Hi,

I mean I have my ballpark estimates.. I would say, quickly.. if someone can make 100 full-size (100% account placed per trade) trades, with good leverage, trades to be almost evenly places in the 3-6months... and having like 100% return with max 50% DD... I think I would analyse it further

What would you say is a good

I mean yeah, there are statistical methods... People even play with golden risk:reward ratio... but if you watch closely, this is not a defining edge because otherwise.. one would just put both to almost limits... its like SL0.1 (spread paid) and TP100.. would than seems to give you enormous edge, but it is just not true..

Also some people TRENDSURF... or "see" the pattern that seems to work some of the time or for some time...

How do you know. I mean, I am interesting in your IDEAS and also if anyone of you here is very good in MATH-STAT that could PROVE/estimate the probabilty...

For example what are the odds... counting TREND (help) and all.. that someone can make 300% return with 50% DD, with 100 100% account size trades...

Placing only SHORTS in overall FALL market...

I mean I have seen, as I have said.. beginners that TRIPPLED account, they didn't place SL, so they exposed to margin call... very "unfavorable" risk ratio but in overall.. they did TRIPPLE the accoun in less than 3months... and then a few margin calls came and... OVER...

So please tell me... what would be your GOLDEN parameters to decide or even "KNOW" if someone REALLY have it outside of luck or temp-skill etc...

and if you can really estimate the probability.. For example.. what would be the "lottery" level probability... to make 1000% return with just 10% DD?

I have checked some of the TEs here, in the LeaderBoard and they seem to be outstanding, I wonder what is the real statistics behind it.

Also I have checked some boards on other forums and some have unusual good performance, even too good to be true, at least to me.

I have made more than 2000% return in a series... but I still can not confirm or reject if and how much of it was favorable setup, trends, etc.. and how much of that was THE JUICE..

Also, as some people say that in forex, everyone lose, it is also true that BOTH sides can win... There are many examples, even today.. if two people would place

the order at the same time, setting TP20... (not placing SL).... they would BOTH win... because market could swing to one TP and then to other.. And altough they were both placed TOTALY differently, one LONG one SHORT.. they both seem to "win".. So how do you select the real winner overtime.. By FEEL or by STATISTICAL proof (counting in the risk ratio, number of "trials", trends, "randomness" of NEWS etc.)

In the long run, everything cancels out and it comes down to statistics, so what would be the JUICE level without a doubt or very little.. let's say in a 5-7 sigma certainty? lottery certainty or Higgs boson certainty Well I know the obvious one... Placing 40 100% account sizes at 500:1, TP20, SL20, 100% win rate...

would make you TRILLIONAIRE after 40trades (40 profits, 0 loses)... This is clearly not possible or if someone can make it happen, doesn't matter even if it was just luck at that point But what would be the minimum parameters that you can say... "there might be something" there or "there is" beyond reasonable doubt?

100 trades, 100mio volume, 100:1, 3months+... 100% return, 10% DD?

I mean I have my ballpark estimates.. I would say, quickly.. if someone can make 100 full-size (100% account placed per trade) trades, with good leverage, trades to be almost evenly places in the 3-6months... and having like 100% return with max 50% DD... I think I would analyse it further

What would you say is a good

I mean yeah, there are statistical methods... People even play with golden risk:reward ratio... but if you watch closely, this is not a defining edge because otherwise.. one would just put both to almost limits... its like SL0.1 (spread paid) and TP100.. would than seems to give you enormous edge, but it is just not true..

Also some people TRENDSURF... or "see" the pattern that seems to work some of the time or for some time...

How do you know. I mean, I am interesting in your IDEAS and also if anyone of you here is very good in MATH-STAT that could PROVE/estimate the probabilty...

For example what are the odds... counting TREND (help) and all.. that someone can make 300% return with 50% DD, with 100 100% account size trades...

Placing only SHORTS in overall FALL market...

I mean I have seen, as I have said.. beginners that TRIPPLED account, they didn't place SL, so they exposed to margin call... very "unfavorable" risk ratio but in overall.. they did TRIPPLE the accoun in less than 3months... and then a few margin calls came and... OVER...

So please tell me... what would be your GOLDEN parameters to decide or even "KNOW" if someone REALLY have it outside of luck or temp-skill etc...

and if you can really estimate the probability.. For example.. what would be the "lottery" level probability... to make 1000% return with just 10% DD?

I have checked some of the TEs here, in the LeaderBoard and they seem to be outstanding, I wonder what is the real statistics behind it.

Also I have checked some boards on other forums and some have unusual good performance, even too good to be true, at least to me.

I have made more than 2000% return in a series... but I still can not confirm or reject if and how much of it was favorable setup, trends, etc.. and how much of that was THE JUICE..

Also, as some people say that in forex, everyone lose, it is also true that BOTH sides can win... There are many examples, even today.. if two people would place

the order at the same time, setting TP20... (not placing SL).... they would BOTH win... because market could swing to one TP and then to other.. And altough they were both placed TOTALY differently, one LONG one SHORT.. they both seem to "win".. So how do you select the real winner overtime.. By FEEL or by STATISTICAL proof (counting in the risk ratio, number of "trials", trends, "randomness" of NEWS etc.)

In the long run, everything cancels out and it comes down to statistics, so what would be the JUICE level without a doubt or very little.. let's say in a 5-7 sigma certainty? lottery certainty or Higgs boson certainty Well I know the obvious one... Placing 40 100% account sizes at 500:1, TP20, SL20, 100% win rate...

would make you TRILLIONAIRE after 40trades (40 profits, 0 loses)... This is clearly not possible or if someone can make it happen, doesn't matter even if it was just luck at that point But what would be the minimum parameters that you can say... "there might be something" there or "there is" beyond reasonable doubt?

100 trades, 100mio volume, 100:1, 3months+... 100% return, 10% DD?

Can you afford to take that chance?

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