Harmonic Elliott Wave (HEW)

Here is my HEW update for the EURUSD.

Wellwell... again my bullish view is blown away...
I was expecting a move towards 1,1556.... but in the upmove it stuck at 1,1497. I first thought...oke...now the wave b must come. But the wave continue below the last wave-x...so what is next ...?! Do we finally saw our yellow wave-b at 1,1497...?!

Well then again I have to turn my view to the bearish side!!

So again I expecting a move to the yellow wave-c/iii around 1,0845 - 1,0724.
I expect the current red wave-i around 1,1303-1,1283

But I have to say this move is so quick that I'm not sure if I did find the correct waves at the moment!
I also do not trust my wave-structure from 9nov (@1,1216) until now. I find it really complex....Anyway I have a feel that from 14 dec (@1,1270) I picked up the count again in this upmove. If that is indeed correct then all the chaos before is not important anymore for getting on track again.

So for now I'm just watching the development and hope I'm on the right track again!

Here is a short HEW update after the NFP release fro today.

I believe this is the turning moment for the market...

Hi,

I really change from bullish to bearish per day in this development.... so that is why I have now two possible views.... maybe in the coming days (at leas I hope) it becomes clear to me which one is the real one....

The bearish looks better in terms of the correctness in structure... specially the Purple wave i looks oke here....
But on the other hand the Bullish one looks better in terms of move.... If I look to the ma's I am using it still looks if 1.16 to 1.1650 could be a possibility. But indeed the last (red) efc looks bad in terms of alternation between the intern wave ii and iv from this efc. So if we look to that then this bullish count is not oke....!

I still believe we nee to have to wait for more clearness

Here is my HEW update

Well it looks if the Bullish variant is in progress now... well bullish...it's not really bullish with a max around 1,1534-47 for the yellow wave (b)
If I'm right then we finishing tomorrow a triple zigzag. After that I believe the bears are ready for us....

The current move does not fit in the Bullish variant from yesterday.... it looks more it is fitting in the bearish variant from the day before yesterday....

Let's see what is happening today...if trough then we made a breakthrough here... and we can prepare for real losses in the nearby future...

Here is my HEW update.

Indeed as I already said.... the bullish variant isnt'matching the count anymore. So I think we must now focus on the bearish view. For now it look good...

the orange wave c/iii must be reached around 1,0724-1,0893....
for now the purple wave a/iii must reached around 1,1286.... then a wave-b and from there I think we must really fasten our seat-belts....

Well well...the "unexpected" was happening today.

Last days I already was unsure... and yesterday I tought I had a good feeling... and finally it brought me nothing. Anyway today we broke the 1.1500 and so we still have to tolerate another ABC.... for making a triple....the final yellow wave-b is formed yet.

the ABC started @1.1300... wave-A @1,1558 maybe a little higher (1560-69) and then a wave-B can start possibly around 1,1420-50 (but be carefull it's a wave-b...) then we need a final wave-c to around 1,1670-1,1700 or so

I have a short update.....

below the chart and also my suggestion of where price can go if I'm right...

And again I was wrong with my count.... well I really start to hate this consolidation. Everytime I think I've got the real move it is tricking me out.

Well I'm still bullish with my count. I also know that Ian Copsey is bearish. This is because I have a high on 1st Jan @ 1.1497 and Ian has even seen a high as 1.1597(!). And because of the different highs we have a total different view....

Anyway I still believe in the bullish version .... also because of some MA's in the Daily-chart. On the otherhand I'm missing Alternation between the wave ii and iv in the move down from 1st Jan and that could be suspicious! So it is definitely not said that I'm right with my Bullish view!

oke...that all said => Here is my HEW-update:

I think we then now saw the wave-A, currently running the wave-B towards 1.1413 (100% projection)
From there I believe we need a final last wave-C to around 1.1700

But again....this is how I see it...with a high 1.1497 on 1st Jan.....

Well the last Wave-A in my last update was absolute not correct. It was far to bullish!

Possibly we already saw the wave (A) much earlier @1,1417. that would mean we still in the last move up in this terrible long and difficult correction.
In fact it is possible that we can see our last high around 1,1571-98-20. I do not see a higher high then that...

From now I think we must allow the price a little lower towards 1,1449(?) , 1.1438 looks to far away I think, before we can start our last move up....

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alternative:
an alternative is a bearish variant (I do not prefer it currently). Then we already saw our high at 1,1570. Then we are now in the wave-i....also allow for a little bit lower around 1,1449(?) , 1.1438 looks to far away I think, . Then we must search for the wave-ii....tip 50% retracement is around 1,1510...
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I'm still in conflict with the Bullish and Bearish count.... after the lazy day I really don't see a bullish version in my mind. I can be wrong but my brain says....flip to the bearish count now....

After we reach the 1404 (the wave-a) we must see a wave-b....then the move down must continue to the wave-c/i
This Orange wave c/iii down must ended around 1,0790 - 1,0724

We'll see what tomorrow will happen....

corrective expanded flat abc in play now.
Move back up towards 1.1600/1.1750 seems intact
Will begin loading longs this bounce is also around the 61 fib.
possible downside towards 1.14100 so will start building small positions.

long 1.14295
25 Pip SL.

Stay Green

I don't see an expanded flat....Be carefull!
See the current waves...in excel below

Be carefull.....It is still not clear for me if the last high was 1.1570 or 1.1586....or even 1.1597... there are reports of different highs on 1 jan.....

On my chart I have the 1.1570 on 10 jan as highest high (wave-b)...but on 1 jan the high was 1.1586 or even 1.1597 then this musst be the high... then we are already in wave a/ii.... instead of wave-i (in my case)!!

I can't decide.... so I must prepare with both of them and other indicators...and/or edges

Today it went actually nice.... with the HEW count....

The vote is gone...not much unexpected happened there...
Anyway during the day the EURUSD made a nice move.

See the screenshot and excelsheet with my expected levels.

Not bad at all.....

I think we had a sligthly shorter lightblue wave c/iii. Because of that the wave iv is ended at 1,1411.
Then we can look forward to a move lower. Which I think is ending around 1,1315-1,1292 (I prepare 1,1315)

after finishing this light blue wave (also the darkblue wave a/iii) we can pepare for an up-move where the 50% retracement then is around 1,1430-40

I need to make a correction on my HEW-count from yesterday after the rejection of support 1.1379

I think we already saw our dark blue wave a/iii
That means we need to look for a wave b/iii around 50% rejection (1.1471) But I wouldn't be surprised if this wave-b is a little shorter. So we need to look for an abc and need to follow the intern waves for a better interpretation. Be warned it's a wave-b. They can be tricky. Be prepared for a complex....maybe on monday we can expect a follow through on the down-side. depending what UK will decide about the Brexit dragon...

I get a real conformation of this if my channel is broken on 1H-timeframe (1.1404) a break of 1.1394 would be the first positive indication

During the day the lightblue wave-v dipped a 1pip lower then I thought.

Now I expect a wave-b (a retracement)

I don't have a real clue how deep this gone be.... normally you can say: if a sharp move then we can expect a deep wave-b. But even a normal (around 50%) retracement is already a lot I gues.... just because the expectation is that the darkblue wave c/iii is ending around 1,1003... and with a normal and deep wave-b it is not likely we can reach the 1,1003 in this darkblue wave c/iii..... So in the first place I believe we must expect a short wave-b.

Well I just take this with cautious... I expect an abc at least....and I believe we already saw the wave-a and wave-b...I expect the wave-c around 1,1410-15....

Then this could be it..... or we see a wave-x and again an abc turning this thing again a little higher.... before we can go to the south again....

I'm very satisfied with my last forecast.... It means we are correct with our count!

Well, today we saw the dark blue wave @ 1,1410 and from there we saw, I think the wave a/i from the darkblue wave c/iii.....

so my expectation is a pink wave b/i (around pivot...? @1,1376) and then back down towards the wave-i
For this wave-i I was looking for a possible level.... actually there is no way to calculate this with retracements or so....but For reaching the level in the blue wave c/iii around 1,1003 I tried some possibilities..... and a good possibility is that we see wave-i from around 1,1325 or even a little lower (I also have here a possible resistance line (1H-Chart)).
If I then take the normal/standard ratios/retracements I come to a pink count as seen in the excelsheet (possible pink count) but be careful this just a possible way for reaching the 1,1003. We only could say some more if the wave-i and ii are really formed!!!....actually we need some patient for this....

Well if you see the excelsheet for the blue wave-count you can see that I currently expect a real move down... currently we are around 1,1360-80 and in maybe a few days maybe a week or so...? I expect we are around 1,10xx.... So I think we all need our safety-belts coming for the coming days...maybe weeks.....?

I keep an eye towards the wave-b/i @ 1,1376 and expect the wave-i @ +/- 1,1325...... then a wave-ii upwards...and then I think the nose-dive must occur....

Well it looks if the lightblue wave-a/iii isn't still finished jet. I placedthe wave-i and -ii a little lower then yesterday (the projections looks also a little better). I believe this thing can go to the 1,1310 for finishing the blue wave-a/iii.
After that we need to look for the wave-b/iii. 50% retracement...is around 1,1440 (also sma200 in 1H) could be possible I think. also1.1420 (ema365) could be a hold.

Well we need to follow that retracement for getting more information. But for now I think we still need to go some more down towards the 1,1310-00 level before an retracement can occur.

Well this morning it became clear we yesterday saw the dark blue a/iii @1,1336.

Today we saw a lazy I think triangle.... with finally the break upwards. So I think @ 1,1394 we finished the green abc. Now the question is...what it's gone be? just an abc or do we still need an extra abc to make this retracement a double. I think we need that last one. This is because the dark blue wave-b retracement must I think somewhere between 38,2% to 58,6% that means a minimum of 1,1425 and a possible max around 1,1473? For now the level 1,1394 is just to shy after the long move down....

So I now expect a wave-x (somewhere between 1,1374 - 1,1350) The following RS-Lines are I think good levels to start the new abc @1,1371 or @1,1366 or @1,1358
After that again an abc towards I think 1,1425 - 37 - 55? Well for a better view we need at least the wave-a.....

My current longer view and expectation:
if we see the high here in this dark blue wave-b/iii then the EURUSD is ready to make a nose-dive towards I think 1,1065-35 in wave c/iii.
wave ii had a retracement of 94,41% so I expect a very short wave-iv. If so then his move can speed up towards the I think 1,0806-1,0742(!) what will be the darkblue wave-v....that will give us a little air ........ before ....... the next wave can start. But oke that's to far in the future for now! Let's start with today .....