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- Jairo replied Aug 13, 2020
This is the apreadsheet I am using now - for whatever it is worth. It is still a work in progress but it has been useful for me. Trading guidelines are explained in the Rules tab. Disclaimers: (1) Kelly is just a reference - too shaky to be used in ...
- Jairo replied Jun 25, 2018
Hi elqflinchy, I stopped using double down (martingale) and cleaned the spreadsheet from it. Updated files are attached (English/Portuguese mixed, lol). Results still a bit disappointing, but Kelly with low "aggressiveness" keeps me from ...
- Jairo replied Feb 9, 2017
The risk balance mechanism is working as it should. Overshooting a bit maybe, but this may be compensated by the "aggressiveness" variable. There was a copy/paste error in some cells, now corrected. The spreadsheet is fully operational. Three ...
- Jairo replied Feb 4, 2017
Many improvements were made to the risk balance mechanism. Estimated probabilities look realistic now. Got rid of some fancy numbers.
- Jairo replied Jan 30, 2017
Market pays tithing for hell rides (each 1% drawdown is returning close to 0.1% extra on average). Hope it doesn't let me head down stuck in the 9th circle someday, lol. "Tithe chart" improved (unnamed scatter chart on DDCy sheet). Cycle, daily, ...
- Jairo replied Jan 26, 2017
The simpler the better. A chart now shows the evolution of payoff with increased leverage (and decreased stop out). At some point a balance should be reached (shall it?). The question is: "Which leverage should I use to get maximum payoff - if any?" ...
- Jairo replied Jan 25, 2017
Many improvements were made to the "toolkit", one affecting the Monte Carlo spreadsheet, updated. Main payoff figure is now being estimated corretly. Kelly % is definitely a fantasy. Maximum leverage implemented. Next step: reduce stop out to 25%. ...
- Jairo replied Jan 24, 2017
Attached here is the best simple explanation of Kelly Criterion I have seen so far.
- Jairo replied Jan 12, 2017
Discovered some hidden errors in the spreadsheets. Again. Will this ever end? I hope so. But the main part (exits) is working fine. Balancing risk with performance is a tricky task. Still not where it should be, but I will get there. Kelly is very ...
- Jairo replied Jan 9, 2017
Fixed some broken references in formulas. Not enough data yet to start (and test) the risk balancing mechanism. Maybe in a few sessions - if I can keep drawdown low.
- Jairo replied Jan 2, 2017
Fixed an error in the Starting Balance automatic update. Just a reminder: this "toolkit" is not a recommendation to use martingale, which is very dangerous. If you have an edge, please stick with it and don't play with fire. If you don't have, it ...
- Jairo replied Jan 1, 2017
A slightly improved version of my Toolbox is here. Got rid of some useless stuff, corrected some minor errors and added a few resources. The Q3 cell in the Open sheet, intended to monitor drawdown and hold the biggest value experienced during the ...
- Jairo replied Dec 31, 2016
Here is an updated version of the spreadsheet. I am using it to trade, to keep record of trades and to analyse results. Monte Carlo Simulation was put in a separate file but it takes data from the main spreadsheet, named Toolbox. There is still some ...
- Jairo replied Aug 31, 2012
Better version — Here is a better (simplified) version of the spreadsheet. Got rid of some useless stuff.
- Jairo replied Jan 6, 2012
Kelly spreadsheet — Hi ggerhardt, Here is the latest version of the spreadsheet (please see attachment). It is a work in progress. I use yellow cells to input data. Best regards, Jairo.
- Jairo replied Dec 2, 2008
Hi Leighsww, I am having a hard time to control the excitement. Attached is a typical statement of my little baby trades (not intended as proof). I know there are many things yet to be done. There are errors, ridiculous trades, missing ones, but it ...
- Jairo replied Jul 28, 2008
Here is my margin spreadsheet. See if it fits your needs. It is valid only for EURUSD. For other pairs the G column (Equity) gets distorted. To correct this it would be necessary to take the "pip value" into account. This is a task I never put my ...
- Jairo replied Jul 19, 2008
Hi Leighsww, Happy to see you back again, too. It will be interesting to see a long term rescue. But ... - it will be a hindsight exercise; - fti does not recommend it. He said that in his first reply to me. At first I did not agree ...
- Jairo replied Feb 1, 2008
Calculating rescue — Hi, Here is an Excel spreadsheet to calculate rescue. Just fill in the yellow cells (up to 8 levels - I recommend not to use them all ) and the breakeven level will show up in the green cells. It will also show each ...
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