https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Articles
Elections
By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, October 26, 2018
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd150ac02ab860
The next target week has been highlighted by the computer as 11/05 in line with the elections. That is what this correction has been all about. Today, the key will be 24965 in the Dow, 26767 in the cash S&P for the closing. Do not forget that we also have three different highs. August for the NASDAQ, September for the S&P and October for the Dow. We should thus pay attention to the NASDAQ for here the ideal low was this week of 10/22 - not 11/05. Therefore, if the NASDAQ holds this week's low for the next 2 weeks, look at this as a leading indicator.
We still have this problem of a stock market crash produces the flight to quality as cash runs to bonds. But bonds are in trouble on this cycle so it makes no sense that we are looking at a major correction here in equities just yet. The only way that unfolds is a true Dark Age type meltdown whereby the underlying capital formation is wiped out. We do not appear to be at such a crossroads at this stage.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd150ac02ab898
The S&P Array does show a Directional Change this week. This is why I am warning DO NOT Anticipate electing Weekly Bearish Reversals just yet. Let the market reveal its intentions.
In the Dow, we need a closing BELOW 24965 today to signal a further decline into the elections. Sources are stating that all these packages of fake bombs sent to Democrats may be by a ploy by Democrats to get out the vote. Not a single package exploded. Either it was poorly done or intentional duds that were used for political news. Just very strange.
A closing BELOW 24579 in the Dow today would warn of entering CRASH MODE so that would reflect a sharper decline to test the monthly level of support. A closing today ABOVE 25588, which is unlikely, would signal a cycle inversion and a run to the highs.
The S&P500 the number is 26767 and a closing below that will also point to a potential low going into the elections. To stabilize the market even briefly where we consolidate requires a closing ABOVE 268360 today.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd150ac02ab8e2
When we turn to the NASDAQ, we have fallen back to test the original Uptrend Channel where the top rests at 736693. We reached this week a low at 709900. We ABSOLUTELY need a closing ABOVE 719716 to signal that we "may" have a low in place this week. The more solid number will be 735430. Our Weekly Bearish Reversal here lies in wait at 708482. A closing below that will warn that the NASDAQ may simply be overpowered by the election cycle and head down into the week of 11/05.
Therefore, the numbers to watch today at 24965 in the Dow, 26767 in S&P and 709482 in the NASDAQ. Electing all three and we are in CRASH MODE for the elections. Even a mixed bag would point lower but not a crash type affair just yet. Avoiding ALL three would not relieve the correction, it would signal consolidation.
We do not see this market coming to a decision until after the election.
US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, October 25, 2018
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1513c8baaa71
We can see that the market has fallen to new lows for the week of 10/22 and today is the ideal day for the low this week and we have a Directional Change tomorrow 10/26. The market has plummeted after we elected the Weekly Bearish Reversal back at 25753. The next Weekly Bearish has been penetrated 24965 intraday but we cannot ANTICIPATE that it will be elected just yet come Friday. If we do, then expect a continued decline into the week of 11/05 for the elections which have scared the hell out of major capital. The next Weekly Bearish will actually provide some target intraday support at 24075. The first Monthly Bearish lies at 23995. The Monthly Bearish that would signal a bear market into 2020 and a cycle inversion with a flip out back up thereafter into 2032 would be indicated by a Monthly Closing below 21600. So far, there is nothing implying that pattern just yet.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1513c8baaaf4
We can see that the monthly technical support begins at 23967. This is the ultimate area we should test to create a panic where people expect the market to meltdown. This is probably what is necessary as we head into these elections which will unleash violence in the aftermath.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1513c8baaa9d
The two next critical Monthly targets will be December and February. We are sending our a Special Report next week to attendees of the WEC. What is going on is we are approaching not just the Pi Target here on the ECM 11/21, but this is also a MAJOR Convergence of FOUR models all coming together at the same time. This Pi Target tends to be POLITICAL in nature so it can be extremely important.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1513c8baaac4
The greatest confusion is trying to comprehend the market performance. NORMALLY, in a stock market crash, you have the Flight to Quality which is to bonds. But this time, we have government in trouble. We also have interest rates closer to a 5000 year historic low. We have Italy's budget being rejected in Brussels and the entire bond markets in Europe have become illiquid.
We are at a crossroads here where capital will be confronted by insanity. This appears to be setting up for the biggest bear-trap perhaps in history. This is when we need the computer more than ever to pierce through the veil of emotions to reveal the true trend.
Timing for US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd151af0331634
The 23rd was a Directional Change and penetrating that low we would expect further downside. Keep in mind that the Weekly Bearish lies at 24965 and we have penetrated that level intraday. A closing beneath that level on Friday will signal we will most likely move lower into the week of 11/05. The bearishness is all about the elections. Real capital investment is deeply concerned that the Democrats are so vindictive that they will seriously harm the economy just to reverse whatever Trump has done just for spite. This decline has NOTHING to do with interest rates or trade. It is about politics.
We have a Daily Bearish at 25052 and a closing below that will tend to point to lower numbers ahead. We will see another Directional Change on Friday. We are not yet through this consolidation period and the main support lies just under the 24000 level starting at 23995.
US Share Markets
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1501e0b4792e
While the Dow barely exceeded Friday's high on Monday, that was not the case in the NASDAQ. Yet all three closed lower on Monday. We are still in this choppy consolidation. Since we did elect a Weekly Bullish on Friday in the Dow, that put us on warning that the decline would at least pause. This is why we NEVER enter trades in ANTICIPATION of anything. Only on the Reversals.
The NASDAQ made a new high today and the Dow did not. This is reflected in the Arrays which are different between the three indexes right now. Keep in mind that the NASDAQ peaked in August, S&P500 in September, and the DOW during the first week of October. So we should NOT expect all to behave in agreement. Nevertheless, this is also an indication that we are not looking at a MAJOR Crash that would reverse the long-term trend.
So NEVER NEVER NEVER Anticipate. Be dispassionate about the market for remember it is always going to be your own EMOTIONS that get the best of your judgement. ONLY trade on Reversals!!!!! Always let the market PROVE its direction. It is always the master of deception.
We are still in a position where we can make new lows before the elections. The number to watch is 267670 on the Cash S&P500. We stopped last week at 271051. So we have important support beneath last week's low that is not much further down. So do not get all bearish expecting the world just yet.
This is going to stay choppy into next week. The markets are still trying to figure out the direction as we have domestic players are bearish and international players more bearish on their home fronts. So this clash of views is responsible for the choppy pattern we should expect at this time.
The share markets should see some sort of a trend take shape for the elections.
Daily closings BELOW 276680 in the Cash S&P500, 24898 in the Dow, and 27400 in the NASDAQ would suggest that we will retest the lows.
REMEMBER - Position trading makes money - short-term trading more often than not loses money because people trade emotionally. Trade for the trend - not the daily swings without reversals!!!!
Elections
By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, October 26, 2018
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd150ac02ab860
The next target week has been highlighted by the computer as 11/05 in line with the elections. That is what this correction has been all about. Today, the key will be 24965 in the Dow, 26767 in the cash S&P for the closing. Do not forget that we also have three different highs. August for the NASDAQ, September for the S&P and October for the Dow. We should thus pay attention to the NASDAQ for here the ideal low was this week of 10/22 - not 11/05. Therefore, if the NASDAQ holds this week's low for the next 2 weeks, look at this as a leading indicator.
We still have this problem of a stock market crash produces the flight to quality as cash runs to bonds. But bonds are in trouble on this cycle so it makes no sense that we are looking at a major correction here in equities just yet. The only way that unfolds is a true Dark Age type meltdown whereby the underlying capital formation is wiped out. We do not appear to be at such a crossroads at this stage.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd150ac02ab898
The S&P Array does show a Directional Change this week. This is why I am warning DO NOT Anticipate electing Weekly Bearish Reversals just yet. Let the market reveal its intentions.
In the Dow, we need a closing BELOW 24965 today to signal a further decline into the elections. Sources are stating that all these packages of fake bombs sent to Democrats may be by a ploy by Democrats to get out the vote. Not a single package exploded. Either it was poorly done or intentional duds that were used for political news. Just very strange.
A closing BELOW 24579 in the Dow today would warn of entering CRASH MODE so that would reflect a sharper decline to test the monthly level of support. A closing today ABOVE 25588, which is unlikely, would signal a cycle inversion and a run to the highs.
The S&P500 the number is 26767 and a closing below that will also point to a potential low going into the elections. To stabilize the market even briefly where we consolidate requires a closing ABOVE 268360 today.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd150ac02ab8e2
When we turn to the NASDAQ, we have fallen back to test the original Uptrend Channel where the top rests at 736693. We reached this week a low at 709900. We ABSOLUTELY need a closing ABOVE 719716 to signal that we "may" have a low in place this week. The more solid number will be 735430. Our Weekly Bearish Reversal here lies in wait at 708482. A closing below that will warn that the NASDAQ may simply be overpowered by the election cycle and head down into the week of 11/05.
Therefore, the numbers to watch today at 24965 in the Dow, 26767 in S&P and 709482 in the NASDAQ. Electing all three and we are in CRASH MODE for the elections. Even a mixed bag would point lower but not a crash type affair just yet. Avoiding ALL three would not relieve the correction, it would signal consolidation.
We do not see this market coming to a decision until after the election.
US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, October 25, 2018
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1513c8baaa71
We can see that the market has fallen to new lows for the week of 10/22 and today is the ideal day for the low this week and we have a Directional Change tomorrow 10/26. The market has plummeted after we elected the Weekly Bearish Reversal back at 25753. The next Weekly Bearish has been penetrated 24965 intraday but we cannot ANTICIPATE that it will be elected just yet come Friday. If we do, then expect a continued decline into the week of 11/05 for the elections which have scared the hell out of major capital. The next Weekly Bearish will actually provide some target intraday support at 24075. The first Monthly Bearish lies at 23995. The Monthly Bearish that would signal a bear market into 2020 and a cycle inversion with a flip out back up thereafter into 2032 would be indicated by a Monthly Closing below 21600. So far, there is nothing implying that pattern just yet.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1513c8baaaf4
We can see that the monthly technical support begins at 23967. This is the ultimate area we should test to create a panic where people expect the market to meltdown. This is probably what is necessary as we head into these elections which will unleash violence in the aftermath.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1513c8baaa9d
The two next critical Monthly targets will be December and February. We are sending our a Special Report next week to attendees of the WEC. What is going on is we are approaching not just the Pi Target here on the ECM 11/21, but this is also a MAJOR Convergence of FOUR models all coming together at the same time. This Pi Target tends to be POLITICAL in nature so it can be extremely important.
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1513c8baaac4
The greatest confusion is trying to comprehend the market performance. NORMALLY, in a stock market crash, you have the Flight to Quality which is to bonds. But this time, we have government in trouble. We also have interest rates closer to a 5000 year historic low. We have Italy's budget being rejected in Brussels and the entire bond markets in Europe have become illiquid.
We are at a crossroads here where capital will be confronted by insanity. This appears to be setting up for the biggest bear-trap perhaps in history. This is when we need the computer more than ever to pierce through the veil of emotions to reveal the true trend.
Timing for US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd151af0331634
The 23rd was a Directional Change and penetrating that low we would expect further downside. Keep in mind that the Weekly Bearish lies at 24965 and we have penetrated that level intraday. A closing beneath that level on Friday will signal we will most likely move lower into the week of 11/05. The bearishness is all about the elections. Real capital investment is deeply concerned that the Democrats are so vindictive that they will seriously harm the economy just to reverse whatever Trump has done just for spite. This decline has NOTHING to do with interest rates or trade. It is about politics.
We have a Daily Bearish at 25052 and a closing below that will tend to point to lower numbers ahead. We will see another Directional Change on Friday. We are not yet through this consolidation period and the main support lies just under the 24000 level starting at 23995.
US Share Markets
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Image/...cd1501e0b4792e
While the Dow barely exceeded Friday's high on Monday, that was not the case in the NASDAQ. Yet all three closed lower on Monday. We are still in this choppy consolidation. Since we did elect a Weekly Bullish on Friday in the Dow, that put us on warning that the decline would at least pause. This is why we NEVER enter trades in ANTICIPATION of anything. Only on the Reversals.
The NASDAQ made a new high today and the Dow did not. This is reflected in the Arrays which are different between the three indexes right now. Keep in mind that the NASDAQ peaked in August, S&P500 in September, and the DOW during the first week of October. So we should NOT expect all to behave in agreement. Nevertheless, this is also an indication that we are not looking at a MAJOR Crash that would reverse the long-term trend.
So NEVER NEVER NEVER Anticipate. Be dispassionate about the market for remember it is always going to be your own EMOTIONS that get the best of your judgement. ONLY trade on Reversals!!!!! Always let the market PROVE its direction. It is always the master of deception.
We are still in a position where we can make new lows before the elections. The number to watch is 267670 on the Cash S&P500. We stopped last week at 271051. So we have important support beneath last week's low that is not much further down. So do not get all bearish expecting the world just yet.
This is going to stay choppy into next week. The markets are still trying to figure out the direction as we have domestic players are bearish and international players more bearish on their home fronts. So this clash of views is responsible for the choppy pattern we should expect at this time.
The share markets should see some sort of a trend take shape for the elections.
Daily closings BELOW 276680 in the Cash S&P500, 24898 in the Dow, and 27400 in the NASDAQ would suggest that we will retest the lows.
REMEMBER - Position trading makes money - short-term trading more often than not loses money because people trade emotionally. Trade for the trend - not the daily swings without reversals!!!!