A huge human bias exists that is clearly evident on this forum and that is .....hindsight bias. Everywhere I look traders are convinced they can predict an extremely complex outcome. Our propensity to need determinism clouds the rational mind and makes us feel that we can predict the future.
If we were forced to travel into some uncharted complex environment like an alien planet where the rules of the game were different .....clearly most of us would be doomed as we like to think that we can predict uncertainty. We come into conflict with this bias as soon as we are trading on the right hand edge of the chart into an uncertain future.
As a kid, I used to try and catch my shadow. As a trader, that is the best we can do.....that is simply 'follow the price'. It simply doesn't need to be anything more complicated than that.
Your article posted yesterday simply confirms with authority that predictions are pointless.
*rant off*
Time for some Taleb
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For the long drive................
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