Far-right gains as Merkel's party wins biggest share in German election

Far-right gains as Merkel's party wins biggest share in German election

From news.sky.com

Angela Merkel is set for a fourth term as Germany's chancellor, according to exit polls. However, the poll suggests the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will enter the national parliament for the first time. Mrs Merkel party took between 32.5 and 33.5%, well ahead of the second placed Social Democratic Party with 20-21%. But in a major shock, the AfD took 13 to 13.5% support in Sunday's vote making it the country's third biggest political force. It is now heading for the opposition benches of the Bundestag lower house which will dramatically boost its visibility and state financing. The ... (full story)

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Sep 25, 2017 8:16am

annoying, all these wingnut cowboys without any knowledge of german policy spreading their nonsense here. make your america great again but don´t think we need your advice. eat some fastfood, watch wrestling and hail your leader.

Drolph

Sep 24, 2017 12:19pm

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This is a far more dramatic result than this article may show. As a German voter I can tell you, that people are stunned based on these results. Its like a political earthquake!
Next to the fact of having a far right party in the Reichstag in the future - which is indeed something that has to be considered - we are FAR from having a working government with these numbers. Merkels CDU is forced to get into a coalition with the greens and the liberals, which is pretty unlikely imho. There are NO other options!

Nobody is talking about it, but a re-election is everything but not unlikely.

Mingary

Sep 24, 2017 2:08pm

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The herd will read "far right gains"
The herd will be short the euro
The herd will lose

Bones

Sep 25, 2017 6:26am

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yea all I mean is sign in

Quoting Guest

Disliked

I'm not trying to post like a guest, Bones. I'm trying to sign in but "guest" keeps coming up. I'm heading to bed but i'll do it again in the morning and get on properly. Not sure what you mean "like that" I was just saying to the sayers that I think we're pretty fresh out of short ideas. That's just what it looks like to me. Ok- tomorrow I sign in as me (hope)!

Ignored

cat

Sep 24, 2017 12:53pm

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Quoting Drolph

Disliked

... people are stunned based on these results. Its like a political earthquake!...

Ignored

Why? Surely a resurgence of the AfD was to be expected given the circumstances?

gat

Sep 25, 2017 7:43am

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Quoting Drolph

Disliked

This is a far more dramatic result than this article may show. As a German voter I can tell you, that people are stunned based on these results. Its like a political earthquake! Next to the fact of having a far right party in the Reichstag in the future - which is indeed something that has to be considered - we are FAR from having a working government with these numbers. Merkels CDU is forced to get into a coalition with the greens and the liberals, which is pretty unlikely imho. There are NO other options! Nobody is talking about it, but a re-election...

Ignored

Or she could acknowledge the citizens thinking that gravitist makes note of saying "Maybe Germans are sick and tired of feeling like strangers in their own country! GO AFD, TAKE YOUR COUNTRY BACK!" Merkel could stop throwing Western civilization under the bus and form a coalition with the right.

Bones

Sep 24, 2017 4:10pm — Edited

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maybe close the gap around tl now
can not afford bear day today or week close under line
of well-defined channel up line
or loss of week before last low

Quoting Bones

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Eu respected the gap exactly, consider bearish from that number down over tl, I don't believe tl but I'm wondering how it breaks {quote} {image}

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Bones

Sep 24, 2017 8:01pm — Edited

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I don't know why you can post as a guest like that
maybe $ heads for 80 not this year though
id look gold monthly today see what its gotta do this week

I don't know for sure but it's a bit up in the air right now...
The election story the markets going to be looking at is the shift too the far right imo
and the complex situ it leaves

FT
"Why are seat numbers still unclear? Although the projections for the voters’ share seem to be stable, it is still not clear how this will translate to seat numbers in the new parliament. The reason for this is that the mathematics needed to work out the result under Germany’s electoral mixed-member proportional electoral system is wonderfully complex. It ensures that the result is proportional between the parties at both the national and state level, and that that the relative size of the 16 states’ seat allocations remain proportional to their populations."

chart clearly shows how the AfD won disengaged non-voters and former CDU-voters.

Quoting Guest

Disliked

"Far more dramatic result," someone (who's short) said earlier. Really? How much drama is there in less than a .2 slip in the euro? And a DXY that can't get above 92.44 to save its life? The dollar is headed to 80, the euro, the aussie, etc. are headed 10 points higher. Easy-peasy. And gap fill on the way by midnight tonight. Sorry but it is.

Ignored

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deltaone

Sep 25, 2017 12:37pm

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Quoting Bones

Disliked

I don't know why you can post as a guest like that maybe $ heads for 80 not this year though id look gold monthly today see what its gotta do this week I don't know for sure but it's a bit up in the air right now... The election story the markets going to be looking at is the shift too the far right imo and the complex situ it leaves FT "Why are seat numbers still unclear? Although the projections for the votersâ€™ share seem to be stable, it is still not clear how this will translate to seat numbers in the new parliament. The reason for this...

Ignored

this is an outstanding example how an outsider should handle this theme:

no "advice", just stating facts, reasoning with statistical data in a clear picture. it shows that the fdp is the only party which gained from cdu without losing to afd.

by far the best post on this subject outside "Deutschland"

gravitist

Sep 24, 2017 4:11pm

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Maybe Germans are sick and tired of feeling like strangers in their own country! GO AFD, TAKE YOUR COUNTRY BACK!

Drolph

Sep 24, 2017 5:10pm

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Quoting Bones

Disliked

can they be official opposition? {quote}

Ignored

No. All other democratic parties stand together to avoid an AfD leadership part in the opposition.

Noor16

Sep 24, 2017 2:55pm

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EU start with 30-35 pips down side GAp

Bones

Sep 24, 2017 3:58pm

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not good news ,since Merkle down >right up >shows common western shift considering we are talking Germany and from what I read that right is way further than UK common right
EU has taken it's tl with the gap w1 and has to open bullish any hope

Bones

Sep 24, 2017 4:25pm

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can they be official opposition?

Quoting c0ldsun

Disliked

We should not create the impression that with the winning of the Afd major changes will happen with German/EU politics. They got 13% (13% too much), but 87% voted for other parties. So for financial market everything stays the same.

Ignored

deltaone

Sep 24, 2017 5:04pm

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Quoting gravitist

Disliked

Maybe Germans are sick and tired of feeling like strangers in their own country! GO AFD, TAKE YOUR COUNTRY BACK!

Ignored

Kriech zurück in das Loch, aus dem Du gekommen bist.

Drolph

Sep 24, 2017 1:57pm

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Quoting cat

Disliked

{quote} Why? Surely a resurgence of the AfD was to be expected given the circumstances?

Ignored

But definetely not with these numbers immediately. Forecasts were about 9-10%. But the AfD is not the major problem.
It is indeed Merkels problem of forming a working coalition. Comparing the situation in the USA with the current problem is not sufficient, it is pretty much disqualifying.

A big uncertainty arose, as especially the liberals are not afraid of a re-election because Merkels CDU would be the one who risks to loose even more than she already did now. Talks will be extremely difficult. The first great public discussion with ALL the heads of each party just got totally nuts ... a really promising sign.

Merkel is not the big respresentative for a growing part of Germanys population anymore. Matter of fact. Market didnt realize that until now. Sure. As it isnt fully recognized on a national scale at the moment..

Drolph

Sep 24, 2017 2:34pm

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Quoting c0ldsun

Disliked

{quote} Don't talk BS.. AFD has zero influence on German and EU politics.

Ignored

Read carefully!

I blamed the critical coalition dilemma as major problem. Currently the problem is not even existent as the "old" government is still in place. But it HAS to replaced.

AfD has NOTHING to do with coalition talks. It is just the CDU, FDP (liberals) and greens.

bluesoul

Sep 24, 2017 3:31pm

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Quoting Don96

Disliked

{quote} lol,the euro gapped down

Ignored

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

The herd will read "far right gains" The herd will be short the euro The herd will lose

Ignored

1.1900 buy here if anyone can buy.

deltaone

Sep 24, 2017 5:14pm

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Quoting Bones

Disliked

can they be official opposition? {quote}

Ignored

that will be the part of the spd.

Exodus

Sep 24, 2017 1:18pm

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I really believed Merkel's support would wither somewhat, seems it is intact!

Exodus

Sep 25, 2017 3:32am

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Quoting 4xNewGuy

Disliked

{quote} People who don't speak German will always vote for free money.

Ignored

.....didn't realise that people who don't speak German had a vote.

Don96

Sep 24, 2017 2:14pm

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Quoting Mingary

Disliked

The herd will read "far right gains" The herd will be short the euro The herd will lose

Ignored

lol,the euro gapped down

Drolph

Sep 25, 2017 4:50am

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Well, the political uncertainty, as forecasted yesterday in the first comment, is starting to weigh on the Euro.

JakubSzalaFX

Sep 24, 2017 12:55pm

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Quoting cat

Disliked

{quote} Why? Surely a resurgence of the AfD was to be expected given the circumstances?

Ignored

Jamaican coalition is rather negative for the EU.

JakubSzalaFX

Sep 24, 2017 1:50pm

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Quoting althar

Disliked

$EURUSD at 1.1957 ATM, 10 pips above friday close.

Ignored

Check xe.com

4xNewGuy

Sep 25, 2017 12:10am

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Quoting Exodus

Disliked

I really believed Merkel's support would wither somewhat, seems it is intact!

Ignored

People who don't speak German will always vote for free money.

fxpsychic

Sep 24, 2017 3:30pm

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The Market Makers for the Euro are looking at the big Monthly Bear Supply candle that opened Jan 1 2015 and thinking, "Holy Sh*t! Time to short this thing." And, they have. Over 200 pip 3xs now. This is looking more and more like a longer time Triple Top to me, and I say that strictly on technicals. Smart Money looks like it's unloading the longs at every rise in price. That big 4H candle was back filled last week right into another supply zone. Politics aside, I still like the short side of the Eur/Usd. And, if we get an Equities correction soon, the Eur/Jpy could dump lower still.

althar

Sep 24, 2017 1:24pm — Edited

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$EURUSD at 1.1957 ATM, 10 pips above friday close.

Edit:
Now at 1.1919. Things are moving

digit1288

Sep 24, 2017 12:48pm

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Sounds to me like the EUR is going to gap down when the opening bell sounds

Sep 24, 2017 4:14pm

Gap down it is then

Sep 24, 2017 2:57pm

Quoting digit1288

Disliked

Sounds to me like the EUR is going to gap down when the opening bell sounds

Ignored

looks like 30 pip down.

safdarhashmi

Sep 24, 2017 3:27pm

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It's already gap downd..1.1901

BaIdur

Sep 24, 2017 2:07pm

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Quoting Truth-

Disliked

Article is all about percentage of popular vote and not distribution of the 630 seats in the Bundestag. After the election of President Trump people should realize that popular vote is meaningless. What is the distribution of actual legislative power? It remains as before, Chancellor Merkel had a minority government before the election, and she has a minority government afterwards. The shifting around of alliances will evolve and compromises will be made by those who truly want their view pressed into law rather than seeking headlines by screaming...

Ignored

Merkel never had a minority government in the last twelve years, my friend. Just now things have changed as Schulz ruled out another great coalition right after the election outcome.
Merkel has to form a (rather weak) coalition with FDP and Green party to stay in office.

c0ldsun

Sep 24, 2017 2:23pm

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Quoting Drolph

Disliked

This is a far more dramatic result than this article may show. As a German voter I can tell you, that people are stunned based on these results. Its like a political earthquake! Next to the fact of having a far right party in the Reichstag in the future - which is indeed something that has to be considered - we are FAR from having a working government with these numbers. Merkels CDU is forced to get into a coalition with the greens and the liberals, which is pretty unlikely imho. There are NO other options! Nobody is talking about it, but a re-election...

Ignored

Don't talk BS.. AFD has zero influence on German and EU politics.

c0ldsun

Sep 24, 2017 3:16pm

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We should not create the impression that with the winning of the Afd major changes will happen with German/EU politics. They got 13% (13% too much), but 87% voted for other parties. So for financial market everything stays the same.

Magnitude

Sep 24, 2017 3:28pm

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Quoting Drolph

Disliked

This is a far more dramatic result than this article may show. As a German voter I can tell you, that people are stunned based on these results. Its like a political earthquake! Next to the fact of having a far right party in the Reichstag in the future - which is indeed something that has to be considered - we are FAR from having a working government with these numbers. Merkels CDU is forced to get into a coalition with the greens and the liberals, which is pretty unlikely imho. There are NO other options! Nobody is talking about it, but a re-election...

Ignored

Agree with you, this might be CDU meltdown, but I trust in Ms Merkel to converge with what reality lies ahead, she is not, like some, trying birdies blindfolded on a golf course, she is scientifically calculating risks for Germany and the world beyond, her background speaks for itself. Just wish the best for Germany and Europe in the face of a lack of goodwill from many other world leader.

Elijahtmusa

Sep 24, 2017 12:36pm

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What impact does it have on the Euro

PuttPutt4x

Sep 24, 2017 12:51pm

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Quoting digit1288

Disliked

Sounds to me like the EUR is going to gap down when the opening bell sounds

Ignored

We will have to wait and see but it is anyone's guess at this point.

Trader#AEFC

Sep 24, 2017 1:42pm

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It is a really bad outcome for both the big parties in Germany. Both lost 5 - 8 %. In fact the government has been dismissed. Merkel has to form a weak coalition with yellow and green to stay in office.

Trader#6B48

Sep 24, 2017 2:04pm

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I believe we'll have a regular EUR/USD open. It's possible even toward a gap-up, with Merkel's easy win and the socialist's easy second place. Also there's too much upward pressure on gold coming from NK's hydrogen bomb threat (supposed to be tested this week), which will only injure the dollar further. Certainly the market has learned to shrug off the incessant banter between US/NK but such banter over the past 48 hours has become a true threat, and will cause a threat-level response from US. And lest we forget the coming Macron speech Tuesday aimed at tightening further the Euro (which Merkel also wants), not to mention the rattling in the US about everything from NFL players being unpatriotic, police shootings, and incessant sanctioning of other countries that they're all starting to discuss never using the dollar again. I doubt the euro will fall again in any near future, for better or worse. Plus, hello? Strong Uptrend. Does anyone pay attention to the charts anymore?

BaIdur

Sep 24, 2017 2:11pm

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Altogether the election is a big mess...AFD third strongest party CDU and SPD both lost >5%....
This is not what financial markets want to see in the center of Europe...

BaIdur

Sep 24, 2017 2:13pm

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Quoting Mingary

Disliked

The herd will read "far right gains" The herd will be short the euro The herd will lose

Ignored

The herd will have to wake up finally

zaman22

Sep 24, 2017 2:25pm

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eurousd 1.1965 now

Trader#6B48

Sep 24, 2017 2:31pm

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It is a bit funny to listen to us. Those in the midst of shorting the Euro "Cannot believe this far-right routing of Merkel! World out of control! Gap-down coming immediately!" And those of us long the Euro are like, "strong chart uptrend, no big deal Germany, you really want dollars from a country (the US) in such a mess every which way we turn, and NK about to blow up the world?" It's all so pretend sometimes.

I'm long the Euro (and proud of it). I am a chartist and trend trader first and foremost, and I simply believe the election gave the bulls enough of what they wanted that we'll continue to see the uptrend take place.

patches

Sep 24, 2017 5:21pm

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Here comes gap fill, followed by euro UP

Trader#6B48

Sep 24, 2017 6:49pm

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"Far more dramatic result," someone (who's short) said earlier. Really? How much drama is there in less than a .2 slip in the euro? And a DXY that can't get above 92.44 to save its life? The dollar is headed to 80, the euro, the aussie, etc. are headed 10 points higher. Easy-peasy. And gap fill on the way by midnight tonight. Sorry but it is.

Trader#6B48

Sep 24, 2017 8:31pm

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I'm not trying to post like a guest, Bones. I'm trying to sign in but "guest" keeps coming up. I'm heading to bed but i'll do it again in the morning and get on properly. Not sure what you mean "like that" I was just saying to the sayers that I think we're pretty fresh out of short ideas. That's just what it looks like to me. Ok- tomorrow I sign in as me (hope)!