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- yieldjunkie commented Nov 9, 2023
See here: url
- yieldjunkie replied Oct 15, 2023
Back to highlight a few things. The following points from my last post remain relevant: Further Thoughts on Sea Change, memo from Howard Marks which is a continuation of the one noted here. Sadly was made public 4.5 months after it's publish date. I ...
- yieldjunkie commented Sep 27, 2023
This is a ridiculously underresearched comment. Go look at his track record, you might be impressed: url I hope you put more effort than this into your trades.
- yieldjunkie commented Sep 15, 2023
Sometimes things just don't make sense, but you're also missing a key component here buddy.. What the market expected was going to happen... How does my expectation differ from the consensus. See "second-level thinking" in this classic: url
- yieldjunkie replied May 26, 2023
I think the most relevant, and mispriced, risk right now from the market's point of view is that US inflation accelerates. I'll outline the case for this below: Fed funds futures have been, to my continued shock, pricing in cuts by year end for ...
- yieldjunkie replied May 12, 2023
Not many posts because there still isn't much to say. I came back here to make a note of something that recently occurred to me related to the "bull case" for risk. A material shift in behavior and composition of market participants could be to ...
- yieldjunkie commented Apr 25, 2023
Well.. that is awfully blunt
- yieldjunkie commented Mar 12, 2023
WOAH! Failure and save visible across no more than three trading days. Wild stuff
- yieldjunkie replied Dec 15, 2022
Posting this here for reference: url image
- yieldjunkie commented Oct 11, 2022
Unanchored? FOMC members often say that they take into considerations surveys. I wonder if we'll see mention of this in the next few FOMC meeting minutes.. or if they continue to blather "inflation expectations are well-anchored."
- yieldjunkie commented Oct 11, 2022
Ouch. The combination of a few of these seems like the real problem, mentioned here. Like EM x China.. via Belt and Road. Seems like alot to manage alongside the property issues, which IMF also mentions, and severely moderating growth.
- yieldjunkie commented Oct 10, 2022
she is desperate to defend her bag! The fed giveth and the fed taketh away! Her conveniently suggested policy is a real knee-slapper.
- yieldjunkie replied Oct 6, 2022
There isn't much to say about the macro outlook that hasn't already been said. There is currently no reason for the US Fed to slow tightening, and the amount of global tightening is the most dramatic and ubiquitous move we have seen in modern ...
- yieldjunkie commented Oct 5, 2022
How embarrassing
- yieldjunkie replied Oct 5, 2022
Good luck! An enrollment link was sent to the email I used in prior challenges - this is probably the easiest way to sign-up. Did you end up making it in? Unfortunately I got caught-up with work and missed the start date . This ...
- yieldjunkie replied Sep 16, 2022
Rather than writing a long update on my views of the current state of macro, I'll post this video. url
- yieldjunkie replied Sep 15, 2022
It's back! This time the challenge is limited to Micro Bitcoin and Micro Ether futures - Trep's time to shine url
- yieldjunkie replied Jun 15, 2022
Wrong! I was wrong to lean against what the market was aggressively pricing in. Powell mentioned in the presser that last week's Umich survey data paired with CPI (presumably m/m) were factored into the decision. The new rate outlook bodes well ...
- yieldjunkie replied Jun 14, 2022
I still don't expect more than +50bps at this week's meeting, but after thinking on this.. it could be the case that the fed is seeing significantly more job losses in the coming weeks than what the market expects, which would limit their timeframe ...
- yieldjunkie replied Jun 13, 2022
Seeing several pieces fall into place over the past week: Consumer Credit: still growing at near-ATH amounts, total revolving credit outstanding at ATHs US CPI: higher than expected and, finally.. Consumer Sentiment: record low Ultimately the Fed is ...