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"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

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  • Post #60,281
  • Quote
  • Nov 9, 2019 11:12am Nov 9, 2019 11:12am
  •  antmindset
  • | Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 278 Posts
Quoting fti
Disliked
https://youtu.be/oDvYLJBffNk Can't find peter paul mary jesus christ Kingston ssd instead. https://youtu.be/bI3QVsW30j0
Ignored
Taking time to understand it. pls give me sometime master FTI
  • Post #60,282
  • Quote
  • Nov 9, 2019 2:38pm Nov 9, 2019 2:38pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 17,886 Posts
Wah tier 1 names.

"Italian court convicts Deutsche Bank, Nomura in Monte Paschi derivative trial" - http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ita...-idUKKBN1XI1XR
  • Post #60,283
  • Quote
  • Nov 9, 2019 2:46pm Nov 9, 2019 2:46pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 17,886 Posts
Dog's life.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1396...0290362027573/
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  • Post #60,284
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  • Nov 9, 2019 5:35pm Nov 9, 2019 5:35pm
  •  indianguyinny24
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,972 Posts
Quoting Jacque
Disliked
{quote} hi, yes. scout size is calibrated in relation to capital. it should be halved. Trading at the same size as before will: 1. put you in twice the amount of risk of PnL loss 2. exponential increase in the risk of ruin if you are barely successful (51% win), share with you my chart for basic illustration of concept in a coin toss game. the proper simulation for trading risk is much complex but will come to same conclusion. up or down is 50:50. with experience read market, maybe 51% get correct. with insider info, 100% but you need go jail. that...
Ignored

Too much data...less dance....we came here to dance not to try to figure how many times i step this toe in front of that and will fall down...

falling is easy lever 50X go ALL in any trade...you will fall...rest all is math jumbo...

where is the dance......???

V
  • Post #60,285
  • Quote
  • Nov 9, 2019 9:35pm Nov 9, 2019 9:35pm
  •  Jacque
  • | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Member | 938 Posts | Online Now
Quoting indianguyinny24
Disliked
{quote} Too much data...less dance....we came here to dance not to try to figure how many times i step this toe in front of that and will fall down... falling is easy lever 50X go ALL in any trade...you will fall...rest all is math jumbo... where is the dance......??? V
Ignored
hi, what is your point in relation to me helping Ant to understand the concept of managing scout size due to risk of ruin? If you have another way to illustrate, pls share.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • Post #60,286
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  • Edited at 4:18am Nov 10, 2019 3:57am | Edited at 4:18am
  •  phil13
  • Joined Jul 2011 | Status: an ant working the structure | 2,178 Posts
my view on this is......

It states here that scouts are expendable.

If you can not or have to think about killing a scout then ..

1. Your sizing is wrong (scout to full trade size).
2. you have mindset problems and do not understand the value of the scout.
3. You have misunderstood what is here and so you are not listening to your scouts.
4. All of the above is an issue for you.

Regards

Phil.

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edit/add..

AOW...

4. Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and
conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge.
5. Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; it cannot be obtained
inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation.
6. Knowledge of the enemy’s dispositions can only be obtained from other
men.
7. Hence the use of spies, of whom there are five classes:
(a) Local spies;
(b) inward spies;
(c) converted spies;
(d) doomed spies;
(e) surviving spies.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
1
  • Post #60,287
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  • Nov 10, 2019 6:54am Nov 10, 2019 6:54am
  •  Jacque
  • | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Member | 938 Posts | Online Now
Quoting dardar
Disliked
{quote} Hi, Jacque. I learn a lot from your post, thank you Sir. Yes, Sir. Of course, I supposed in demo account only, . Don't try this LIVE.. FTI is trying to help him to tame the stubborn bias mind (scorpion) first, by lowering the capital. That's the fastest method to face his scorpion. That's what I thought. Maybe I am wrong. Regards,
Ignored

Hi,

we are online friends. no need address me sir. i am glad it helped you.

demo or not, it is a training to take it as though it is real. what you suggest will encourage excess risk taking on a already disoriented mindset which will further disoriented it. just imagine the f1 driver just crashed his car, he will need to rest to forget the incident and rehabilitate on small steps to come back to his peak.

rehabilitation MO is on thread. read it carefully
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • Post #60,288
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  • Nov 10, 2019 9:29am Nov 10, 2019 9:29am
  •  dardar
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 30 Posts | Invisible
Quoting Jacque
Disliked
{quote} Hi, we are online friends. no need address me sir. i am glad it helped you. demo or not, it is a training to take it as though it is real. what you suggest will encourage excess risk taking on a already disoriented mindset which will further disoriented it. just imagine the f1 driver just crashed his car, he will need to rest to forget the incident and rehabilitate on small steps to come back to his peak. rehabilitation MO is on thread. read it carefully
Ignored
Hi, Jacque,

I agree
But IMHO...
Different disease, different medicine.
对症下药 how to say in English? "to suit the remedy to the case" . Is it? Google translate . Is most effective and important.

Let's ask the doctor in charge

Cheers,
  • Post #60,289
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2019 9:50am Nov 10, 2019 9:50am
  •  antmindset
  • | Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 278 Posts
This is not a GAME. trading for living is serious business. BASICs are must.

i got these 3 in last 2 days. i knew them but have this in the blood now.

regards
Ant
  • Post #60,290
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  • Edited at 11:22am Nov 10, 2019 11:03am | Edited at 11:22am
  •  dbrown101
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 239 Posts
Hello ant,

I know I wasn't asked to review this but I thought I'd give my two cents as I felt I had a good "read" on these moves as I traded of these legs down rather succesfully.

Fti and all , please correct me if my analysis is off.

this was my thought process for these trades.

Daily trend is down. The major trend on daily is down. the intermediate move we are in is still down (although the last minor high was taken out there is no higher low yet confirming an intermediate movement up). This last week was a minor move to the downside where the double tops that I highlighted in blue cued me to that possibility. I know that the analysis of all these trends are far out of our time scope but it helps me to know the possibilities and probabilites by knowing which move we are in and where we are in that move.
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that was looking at daily trend so now on to her "form".
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from looking at your chart I see that first buy you place was around the support that I highlighted with a blue box on my daily chart. given that there was no bottoming formation on the hourly (signaling that support was going to hold) any longs there, if attempted, should have been nimble and swift with position sizes reduced and only foreign cap to risk as all the pressure was downwards for the euro.

given that you traded a corrective move to the upside, I wouldve been cautious and ready to flip with the trend and follow to the downside where I highlighted on your chart(or most likely sooner given the other factors).

on your second buy in you were again buying into a corrective move against trend where a minor double top appeared signaling that corrective move may be over and another impulsive move to the downside would continue

remember fti quote "swift rubberband snap backs in direction of trend and slow puffy moves countertrend"?


as for sellx10 on your chart i wouldve left that in (depending on capitalization and reserve ammo for rescue) or reduce size and go into rescue mode with my cut loss being where those minor tops I highlighted the end of the corrective move. this meaning that you are rescuing with down trend still in tact. this is all depending on how much loss you booked on those buy positions(ex: how much foreign cap? account size/position size? can I afford these maneuvers?) or if you flipped where I highlighted.

Its hard to explain because of the endless possibilities/scenarios. Its also easier to see these things from hindsight and much harder to follow in the now but these were generally my thoughts/ plans during these moves.

I know this was a long winded post (i said Id give my two cents but it ended up being $10 bucks)
This is why it is important to have a good foundation in Dow theory(edwards/mcgee) and BASIC elliot(impulse/corrective). It seems complicated at first and that a lot of thought goes into a trade but im realizing it becomes second nature (most of the daily analysis just falls to the back of the mind because it doesnt change very fast) and all of it becomes pacing the moves and flowing with her.

lastly here is a decent article on identifying impulse/correctives. although wave characteristics can mutate and change. this is why we have money management and MO.
https://2ndskiesforex.com/trading-st...nd-corrective/
  • Post #60,291
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2019 11:50am Nov 10, 2019 11:50am
  •  antmindset
  • | Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 278 Posts
Quoting dbrown101
Disliked
Hello ant, I know I wasn't asked to review this but I thought I'd give my two cents as I felt I had a good "read" on these moves as I traded of these legs down rather succesfully. Fti and all , please correct me if my analysis is off. this was my thought process for these trades. Daily trend is down. The major trend on daily is down. the intermediate move we are in is still down (although the last minor high was taken out there is no higher low yet confirming an intermediate movement up). This last week was a minor move to the downside where the...
Ignored
Many many thanks dbrown.

I am gald to see such a positive energy here. Thank you for your detailed analysis. i really appreciate your writing.

i am searching within, why i did what i did. and now when looking back, i am saying is it me.

FTI is always right, we do not know ourselves and our scorpions. Need to know them well and live togather.

here is something i found.
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  • Post #60,292
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2019 12:12pm Nov 10, 2019 12:12pm
  •  dbrown101
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 239 Posts
Quoting antmindset
Disliked
{quote} Many many thanks dbrown. I am gald to see such a positive energy here. Thank you for your detailed analysis. i really appreciate your writing. i am searching within, why i did what i did. and now when looking back, i am saying is it me. FTI is always right, we do not know ourselves and our scorpions. Need to know them well and live togather. here is something i found. {image} {image}
Ignored
Ant,

no worries my friend. Many people here have showed me the same kindness and I am just returning the favor. Hopefully I articulated everything clearly as there are lots of things that go into the trading decision process. I am still on my path to learning as well. Maybe others can chime in if my analysis is incorrect but as I said before... I felt I had a good feel of these moves as I traded them.

also, if it’s any consolation, I too wanted to trade north at your first buy. After realizing my reasoning behind this want was just the fact that there was previous support there I decided against it as there were no signs of bottoming/reversal on hourly and also price had broken that support and then lethargically moved back above it showing no real buying there... at least for me. Although there are ways of scalping these distribution/accumulation phases. Using foreign cap as a buffer.
  • Post #60,293
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2019 3:30pm Nov 10, 2019 3:30pm
  •  GEfx
  • Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 2,908 Posts
Quoting dbrown101
Disliked
Hello ant, I know I wasn't asked to review this but I thought I'd give my two cents as I felt I had a good "read" on these moves as I traded of these legs down rather succesfully. Fti and all , please correct me if my analysis is off. this was my thought process for these trades. Daily trend is down. The major trend on daily is down. the intermediate move we are in is still down (although the last minor high was taken out there is no higher low yet confirming an intermediate movement up). This last week was a minor move to the downside where the...
Ignored
I always enjoy reading other people's market analysis, so thanks for sharing yours. I've been following this discussion since ant's post. IMHO, his initial buy deployment was a prudent move, and a good use of a scout. Had I been awake at the time, I'd have been looking for a better buy entry, but his initial impulse to buy seems reasonable to me. As you pointed out, however, that scout should have been on a very short rope. The break of that first support was the first sign that the scout was lost in action. Cut it there and re examine the battlefield. One dead scout, 10 or 25 pips lost, and a whole new perspective come into view. This was a great trading situation that warranted a strong attack, which I did, too. Perhaps a lesson to learn here: don't risk your army to fight a battle that you're losing. Only risk your army as you are routing the enemy, but even then be prepared to leave the battlefield quickly.
1
  • Post #60,294
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2019 4:55pm Nov 10, 2019 4:55pm
  •  dbrown101
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 239 Posts
Quoting GEfx
Disliked
{quote} I always enjoy reading other people's market analysis, so thanks for sharing yours. I've been following this discussion since ant's post. IMHO, his initial buy deployment was a prudent move, and a good use of a scout. Had I been awake at the time, I'd have been looking for a better buy entry, but his initial impulse to buy seems reasonable to me. As you pointed out, however, that scout should have been on a very short rope. The break of that first support was the first sign that the scout was lost in action. Cut it there and re examine...
Ignored
Gfex,

I also enjoy reading others take on the market. I think there was reason to attempt long around that area. I guess I was highlighting what my stance wouldve been...as you said, keeping that scout on a very short rope and if adding to the position to keep sizes smaller than if you were attempting a with trend movement. Extra nimble so to speak. My thoughts are in line with yours.

cheers
1
  • Post #60,295
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:43pm Nov 10, 2019 6:31pm | Edited at 6:43pm
  •  Jacque
  • | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Member | 938 Posts | Online Now
Quoting dardar
Disliked
{quote} Hi, Jacque, I agree But IMHO... Different disease, different medicine. 对症下药 how to say in English? "to suit the remedy to the case" . Is it? Google translate . Is most effective and important. Let's ask the doctor in charge Cheers,
Ignored
Hi,

You sounded convenient. How about you throw someone who have just drowned in the swimming pool, now into the open sea?

how about you now trade 10x the size u did? Keep same scout size, now reduce ur capital to 10%. Sure max pressure , 1 small move in market will blow ur lid.

after 10 years and 3000 pages of thread. You have the cheek to ask the doctor how to stay alive? Did u read how fti spread butter on his dealers when they crashed , what about green_david crash?

how do you obey with the 3 rules? If the trading risk is not reduced corresponding ?

which thread did u read? It is not AOW, It is not FTI’s MO.

be careful u cut urself.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • Post #60,296
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:30pm Nov 10, 2019 7:24pm | Edited at 8:30pm
  •  dardar
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 30 Posts | Invisible
Quoting Jacque
Disliked
{quote} Hi, You sounded convenient. How about you throw someone who have just drowned in the swimming pool, now into the open sea? how about you now trade 10x the size u did? Keep same scout size, now reduce ur capital to 10%. Sure max pressure , 1 small move in market will blow ur lid. after 10 years and 3000 pages of thread. You have the cheek to ask the doctor how to stay alive? Did u read how fti spread butter on his dealers when they crashed , what about green_david crash? how do you obey with the 3 rules? If the trading risk is not reduced...
Ignored
Good morning Jacque
Happy Monday all,

Please read this, what fti quote in response to ant's post :

"Throw away this demo.
Srart again another demo 50%less capital.
I want you under more intense pressure.
Will teach you never do thesame mistake again.
See the suffering involve now just to come to beark even par.
Regards
Be forewarned, if you still not disciplined, from 50%down, you may not make it in time to hospital."

50% less capital, if initial capital is 10k then reduce to 5k is it?
if in 10k acc, you open 1 lot then 2 lot then 4 lot. tell me is it the same if you half down capital and the lot size.
5k acc, you open 0.5 lot then 1 lot then 2 lot. Or is there something I missed?

The point, fti is trying to teach disciplined here...
Are we on the same page, brother?

Cheers,

I am just a stupid old newbie, brother. Please go easy on me
  • Post #60,297
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2019 8:38pm Nov 10, 2019 8:38pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 17,886 Posts
Hahahahahaha

Inserted Video


Why is life so....... Ok.
Wait for chewing gum.
Hahahaha
regards.

Eeer huh? ??
Where are all the idiots from?
I am over whelmed.
Maybe google is drowning.
They employing monkeys.
Ok no one use web browsers anymore?
Which zoo these animals from?
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1
  • Post #60,298
  • Quote
  • Edited at 9:04pm Nov 10, 2019 8:48pm | Edited at 9:04pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 17,886 Posts
Any one know of any good video host.
Pls advice me.
Their arrogance sucks.
Too rich already.
Hope more govts fine them till they poor again.

F their SORRY. .
Rich dictators..... Big dick.
Lets make them small bananas again.
Thecoriginators all bailed out took profits left dicks running the shell. Investors beware.
The stock code is.....



Regards
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  • Post #60,299
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2019 9:07pm Nov 10, 2019 9:07pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 17,886 Posts
Where have all your money gone.
Long time passing.........


Likely desperado..
Watch on other sites ban youtube.
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  • Post #60,300
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  • Nov 10, 2019 9:40pm Nov 10, 2019 9:40pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 17,886 Posts
https://vimeo.com/131084222
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