Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Hi Benjamin,
Thank you for re-posting important posts. I read them all, even some older, and pretty much understand everything except money flow. Can you explain how do you figure out money flow? How do you find out money flow between different asset classes?
Thanks

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/are...aig-hemke.html

Thanks for your excellent questions and for reading recent posts.

We start each NEW day at 8:30 AM New York Time. Eastern Standard Time. We see what news came out at 8:30 AM (Scheduled Releases)

If the DOW 30 and the SP500 Futures are UP we start with RISK ON !!!

So the MONEY FLOW starts when the North American Equity Markets open and of course 2 hours later at 11:30 AM there is less Money Flow as Europe goes home.

I have 6 Trade Plans as of today.

(1) Short US 30
(2) Short SP500
(3) Short USD/JPY

Of course only when we have RISK OFF !!!

(4) Long Silver
(5) Long Gold
(6) Long or Short EUR/USD

I will post again in the morning.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ops+to+zero%29

Good Morning

At this moment in time the Dow and SP500 Futures are up. We start the morning with Risk On so as the morning moves towards 8:30 AM , we stay up to date on the news around the world. You can go to WWW.FINVIZ.COM and have as much news as you need.

So for the moment I would NOT short US 30 or SP500 or USD/JPY.

When the Equity markets open at 9:30 AM things could be completely changed. If we go to RISK OFF as the Equity markets head into the negative we can consider a trade.

I need you to ask any questions that you may have to make sure that you understand.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ops+to+zero%29


Again, successful investing in the metals requires the ability to buy a little when things look darkest. To that point though, these buying opportunities don't often clearly present themselves. The only question remaining for December of 2017 is...are you prepared to take advantage this time?


Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE.

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...r06Fh4b8vsR8KQ


Comments from Benjaminis: If the Tax Bill is NOT passed EXPECT a major SELL OFF in the Equity Markets.

The new extension to the DEBT CEILING expires on December 22, 2017 which is next Friday and XMAS follows So if there is any problem extending it again and there could well be as the Democrats clearly want to force a Government Shutdown at least until early January 2018 so this probably will cause an Equity SELL OFF !!!

These are all matters that need to be observed because NO CHART can tell you this.

As always please ask questions.

1. Post 3,961
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Aug 19, 2017 9:00pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,367 Posts | Online Now

http://www.adamlebor.com/books/tower_of_basel/

The world's most exclusive club meets every other month at 7pm on Sunday evening in a circular tower block whose tinted windows overlook Basel railway station. Its members include some of the most powerful men in the world. They are central bankers, who have come to Switzerland to attend the Economic Consultative Committee of the Bank for International Settlements, the bank for central banks.


Set up in 1930 by an international treaty, the BIS and its assets are legally inviolable. The Swiss authorities have no jurisdiction over the bank or its premises. The BIS has just 140 customers but made tax-free profits of $1.17 billion in 2011-12.

Under Thomas McKittrick, the bank's American president, the BIS continued operating throughout the Second World War. The BIS accepted looted Nazi gold, conducted foreign exchange deals for the Reichsbank and was used by both the Allies and the Axis powers as a secret contact point to keep the channels of international finance open.

After 1945 the BIS—behind the scenes—for decades provided the necessary technical and administrative support for the trans-European currency project, from the first attempts to harmonize exchange rates in the late 1940s to the launch of the Euro in 2002.
The bank is now at the centre of efforts to build a new global financial and regulatory architecture. Yet despite its central role in the history of the last century and during the current crisis, the BIS remains largely unknown - until now.

Tower of Basel is the first unauthorised investigative history of the world's most influential global financial institution. Based on extensive archival research in Switzerland, Britain and the United States, and in-depth interviews with key decision makers including Paul Volcker, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England and former senior BIS managers and officials, Tower of Basel tells the story of the secretive institution at the heart of the global banking network: the central bankers' own bank.

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,368 Posts | Online Now

http://www.bkforex.com/boris-schloss...one-tells-you/

1. You can get paid rebates every time you make a trade. Do 10 trades/day and you can make 5-10% per year without making a single pip of profit.

2. If you use anything greater than 10X leverage on your opening trade your chance of losing all your money is 100% (that’s my opinion, not fact, but it’s as good as fact because it’s based on cold hard experience of 30 years worth of trading)

3. News (both scheduled and unscheduled) is the single biggest driver of price movement. If you are making all your buy/sell decisions from a chart only -- you are like a blindfolded hiker walking off the edge of Grand Canyon.

4. Big breakouts almost always have continuity. Fading them is the ultimate rookie move

5. Stops are never optional. Trading without them is like driving Indianapolis 500 without a seat belt. You WILL die.

http://www.bkforex.com/wp-content/up...2.12.20-PM.png

6. If the news is good but price falls -- trust price.

7. Charts, asset class quotes, real time news, institutional-type squawk box, automatic trade journaling are all free or near free -- just ask me for resources.

8. There are three possible trade outcomes -- win, lose and scratch. The most profitable traders scratch 25% of their trades.

9. You can win frequently or you can win big -- but you can never do both.

10. There are only two strategies in all of trading -- trend and counter trend.

BORIS SCHLOSSBERG

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...n=sharetheview

Last month a Wall Street Journal editor asked a room full of CEOs to raise their hands if the corporate tax cut being considered in Congress would lead them to invest more. Very few hands went up. Attending was Gary Cohn, President Donald Trump's economic adviser and a friend of mine. He asked: "Why aren't the other hands up?"


Allow me to answer that: We don't need the money.


Corporations are sitting on a record amount of cash reserves: nearly $2.3 trillion. That figure has been climbing steadily since the recession ended in 2009, and it's now double what it was in 2001. The reason CEOs aren't investing more of their liquid assets has little to do with the tax rate.


CEOs aren't waiting on a tax cut to "jump-start the economy" -- a favorite phrase of politicians who have never run a company -- or to hand out raises. It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that.


Instead, Congress did what it always does: It put politics first. After spending the first nine months of the year trying to jam through a repeal of Obamacare without holding hearings, heeding independent analysis or seeking Democratic input, Republicans took the same approach to tax "reform" -- and it shows.


The Treasury Department claimed to have more than 100 professional staffers "working around the clock" to analyze the tax cut. If true, their hard work must have been suppressed. The flimsy one-page analysis Treasury released -- which accepts the White House's reality-defying economic projections in order to claim that the tax cuts will pay for themselves and then some -- is a politically driven document that amounts to economic malpractice. So does the bill itself.


The largest economic challenges we face include a skills crisis that our public schools are not addressing, crumbling infrastructure that imperils our global competitiveness, wage stagnation coupled with growing wealth inequality, and rising deficits that will worsen as more baby boomers retire.


The tax bill does nothing to address these challenges. In fact, it makes each of them worse.


EDUCATION: The bill, by limiting the deduction for state and local taxes, will make it harder for the localities to raise money for education. The burden will fall heaviest on cities with poor students, making it harder for millions of children to escape from poverty -- and leaving more and more businesses with fewer qualified job applicants.


INFRASTRUCTURE: Restricting state and local tax deductions will also mean less local investment for infrastructure, and by raising deficits, the bill will constrain federal infrastructure spending. Our airports, railways and roads are in desperate need of modernization, and our energy grids are vulnerable and inefficient. Yet spending on those and other needs, which acts as a catalyst for private investment, will become more difficult.


INEQUALITY: If Congress wanted to raise real wages and reward work, there is a simple and proven way to do it: expand the earned income tax credit. Instead, it seems to believe that lower corporate tax rates will magically lead to higher wages, which fundamentally misunderstands how labor markets work.
In addition, by eliminating the requirement that individuals buy health insurance, many young and healthy people will drop out of the marketplace, causing health insurance premiums to rise for everyone else. This is nothing more than a backdoor tax increase on health care for millions of middle-class families that will leave them with less disposable income for savings, investment and spending.


DEFICITS: The bill's cost -- $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion -- makes it more difficult for taxpayers to afford Medicare and Social Security for the baby boom generation, which is now hitting retirement. Republicans didn't grapple with those costs. Instead, they kicked the can down the road. Ignoring the bill's price tag, or pretending we needn't worry about deficits, is like ignoring climate change or pretending we needn't worry about its effects. I'll say one thing for Republicans in Congress: They're consistent.


In effect, the tax bill achieves four main things:

1. It takes money away from schools and students.
2. It restricts our ability to invest in infrastructure.
3. It does nothing to boost real wages while making health insurance more expensive.
4. It makes it harder to control the costs of Medicare and Social Security without cutting defense and other spending -- or further exploding the deficit.

To what end? To hand corporations big tax cuts they don't need, while lowering the tax rate paid by those of us in the top bracket, and allowing the wealthy to shelter more of their estates.


To be clear: I'm in favor of reducing the 35 percent corporate tax rate as part of a revenue-neutral tax reform effort. Right now, the corporate code is so convoluted, and rates so high relative to other nations (thereby creating an incentive to keep profits offshore), that the real rates companies pay can be wildly divergent. This is neither fair nor efficient. Eliminating loopholes and reining in the offshoring of profits can and should be done in a revenue-neutral overhaul of the tax code.


Republicans in Congress will have to take responsibility for the bill's harmful effects, but blame also falls on its cheerleader-in-chief, President Trump. A president's job is to get the two parties in Congress to work together. Yet Trump is making the same mistake that Barack Obama made in his first two years in office -- believing that his party's congressional majority gives him license to govern without the other side.


The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future. The Republicans in Congress who must surely know it -- and who have bucked party leaders before -- should vote no.

Comments from Benjaminis: You can SEE that REALITY will eventually TRUMP the PERCEPTION , THEN Everything will REVERSE.

Understanding this as I teach it gives you a BIG EDGE in your Forex Trading.

From my Post 3882 of July 29, 2017. PLEASE READ IT AND LOOK WHERE WE ARE TODAY AND WHY !!!

Then you start to see the BIGGER and REALITY POSITION.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...y-selling-them

Central Banks Now Own Stocks And Bonds Worth Trillions – And They Could Crash The Markets By Selling Them
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...icons/user.gif By Michael Snyder, on June 7th, 2017


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...in-460x258.jpgHave you ever wondered why stocks just seem to keep going up no matter what happens? For years, financial markets have been behaving in ways that seem to defy any rational explanation, but once you understand the role that central banks have been playing everything begins to make sense. In the aftermath of the great financial crisis of 2008, global central banks began to buy stocks, bonds and other financial assets in very large quantities and they haven’t stopped since. In fact, as you will see below, global central banks are on pace to buy 3.6 trillion dollars worth of stocks and bonds this year alone. At this point, the Swiss National Bank owns more publicly-traded shares of Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg does, and the Bank of Japan is now a top-five owner in 81 different large Japanese firms. These global central banks are shamelessly pumping up global stock markets, but because they now have such vast holdings they could also cause a devastating global stock market crash simply by starting to sell off their portfolios.



Over the years I have often been asked about the “plunge protection team”, but the truth is that global central banks are the real “plunge protection team”. If stocks start surging higher on any particular day for seemingly no reason, it is probably the work of a central bank. Because they can inject billions of dollars into the markets whenever they want, that essentially allows them to “play god” and move the markets in any direction that they please.


But of course what they have done is essentially destroy the marketplace. A “free market” for stocks basically no longer exists because of all this central bank manipulation. I really like how Bruce Wilds made this point…
One indication of just how messed up and flawed the global markets have become is reflected in the way central banks across the world are now buying stocks. This has become a part of their response to correcting the forces of past excesses. Their incursion into this bastion of the free markets signals we have entered the era where true price discovery no longer exists. The central banks are often viewed as price-insensitive buyers, so this incestuous influx of money is in some ways the ultimate distortion.

According to Business Insider, global central banks are on pace to purchase an astounding 3.6 trillion dollars in stocks and bonds in 2017.

Overall, the five largest global central banks now collectively have 14.6 trillion dollars in assets on their balance sheets.



You can call this a lot of things, but it certainly isn’t free market capitalism.


The Swiss National Bank is one of the biggest offenders. During just the first three months of this year, it bought 17 billion dollars worth of U.S. stocks, and that brought the overall total that the Swiss National Bank is currently holding to more than $80 billion.


Have you ever wondered why shares of Apple just seem to keep going up and up and up?

Well, the Swiss National Bank bought almost 4 million shares of Apple during the months of January, February and March.

And as I mentioned above, the Swiss National Bank “now owns more publicly-traded shares in Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg”…

Switzerland’s central bank now owns more publicly-traded shares in Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg, part of a mushrooming stock portfolio that is likely to grow yet further.

The tech giant’s founder and CEO has other ways to control his company: Zuckerberg holds most of his stake in a different class of stock. Nevertheless this example illustrates how the Swiss National Bank has become a multi-billion-dollar equity investor due to its campaign to hold down the Swiss franc.

It is now the world’s eighth-biggest public investor, data from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum show.

But as shameless as the Swiss National Bank has been, the Bank of Japan is even worse.

Today, the Nikkei is essentially a giant sham. The Bank of Japan regularly goes in and just starts buying up everything in sight, and according to Bloomberg they are on pace to become the largest shareholder in dozens of the most prominent Japanese corporations by the end of 2017…

Already a top-five owner of 81 companies in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the BOJ is on course to become the No. 1 shareholder in 55 of those firms by the end of next year, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg from the central bank’s exchange-traded fund holdings.

If global central banks have the power to pump up these markets, they also have the power to crash them.
Why would they want to do such a thing?

I can answer that question with just two words…
Donald Trump.


If the Comey angle doesn’t work, the elite could try to destroy Trump by engineering an absolutely devastating stock market crash. Close to half the U.S. population dislikes Trump anyway, and so it would be fairly easy to get them to believe that Trump’s policies have caused a new financial crisis. Of course that would be complete nonsense, but in our society today the truth often doesn’t really matter.


And without a doubt, evidence continues to mount that the real economy is starting to slow down substantially. For example, we just learned that bankruptcies surged once again in May. The following comes from Wolf Richter…
So here we go again. Total US business bankruptcies in May rose 4.7% year-over-year to 3,572 filings, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. That’s up 40% from May 2015 and up 10% from May 2014.

And there’s another concern: Bankruptcy filings are highly seasonal. They peak in tax season – March or April – and then fall off. The decline in April after the peak in March was within that seasonal pattern. Over the past years, filings dropped in May. But not this year.


Without unprecedented intervention by global central banks, financial markets would have crashed long ago.

And if they keep increasing their purchases of stocks and bonds, the central banks may be able to prop things up for a while longer.

Who knows? Perhaps with enough financial engineering they would be able to keep this bubble going for years.

Of course things would start to get really awkward once they eventually owned virtually everything, but I have a feeling that things will never get that far.

I have a feeling that global central banks will eventually find an excuse to start “unwinding their balance sheets”, and I have a feeling that it will be at a time that is highly inconvenient for President Trump.

https://www.forexfactory.com//dsms0m...ing-caring.png


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS:

For myself when I first wake up and come to my computer and start to read my emails from overnight, when I come across information that best represents the reality of the day I read the article and since December 3, 2016 when I started this thread in advance of putting my material on my corporate website I post it here on my thread.

The article that you have just read perhaps is one of the most enlightening ones that I have read not that I was unaware of the information contained in the article however in light of the importance of today for many reasons the article is very much on topic.

This is what the topics are for today.

(1) The decision by the ECB led by Draghi.

(2) The hearings in the USA concerning James Comey and President Donald John Trump.

(3) The election in Great Britain today.

The results will surely whatever they are have major effects on the valuing of all the Asset Classes in the World.

Since all of us that have any interest in what is happening in our world have heard the term "FAKE NEWS"

Yes we surely live in a FAKE WORLD...

Here is the REALITY OF THE WORLD WE ALL LIVE IN TOGETHER.

When in human history have we had Central Banks of the World buy the Stock Market as this article by Michael Snyder explains FACTUALLY. This is NOT FAKE NEWS.

This clearly explains why MARKETS KEEP DEFYING GRAVITY and continue to go up. Is it any wonder that we have for the moment Winners and Losers ?

The answer is no however it actually is not only about Winners and Losers... It is about the FUTURE of your life.

It is about FOCUS. It is about PRIORITY. It is about HONESTY and INTEGRITY. It is about Human Nature.

So.... We who have any interest in what happens today are first waiting for FAKE NEWS from Draghi although what he has been doing in the name of Europe is REALITY and there is nothing FAKE about his actions. However his actions change REALITY for the time being and cause FALSE PERCEPTIONS to form because of the IGNORANCE out there for whatever reason. The 1% are surely NOT IGNORANT as they are the ones that BENEFIT FINANCIALLY.

Now I turn to the Congressional Hearing starting in the USA at 10:00 AM (Montreal Time) that again will have the Eyes of the World on them. Michael Snyder refers to this as the TRUMP FACTOR....

I will share my realistic opinion on the 45TH President of the USA , Donald John Trump.

I had correctly predicted that he would be elected because I could see what was involving since he first entered the election race as one of 17 Republicans candidates. His main ROLE has been as a DISRUPT-ER.

We can all see 100% however there is nothing that he has not changed. When I say CHANGED, I refer to the STATUS QUO...

Now I move ahead to 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time or 10:00 PM in London England when we will have the first indications of who will win the Election in Great Britain today.

My closing COMMENTS will hopefully tie everything together for anyone that takes the time to read my Morning Thoughts and UNDERSTAND THEM.

The world started to change first with BREXIT..... That was the beginning of the 1% starting to lose CONTROL of their agenda and we saw the results which complete the circle with a NEW ELECTION on Thursday, June 8, 2017.
There is the hearings concerning the DISRUPT-ER and he has done that with all of the decisions made with his taking input from his family, friends and enemies of which he has many.

The WORLD IS TODAY UPSIDE DOWN and ALL US HUMANS will be shaken out of our cozy little world whether it is running a family business as one of my friends is doing in South Africa or living their lives perhaps AWARE yet just assuming that it will not affect them.

I will be watching and reacting and trading today until the North American Equity Markets close today at 4:00 PM.


Sincerely submitted Benjaminis has learned so much about himself and others and the world by faithfully posting on my thread since December 3, 2016 HOPEFULLY helping TEACH some of you how to improve your Forex Trading and much more importantly your lives.

Good morning Benjaminis,

Thank you for your time and willingness to share your system and eye-opening articles.
I see your trading plan in case that Equity markets open lower.
But if Equity markets open higher will you take opposite trades (Long US 30, Long SP500, Long USD/JPY, Short Silver and Gold)?
What does it mean Long or Short EUR/USD? In which case Long and which case Short?
Thank you again

So we have a number of trade plans and one of my KEYS IS to only TRADE with the Trend. The TREND is your friend.

So I have determined that the TREND for US 30 and SP500 is DOWN !!! What are you crazy ? My sense of humor. What I am saying with certainty is eventually when the PONZI will end by the BOJ and SNB and ECB and FED. Now on a Risk OFF day then I short my top three trade plans. Do you understand and why I do that ?

EXCELLENT EXCELLENT QUESTION about Long or Short EUR/USD ?

I have not as yet being today decided if the trend for EUR/USD is Up or Down SMILE

I think when you say trend in the stock market is down you mean that this bull is artificially achieved by central banks investing printed money in stock and bonds. Entire global recovery is based on printed money. But they can't figure out how to increase wages and inflation. Longer they support this bull, bigger burst will happen.
If I may ask a few questions:
1. Stock market trend is still up and can continue for a while. Isn't it still safer to trade long?
2. If Equity markets open higher will you trade (Long US 30, Long SP500, Long USD/JPY, Short Silver and Gold)?
3. If I understand correctly, days when you trade you enter the trade at 9:30 and finish around 11:30 due to closing of the European market?
4. How do you determine EUR/USD trend? Looking at the charts?
Thanks

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...-jeff-tomasulo

Crypto Envy? Beware Greed and FOMO - Jeff Tomasulo
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ure-238352.png
by Vince Lanci
Dec 15, 2017 4:35 PM



Crypto Envy
To us, Jeff is describing what he knows from his years of experience and some call the "psychology of regret". It is also closely related to the concept of a Giffen good in economics. That is an item in which its demand goes up as its price does, like perfume. Cryptos are right now exhibiting Giffen Good qualities because of the press and hype surrounding the launch of futures for sure. This is why it is all the more important to not forget your discipline. When the world is telling you to buy something because it went up, the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) that Jeff describes so well can be overwhelming.

The message is clear to us. There will be other opportunities, don't chase the last one. Ignore the fact that your next door neighbor who just bought a Rolls with his Bitcoin winnings is just lucky, not good. Stick to your rules, and remember trading, as well as investing, is a marathon, not a sprint. The market will be there tomorrow - Soren K.

GREED and FOMO
Written by Jeff Tomasulo, CEO Vespula Capital
Every month, I speak to around a hundred retail investors at a conference in Utah. Over past six months, I’ve been getting pretty much the same two questions. “Where do you think the market will go?” and “Would you invest in Bitcoin?” keep coming up. Both questions are obviously very subjective. The more interesting question, the one that has plagued me at times throughout my career, is about the thought processes of investors. Why do investors find it so compelling to invest in assets and projects where the risks are hard to measure and the probabilities of success are so low? It mainly comes down to two consistent killers of returns, Greed and Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO).


Greed and FOMO have been affecting investors and people outside of the investing world for centuries. That is why get rich quick infomercials still work today. Most of us have an inner desire to catch that one special stock that goes from 50 cents all the way up to 100 dollars. This is the allure of the penny stocks. It is also why bitcoin is getting so much attention today. Yes, it is a new technology that can, maybe, possibly, someday change the world. That’s why Greed and FOMO are kicking in.


Greed and FOMO are the main reasons why certain stocks go parabolic. We like to dig deep into our pasts and remember all the times we wanted to invest in a stock like Apple at $12 in 1997 but didn’t do it. Or when Google broke above $500, and people told you it was overvalued. Or that time you had an opportunity to invest in that start-up with a few of your friends, but you didn’t. They walked away with a few hundred thousand dollars. You do not want to miss out again! Greed and FOMO! That is how we justify buying Boeing at $295 or AMAZON $1165 even after they have both soared over 50% this year.


Ironically, we usually do not recall all the times that we missed out on losing a ton of money. For me, it was Bear Stearns the Friday before it was bought by JP Morgan for $2 a share. By not pulling the trigger at $30.85 a share, I saved myself $200,000. Was I jealous of my friends who invested in an energy drink company when I didn’t? The four of them lost a total of a million dollars because the CEO was stealing money from the company. We have to remind ourselves that when our Greed and FOMO is high, it can cut both ways. More often than not, it usually goes the wrong way.


One thing I have learned over the past 22 years of investing is that there is no need to fear missing out. The 1960s and early 70s had the Nifty Fifty, the 1990s had the Internet, and today we have the FANG stocks. There will always be new opportunities, but they probably won’t be the same companies. [EDIT- And jumping on bandwagons can be detrimental to healthy diversification - Soren K]


To me, there is a difference between investing to make consistent returns and trying to hit that magic home run. There is nothing wrong with home runs. The keys are how you go about it and how much money you allocate to it. This is what I tell anyone who will listen: If you have Greed and FOMO running through your veins, take a very small portion of your overall portfolio and make small bets on these types of ideas. That way, you can satisfy your Greed and FOMO without losing a fortune. Hopefully, over time you will even hit one or two of them and actually make some money.

My answers to your excellent questions.

I think when you say trend in the stock market is down you mean that this bull is artificially achieved by central banks investing printed money in stock and bonds. Entire global recovery is based on printed money. But they can't figure out how to increase wages and inflation. Longer they support this bull, bigger burst will happen.

Benjaminis: What I really mean is the UPSIDE is Limited and once it comes down it has a long way to fall SO why go against the real trend ?

When I go short on days RISK is OFF the MONEY FLOW will carry it down and as I will explain later as WE scale in three positions on each Trade Plan the RISK or LOSS is limited to a MAXIMUM of 6% of your total Forex trading capital.


If I may ask a few questions:
1. Stock market trend is still up and can continue for a while. Isn't it still safer to trade long?

I have answered the safety question above.


2. If Equity markets open higher will you trade (Long US 30, Long SP500, Long USD/JPY, Short Silver and Gold)?

NO since it goes against THE REAL TREND (Not The Fake Trend) This is where fundamentals come in.


3. If I understand correctly, days when you trade you enter the trade at 9:30 and finish around 11:30 due to closing of the European market?

No , If I enter a trade at anytime the position is left on until either a PROFIT is taken or a MAXIMUM LOSS of $1000 US by being stopped out.

8:30 AM to 9:30 AM is only used to see where we start the Trading Day with Risk On or Risk Off.

My Forex MAIN Trading Hours are first 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM then the major part is from 9:30 AM to Noon and from 2:00 PM to 5:00 PM.

I do not usually do trades from 5:00 PM to 2:00 AM so I have off for 9 Hours. There is not enough volume when only Asia is open.



4. How do you determine EUR/USD trend? Looking at the charts?

I will answer that question when I get into how I use Technical Indicators and Fundamentals and Money Flow.

You are welcome and please keep all your questions coming. That is how we both learn.


Benjaminis

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,374 Posts | Online Now

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Bond Bears Battered To 5-Month Lows But Rate-Hike Bets Top $3.2 Trillion
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Apr 16, 2017 6:00 PM


Since their peak 'shortedness' in mid-January, US Treasury bond bears have covered 500,000 10-year-equivalent contracts, reducing the net speculative short to its lowest since before Thanksgiving 2016.


At the same time, however, Eurodollar shorts (bets on Fed rate hikes) have soared to a new record high (over $3.2 trillion notional).

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...5_BondED_0.jpg

However, both the absolute level of Treasury yields and the short-term eurodollar curve (bets on The Fed's path in the next 18 months) are losing their faith in Trumpflation and Janet Yellen.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...3_EOD5_1_0.jpg
Bloomberg's Tanvir Sandhu notes that the intermediate and long-term Treasury yields have broken down from this years ranges and are now at their post-election lows, given the confluence of global political-risk events and increased doubts about the prospects for sizable tax reform. Investors need to quantify how much of President Donald Trumps policy agenda is left in the price and the risks if policy disappoints.


Deutsche Bank now sees the balance of risks as tilted toward still lower yields across the curve in the near term. Last week we revised our forecasts to reflect a near term dip in 10y yields toward 2%, with yields ending the current quarter at 2.25% and climbing to 2.75% by the end of 2017.

This path reflects concern for risk off conditions driven by the French electoral process, significant delays or even failure of pro-growth tax reform in the US, a possible slowdown in soft indicators such as our excess liquidity metric, and positioning.

However, there remains a plausible path to higher rates. If the French electoral process is not acutely disruptive, if progress is eventually made on tax reform, and if the data remain resilient then rates should rise again and the Fed could push on. In this sort of scenario the Feds trade-off between balance sheet reduction and rate hikes would likely come into greater focus.

However, for now, futures positioning and options skews show bond bears losing the fight.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._BondED1_0.jpg
As Bloomberg reports, the cost of options to bet that U.S. yields will fall in the near term has now moved higher than those to position for an increase. With volatility beyond three-month expiries still relatively low, this boosts the appeal of hedging against mounting geopolitical risks via spread options. Short-dated skews on 10-year rates have turned negative, with receivers trading at a premium to payers. The flattening of short-dated skews increases the attractiveness to hedge against lower rates via receiver spreads. These skews tend to predict subsequent changes in underlying rates, with flatter skews since December having indicated risks to duration shorts.

North Korea and Syria were the straw that broke the camels back, but now we have a new range, said Glen Capelo, a trader at Mischler Financial. He pegs it at about 2.05 percent to 2.4 percent for the 10-year yield, after itd been stuck between 2.3 percent and 2.65 percent.


For bond bears, were not going to know anything for a while, on the timing of Trumps fiscal-policy agenda, Capelo said. The onus now is that the hard data has to turn higher.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...414_hard_0.jpg

Comments from Benjaminis: I am going to start a new approach and tell you all that you need to know and be aware of from this Zerohedge article.

It is really only about Rate Hikes and the US 10 Year Bonds tell you more about the markets then the words of the FED and their spinners.

Here is a Daily Chart of the 10 Year US Bonds from Finviz.

You can see that during September and October and Novermber 2016 the US Bonds were trading around 130.000 than they bottomed around 122.000 and gradually moved up to where they are now at 126.33.

For those new to this way of looking at Forex as the US 10 Year Bonds move up in price the YIELDS come down so as the US 10 Year Bonds moved down in price to 122.000 the Yields were going up towards 2.65 % and now as they go up to 126.33 the YIELDS are coming back down as the CERTAINTY of more FED Rate hikes lessens and what the article is saying the HARD DATA will decide on the STRENGTH of the economy which we know is not strong.

Here is the comments from the above article on new projections.


"Deutsche Bank now sees the balance of risks as tilted toward still lower yields across the curve in the near term. Last week we revised our forecasts to reflect a near term dip in 10y yields toward 2%, with yields ending the current quarter at 2.25% and climbing to 2.75% by the end of 2017."

AND

North Korea and Syria were the straw that broke the camels back, but now we have a new range, said Glen Capelo, a trader at Mischler Financial. He pegs it at about 2.05 percent to 2.4 percent for the 10-year yield, after itd been stuck between 2.3 percent and 2.65 percent.

PLEASE POST YOUR QUESTIONS IF YOU ARE NOT CLEAR.

Why this is important is because as the 10 Year US Bond rates go UP or DOWN they tend to telegraph what the FED will actually do and understanding the FUNDAMENTALS they really cannot afford a STRONG US DOLLAR so they are caught between a ROCK and a HARD PLACE.

President Trump needs a WEAKER US Dollar as he said because it causes many problems being stronger and in effect all the Central Banks want LOWER Currencies and that is why they are all doing things never done before because of their DESPERATION to keep their PONZI SCHEME continuing.

I found an excellent article that will explain it much better than I have.

It is not that complicated to read it and looking at the information and the charts attached should make it very clear. If you have questions please post them. Thank you...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/st...shifting-macro

Stocks, Bonds And Gold; Snapshot Of A Shifting Macro
Gary Tanashian

April 14, 2017

Over the last year we transitioned from the stock market angst of 2015 to the bullish breakout of 2016. For NFTRH, the real proof in the pudding was the ramp up in the cyclical Semiconductor sector’s Equipment sub-segment (Applied Materials, Lam Research and the like). Specifically, we tracked a trend in Equipment orders and projected a bullish Semi sector a year ago. The logical extension of this was a bullish stock market, since the Semis are a leader.


What a difference a year makes. Reference AMAT Chirps, B2B Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode from last May. Our best target for the SOX index was around 940 and late-arriving momentum players (and their ‘quant’ machines) have driven the index beyond reason of late, to a high of 1017 last month.

It is time for a cool down in this leader; potentially a real deep freeze because it has been running way too hot.


Always looking ahead, and only looking behind for frames of reference, we see that some macro signals are shifting beneath conventional market participants’ feet. First, as I began clubbing people over the head with in January, the Treasury bond market was set up to catch everyone off guard. Who called the bottom in bonds? Why, none other than media star Louise Yamada and Bloomberg with the headline R.I.P. Bond Bull as Charts Say Last Gasps Have Been Taken. All of this hysteria because Louise knew how to draw a single line on a chart of the 10 year yield.


“Prices of bonds are going to go down and you are going to lose your capital,” said Yamada, who began her technical forecasting career at Smith Barney under mentor Alan Shaw.

Here was my response from a post called, ironically enough, R.I.P. Bond Bull!!!!! on December 16…

But let’s take it further and draw a different trend line than Yamada’s; let’s make a post-1986 trend line and then add a parallel lower line to form a trend channel. Taking another step further, let’s note that the high set on the late 2013 GREAT ROTATION!!! (out of bonds and into stocks) hype in the financial media exactly 3 years ago is the decision point on a new trend, and that happens to more or less coincide with the upper channel line.


But first things first, TNX has not even broken the moving average yet (it is 2.69% vs. a current yield of 2.58%).
Here is the updated chart. All the 10yr yield has done is decline since the big proclamation about rising yields (declining bonds). This was 100% in line with the contrarian setup for bonds as the Yamada/Bloomberg media complex unwittingly marked the bottom in bonds, almost to the day.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...gt041417-1.png
But the above is a digression from the points I want to make in this post. Those points are that certain indicators of general market risk are rising and at the same time, these indicators could point to a coming counter-cyclical atmosphere (if the fledgling breakouts shown below go on to higher levels and new trends). Let’s begin, aptly enough, with Treasury bonds.


The long-term Treasury bond fund (TLT) is finally (I did have to exercise a lot of patience, although the steady dividend income helped) breaking out from a double bottom. The target is the declining 200 day moving average. This is a bounce only for this risk ‘off’ item, and we are not necessarily bearish on the stock market beyond the current correction.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...gt041417-2.png
But here is where it gets interesting for gold. Anything look familiar to you? This is exactly the reason we talk about tuning out inflationist gold bugs and tuning in to the reality that the gold sector is counter-cyclical. Think of it this way, TLT above would not be rising in an inflationary environment. No, it rises with counter-cyclical and/or deflationary forces. Gold vs. SPX (GLD-SPY) below does the same thing.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...gt041417-3.png
It is for this reason that we harp on the ‘Macrocosm’ as the driver of the counter-cyclical gold sector’s real fundamentals. What’s the biggest planet? Why, Gold-SPX above.


http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...gt041417-4.png
Now, if TLT is only indicated to be on a bounce to its declining SMA 200, so too likely is gold vs. the stock market.


Folks, we are on a macro shift and bounce right now but changing the macro for real is going to take a lot of time, and successful management of these changes is going to take a lot of flexibility and on-the-go analysis.

Commit to remaining aware of what is on a bounce, what is on a trend and what it would take to put all these elements into a blender and change current trends. Commit to working at it, because one day when the macro pivots and changes for real, it will have been well worth it.

I am being purposefully vague with conclusions because those conclusions can only be made through the details we work at every week in NFTRH. Putting out set-in-stone conclusions in this atmosphere could do more harm than good because the markets are in motion and often contradictory from one time frame to another. It takes management. Manage.


NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com

Gary Tanashian of biiwii.com successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, keeping the company’s fundamentals in alignment with global economic realities through various economic cycles. The natural progression from this experience is an understanding of and appreciation for global macro-economics as it relates to individual markets and sectors.

Comments from Benjaminis: I hope this add on article makes it clearer and why watching what the US Bonds do leads the way with the Money Flow which of course changes the values of all the Asset Classes.

1

 

1. Post 2,983
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Apr 16, 2017 8:24pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,374 Posts | Online Now

This is a GREAT CHART of EUR/USD...

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...5&d=1492387351

It reminds me of when I started trading and following the Trend going LONG EUR/USD all the way to 1.60 and then beyond ALL ODDS see it break 1.20 and that is when I started trading other currencies as well which was then USD/JPY.


Benjaminis

1

 

1. Post 2,984
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Apr 16, 2017 9:25pm | Edited at 9:41pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,374 Posts | Online Now

https://yragharris.com/2017/04/16/treasury/

Notes From Underground: Trump Delivers on Using the Dollar as a Policy Tool


Notes From Underground: Treasury Takes a softer Approach to Global Monetary Affairs

On Friday April 14 Treasury released a report that deemed no major trading a currency manipulator but five countries have met two of the three criteria and therefore will be closely monitored. This report is very well laid out but it is not incendiary as it seeks to persuade with a very soft touch. The three criteria of meeting of being a manipulator are:
1. A significant bilateral trade surplus with the U.S.of a least $20 billion;
2. S current account surplus is at least 3% of a nations GDP; and
3. Persistent, one-sided intervention occurs when net purchases of foreign currency are conducted repeatedly and total at least 2% of a nations GDP in a 12-month period.

Five nations met at least two of the three criteria and will be on a monitoring list: Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Germany and Switzerland.

China is on the list solely on the basis of its massive bilateral trade surplus with the U.S.

Switzerland is on the list but the U.S. Treasury cites the reason for Swiss intervention being the upward pressure on the FRANC due to the Swiss role as a haven for times of geopolitical strife.

The Treasury noted that even with the SNBs continued currency intervention, the IMF maintains that the Swiss currency is overvalued. Germany is the biggest problem but because it does not control its monetary policy so it cannot meet the three criteria and be labeled a currency manipulator.


But the U.S. softly pushes all those countries on the monitor list to increase their use of fiscal stimulus in an effort to rebalance their massive trade and current account surpluses to rectify the years of the U.S. bearing the burden of the being the market of last resort. The bottom line is that the U.S. is pushing for a massive global stimulus program propagated by those enjoying the greatest benefits of the global economic system.


As the report to Congress said:
The current global configuration of external positions, in which there are pockets of extremely large trade and current account surpluses, is untenable. The U.S. cannot and will not bear the burden of an international trading system that unfairly disadvantages our exports and unfairly advantages the exports of our trading partners through artificially distorted exchange rates. Treasury is committed to aggressively and vigilantly monitoring and combating unfair currency practices.

This is certainly the most incendiary paragraph in the report and while taking a compromising tone in its recommendations the world is being put on notice.

In Mondays Financial Times, U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross enhances the strident tone above in his criticism of IMF Director Lagarde.

Ross called the IMF warnings about U.S. protectionism rubbish. Ross noted that the attacks leveled at the U.S. were just the global elite aiming their criticism on the new administration. With the United States running a $500 billion trade deficit they were clearly aiming at the wrong target. The worlds financial ministers are in Washington at the end of this week for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings.

The Ross remarks will ensure that the meetings will be incendiary and that the Trump administration does not plan to follow the playbook of previous administrations. As Ross said: We are the least protectionist of the major areas. We are far less protectionist than Europe. We are far less protectionist than Japan.We are far less protectionist than China.


The FT article goes on to explain that Ross sees the Bretton Woods system as aiding the imbalances in global trade. He accused Lagarde and other defenders of the current multilateral system of sloganeering of trying to preserve a system that has contributed to the ballooning of the U.S. trade deficit since the 1970s.

This is the Trump agenda of rolling back Pax Americana in its economic form. It seems that President Trump is serious about curtailing the costs of the American Empire.

The Tweeter-in-chief has softened the tone. But the world has been put on notice that the past will not be prelude to the future. An interesting view of Trump is that he is prepared to use the DOLLAR and trade policy to negotiate for international cooperation.

In an afternoon tweet, he said, Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the North Korean problem? For the Donald everything is a trade-off. I advise rethinking any bullish dollar position once the French elections are over.

If the DOLLAR becomes a mere bargaining chip be ready for greatly increased volatility in the global financial markets. Germany will certainly be the most interesting test for the way Donald and Wilbur try to set in motion an effort for global rebalancing.

Comments from Benjaminis: We will now have a NEW ELEMENT to OBSERVE. The old element is the FED. The NEW ELEMENT is the Pro Active Involvement of President Trump and his Economic Team all knowledgeable and wealthy individuals in their own tight who understand the game because they have been part of it.

And Now Another Point Of View With Data To Support It.... Which again is about my finding my own CONSENSUS !!! HARD DATA VS SOFT DATA !!!

https://mishtalk.com/2017/04/16/main...the-us-dollar/



Mainstream Media Joke of the Week: “Trump Tanked the US Dollar”


16SundayApr 2017

Posted by Mish | April 16, 2017 8:31:19 | Economics


Last Wednesday, president Trump commented, “I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me.”

Numerous mainstream media reports were was all over Trump’s statement, attributing major moves in the US dollar to Trump’s statement.

Now that the dust has settled, let’s recap some headlines and look at what really happened on Wednesday, April 12.
April 12 Headlines

 

1. CNBC: Trump tanks the dollar after saying it’s ‘getting too strong’
2. CNN Money: U.S. Dollar Drops Sharply After Trump Calls it ‘Too Strong’
3. USA Today: Trump says ‘Dollar Too Strong,’ Pushes Buck Lower

US Dollar Index
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=488
The US dollar fell from 100.71 to 100.46. That’s a 0.25% move. Allegedly that constitutes “tank” and “sharply lower”.


April 16 US Dollar Index Update
Watching the futures, the index is now at 100.30 as of 8:11 PM central.


If you insist on attributing that follow-through to Trump, the index is down 0.41% since Wednesday, April 12.

Can the President Move the Dollar?
If Trump unexpectedly bombed Germany, Japan, or China there would be a major move of some sort in the dollar.

But other than major unexpected action, the president cannot do much. Jawboning is unlikely to do anything at all, as we have just witnessed.

Actions, Not Words
Given the Fed has all but promised three rate hikes this year, the dollar is highly likely to head south if those hikes do not take place.
Meanwhile, the yield curve is sure acting as if economic weakness, not a strengthening economy is at hand.


Trump has nothing to do with that picture either.

Economy Sputtering
It’s obvious the economy is sputtering unless you happen to believe soft indicators more than hard data.


So, if the dollar falls, and that is highly likely, don’t credit Trump and don’t listen to mainstream media nonsense.


Related Articles

1. GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared
2. Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Decline, First Drop Since February 2016: Reality Check
3. Central Bank Hubris Bubbles to the Surface
4. Debate over the Yield Curve: Is it Steepening or Flattening?
5. Hard-Boiled vs Soft-Boiled Economic Egg Debate: Cracking the Shells

My first quarter GDP estimate sits at 0.4% (see link #1 above). We will have an advance estimate from the BEA on April 28.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock

1. May 15, 2017 10:20pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,375 Posts | Online Now

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

George Orwell's Monetary Policy
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
May 15, 2017 9:25 PM


Via Global Macro Monitor,
“Tightening is Easing”

Since U.S. monetary policy began tightening in December 2015, the Fed has added liquidity to the financial system through interest payments to banks on excess reserves and has reduced its surplus to the Treasury adding to the fiscal deficit. Thus the financial system has had an effective injection of central bank liquidity and a fiscal expansion during a period of monetary tighenting.


The massive increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet after the 2007-08 financial crisis has significantly changed the nature of monetary policy. We’ve noted this in the chart below and several posts. See here and here.


https://macromon.files.wordpress.com...sion.png?w=640
Interest On Excess Reserves (IOER)
Because of the extremely large amount of excess reserves in the banking system – the liability side of balance sheet expansion — the Fed no longer uses traditional monetary policy. The long-standing monetary policy tool prior to the crisis was draining and adding bank reserves through open market operations to control liquidity, the Fed Funds interest rate, and bank credit.


Now, the Fed uses a new tool — interest on excess reserves (IOER) — to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates. That is rather than draining it adds liquidity to the financial system in the form of interest payments to the banking system.
https://macromon.files.wordpress.com...s_rk.png?w=640
We are not certain on how the banks account for this liquidity but suspect they book it as income and either pay it out in dividends or retained earnings to increase their capital. We are also not certain if the Fed sterilizes the IOER.


But the above charts show how irrelevant traditional monetary policy – changing bank reserves to tighten credit in the banking system – has become. The monetary transmission mechanism in most developed economies who have engaged in quantitative easing is now highly dependent on the risk-taking channel in the financial markets. There are many reasons for this, including the rise of non-bank banks.


Lower Surplus Returned to Treasury & Larger Fiscal Deficits
On the fiscal side, the expansionary effect of tighter monetary policy has thus far been di minimus as the IOER was only 0.25 percent up until December 2016. The Fed surplus should shrink further as the IOER has increased 50 bps since the last Fed income statements,


The Federal Reserve Banks’ 2016 estimated net income of $92.7 billion represents a decrease of $7.6 billion from 2015, primarily attributable to a decrease of $2.5 billion in interest income from changes as a result of the composition of securities held in the Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) and an increase of $5.2 billion in interest expense associated with reserve balances held by depository institutions. Net income for 2016 was derived primarily from $111.1 billion in interest income from securities held in the SOMA (U.S. Treasury securities, federal agency and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) mortgage-backed securities, and GSE debt securities). – Federal Reserve, January 2017


As the Fed reduces its balance sheet, its income will shrink more rapidly and add to the U.S. budget deficit. In totality, however, the Fed surplus is rather marginal in the overall federal budget, but we are trying to illustrate what we perceive as a largely unrecognized contradiction of current monetary policy.

Impact of Monetary Policy Tightening
Note how monetary conditions have actually eased since the regime shift in December 2015. The S&P500 has increased 18.2 percent; the 10-year T-Note yield is up only 4.6 bps; the 10 minus 2-year Treasury spread has flattened 26.5 bps; the dollar index is relatively flat, up only 1.09 percent; and commodities (CRB) are up almost 4 1/4 percent.


More impressive, however, is that emerging bonds have rallied almost 8 ½ percent and EM equities are up 26.64 percent. Isn’t this the sector which is supposed to be hit the hardest with tighter money?
https://macromon.files.wordpress.com...y141.png?w=640
Could it be then that money is not tighter, just the price of money has risen marginally from an exceptionally, exceptionally low level to an exceptionally low level?


Reduction of Balance of Sheet
The above analysis leads us to conclude the Fed is kind of painted in a corner, or in a pickle, and would have to raise interest rates to a level too high for their comfort for them to really begin to bite; not to mention what it would do to the federal budget as interest payments on the national debt increase.


Afterall, it was Paul Volcker who said interest rates aren’t rising because they can’t,
Our current debt may be manageable at a time of unprecedentedly low interest rates. But if we let our debt grow, and interest rates normalize, the interest burden alone would choke our budget and squeeze out other essential spending. – Paul Volcker and Pete Peterson, Oct 2016


This may be why the Fed surprised markets by what was thought premature talk of shrinking their balance sheet.

A balance sheet reduction would actually drain liquidity from the financial system, market conditions would most likely tighten through risk aversion, and interest rates could stay lower than they would be with such a large balance sheet. Given asset valuations, the window of a successful soft landing is narrow, however, and this must be done, let us say, “gingerly.”

The downside scenario is if credit really begins to expand (it’s been rather punk lately), the economy accelerates with tight labor markets and inflation takes off. Much of this is up to Congress and fiscal policy dependent.


Conclusion
Monetary policy is a black box and former Fed chair, Alan Greenspan, acknowledged this more than 20 years ago,
There is, regrettably, no simple model of the American economy that can effectively explain the levels of output, employment, and inflation. In principle, there may be some unbelievably complex set of equations that does that. But we have not been able to find them, and do not believe anyone else has either.

Consequently, we are led, of necessity, to employ ad hoc partial models and intensive informative analysis to aid in evaluating economic developments and implementing policy. There is no alternative to this, though we continuously seek to enhance our knowledge to match the ever growing complexity of the world economy. – Alan Greenspan, Decemeber 1996


We concur with Mr. Greenspan and our above analysis is a combination of ad hoc models, imperfect information, which may include wrong information, and best, but calculated guesses.

And even if all our facts are correct, our conclusions may be completely wrong.

To illustrate this, we like to use the story that Abraham Lincoln used to tell to try and persuade juries when he was an Illinois circuit court lawyer.


The story goes that Lawyer Lincoln was worried he had not convinced the jury during the closing argument of a civil case against a railroad. The jurors had gone to lunch to deliberate. Lincoln followed them and interrupted their dessert with a story about a farmer’s son gripped by panic,
“Pa, Pa, the hired man and sis are in the hay mow and she’s lifting up her skirt and he’s letting down his pants and they’re afixin’ to pee on the hay.” “Son, you got your facts absolutely right, but you’re drawing the wrong conclusion.”

The jury ruled in Lincoln’s favor.

The upshot? Monetary policy seems to have become less of a calculation of what is the right amount of reserves in the banking system to maintain a certain Fed Funds interest rate target to more of a guessing game — of how effective the Fed is at gaming the markets and, more important, what is the “tipping point” interest rate where monetary tightening really begins to reduce aggregate demand and slow the economy.

No judgment here on Fed policymakers, however. We recognize they have one tough job.

Finally, thanks to our good friend in Darien for sparking our thinking and originally pointing out the Orwellian nature of current U.S. monetary policy.

Don’t bet the farmer’s ranch on our analysis.

1. Post 4,003
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Sep 9, 2017 9:21am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,376 Posts | Online Now

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: So two things about the above post.

One, it is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS PERIOD.

Two, having a STOP LOSS less than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge ALL FOR FREE until May 31, 2017 and then if you have subscribed to this thread before May 31, 2017, then you will get a FREE LIFETIME PASS to our company website.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.

In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS here on our thread.


Benjaminis

GOOD EVENING !!! Time to get some rest as I was up at 4:00 AM today.

Post your questions and I will reply tomorrow ... Thank You !!!