on the phone...nah just kiddin' hahahahah
Peace
  • #11
  • Nov 3, 2007 8:50am Nov 3, 2007 8:50am
Not to be sarcastic but hey you've just discovered support and resistance :-p
  • #12
  • Nov 3, 2007 12:49pm Nov 3, 2007 12:49pm
feb2865

Thank you for your response. I'm sort of getting where you are going. I must tell you that I do not like fundametals at all, but I also do sort of keep my ear to the ground. Mainly reading my brokers fundamental notes etc which is ok. I agree with you on trend lines, S/R lines etc that they only assist in trading and can't be the reason for buying or selling because they are simply not reliable enough (just like indicators RSI. MACD etc). It is exactly with the reason for buying or selling and exactly what triggers this that I need help with. At the moment I do not stick to one or even two things, I just trade when I think I need to which isn't the best (this sounds worse than it is).

I like that you say you trade on price and on a pullback and I would like to learn from you how you decide that something is a pullback and when is it trend change. I know one can use fibo lines, price patterns, S/R lines , fundamentals etc, but how do you do it. If you are in the market for such a long time you must be doing something right and you are not messing with a demo like most other people posting systems.

Anyway, just a few thoughts.
  • #13
  • Nov 3, 2007 2:28pm Nov 3, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting farimir
feb2865

Thank you for your response. I'm sort of getting where you are going. I must tell you that I do not like fundametals at all, but I also do sort of keep my ear to the ground. Mainly reading my brokers fundamental notes etc which is ok. I agree with you on trend lines, S/R lines etc that they only assist in trading and can't be the reason for buying or selling because they are simply not reliable enough (just like indicators RSI. MACD etc). It is exactly with the reason for buying or selling and exactly what triggers this that I need help with. At the moment I do not stick to one or even two things, I just trade when I think I need to which isn't the best (this sounds worse than it is).

I like that you say you trade on price and on a pullback and I would like to learn from you how you decide that something is a pullback and when is it trend change. I know one can use fibo lines, price patterns, S/R lines , fundamentals etc, but how do you do it. If you are in the market for such a long time you must be doing something right and you are not messing with a demo like most other people posting systems.

Anyway, just a few thoughts.

Ok

I look at what's been going on historically on whatever I decide to trade

Just go back in time ...ask yourself what's been going on at the EUR/USD since x amount of time...lets say 5 years back??

well, I believe you found an answer. Now look at ALL the pullbacks and tell me exactly when th EUR/USD had a reversal in that period

How often does occur??

So based on the information above...on what side you should be in???

Listen, none is capable to predict where the market is moving next. We can only make an educated guess. We just need to improve our odds and play them accordingly. As simple as it looks people STILL insist to look for an off/on button that spits dollars like hotcakes. It doesn't exist.


Another thing to consider: Big players are looking into "key prices"

Like...EUR/USD - 1.45 OR 1.50 maybe???

Dow jones at 14,000

S&P 500 AT 1500

ETC

Another thing I look for is intermarket relationship

I.E Crude Oil - USD/CAD

USD/JPY - Mini dow (YM) or any of the e-mini's for that matter

Just to keep your head up. Please don't mistake like some people do...trading withe oild is up or down for instance

you trade only price

cheers
Peace
  • #14
  • Nov 4, 2007 2:59am Nov 4, 2007 2:59am
Quoting compro99
Hi Feb,

Would love to know more of above.. thanks.
Me too, I think I'm still missing the point.
  • #15
  • Nov 4, 2007 6:48pm Nov 4, 2007 6:48pm
These are the systems that perdure in time. Common sense, simplicity, and knowing what is happening with the pair.

Could you post a 4hr chart to see the way inwhich you see your pullbacks?

Thanks Feb.
  • #16
  • Nov 4, 2007 7:32pm Nov 4, 2007 7:32pm
I'm enjoying your observations....looking forward to more.
  • #17
  • Nov 4, 2007 8:30pm Nov 4, 2007 8:30pm
Quoting alcastro
These are the systems that perdure in time. Common sense, simplicity, and knowing what is happening with the pair.

Could you post a 4hr chart to see the way inwhich you see your pullbacks?

Thanks Feb.
I am going to make your life even easier. Just follow me on this

let's start with a very simple trendline on the daily charts


The blue "down" lines are for corrections - well a fancy way of calling a pullback

anyway note the depth of these corrections - some of them are shallow while others are deep, like the first one.

but there's a problem

how to avoid...or better to say, minimize my risk of getting caught up in a correction for 200-400 ticks???

stay tuned
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-USD.jpg Size: 94 KB
Peace
  • #18
  • Nov 4, 2007 9:08pm Nov 4, 2007 9:08pm
Let's take the first correction - ended on August 16 2007

Notice the candle (you can use bars fireworks or whatever makes you happy) that says "look at this bar"

what happened to the high of the preceding day??

it was taken right???


kinda of a small rough ride afterwards in my opinion. But it's ok

so if the higher/high of ....let's call it the "reversal candle" ( oh boy I sounded like a guru LOL...of course I am not)
and you know the trend is up (despite the deep correction...I mean commo'n you know the trend was up after the correction rigth???)

so with this scnenario...what you should do??

A: Watch CNBC to comfirm if you should trade

B: Throw some stochs or big mac's to "confirm the trend" and then trade

C: Consult the tarot cards to see if you should trade

D: keep looking for another "system" to comfirm what you already see

E: Place your stop-loss accordingly AND GET ON THE DAMM MARKET!!!

but hey...we're not done yet

ok go ahead and get the popcorn...the microwave is beepin' ....don't let it burn






just tell me what happened with the market next???

A: Did the trend continued??

B: or not??


Ok go back to the previous chart and look closely to the next correction after this one

and the next one

and the next one

I gotta rest for tonigth guys...if you're interested we can continue tomorrow....there's more

peace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-USD 2.jpg Size: 80 KB
Peace
  • #19
  • Nov 4, 2007 9:15pm Nov 4, 2007 9:15pm
I forgot

Yes...how to lesser your risk on corrections

just look at the the post before

The market must show intentions to re-establish the trend

meaning

a break of the higher/high or a lower low

let the market come to papa - don't go chase it...

stay put. Wait for the break

that's why I wanted to show you the "reversal bar" and what happened afterwards..

I refine my entries on the 4 hour charts ( for you alcastro)

just to get a better deal (price speaking)

I'll go in more details tomorrow

Peace
Peace
  • #20
  • Nov 4, 2007 9:32pm Nov 4, 2007 9:32pm
Great thread, Feb.

Looking forward to learning more from you. Thank you for sharing your prudence & wisdom.
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