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- davidb replied Oct 20, 2017
OK, this made my brain hurt to start with, but I got there in the end. The maths is correct for what you are doing but what you are doing is incorrect in that you are not comparing like with like. In the first transaction you buy then sell and ...
- davidb replied Jan 16, 2017
IMHO there is insufficient data to give a meaningful response. Why? R:R on its own is meaningless (is that your fallacy?), it needs to be tied to a success rate to give an expectancy. The first example needs a hit rate of 20% to break even and the ...
- davidb replied Nov 11, 2016
Two eyes, one brain. One eye is OK but the brain is non-negotiable!
- davidb replied Jun 18, 2016
That's great, in that case you should be able to calculate the win/loss ratio from your backtest which then gives you the feed into Chris's formula and out pops the answer you want. Job done!! When you do get the answer please post it, I'd be ...
- davidb replied Jun 18, 2016
I probably should not have have added the caveats as it detracts from my main point namely that odds and RR are not necessarily equal. As I understand it you are deriving a number by saying that an RR of 1:6 will be achieved once every seven times ...
- davidb replied Jun 17, 2016
This does make one assumption namely that an R:R of 1:6 is six times less likely than an R:R of 1:1. That's quite a big leap to make without any supporting evidence. The only way you can get a reasonable idea is from knowing the actual win/loss ...
- davidb replied Jan 15, 2016
It was expected that Mario Draghi was going to unveil a major package certainly more than he did. This expectation had already been priced into the Euro. When the expectation was not fulfilled prices rose to reflect the new reality.
- davidb replied Sep 14, 2015
The Australian Government web site url gives the release of minutes as Tuesday 15th at 11:30am This translates to Monday 14th at 21:30 EDT so FF is correct. Perhaps you were taking the release as Monday Australian time?
- davidb replied Apr 22, 2015
Yes, you can no longer log in - you get a 'sorry' message and a link to support pages for further information which does not work.
- davidb replied Jul 11, 2014
What you are missing is half the transaction. Yes you receive 2.5% for buying the AUD but you are also selling the NZD for which you are charged 3.25% so you are down 0.75% overall. It's called the carry trade and if you want to pursue it you need ...
- davidb replied Nov 25, 2013
The idea of single candle charts piqued my curiosity as I had not come across it before so after my first post I did half a dozen paper trades. The results were four winners and two losers for a grand profit of +1.0 pips. Now, while I like short ...
- davidb replied Nov 25, 2013
The only software you need is your charting software. Open four chart windows, one for each pair. Size them sort of tall and thin. Arrange side by side. Zoom in each one so it only shows the current candle. That's it.The strategy is to use the ...
- davidb replied Nov 22, 2013
The principle seems quite straightforward, strength vs. weakness. In the example the USD/CHF is moving up and the GU heading down all indicating USD strength. Because the EG is up, the EUR is stronger than the GBP so he shorts the GU grabs a few ...
- davidb replied Oct 4, 2013
The short answer is if you are consistently profitable by doing so. To be profitable with such a R:R means you have to have a very high success rate. If you could have 90% of your trades hit TP then I guess you (and I) would be very happy with a R:R ...
- davidb replied Aug 19, 2013
I would suggest forgetting the idea of some 'look back' time like 3 or 5 days, it really has little meaning as trends can develop quickly or very slowly. Also bear in mind that on different time scales you will often see trends in opposing ...
- davidb replied Jul 30, 2013
I must admit this is what I've always felt, that it was a largely ill-defined and unsubstantiated number. But as is bandied about so often (a new thread about it commenced only yesterday) I did start to wonder if there was any basis for it, for ...
- davidb replied Jul 29, 2013
Why not the traditional approach? Place your stop just below the previous low if going long or just above the previous high if short.
- davidb replied Jul 11, 2013
Are you sure this is a 30M EUR/USD chart? It's nothing like the one on my screen and I've cross-referenced that against another provider and they match.
- davidb replied Jul 5, 2013
Yes, but the vast majority of those pips are due to announcements first by the BOE and then the ECB and have nothing to do with correlation failures.
- davidb replied Feb 6, 2013
Really, you've identified your problem in the diagram in your first post. You follow your strategy, win, change it and everything goes downhill from there. So stick to the strategy. Easy to say, difficult to do. I found the attachment in this post ...