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Money maker machine! 24 replies

The Volume Detective 411 replies

Attachments: MM (Money Maker) Detective Indicator
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MM (Money Maker) Detective Indicator

Quoting Robot Trader
Possible way to trade reversals and or pullbacks 1) Use H4 chart to see if the market is Ranging or Trending (screenshot shows PA moving upwards not breaking below dotted Mean Line) 2) M15 look for pullbacks into the White Lines) 3) Extra filter would be MACD divergence. 4) Wait for candle to close above White Line in direction of the Mean TP would be based on your own R:R Management. If H4 chart shows the market is Ranging (no real Trend) PA crossing the Mean from both directions many times, then it is more likely that you could take reversal trades...
low volume
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Always respect other peoples beliefs, and never impose your beliefs on othe
Quoting thisara1
{quote} low volume {image}
@thisara1 -- thanks, but this doesn't really help in terms of distinguishing between a signal and a false positive.

Using the IRUTM indicator, find a pair that includes a true signal and a false positive. And then overlay your volume chart. Does your volume chart distinguish between the two? In other words, show that it gives the right answer for both a true signal and a false signal.

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The image above is also your chart. I've highlighted a similar reversal, but the volume is high. Is that consistent with your observation?
There is no effort without error or shortcomings (T.R.)
Quoting robots4me
IRUTM TMA Reversal Trading System (Part 5 of 6) This is an important post because I wanted to discuss the weakness of this trading system -- namely, false positives.
Think of the exhaustion areas from the 1m simply as an alert to a POSSIBLE entry rather than something carved in stone to pull the trigger immediately. While it seems as if the 1m entry would give you the best price and the least drawdown, that is not necessarily the case. Waiting for a 15m confirmation may not give you quite as many pips, but it can limit your drawdown and keep you from entering into strong momentum. Even something as rudimentary as going up to the 5m and waiting simple 1-2-3 top/bottom will keep you from entering into strong momentum.

As long as you have a broker and a pair with decent spreads (ECN preferably), you can wait for some type of confirmation of a strong reversal rather than it just being a small continuation pullback. Once you are positive 7-10p, lock in your trade with a BE/+1 and if the market is not quite ready for you, you'll have another opportunity to jump on the train.

Think like a prop shop trader and aim for larger position sizes not more pips.
Quoting thisara1
{quote} low volume {image}
Hi thisara1,

Your Indicator shows a number of areas of low volume before the one you have pointed out, so what would trigger the trade for you and your Strategy at that particular candle?

Would you have entered the trade earlier based on the low volume and then added to that trade based on the volume remaining low or do you have a filter/rule that makes you not enter a trade just because you see low volume?

I am interested to know how you view your chart and thank you for sharing

Regards

RT
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @thisara1 -- thanks, but this doesn't really help in terms of distinguishing between a signal and a false positive. Using the IRUTM indicator, find a pair that includes a true signal and a false positive. And then overlay your volume chart. Does your volume chart distinguish between the two? In other words, show that it gives the right answer for both a true signal and a false signal. {image} The image above is also your chart. I've highlighted a similar reversal, but the volume is high. Is that consistent with your observation?
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Always respect other peoples beliefs, and never impose your beliefs on othe
Quoting Scott2locky
{quote} Think of the exhaustion areas from the 1m simply as an alert to a POSSIBLE entry rather than something carved in stone to pull the trigger immediately. While it seems as if the 1m entry would give you the best price and the least drawdown, that is not necessarily the case. Waiting for a 15m confirmation may not give you quite as many pips, but it can limit your drawdown and keep you from entering into strong momentum. Even something as rudimentary as going up to the 5m and waiting simple 1-2-3 top/bottom will keep you from entering into...
@Scott2locky -- yes, you are correct. And you're speaking from the perspective of an experienced trader and applying some discretionary decision making. If you can convert what you just wrote into a set of rules, then it can be coded. The goal is to automate as much of this as possible.

Right now nothing is carved in stone and all options are on the table. The IRUTM indicator is a starting point -- you need a starting point, right? I chose M1 TMA and ADR because that was the take home message I learned from @George's thread. In terms of waiting a certain number of bars, or switching time frames or ??? -- yes, definitely open to that.

Speaking of momentum -- check out my next post in a few minutes...
There is no effort without error or shortcomings (T.R.)
Quoting thisara1
{quote} {image}
@thisara1 -- but isn't the first one also a good BUY reversal?

Can you find a "false positive" and show that volume can be used to distinguish between true signals and false positives?

Or are you saying to ignore M1 TMA and just use volumes?
There is no effort without error or shortcomings (T.R.)
Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} Hi thisara1, Your Indicator shows a number of areas of low volume before the one you have pointed out, so what would trigger the trade for you and your Strategy at that particular candle? Would you have entered the trade earlier based on the low volume and then added to that trade based on the volume remaining low or do you have a filter/rule that makes you not enter a trade just because you see low volume? I am interested to know how you view your chart and thank you for sharing Regards RT
don't follow me friend.
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Always respect other peoples beliefs, and never impose your beliefs on othe
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @Scott2locky -- yes, you are correct. And you're speaking from the perspective of an experienced trader and applying some discretionary decision making. If you can convert what you just wrote into a set of rules, then it can be coded. The goal is to automate as much of this as possible. Right now nothing is carved in stone and all options are on the table. The IRUTM indicator is a starting point -- you need a starting point, right? I chose M1 TMA and ADR because that was the take home message I learned from @George's thread. In terms of...
Once I take a look at the alerts from "IRUTM" (still no idea what the heck that acronym means !), I'll be more than happy to give you a few ideas that could be easily coded into an actual alert for entry. I assume a PM would be best? FX is overnight for me, so for me a bit of automation is necessary in order to not miss trades.

Since the 1m is the starting point of any reversal, we may be able to use it more like a filter and use the 15m for the entry trigger, thus allowing for fewer alerts and for more focus.
Unfortunately another missing piece was left out the moving averages, it was mentioned afew times. The 8,20,200 smooth ma on close by Team A. Trade pullbacks with the trend. So far you have ignored hedging and smooth moving averages.
Quoting thisara1
{quote} don't follow me friend. {image}
@thisara1 -- looks like your chart is a different trading system. Currently I'm not interested -- perhaps later.
There is no effort without error or shortcomings (T.R.)
Quoting Pip-Miner
Unfortunately another missing piece was left out the moving averages, it was mentioned afew times. The 8,20,200 smooth ma on close by Team A. Trade pullbacks with the trend. So far you have ignored hedging and smooth moving averages.
Quote
So far you have ignored hedging and smooth moving averages.
@Pip-Miner -- you give me no credit. Wasn't it a couple of weeks ago you were gleefully predicting the end of this thread? And then you ran over to @George and begged to become a member of his inner-circle?

Regarding @George's 200,20,7 SMAs -- they are used for momentum. He doesn't like using indicators -- especially MT4 default indicators -- so, he would never use the default MT4 Momentum indicator. And since he doesn't consider MA as indicators, then by using the 200,20,7 SMAs he now has his momentum filter and can still claim indicators are useless. Got it?

With regards to me ignoring hedging -- dude, IRUTM is an indicator for generating candidate Entry signals. Hedging falls under money management and comes into play after a position is opened. If I'm wrong, please enlighten me.

Look it -- if you want to help us move forward that would be great. But if your intention is to serve as a dead weight then, well, I don't want dead weight around. Capeesh?
There is no effort without error or shortcomings (T.R.)
Quoting Nih98
Hi Bro @Robots4me/Steve, just little suggestion that maybe could help to 'see' better. If you want to 'specialized' in TF M15 this is how I use TMA bands/for FX RSI and also your ADR Histogram (I use it as daily volatility measurement tool beside BB). GBP/JPY M15 {image} my TMA Band Setting {image} for FX-RSI+MAs, MM-ADRIndi, MM-ADRHistIndi+MAs Setting {image} Have a nice weekend and keep smiling NIH
Hello friend @Nih98 -- I was just now updating the IRUTM indicator and was taking a closer look at your M15 settings -- again, thank you.

I saw that you use 22 for the ADR's number of days to average -- most ADR's use 20 days as the default. I'm now curious as to why you use 22 days?
There is no effort without error or shortcomings (T.R.)
Quoting robots4me
{quote} IRUTM TMA Reversal Trading System (Part 3 of 6) {image} The above screen shot shows the most important elements of the indicator. Again -- a work in progress and we can certainly make changes / enhancements. 1. In the background you see @Nih98's TMA. I like including this because it provides a "context" for the PA -- i.e. can quickly visualize whether the price is trending, consolidating, ranging, etc. 2. The shaded areas represent 0.75 ADR. If you recall @rosalieone's observation, reversals frequently occur within the first 0.75 ADR. 3....

HI R4me,

IMHO your SCALING and PARAMETERS are inadapted to the Price Range you deal with . Roughly they are the DOUBLE of present Price Action volatility within the TimeFrame used; It is the first objective fact.

Price Action fluctuates within the light blue Envelope on your Chart. Curvilinear Lines in Light Blue plays the Role of The Envelopes 256 Time Units I use( in brown) and play the same role : Support, Resistance, Target Price. It is the second objective fact
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Price is a flow of data points subject to the Law of Vibration. Scaling is
All Tools, created to help you. The main problem is, you don't know how to use them. To know how to use them properly, you should understand market structures, and how market moves. For example, @Thisara1, use AMT/MP trading system. He understand how to read that volume base market profiles, and also that HiddenGap tick volume profile that related to liquidity gap. It is related to this thread core but of course will confusing many of us because it will bring us to the wider branch of TA.

So, once again about tools, here I only use R4ME ADRIndi and ADRHistIndi on GBPUSD M15 (with my small adjustment to calibrate its core functions)

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with only using this 2 tools for our references, and understanding how the market moves ( price action, sessions, currencies regional areas, chain reactions, etc) we could make money consistently. couple grants a week is not difficult. Please observe the above chart, and search for constant fractals represent visual momentum.

Will explaining further later, but find for yourself first.

Regards
NIH
Dog + Smile = Beautiful Day
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Hello friend @Nih98 -- I was just now updating the IRUTM indicator and was taking a closer look at your M15 settings -- again, thank you. I saw that you use 22 for the ADR's number of days to average -- most ADR's use 20 days as the default. I'm now curious as to why you use 22 days?
1 month trading days, mathematically calculate as 20 trading days, but in reality, 120 months trading days (10 years) not equal to 2400 days, for correct actual trading days, you could check data from liquidity providers (LMAX, Citi, HSBC, etc), not from your MT4 brokerages data.

Regards
NIH
Dog + Smile = Beautiful Day
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @Pip-Miner -- you give me no credit. Wasn't it a couple of weeks ago you were gleefully predicting the end of this thread? And then you ran over to @George and begged to become a member of his inner-circle? Regarding @George's 200,20,7 SMAs -- they are used for momentum. He doesn't like using indicators -- especially MT4 default indicators -- so, he would never use the default MT4 Momentum indicator. And since he doesn't consider MA as indicators, then by using the 200,20,7 SMAs he now has his momentum filter and can still claim...
Hi Steve, I’m all for progress. When someone finds issues with your current process don’t take it personally. I’ve already automated all this and tested so I know what works. Unfortunately I’m waiting for you to catch up.
I've updated the IRUTM indicator to include a momentum filter. All indicators are bundled in a *.zip file located in the other thread "Custom Indicators for TMA-ADR Reversal Trading and BBMA". Here's a link:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=920925

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In the screen shot above the momentum indicator is shown with the orangish line -- it can be toggled ON / OFF using the button in the lower-right corner. In the screen shot I'm trying show an example of a "false positive" along with two, true signals. The 3 blue vertical lines run through the two purple dots and the one blue dot.

The first purple dot is a false positive and you can see it does not match with the momentum. The second purple dot is a signal and it does match with the momentum. The blue dot is also a signal and matches with the momentum

Using momentum is not perfect. However, @George would always mention it when listing all the filters he applies in addition to the M1 TMA -- so, I give him credit for that. However, now that @George et al know that it is being used by the IRUTM indicator wait for them to say that momentum is useless.

In this version of the IRUTM indicator momentum is NOT being used to compute signals -- it is just a visual cue. If we conclude that momentum really does work well as a filter then I will include momentum when computing signals -- in which case I'd expect the number of false positives to decline.

To implement the momentum filter I used the default MT4 Momentum indicator. @George uses 200,20,7 SMAs for the same effect -- he doesn't like using indicators -- especially MT4 default indicators -- and doesn't consider MA to be an indicator. In any event, I think MT4's Momentum indicator works just fine. If anyone has another suggestion for momentum I'd be happy to consider using that instead.
There is no effort without error or shortcomings (T.R.)
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The screen shot above compares @Nih98's FX RSI subwindow with the built-in Momentum indicator. The results are similar and you can use either one. From a coding perspective it was easier for me to add a Momentum filter to the IRUTM indicator using MT4's indicator.
There is no effort without error or shortcomings (T.R.)
Quoting robots4me
I've updated the IRUTM indicator to include a momentum filter. All indicators are bundled in a *.zip file located in the other thread "Custom Indicators for TMA-ADR Reversal Trading and BBMA". Here's a link: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=920925 {image} In the screen shot above the momentum indicator is shown with the orangish line -- it can be toggled ON / OFF using the button in the lower-right corner. In the screen shot I'm trying show an example of a "false positive" along with two, true signals. The 3 blue vertical...
So what you are saying is Momentum must be moving in the direction of the reversal? When looking at the charts live will it be as obvious, what I mean is does the Momentum indicator lag the PA? Making it only look good on historic charts?
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
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